The agricultural link: How environmental deterioration could disrupt economic progress

Worldwatch Paper

Volumn , Issue 136, 1997, Pages

  Brown, Lester R ^a  

^a NONE

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EID: 0343043305     PISSN: 02708019     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: None     Document Type: Article

References (158)

1. World Bank, Food Security for the World, statement prepared for the World Food Summit by the World Bank, 12 November 1996. For useful discussions of the connection between environmental degradation and political stability, see Thomas F. Homer-Dixon, Jeffrey H. Boutwell, and George W. Rathjens, "Environmental Change and Violent Conflict," Scientific American, February 1993, and Robert D. Kaplan, "The Coming Anarchy," Atlantic Monthly, February 1994.
2. World Bank, Food Security for the World, statement prepared for the World Food Summit by the World Bank, 12 November 1996. For useful discussions of the connection between environmental degradation and political stability, see Thomas F. Homer-Dixon, Jeffrey H. Boutwell, and George W. Rathjens, "Environmental Change and Violent Conflict," Scientific American, February 1993, and Robert D. Kaplan, "The Coming Anarchy," Atlantic Monthly, February 1994.
3. World Bank, Food Security for the World, statement prepared for the World Food Summit by the World Bank, 12 November 1996. For useful discussions of the connection between environmental degradation and political stability, see Thomas F. Homer-Dixon, Jeffrey H. Boutwell, and George W. Rathjens, "Environmental Change and Violent Conflict," Scientific American, February 1993, and Robert D. Kaplan, "The Coming Anarchy," Atlantic Monthly, February 1994.
4. Caroline Southey, "EU Puts New Curbs on Fishing," Financial Times, 16 April 1997; grain data from U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Production, Supply, and Distribution, electronic database, Washington, DC, updated February 1997.
5. Caroline Southey, "EU Puts New Curbs on Fishing," Financial Times, 16 April 1997; grain data from U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Production, Supply, and Distribution, electronic database, Washington, DC, updated February 1997.
6. Kazakstan data from U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), The State of Food and Agriculture 1995, FAO Agricultural Series No. 28 (Rome: 1995); Brazil's grain data from USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS), Grain: World Markets and Trade (Washington, DC: April 1997).
7. Kazakstan data from U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), The State of Food and Agriculture 1995, FAO Agricultural Series No. 28 (Rome: 1995); Brazil's grain data from USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS), Grain: World Markets and Trade (Washington, DC: April 1997).
8. U.S. Bureau of the Census, International Data Base, electronic database, Suitland, MD, 15 May 1996; 800 million figure from World Bank, op. cit. note 1.
9. Susan Cotts Watkins and Jane Menken, "Famines in Historical Perspective," Population and Development Review, December 1985.
10. Oceanic fish catch from FAO, Yearbook of Fishery Statistics: Catches and Landings (Rome: 1967-91); 1950-59 grain data from USDA, "World Grain Database," unpublished printout, Washington, DC, 1991; 1960-90 grain data from USDA, op. cit. note 2; current grain data from USDA, FAS, World Agricultural Production (Washington, DC: April 1997).
11. Oceanic fish catch from FAO, Yearbook of Fishery Statistics: Catches and Landings (Rome: 1967-91); 1950-59 grain data from USDA, "World Grain Database," unpublished printout, Washington, DC, 1991; 1960-90 grain data from USDA, op. cit. note 2; current grain data from USDA, FAS, World Agricultural Production (Washington, DC: April 1997).
12. Oceanic fish catch from FAO, Yearbook of Fishery Statistics: Catches and Landings (Rome: 1967-91); 1950-59 grain data from USDA, "World Grain Database," unpublished printout, Washington, DC, 1991; 1960-90 grain data from USDA, op. cit. note 2; current grain data from USDA, FAS, World Agricultural Production (Washington, DC: April 1997).
13. Information on idled cropland from K.F. Isherwood and K.G. Soh, "Short Term Prospects for World Agriculture and Fertilizer Use," presented at 21st Enlarged Council Meeting, International Fertilizer Industry Association, Paris, 15-17 November 1995, and from USDA, FAS, World Agricultural Production (Washington, DC: October 1995); data on world carryover stocks of grain from USDA, op. cit. note 2, and USDA, FAS, Grain: World Markets and Trade (Washington, DC: July 1997).
14. Information on idled cropland from K.F. Isherwood and K.G. Soh, "Short Term Prospects for World Agriculture and Fertilizer Use," presented at 21st Enlarged Council Meeting, International Fertilizer Industry Association, Paris, 15-17 November 1995, and from USDA, FAS, World Agricultural Production (Washington, DC: October 1995); data on world carryover stocks of grain from USDA, op. cit. note 2, and USDA, FAS, Grain: World Markets and Trade (Washington, DC: July 1997).
15. Information on idled cropland from K.F. Isherwood and K.G. Soh, "Short Term Prospects for World Agriculture and Fertilizer Use," presented at 21st Enlarged Council Meeting, International Fertilizer Industry Association, Paris, 15-17 November 1995, and from USDA, FAS, World Agricultural Production (Washington, DC: October 1995); data on world carryover stocks of grain from USDA, op. cit. note 2, and USDA, FAS, Grain: World Markets and Trade (Washington, DC: July 1997).
16. "Grain Prices Continue to Climb; Official Urges Calmer Trading," New York Times, 26 April 1996; "Prices for Wheat and Corn Drop on Hopes for Improved Harvests," New York Times, 30 April 1996; "Futures Prices," Wall Street Journal, various editions.
17. "Grain Prices Continue to Climb; Official Urges Calmer Trading," New York Times, 26 April 1996; "Prices for Wheat and Corn Drop on Hopes for Improved Harvests," New York Times, 30 April 1996; "Futures Prices," Wall Street Journal, various editions.
18. "Grain Prices Continue to Climb; Official Urges Calmer Trading," New York Times, 26 April 1996; "Prices for Wheat and Corn Drop on Hopes for Improved Harvests," New York Times, 30 April 1996; "Futures Prices," Wall Street Journal, various editions.
19. Serge Schmemann, "In Jordan, Bread-Price Protests Signal Deep Anger," New York Times, 21 August 1996.
20. Lester R. Brown, Who Will Feed China? Wake-Up Call for a Small Planet (New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 1995); USDA, op. cit. note 2; Jack A. Goldstone, "The Coming Chinese Collapse," Foreign Policy, Summer 1995.
21. Lester R. Brown, Who Will Feed China? Wake-Up Call for a Small Planet (New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 1995); USDA, op. cit. note 2; Jack A. Goldstone, "The Coming Chinese Collapse," Foreign Policy, Summer 1995.
22. Bureau of the Census, op. cit. note 4; USDA, op. cit. note 3.
23. International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Economic Outlook, October 1996 (Washington, DC: 1996); Bureau of the Census, op. cit. note 4; USDA, op. cit. note 2; USDA, FAS, Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade (Washington, DC: October 1995).
24. International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Economic Outlook, October 1996 (Washington, DC: 1996); Bureau of the Census, op. cit. note 4; USDA, op. cit. note 2; USDA, FAS, Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade (Washington, DC: October 1995).
25. Grain-to-beef conversion ratio based on Allen Baker, Feed Situation and Outlook Staff, Economic Research Service (ERS), USDA, Washington, DC, discussion with author, 27 April 1992; grain-to-pork conversion from Leland Southard, Livestock and Poultry Situation and Outlook Staff, ERS, USDA, Washington, DC, discussion with author, 27 April 1992; egg conversion ratios from Alan B. Durning and Holly B. Brough, Taking Stock: Animal Farming and the Environment, Worldwatch Paper 103 (Washington, DC: Worldwatch Institute, July 1991); grain-to-poultry ratio derived from Robert V. Bishop et al., The World Poultry Market - Government Intervention and Multilateral Policy Reform (Washington, DC: USDA, 1990).
26. Grain-to-beef conversion ratio based on Allen Baker, Feed Situation and Outlook Staff, Economic Research Service (ERS), USDA, Washington, DC, discussion with author, 27 April 1992; grain-to-pork conversion from Leland Southard, Livestock and Poultry Situation and Outlook Staff, ERS, USDA, Washington, DC, discussion with author, 27 April 1992; egg conversion ratios from Alan B. Durning and Holly B. Brough, Taking Stock: Animal Farming and the Environment, Worldwatch Paper 103 (Washington, DC: Worldwatch Institute, July 1991); grain-to-poultry ratio derived from Robert V. Bishop et al., The World Poultry Market - Government Intervention and Multilateral Policy Reform (Washington, DC: USDA, 1990).
27. Seafood data from FAO, op. cit. note 6; 1950-84 beef and pork data from FAO, 1948-1985 World Crop and Livestock Statistics (Rome: 1987); 1985-90 beef and pork data from FAO, FAO Production Yearbooks 1988-1991 (Rome: 1991-1993); recent growth in beef and pork from USDA, FAS, Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade (Washington, DC: October 1996).
28. Seafood data from FAO, op. cit. note 6; 1950-84 beef and pork data from FAO, 1948-1985 World Crop and Livestock Statistics (Rome: 1987); 1985-90 beef and pork data from FAO, FAO Production Yearbooks 1988-1991 (Rome: 1991-1993); recent growth in beef and pork from USDA, FAS, Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade (Washington, DC: October 1996).
29. Seafood data from FAO, op. cit. note 6; 1950-84 beef and pork data from FAO, 1948-1985 World Crop and Livestock Statistics (Rome: 1987); 1985-90 beef and pork data from FAO, FAO Production Yearbooks 1988-1991 (Rome: 1991-1993); recent growth in beef and pork from USDA, FAS, Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade (Washington, DC: October 1996).
30. Poultry, pork, mutton, and beef data from FAO, FAO Production Yearbooks (Rome: various years), and from USDA, op. cit. note 14; egg and cheese data from FAO, "FAOSTAT DATA," ; aquaculture data from FAO, Aquaculture Production Statistics, 1985-1994, FAO Fisheries Circular No. 815, Rev. 8 (Rome: 1996), and from Maurizio Perotti, fishery statistician, Fishery Information, Data, and Statistics Unit (FIDI), Fisheries Department, FAO, Rome, letter to Worldwatch, 8 November 1996.
31. Poultry, pork, mutton, and beef data from FAO, FAO Production Yearbooks (Rome: various years), and from USDA, op. cit. note 14; egg and cheese data from FAO, "FAOSTAT DATA," ; aquaculture data from FAO, Aquaculture Production Statistics, 1985-1994, FAO Fisheries Circular No. 815, Rev. 8 (Rome: 1996), and from Maurizio Perotti, fishery statistician, Fishery Information, Data, and Statistics Unit (FIDI), Fisheries Department, FAO, Rome, letter to Worldwatch, 8 November 1996.
32. Poultry, pork, mutton, and beef data from FAO, FAO Production Yearbooks (Rome: various years), and from USDA, op. cit. note 14; egg and cheese data from FAO, "FAOSTAT DATA," ; aquaculture data from FAO, Aquaculture Production Statistics, 1985-1994, FAO Fisheries Circular No. 815, Rev. 8 (Rome: 1996), and from Maurizio Perotti, fishery statistician, Fishery Information, Data, and Statistics Unit (FIDI), Fisheries Department, FAO, Rome, letter to Worldwatch, 8 November 1996.
33. USDA, op. cit. note 14; FAO, "FAOSTAT DATA," op. cit. note 15.
34. United Nations, The Future Growth of World Population, Population Studies No. 28 (New York: 1958); IMF, op. cit. note 12.
35. IMF, op. cit. note 12; Bureau of the Census, op. cit. note 4; feed data from USDA, op. cit. note 2, and from USDA, FAS, Grain: World Markets and Trade (Washington, DC: May 1997).
36. IMF, op. cit. note 12; broiler and milk data from USDA, op. cit. note 14; egg data from FAO, "FAOSTAT DATA", op. cit. note 15; population data from Bureau of the Census, op. cit. note 4; feed grain data from USDA, op. cit. note 2, and from USDA, op. cit. note 3.
37. USDA, op. cit. note 14.
38. USDA, op. cit. note 2; USDA, op. cit. note 3.
39. FAO, op. cit. note 6; Perotti, op. cit. note 15; Bureau of the Census, op. cit. note 4.
40. FAO, op. cit. note 6; USDA, op. cit. note 14.
41. FAO, op. cit. note 6; Bishop et al., op. cit. note 13.
42. USDA, unpublished printout, op. cit. note 6; USDA, op. cit. note 2.
43. USDA, unpublished printout, op cit. note 6; USDA, op. cit. note 2; recent data from USDA; op. cit. note 3; Bureau of the Census, op. cit. note 4.
44. USDA, op. cit. note 2; USDA, July 1997, op. cit. note 7.
45. Isherwood and Soh, op. cit. note 7; USDA, October 1995, op. cit. note 7; USDA, op. cit. note 3.
46. USDA, op. cit. note 2; USDA, FAS, World Agricultural Production (Washington, DC: various issues); USDA, FAS, Grain: World Markets and Trade, Washington, DC, August 1995; grain price information from IMF, International Financial Statistics (Washington, DC: various years).
47. USDA, op. cit. note 2; USDA, FAS, World Agricultural Production (Washington, DC: various issues); USDA, FAS, Grain: World Markets and Trade, Washington, DC, August 1995; grain price information from IMF, International Financial Statistics (Washington, DC: various years).
48. USDA, op. cit. note 2; USDA, FAS, World Agricultural Production (Washington, DC: various issues); USDA, FAS, Grain: World Markets and Trade, Washington, DC, August 1995; grain price information from IMF, International Financial Statistics (Washington, DC: various years).
49. USDA, July 1997, op. cit. note 7; USDA, op. cit. note 2.
50. IMF, International Statistics Yearbook (Washington, DC: 1996).
51. "Agriculture and Development," National Conditions Report No. 5, National Conditions Analysis and Research Group, Chinese Academy of Sciences, received from Wang Yi, Associate Professor, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Washington, DC, 1 July 1997.
52. Bureau of the Census, op. cit. note 4.
53. USDA, unpublished printout, op. cit. note 6, USDA, op. cit. note 2.
54. USDA, unpublished printout, op. cit. note 6; USDA, op. cit. note 2.
55. USDA, ERS, Agricultural Resources: Cropland, Water and Conservation Situation and Outlook Report (Washington, DC: September 1991).
56. FAO, op. cit. note 3.
57. "Chinese Roads Paved with Gold," Financial Times, 23 November 1994.
58. N. Vasuki Rao, "World's Top Automakers On the Road to India," Journal of Commerce, 26 February 1996.
59. FAO, FAO Production Yearbooks, op. cit. note 15; USDA, op. cit. note 2; USDA, FAS, Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade (Washington, DC: April 1997).
60. FAO, FAO Production Yearbooks, op. cit. note 15; USDA, op. cit. note 2; USDA, FAS, Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade (Washington, DC: April 1997).
61. USDA, op. cit. note 2; Wang Rong, "Food Before Golf on Southern Land," China Daily, 25 January 1995.
62. USDA, op. cit. note 2.
63. Ibid.; Bureau of the Census, op. cit. note 4.
64. Isherwood and Soh, op. cit. note 7; USDA, October 1995, op. cit. note 7; USDA, FAS, World Agricultural Production (Washington, DC: December 1995); USDA, FAS, World Agricultural Production (Washington, DC: September 1996); USDA, ERS, Agricultural Resources Inputs: Situation and Outlook Report (Washington, DC: October 1993).
65. Isherwood and Soh, op. cit. note 7; USDA, October 1995, op. cit. note 7; USDA, FAS, World Agricultural Production (Washington, DC: December 1995); USDA, FAS, World Agricultural Production (Washington, DC: September 1996); USDA, ERS, Agricultural Resources Inputs: Situation and Outlook Report (Washington, DC: October 1993).
66. Isherwood and Soh, op. cit. note 7; USDA, October 1995, op. cit. note 7; USDA, FAS, World Agricultural Production (Washington, DC: December 1995); USDA, FAS, World Agricultural Production (Washington, DC: September 1996); USDA, ERS, Agricultural Resources Inputs: Situation and Outlook Report (Washington, DC: October 1993).
67. USDA, unpublished printout, op. cit. note 6; USDA, op. cit. note 2; USDA, op. cit. note 3; population from Bureau of the Census, op. cit. note 4.
68. FAO, FAO Production Yearbook 1993 (Rome: 1994); Bill Quinby, ERS, USDA, Washington, DC, discussion with author, 24 January 1996.
69. Sandra Postel, Last Oasis: Facing Water Scarcity (New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 1992); FAO, FAO Production Yearbooks, op. cit. note 15; Quinby, op. cit. note 46.
70. Sandra Postel, Last Oasis: Facing Water Scarcity (New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 1992); FAO, FAO Production Yearbooks, op. cit. note 15; Quinby, op. cit. note 46.
71. Irrigated area in FAO, FAO Production Yearbooks, op. cit. note 15, with per capita figures derived from Bureau of the Census, op. cit. note 4.
72. FAO, FAO Production Yearbook 1995 (Rome: 1996).
73. W. Hunter Colby et al., Agricultural Statistics of the People's Republic of China, 1949-90 (Washington, DC: USDA, ERS, 1992).
74. Gordon Sloggett and Clifford Dickason, Ground-Water Mining in the United States (Washington, DC: USDA, ERS, 1986).
75. USDA, Natural Resources Conservation Service, Summary Report: 1992 National Resources Inventory (Washington, DC: July 1994, rev. January 1995); Sandra Postel, "Forging a Sustainable Water Strategy," in Lester R. Brown et al., State of the World 1996 (New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 1996).
76. USDA, Natural Resources Conservation Service, Summary Report: 1992 National Resources Inventory (Washington, DC: July 1994, rev. January 1995); Sandra Postel, "Forging a Sustainable Water Strategy," in Lester R. Brown et al., State of the World 1996 (New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 1996).
77. R.P.S. Malik and Paul Faeth, "Rice-Wheat Production in Northwest India," in Paul Faeth, ed., Agricultural Policy and Sustainability: Case Studies from India, Chile, the Philippines, and the United States (Washington, DC: World Resources Institute, 1993).
78. Professor Chen Yiyu, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China, discussion with author, 12 March 1996.
79. Ibid.
80. USDA, op. cit. note 52; Postel, op. cit. note 52; Charles J. Hanley, "Saudi Arabia Farming Sucks the Country Dry," Associated Press, 29 March 1997; USDA, op. cit. note 2.
81. McVean Trading and Investments, Memphis, Tenn., discussion with author, 29 May 1996.
82. USDA, op. cit. note 52; Postel, op. cit. note 52.
83. FAO, Yield Response to Water (Rome: various years).
84. John Barham, "Euphrates Power Plant Generates New Tension," Financial Times, 15 February 1996; Yuan Shu, "Nations Find Unity in Taming the Mekong," The WorldPaper, November 1994.
85. John Barham, "Euphrates Power Plant Generates New Tension," Financial Times, 15 February 1996; Yuan Shu, "Nations Find Unity in Taming the Mekong," The WorldPaper, November 1994.
86. David Seckler, The New Era of Water Resources Management: From 'Dry' to 'Wet' Water Savings, Issues in Agriculture 8 (Washington, DC: Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research, April 1996).
87. FAO, FAO Production Yearbooks, op. cit. note 15; Quinby, op. cit. note 46; Bureau of the Census, op. cit. note 4.
88. USDA, op. cit. note 3.
89. World water use from I.A. Shiklomanov, "Global Water Resources," Nature & Resources, Vol. 26, No. 3. 1990.
90. USDA, op. cit. note 2; USDA, FAS, op. cit. note 6.
91. Lester R. Brown, Increasing World Food Output: Problems and Prospects, Foreign Agriculture Economic Report No. 25 (Washington, DC: USDA, ERS, April 1965); USDA, op. cit. note 2; USDA, FAS, op. cit. note 6; Japanese price supports from Scott Thompson, FAS, USDA, Washington, DC, discussion with author, 8 July 1997.
92. Brown, op. cit. note 66; USDA, op. cit. note 2; USDA, FAS, op. cit. note 6.
93. L.T. Evans, "The Natural History of Crop Yields," American Scientist, July-August, 1980; L.T. Evans, Crop Evolution, Adaptation, and Yield (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 1993).
94. L.T. Evans, "The Natural History of Crop Yields," American Scientist, July-August, 1980; L.T. Evans, Crop Evolution, Adaptation, and Yield (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 1993).
95. Evans, "The Natural History of Crop Yields," op. cit. note 68; Evans, Crop Evolution, Adaptation, and Yield, op. cit. note 68.
96. Evans, "The Natural History of Crop Yields," op. cit. note 68; Evans, Crop Evolution, Adaptation, and Yield, op. cit. note 68.
97. Donald N. Duvick, Affiliate Professor of Plant Breeding, Iowa State University, letter to author, 14 March 1997.
98. FAO, Fertilizer Yearbook (Rome: various years); K.G. Soh and K.F. Isherwood, "Short Term Prospects for World Agriculture and Fertilizer Use," presentation at IFA Enlarged Council Meeting, International Fertilizer Industry Association, Marrakech, Morocco, 19-22 November 1996.
99. FAO, Fertilizer Yearbook (Rome: various years); K.G. Soh and K.F. Isherwood, "Short Term Prospects for World Agriculture and Fertilizer Use," presentation at IFA Enlarged Council Meeting, International Fertilizer Industry Association, Marrakech, Morocco, 19-22 November 1996.
100. FAO, op. cit. note 71; Isherwood and Soh, op. cit. note 7.
101. Lester R. Brown, Seeds of Change (New York: Praeger Publishers, 1970).
102. Duvick, op. cit. note 70.
103. USDA, unpublished printout, op. cit. note 6; USDA, op. cit. note 2; USDA, FAS, op. cit. note 6.
104. USDA, FAS, op. cit. note 6; FAO, op. cit. note 3.
105. USDA, unpublished printout, op. cit. note 6; USDA, op. cit. note 2; USDA, FAS, op. cit. note 6.
106. USDA, unpublished printout, op. cit. note 6; USDA, op. cit. note 2; USDA, FAS, op. cit. note 6.
107. USDA, unpublished printout, op. cit. note 6; USDA, op. cit. note 2; USDA, FAS, op. cit. note 6.
108. Mary Cabrera, International Rice Research Institute, Philippines, letter to Worldwatch, 26 February 1997.
109. Donald O. Mitchell and Merlinda D. Ingco, International Economics Department, The World Food Outlook (Washington, DC: World Bank, 1993).
110. Brown, op. cit. note 73; USDA, op. cit. note 3.
111. USDA, unpublished printout, op. cit. note 6; USDA, op. cit. note 2; USDA, FAS, op. cit. note 6.
112. Fredrick W. Crook and Hunter Colby, The Future of China's Grain Market, USDA, ERS, Agriculture Information Bulletin Number 730, October 1996; USDA, FAS, op. cit. note 6.
113. USDA, unpublished printout, op. cit. note 6; USDA, op. cit. note 2; USDA, FAS, op. cit. note 6.
114. Gurdev S. Khush, "Modern Varieties-Their Real Contribution to Food Supply and Equity," GeoJournal, March 1995.
115. USDA, FAS, op. cit. note 6; USDA, op. cit. note 3.
116. USDA, unpublished printout, op. cit. note 6; USDA, op. cit. note 2; USDA, FAS, op. cit. note 6.
117. USDA, op. cit. note 2; USDA, FAS, op. cit. note 6.
118. USDA, FAS, op. cit. note 6; Soh and Isherwood, op. cit. note 71.
119. USDA, unpublished printout, op. cit. note 6; USDA, op. cit. note 2; USDA, FAS, op. cit. note 6.
120. USDA, unpublished printout op. cit. note 6; USDA, op. cit. note 2; USDA, FAS, op. cit. note 6.
121. Thomas R. Sinclair, "Limits to Crop Yield?" in American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Physiology and Determination of Crop Yield (Madison, WI: 1994).
122. Brown, op. cit. note 66; USDA, op. cit. note 2; USDA, FAS, op. cit. note 6.
123. USDA, op. cit. note 2.
124. Ibid.; USDA, unpublished printout, op. cit. note 6.
125. USDA, op. cit. note 3; USDA, op. cit. note 2; USDA, unpublished printout, op. cit. note 6.
126. James Hansen et al., Goddard Institute for Space Studies Surface Air Temperature Analyses, "Table of Global-Mean Monthly, Annual and Seasonal Land-Ocean Temperature Index, 1950-Present," , 19 January 1996; USDA, op. cit. note 2.
127. USDA, op. cit. note 2.
128. USDA, December 1995, op. cit. note 44.
129. "Vietnam to Limit Exports of Rice for Four Months," Journal of Commerce, 19 May 1995; information on China from Christopher Goldthwaite, FAS, USDA, Washington, DC, letter to Worldwatch, 25 April 1995; "Wheat Soars to 15-Year High As Europe Puts Tax on Exports," New York Times, 8 December 1995; "EU to Conserve Barley by Curbing Exports," Journal of Commerce, 12 January 1996.
130. "Vietnam to Limit Exports of Rice for Four Months," Journal of Commerce, 19 May 1995; information on China from Christopher Goldthwaite, FAS, USDA, Washington, DC, letter to Worldwatch, 25 April 1995; "Wheat Soars to 15-Year High As Europe Puts Tax on Exports," New York Times, 8 December 1995; "EU to Conserve Barley by Curbing Exports," Journal of Commerce, 12 January 1996.
131. "Vietnam to Limit Exports of Rice for Four Months," Journal of Commerce, 19 May 1995; information on China from Christopher Goldthwaite, FAS, USDA, Washington, DC, letter to Worldwatch, 25 April 1995; "Wheat Soars to 15-Year High As Europe Puts Tax on Exports," New York Times, 8 December 1995; "EU to Conserve Barley by Curbing Exports," Journal of Commerce, 12 January 1996.
132. Laurie Morse and Gary Mead, "EU Tax News Boosts Wheat," Financial Times, 25 April 1997.
133. FAO, Food Outlook, August/September 1995; Shalha Shipouri and Margaret Missiaen, "Shortfalls in International Food Aid Expected," FoodRevieiv, September-December 1995.
134. FAO, Food Outlook, August/September 1995; Shalha Shipouri and Margaret Missiaen, "Shortfalls in International Food Aid Expected," FoodRevieiv, September-December 1995.
135. USDA, op. cit. note 3.
136. Bureau of the Census, op. cit. note 4; USDA, op. cit. note 3.
137. United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 1996 Revision (New York: forthcoming).
138. Brown, op. cit. note 10.
139. Bureau of the Census, op. cit. note 4.
140. Ibid.; USDA, op. cit. note 3.
141. USDA, op. cit. note 3; Bureau of the Census, op. cit. note 4.
142. Merlinda D. Ingco, Donald O. Mitchell, and Alex F. McCalla, Global Food Supply Prospects, World Bank Technical Paper No. 353 (Washington, DC: World Bank, 1996); FAO, World Agriculture: Towards 2010 (New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1995); "Grain Prices Could Double by 2010," Kyodo News, 25 December 1995; "Big Rise in Grain Price Predicted," China Daily, 26 December 1995.
143. Merlinda D. Ingco, Donald O. Mitchell, and Alex F. McCalla, Global Food Supply Prospects, World Bank Technical Paper No. 353 (Washington, DC: World Bank, 1996); FAO, World Agriculture: Towards 2010 (New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1995); "Grain Prices Could Double by 2010," Kyodo News, 25 December 1995; "Big Rise in Grain Price Predicted," China Daily, 26 December 1995.
144. Merlinda D. Ingco, Donald O. Mitchell, and Alex F. McCalla, Global Food Supply Prospects, World Bank Technical Paper No. 353 (Washington, DC: World Bank, 1996); FAO, World Agriculture: Towards 2010 (New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1995); "Grain Prices Could Double by 2010," Kyodo News, 25 December 1995; "Big Rise in Grain Price Predicted," China Daily, 26 December 1995.
145. Merlinda D. Ingco, Donald O. Mitchell, and Alex F. McCalla, Global Food Supply Prospects, World Bank Technical Paper No. 353 (Washington, DC: World Bank, 1996); FAO, World Agriculture: Towards 2010 (New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1995); "Grain Prices Could Double by 2010," Kyodo News, 25 December 1995; "Big Rise in Grain Price Predicted," China Daily, 26 December 1995.
146. FAO, Rome Declaration on World Food Security and World Food Summit Plan of Action, Rome, 13-17 November 1996.
147. USDA, July 1997, op. cit. note 7.
148. USDA, ERS, "Food Costs Review 1995," Agricultural Economic Report 729 (Washington, DC: April, 1996); David Harvey, Poultry Specialist, ERS, USDA, discussion with Worldwatch, 1 July 1997.
149. World Bank, op. cit. note 1; 70 percent figure from U.N. Development Programme, Human Development Report 1993 (New York: Oxford University Press, 1993).
150. U.S. Bureau of the Census, World Population Profile: 1996 (Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office, July 1996).
151. Unmet need for family planning from U.N. General Assembly, "Draft Programme of Action of the International Conference on Population and Development" (draft), New York, April 1994.
152. Worldwatch estimate based on United Nations, Energy Statistics Yearbook (New York: 1996); Christopher Flavin, "Wind Power Growth Continues," and Molly O'Meara, "Solar Cell Shipments Keep Rising," both in Lester R. Brown, Michael Renner, and Christopher Flavin, Vital Signs 1997 (New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 1997).
153. Worldwatch estimate based on United Nations, Energy Statistics Yearbook (New York: 1996); Christopher Flavin, "Wind Power Growth Continues," and Molly O'Meara, "Solar Cell Shipments Keep Rising," both in Lester R. Brown, Michael Renner, and Christopher Flavin, Vital Signs 1997 (New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 1997).
154. Worldwatch estimate based on United Nations, Energy Statistics Yearbook (New York: 1996); Christopher Flavin, "Wind Power Growth Continues," and Molly O'Meara, "Solar Cell Shipments Keep Rising," both in Lester R. Brown, Michael Renner, and Christopher Flavin, Vital Signs 1997 (New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 1997).
155. Worldwatch estimate based on United Nations, Energy Statistics Yearbook (New York: 1996); Christopher Flavin, "Wind Power Growth Continues," and Molly O'Meara, "Solar Cell Shipments Keep Rising," both in Lester R. Brown, Michael Renner, and Christopher Flavin, Vital Signs 1997 (New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 1997).
156. Patrick E. Tyler, "China's Transport Gridlock: Cars vs. Mass Transit," New York Times, 4 May 1996.
157. Postel, op. cit. note 47.
158. USDA, op. cit. note 2; Bureau of the Census, op. cit. note 4.