Criminal incident prediction using a point-pattern-based density model

International Journal of Forecasting

Volumn 19, Issue 4, 2003, Pages 603-622

  Liu, Hua ^a   Brown, Donald E ^b  

^a CSG Systems Inc   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF VIRGINIA   (United States)

Author keywords

Crime forecasting; Hot spot prediction model; Point pattern methods; Spatial transition density model

Indexed keywords

EID: 0142087671     PISSN: 01692070     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/S0169-2070(03)00094-3     Document Type: Article

References (30)

1. Amir M. Patterns in forcible rape 1971 University of Chicago Press Chicago
2. Baldwin J. Bottoms A. The urban criminal: A study in Sheffield 1976 Tavistock Publications London
3. Block C. STAC hot-spot areas: A statistical tool for law enforcement decisions In Block C.R. Dabdoub M. Fregly S. (Eds.), Crime analysis through computer mapping 1995 20036 Police Executive Research Forum Washington, DC
4. Brantingham P. Brantingham P. Spatial patterns of burglary Howard Journal of Penology and Crime Prevention 14 1975 11-24
5. Brantingham P. Brantingham P. Patterns in crime 1984 Macmillan Publishing New York
6. Brown D.E. The Regional Crime Analysis Program (ReCAP): A framework for mining data to catch criminals Proceedings of 1998 IEEE International Conference on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics 1998 2848-2853
7. Capone D. Nichols W. Urban structure and criminal mobility American Behavioral Scientist 20 1976 199-213
8. CensusCD+maps, Version 2.0 (1998). GeoLytics, East Brunswick, NJ.
9. Cressie N.A.C. Statistics for spatial data 1993 Wiley New York
10. Dempster A.P. Laird N.M. Rubin D.B. Maximum likelihood estimation from incomplete data via the EM algorithm (with discussion) Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B 39 1977 1-38
11. Diggle P.J. The statistical analysis of spatial point patterns 1983 Academic Press London
12. Everitt B.S. An introduction to latent variable models 1984 Chapman & Hall London
13. Everitt B.S. Cluster analysis 3rd ed. 1991 Edward Arnold London
14. Everitt B.S. Hand D.J. Finite mixture distributions 1981 Chapman & Hall London
15. Fiksel T. Simple spatial-temporal models for sequences of geological events Elektronische Informationsverarbeitung und Kybernetik 20 1984 480-487
16. Jefferis E. 1998 A multi-method exploration of crime hot spots. Presentation at the Annual Meeting of the Academy of Criminal Justice Sciences, Albuquerque, NM, March 10-14, 1998.
17. LeBeau J.L. The journey to rape: Geographic distance and the rapist's methods of approaching the victim Journal of Police Science and Administration 15 1987 129-136
18. Levine N. 1998 "Hot Spot" analysis using CrimeStat kernel density interpolation. Presentation at the Annual Meeting of the Academy of Criminal Justice Sciences, Albuquerque, NM, March 10-14, 1998.
19. Marchette D.J. Priebe C.E. Rogers G.W. Solka J.L. Filtered kernel density estimation Computational Statistics 11 1996 95-112
20. McLachlan G.J. Basford K.E. Mixture models: Inference and applications to clustering 1988 Marcel Dekker New York
21. Milligan G.W. Cooper M.C. An examination of procedures for determining the number of clusters in a data set Psychometrika 50 1985 159-179
22. Mojena R. Hierarchical grouping methods and stopping rules: An evaluation Computer Journal 20 1977 359-363
23. Molumby T. Patterns of crime in a university housing project American Behavioral Scientist 20 1976 247-259
24. Newman O. Defensible space: Crime prevention through urban design 1972 Macmillan New York
25. Repetto T.A. Residential crime 1974 Ballinger Cambridge, MA
26. Rossmo D.K. Target patterns of serial murders: A methodological model American Journal of Criminal Justice 172 1993 1-21
27. Rossmo D.K. Targeting victims: Serial killers and the urban environment O'Reilly-Flemming T. Serial and mass murder: Theory, research, and policy 1996 Canadian Scholars Press Toronto
28. Scarr H.A. Patterns in burglary 2nd ed. 1973 U.S. Department of Justice Washington, DC
29. Scott D.W. Multivariate density estimation 1992 Wiley New York
30. Titterington D.M. Smith A.F.M. Makov U.E. Statistical analysis of finite mixture distributions 1985 Wiley New York