Spatiotemporal stochastic forcing effects in an ensemble consisting of arrays of diffusively coupled Lorenz cells

Chaos

Volumn 13, Issue 3, 2003, Pages 913-920

  Lorenzo, Maria Nieves ^a   Santos, Miguel A ^b   Pérez Muñuzuri, Vicente ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF SANTIAGO DE COMPOSTELA   (Spain)

^b UNIVERSITAT ROVIRA I VIRGILI   (Spain)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 0141566668     PISSN: 10541500     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1063/1.1601791     Document Type: Article

References (35)

1. Z. Toth and E. Kalnay, "Ensemble forecasting at NMC: The generation of perturbations," Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 74, 2317-2330 (1993); M. S. Tracton and E. Kalnay, "Operational ensemble prediction at the National Meteorologic Center practical aspects," Weather Forecasting 8, 379-398 (1993); F. Molteni, R. Buizza, T. N. Palmer, and T. Petroliagis, "The ECMWF ensemble prediction system: Methodology and verification," Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 122, 73-119 (1996).
2. Z. Toth and E. Kalnay, "Ensemble forecasting at NMC: The generation of perturbations," Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 74, 2317-2330 (1993); M. S. Tracton and E. Kalnay, "Operational ensemble prediction at the National Meteorologic Center practical aspects," Weather Forecasting 8, 379-398 (1993); F. Molteni, R. Buizza, T. N. Palmer, and T. Petroliagis, "The ECMWF ensemble prediction system: Methodology and verification," Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 122, 73-119 (1996).
3. Z. Toth and E. Kalnay, "Ensemble forecasting at NMC: The generation of perturbations," Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 74, 2317-2330 (1993); M. S. Tracton and E. Kalnay, "Operational ensemble prediction at the National Meteorologic Center practical aspects," Weather Forecasting 8, 379-398 (1993); F. Molteni, R. Buizza, T. N. Palmer, and T. Petroliagis, "The ECMWF ensemble prediction system: Methodology and verification," Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 122, 73-119 (1996).
4. R. Buizza, M. Miller, and T. N. Palmer, "Stochastic representation of model uncertainties in the ECMWF ensemble prediction system," Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 125, 2887-2908 (1999).
5. P. L. Houtekamer, L. Lefaivre, J. Derome, H. Ritchie, and H. Mitchell, "A system simulation approach to ensemble prediction," Mon. Weather Rev. 124, 1225-1242 (1996).
6. M. S. J. Harrison, T. N. Palmer, D. Richardson, and R. Buizza, "Analysis and model dependencies in medium-range ensembles: Two transplant case-studies," Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 125, 2487-2515 (1999).
7. D. J. Stensrud, J. W. Bao, and T. T. Warner, "Using initial condition and model physics perturbations in short-range ensemble simulations of mesoscale convective systems," Mon. Weather Rev. 128, 2077-2107 (2000).
8. D. S. Richardson, "Ensembles using multiple models and analysis," Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 127, 1847-1864 (2001).
9. C. Frankignoul and K. Hasselmann, "Stochastic climate models. II. Application to SST anomalies and thermocline variability," Tellus 29, 289-305 (1977).
10. K. Y. Kim and G. R. North, "Surface temperature fluctuations in a stochastic climate model," J. Geophys. Res., 96, 18573-18580 (1991).
11. C. Nicolis, "Stochastic aspects of climatic transitions-response to a periodic forcing," Tellus 34, 1-9 (1982).
12. G. K. Vallis, "Conceptual models of El Niño and the Southern Oscillation," J. Geophys. Res. 93, 13979-13991 (1988).
13. J. García-Ojalvo and J. M. Sancho, Noise in Spatially Extended Systems (Springer, New York, 1999).
14. F. Moss and P. V. E. McClintock, Noise in Nonlinear Dynamical Systems (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge UK, 1989).
15. V. S. Anishchenko, V. Astakhov, A. B. Neiman, T. Vadivasova, and L. Schimansky-Geier, Nonlinear Dynamics of Chaotic and Stochastic Systems (Springer, Berlin, 2002).
16. I. Sendiña-Nadal, A. P. Muñuzuri, D. Vives, V. Pérez-Muñuzuri, J. Casademunt, L. Ramírez-Piscina, J. M. Sancho, and F. Sagués, "Wave propagation in a medium with disordered excitability," Phys. Rev. Lett. 80, 5437-5440 (1998); I. Sendiña-Nadal, S. Alonso, V. Pérez-Muñuzuri, M. Gómez-Gesteira, V. Pérez-Villar, J. Casademunt, L. Ramírez-Piscina, J. M. Sancho, and F. Sagués, "Brownian motion of spiral waves driven by spatiotemporal structured noise," ibid. 84, 2734-2737 (2000).
17. I. Sendiña-Nadal, A. P. Muñuzuri, D. Vives, V. Pérez-Muñuzuri, J. Casademunt, L. Ramírez-Piscina, J. M. Sancho, and F. Sagués, "Wave propagation in a medium with disordered excitability," Phys. Rev. Lett. 80, 5437-5440 (1998); I. Sendiña-Nadal, S. Alonso, V. Pérez-Muñuzuri, M. Gómez-Gesteira, V. Pérez-Villar, J. Casademunt, L. Ramírez-Piscina, J. M. Sancho, and F. Sagués, "Brownian motion of spiral waves driven by spatiotemporal structured noise," ibid. 84, 2734-2737 (2000).
18. J. Wang, S. Kádár, P. Jung, and K. Showalter, "Noise driven avalanche behavior in subexcitable media," Phys. Rev. Lett. 82, 855-858 (1999).
19. M. N. Lorenzo and V. Pérez-Muñuzuri, "Colored noise-induced chaotic array synchronization," Phys. Rev. E 60, 2779-2787 (1999); "Influence of low intensity noise on assemblies of diffusively coupled chaotic cells," Chaos 11, 371-376 (2001).
20. M. N. Lorenzo and V. Pérez-Muñuzuri, "Colored noise-induced chaotic array synchronization," Phys. Rev. E 60, 2779-2787 (1999); "Influence of low intensity noise on assemblies of diffusively coupled chaotic cells," Chaos 11, 371-376 (2001).
21. V. Pérez-Muñuzuri, M. N. Lorenzo, P. Montero, K. Fraedrich, E. Kirk, and F. Lunkeit, "Response of a global atmospheric circulation model on spatiotemporal stochastic forcing: Ensemble statistics," Nonlinear Proc. Geophys. (submitted).
22. E. N. Lorenz, "Deterministic nonperiodic flow," J. Atmos. Sci. 20, 130-141 (1963).
23. C. Sparrow, The Lorenz Equations: Bifurcations, Chaos and Strange Attractors (Springer, New York, 1982).
24. M. A. Santos and J. M. Sancho, "Front dynamics in the presence of of spatiotemporal structured noises," Phys. Rev. E 64, 016129 (2001).
25. P. L. Houtekamer and J. Derome, "Methods for ensemble prediction," Mon. Weather Rev. 123, 2181-2196 (1995); P. L. Houtekamer, "The construction of optimal perturbations," ibid. 123, 2888-2898 (1995).
26. P. L. Houtekamer and J. Derome, "Methods for ensemble prediction," Mon. Weather Rev. 123, 2181-2196 (1995); P. L. Houtekamer, "The construction of optimal perturbations," ibid. 123, 2888-2898 (1995).
27. J. S. Whitaker and A. F. Lougue, "The relationship between ensemble spread and ensemble mean skill," Mon. Weather Rev. 126, 3292-3302 (1998).
28. D. S. Wilks, Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences (Academic, New York, 1995).
29. T. W. Barker, "The relationship between spread and forecast error in extended-range forecast," J. Clim. 4, 733-742 (1991).
30. L. A. Smith, C. Ziehmann, and K. Fraedrich, "Uncertainty dynamics and predictability in chaotic systems," Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 125, 2855-2886 (1999).
31. R. Buizza, J. Barkmeijer, T. N. Palmer, and D. S. Richardson, "Current status and future developments of the ECMWF ensemble prediction system," Meteorol. Appl. 7, 163-175 (2000).
32. c. On the other hand, an increment in D can always be absorbed into a space dilation plus an increase in noise strength, keeping K fixed. This leads to c = 2.
33. J. M. Sancho, M. A. Santos, S. Alonso, and F. Sagués, "Non-Markovian effects in pattern forming chemical systems," Proceedings of the UPoN Conference, Washington, 2002 [AIP Conf. Proc. 665, 19 (2003)].
34. J. M. Sancho, M. A. Santos, S. Alonso, and F. Sagués, "Non-Markovian effects in pattern forming chemical systems," Proceedings of the UPoN Conference, Washington, 2002 [AIP Conf. Proc. 665, 19 (2003)].
35. D. J. Lea, M. R. Allen, and T. W. N. Hayne, "Sensitivity analysis of the climate of a chaotic system," Tellus, Ser. A 52, 523-532 (2000).