On the relationship between Clayton's skill score and expected value for forecasts of binary events

Meteorological Applications

Volumn 9, Issue 4, 2002, Pages 455-459

  Wandishin, Matthew S ^a   Brooks, Harold E ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA   (United States)

^b NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS LABORATORY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CLAYTON; ECONOMIC VALUES; EXPECTED VALUES; POSITIVE VALUE; RELATIVE VALUE; SKILL SCORE;

FORECASTING;

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS; NUMERICAL METHOD; NUMERICAL MODEL; PROBABILITY;

EID: 0042367758     PISSN: 13504827     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1017/S1350482702004085     Document Type: Article

References (10)

1. Clayton, H. H. (1889) Verification of weather forecasts. Am. Meteorol. J. 6: 211-219.
2. Clayton, H. H. (1934) Rating weather forecasts. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 15: 279-283.
3. Doswell, C. A., Davies-Jones, R. & Keller, D. L. (1990) On summary measures of skill in rare event forecasting based on contingency tables. Weather and forecasting 5: 576-585.
4. Murphy, A. H. (1996) The Finley affair: a signal event in the history of forecast verification. Weather and Forecasting 11: 3-20.
5. Peirce, C. S. (1884) The numerical measure of the success of predictions. Science 4: 453-454.
6. Richardson, D. S. (2000) Skill and relative economic value of the ECMWF ensemble pediction system. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 126: 649-667.
7. Roebber, P. J. & Bosart, L. E. (1996) The complex relationship between forecast skill and forecast value: a real-world analysis. Weather and Forecasting, 11: 544-559.
8. Stephenson, D. B. (2000) Use of the 'odds ratio' for diagnosing forecast skill. Weather and Forecasting 15: 221-232.
9. Thompson, J. C. & Brier, G. W. (1955) The economic utility of weather forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev. 83: 249-254.
10. Wilks, D. S. (1995) Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences. Academic Press, 467 pp.