Cyclical aspects of business cycle turning points

International Journal of Forecasting

Volumn 17, Issue 3, 2001, Pages 369-382

  Sarlan, Haldun ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA   (Canada)

Author keywords

Business cycles; Markov switching regime model; Spectral analysis; Turning points

Indexed keywords

EID: 0041908407     PISSN: 01692070     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/S0169-2070(01)00095-4     Document Type: Article

References (29)

1. Baxter M., King R.G. Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters for Economic Time Series. 1996;University of Virginia. Manuscript.
2. Diebold F.X., Rudebusch G.D. A nonparametric investigation of duration dependence in the American business cycle. Journal of Political Economy. 98:1990;596-616.
3. Diebold F.X., Rudebusch G.D. Measuring business cycles: a modern perspective. Review of Economics and Statistics. 1996;67-77.
4. Dornbusch R. Growth forever. Wall Street Journal. 1998;. July 30.
5. Emery K.M., Koeing E.V. Forecasting turning points: is a two-state characterization of the business cycle appropriate? Economics Letters. 39:1992;431-435.
6. Granger C.W.J. The typical spectral shape of an economic variable. Econometrica. 34:1966;150-161.
7. Hamilton J.D. A new approach to the economic analysis of nonstationary time series and the business cycles. Econometrica. 57:1989;357-384.
8. Hamilton J.D. Time Series Analysis. 1994;Princeton University Press, Princeton.
9. Hess G.D., Iwata S. Measuring and comparing business cycle features. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics. 15:1997;432-444.
10. Highfield R. A multivariate state space model for regime-shift prediction. 1991;Cornell University. Working paper.
11. Howrey E.P. A spectrum analysis of the long-swing hypothesis. International Economic Review. 9:(2):1968;228-252.
12. Klein P.A., Cullity J. Modern business cycles: premature death knell. Business Cycle Indicators. 1998;. March.
13. Kohn R. On the spectral decomposition of stationary time series using the Walsh functions I. Advances in Applied Probability. 12:1980;183-199.
14. Kohn R. On the spectral decomposition of stationary time series using the Walsh Functions II. Advances in Applied Probability. 12:1980;462-474.
15. Lahiri K., Wang J.W. Predicting cyclical turning points with leading index in a Markov switching model. Journal of Forecasting. 13:1994;245-263.
16. Morettin P.A. Walsh spectral analysis. SIAM Review. 23:1981;279-291.
17. Neftçi S.N. Are economic time-series asymmetric over the business cycle? Journal of Political Economy. 92:1984;305-328.
18. Potter S.M. A nonlinear approach to US GNP. Journal of Applied Econometrics. 10:1995;109-125.
19. Romer C.D. Changes in business cycles: evidence and explanations. 1999;National Bureau of Economic Research. Working paper 6948.
20. Sargent T.J., Sims C.A. Business cycle modelling without pretending to have too much a priori economic theory. Sims C.A. New Methods in Business Cycle Research. 1977;Federal Reserve Bank, Minneapolis.
21. Sarlan H. Three Essays in the Analysis of Economic Fluctuations. 1997;University of Montreal, Canada. Unpublished Ph.D. Thesis.
22. Sichel D.E. Inventories and the three phases of the business cycle. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics. 12:1994;269-277.
23. Stock Y.R., Watson M.W. Business cycle fluctuations in US macroeconomic time series. 1998;National Bureau of Economic Research. Working paper 6528.
24. Stoffer D.S. Walsh-Fourier analysis and its statistical applications. Journal of the American Statistical Association. 86:1991;461-479.
25. Weber S. End of the business cycle. Foreign Affairs. 1997;. July.
26. Weber S. Comment. Business Cycle Indicators. 1998;. April.
27. Zarnowitz W. Business cycles observed and assessed: why and how they matter. 1997;National Bureau of Economic Research. Working paper 6230.
28. Zarnowitz W. Has the business cycle been abolished. Business Economics. 33:(4):1998;39-45.
29. Zarnowitz W. Theory and history behind business cycles: are the 1990s the onset of a golden age. 1999;National Bureau of Economic Research. Working paper 7010.