The effect of order of presentation of verbal probability expressions on numerical estimates in a medical context

Psychology, Health and Medicine

Volumn 8, Issue 4, 2003, Pages 391-398

  Bergenstrom, A ^a,c   Sherr, L ^b  

^a JOHNS HOPKINS BLOOMBERG SCHOOL OF PUBLIC HEALTH   (United States)

^b ROYAL FREE AND UNIVERSITY COLLEGE MEDICAL SCHOOL   (United Kingdom)

^c Department of Epidemiology ^*  (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ADULT; ARTICLE; CLINICAL PRACTICE; COGNITION; CONSULTATION; FACIAL EXPRESSION; FEMALE; HEALTH BEHAVIOR; HUMAN; MAJOR CLINICAL STUDY; MALE; MEDICAL DECISION MAKING; MEDICAL STUDENT; OUTCOMES RESEARCH; PRIORITY JOURNAL; PROBABILITY; VERBAL COMMUNICATION;

EID: 0142122301     PISSN: 13548506     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/1354850310001604522     Document Type: Article

References (27)

1. AYTON, P. (1995). Risk measures expressed as frequencies may have a more rational response. The British Medical Journal, 310, 1269.
2. BEYTH-MAROM, R. (1982). How probable is probable? Numerical translation of verbal probability expressions. Journal of Forecasting, 1, 257-269.
3. BERRY, D., KNAPP, P. & RAYNOR, D. (2002). Provision of information about drug side effects to patients. The Lancet, vol. 359, 9309, p 853-854.
4. BERRY, D., RAYNOR, D., KNAPP, P. & BERSELLINI, E. (2003). Patients' understanding of risk associated with medication use: impact of European commission guidelines and other risk scales. Drug Safety, 26(1), 1-11.
5. BRUN, W. & TEIGEN, K. H. (1988). Verbal probabilities: Ambiguous, context-dependent, or both? Organisational Behaviour and Human Decision Processes, 41, 390-404.
6. BUDESCU, D. V. & WALLSTEN, T. S. (1987). Subjective estimation of precise and vague uncertainties. In: G. WRIGHT & P. AYTON (Eds), Judgemental Forecasting (pp. 63-82). Chichester: Wiley.
7. CONNOR, E., SPERLING, R., GELBER, R., KISELEV, P., SCOTT, G. & O'SULLIVAN, M. (1994). Reduction of maternal-infant transmission of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 with zidovudine treatment. New England Journal of Medicine, 331, 1173-1180.
8. EDWARDS, A. & ELWYN, G. (2001). Understanding risk and lessons for clinical risk communication about treatment preferences. Quality in Health Care, 10(suppl 1), 9-13.
9. EDWARDS, A., ELWYN, G., COVEY, J., MATTHEWS, E. & PILL, R. (2001). Presenting risk information-a review of the effects of framing and other manipulations on patient outcomes. Journal of Health Communication, 6(1), 61-82.
10. EDWARDS, A., UNIGWE, S., ELWYN, G. & HOOD, K. (2003). Personalised risk communication for informed decision making about entering screening programs. Cochrane Database System Review, 1, CD001865.
11. EREV, I. & COHEN, B. L. (1990). Verbal versus numerical probabilities: Efficiency, biases and the preference paradox. Organisational Behaviour and Human Decision Processes, 45, 1-18.
12. FULLER, R., DUDLEY, N. & BLACKTOP, J. (2001). Risk communication and older people-understanding of probability and risk information by medical inpatients aged 85 years and older. Age Ageing, 6, 473-476.
13. HAMM, R. M. (1991). Selection of verbal probabilities: A solution for some problems of verbal probability expressions. Organisational Behaviour and Human Decision Processes, 48, 193-223.
14. KONG, A., BARNETT, G. O., MOSTELLER, F. & YOUTZ, C. (1986). How medical professionals evaluate expressions of probability. New England Journal of Medicine, 315(12), 740-744.
15. LICHLINSTEIN, S. & NEWMAN, J. R. (1967). Empirical scaling of common verbal phrases associated with numerical probabilities. Psychonomic Science, 9, 563-564.
16. MAZUR, D. & MERZ, J. (1994). How age, outcome severity and scale influence general medicine clinic patients' interpretations of verbal probability terms. Journal of General Internal Medicine, 5, 268-271.
17. NAKAO, M. A. & AXELROD, S. (1983). Numbers are better than words: Verbal specifications of frequency have no place in medicine. American Journal of Medicine, 74, 1061-1065.
18. REDELMEIER, D. & CIALDINI, R. (2002). Problems for clinical judgement: 5 principles of influence in medical practice. Canadian Medical Association Journal, 166(13), 1680-1684.
19. REAGAN, R. T., MOSTELLER, F. & YOUTZ, C. (1989). Quantitative meanings of verbal probability expressions. Journal of Applied Psychology, 74(3), 433-442.
20. REDELMEIER, D. A., ROZIN, P. & KAHNEMAN, D. (1993). Understanding Patients' Decisions Cognitive and Emotional Perspectives. Journal of American Medical Association, 270(1), 72-76.
21. SANDMAN, P., WEINSTEIN, N. & MILLER, P. (1994). High risk or low - how location on a risk ladder affects perceived risk. Risk Analysis, 14(1), 35-45.
22. SCHWARTZ, W. B. (1979). Sounding board. Decision analysis. A look at chief complaints. The New England Journal of Medicine, 300, 87-90,
23. TEIGEN, K. H. & BRUN, W. (1995). Yes, but is it uncertain: Direction and communicative intention of verbal probabilistic terms. Acta Psychologica, 88, 233-258.
24. TVERSKY, A. & KAHNEMAN, D. (1991). The framing of decisions and the psychology of choice. Science, 211, 453-458.
25. WEINSTEIN, N. (1989). Optimistic biases about personality risks. Science, 246(4935), 1232-1233.
26. WEINSTEIN, N. (1999). What does it mean to understand a risk? Evaluating risk comprehension. Journal of the National Cancer Institute, Monograph, 25, 15-20.
27. WEINSTEIN, N. (1987). Unrealistic optimistic about susceptibility to health problems: Conclusions from a community wide sample. Journal of Behavioural Medicine, 10(5), 481-500.