A stochastic-modeling evaluation of the foot-and-mouth-disease survey conducted after the outbreak in Miyazaki, Japan in 2000

Preventive Veterinary Medicine

Volumn 61, Issue 1, 2003, Pages 45-58

  Tsutsui, T ^a   Minami, N ^b   Koiwai, M ^c   Hamaoka, T ^a   Yamane, I ^a   Shimura, K ^a  

^a NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF ANIMAL HEALTH   (Japan)

^b UNIVERSITY OF TSUKUBA   (Japan)

^c Animal Quarantine Service   (Japan)

Author keywords

FMD; Herd level sensitivity; Stochastic model; Survey

Indexed keywords

ANIMALIA; PHRAGMITES;

EID: 0142116199     PISSN: 01675877     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/S0167-5877(03)00160-0     Document Type: Article

References (22)

1. Audige, L., Beckett, S., 1999. A quantitative assessment of the validity of animal-health surveys using stochastic modeling. Prev. Vet. Med. 38, 259-276.
2. Audige, L., Doherr, M.G., Hauser, R., Salman, M.D., 2001. Stochastic modeling as a tool for planning animal-health surveys and interpreting screening-test results. Prev. Vet. Med. 49, 1-17.
3. Burrows, R., 1968. Excretion of foot-and-mouth disease virus prior to the development of lesions. Vet. Rec. 82, 387-388.
4. Carpenter, T.E., Gardner, I.A., 1996. Simulation modeling to determine herd-level predictive values and sensitivity based on individual-animal test sensitivity and specificity and sample size. Prev. Vet. Med. 27, 57-66.
5. Christensen, J., Gardner, I.A., 2000. Herd-level interpretation of test results for epidemiologic studies of animal diseases. Prev. Vet. Med. 45, 83-106.
6. Donald, A.W., Gardner, I.A., Wiggins, A.D., 1994. Cut-off points for aggregate herd testing in the presence of disease clustering and correlation of test errors. Prev. Vet. Med. 19, 167-187.
7. Evans J.R., Olson, D.L., 1998. Introduction to Simulation and Risk Analysis. Prentice-Hall, New Jersey.
8. Garner, M.G., Lack, M.B., 1995. An evaluation of alternate control strategies for foot-and-mouth disease in Australia: a regional approach. Prev. Vet. Med. 23, 9-32.
9. Howard, S.C., Donnelly, C.A., 2000. The importance of immediate destruction in epidemics of foot and mouth disease. Res. Vet. Sci. 69, 189-196.
10. Hugh-Jones, M.E., Tinline, R.R., 1976. Studies on the 1967-1968 foot and mouth disease epidemic: incubation period and herd serial interval. J. Hyg. Camb. 77, 141-153.
11. Hugh-Jones, M.E., Wright, P.B., 1970. Studies on the 1967-8 foot-and-mouth disease epidemic: the relation of weather to the spread of disease. J. Hyg. Camb. 68, 253-271.
12. James, A.D., 1998. Guide to epidemiological surveillance for rinderpest. Rev. Sci. Tech. Off. Int. Epiz. 17, 796-809.
13. Jordan, D., McEwen, S.A., 1998. Herd-level test performance based on uncertain estimates of individual test performance, individual true prevalence and herd true prevalence. Prev. Vet. Med. 36, 187-209.
14. Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF), 2000. National Statistics of Livestock. MAFF (in Japanese).
15. Martin, S.W., Shoukri, M., Thorburn, M.A., 1992. Evaluating the health status of herds based on tests applied to individuals. Prev. Vet. Med. 14, 33-43.
16. Noordhuizen, J.P.T.M., Frankena, K., van der Hoofd, C.M., Graat, E.A.M., 1997. Application of Quantitative Methods in Veterinary Epidemiology. Wageningen pers, Wageningen.
17. Sakamoto, K., Yamakawa, M., Kanno, T., Murakami, Y., 2000. Pathogenesis of O/JPN/2000 to susceptible animals. Session of the Research Group of the Standing Technical Committee 2000 FMD Report. European Commission for the Control of Foot-and-mouth Disease, pp. 32-38.
18. Sanson, R.L., 1994. The epidemiology of foot-and-mouth disease: implication for New Zealand. NZ Vet. J. 42, 41-53.
19. Seller, R.F., Forman, A.J., 1973. The Hampshier epidemic of foot-and-mouth disease, 1967. J. Hyg. Camb. 71, 15-34.
20. Vose, D., 2000. Risk Analysis: A Quantitative Guide. Wiley, Chichester.
21. Wahlstrom, H., Englund, L., Carpenter, T., Emanuelson, U., Engvall, A., Vagsholm, I., 1998. A Reed-Frost model of the spread of tuberculosis within seven Swedish extensive farmed fallow deer herds. Prev. Vet. Med. 35, 181-193.
22. Woolhouse, M.E.J., Haydon, D.T., Pearson, A., Kitching, R.P., 1996. Failure of vaccination to prevent outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease. Epidemiol. Infect. 116, 363-371.