Estimating the Size of a Criminal Population from Police Records Using the Truncated Poisson Regression Model

Statistica Neerlandica

Volumn 57, Issue 3, 2003, Pages 289-304

  Van der Heijden, Peter G M ^a   Cruyff, Maarten ^a   Van Houwelingen, Hans C ^b  

^a UTRECHT UNIVERSITY   (Netherlands)

^b LEIDEN UNIVERSITY MEDICAL CENTER   (Netherlands)

Author keywords

Capture recapture; Overdispersion; Population size estimation; Truncated Poisson regression

Indexed keywords

EID: 0041856456     PISSN: 00390402     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/1467-9574.00232     Document Type: Article

References (27)

1. BUNGE, J. and M. FITZPATRICK (1993), Estimating the number of species: a review, Journal of the American Statistical Association 88, 364-373.
2. CAMERON, A.C., and P.K. TRIVEDI (1998), Regression analysis of count data, Econometric Society Monographs No. 30, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press.
3. CHAO, A. (1988), Estimating animal abundance with capture frequency data, Journal of Wildlife Management 52, 295-300.
4. CHARLIER, C.V.L. (1905), Die zweite Form des Fehlergesetzes, Arkiv fur Matematik, Astronomi och Fysik 2, 1-35.
5. COLLINS, M.F., and R.M. WILSON (1990), Automobile theft: estimating the size of the criminal population, Journal of Quantitative Criminology 6, 395-409.
6. EFRON, B. and R. THISTED (1976), Estimating the number of unseen species: how many words did Shakespeare know? Biometrika 63, 435-447.
7. ENGBERSEN, G., R. STARING, J. VAN DER LEUN, J. DE BOOM, P. VAN DER HEIJDEN and M. CRUYFF (2002), Illegale vreemdelingen in Nederland. Omvang, overkomst, verblijf en uitzetting, RISBO, Erasmus University, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
8. GREENE, W.H. (1997), Econometric analysis (3rd ed.), Prentice Hall, New Jersey.
9. GREENE, M.A., and S. STOLLMACK (1981), Estimating the number of criminals, in: J.A. Fox (ed.), Models in quantitative criminology, Academic Press, New York, 1-24.
10. GURMU, S. (1991), Test for detecting overdispersion in the positive Poisson regression model, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 9 215-222.
11. HOOGTEIJLING, E. (2002), Raming van het aantal niet in de GBA geregistreerden., Voorburg, Statistics Netherlands.
12. HULS, F.W.M., M.M. SCHREUDERS, M.H. TER HORST-VAN BREUKELEN and F.P. VAN TULDER (2000), Criminaliteit en Rechtshandhaving 2000 189, 409-410.
13. JOHNSON, N.L., S. KOTZ and A.W. KEMP (1993), Univariate discrete distributions, (2nd ed.), Wiley, New York.
14. LONG, J.S. (1997), Regression models for categorical and limited dependent variables, CA Sage, Thousand Oaks.
15. ROSSMO, D.K. and R. ROUTLEDGE (1990), Estimating the size of criminal populations, Journal of quantitative criminology 6, 293-314.
16. SANATHANAN, L. (1977), Estimating the size of a truncated sample, Journal of the American Statistical Association 72, 669-672.
17. SEBER, G.A.F. (1982), The estimation of animal abundance, 2nd ed., Griffin and Co., London.
18. SEBER, G.A.F. (1986), A review of estimating animal abundance, Biometrics 42, 267-292.
19. SMIT, F., P.G.M. van DER HEIJDEN and G. VAN GILS (1993), Enkele weinig gebruikte methoden om de omvang van criminaliteit te schatten, Tijdschrift voor Criminologie 36, 97-119.
20. SMIT, F., J. TOET and P.G.M. VAN DER HEIJDEN (1996), City Report Rotterdam: Estimating the number of opiate users in Rotterdam using statistical models for incomplete count data, in: European Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction (EMCDDA), Methodological pilot study of local level prevalence estimates, EMCDDA, Lisbon, Portugal, pp. 49-69.
21. VAN DER HEIJDEN, P.G.M., F. SMIT and G. VAN GILS (1993), Schattingen van het aantal slachtofferloze delicten., Politia Nova 3, Ministry of Internal Affairs, The Netherlands.
22. VAN DER HEIJDEN, P.G.M., R. BUSTAMI, M.J.L.F. CRUYFF, G. ENGBERSEN and H. VAN HOUWELINGEN (in press). Point and interval estimation of the population size using the truncated Poisson regression model, Statistical Modelling.
23. VAN DER LEUN, J., G. ENGBERSEN and P.G.M. VAN DER HEIJDEN (1998), Illegaliteit en criminaliteit: schattingen, aanhoudingen en uitzettingen, Erasmus University, Department of Sociology, Rotterdam.
24. WILSON, R.M. and M.F. COLLINS (1992), Capture-recapture estimation with samples of size one using frequency data, Biometrika 79, 543-553.
25. WITTEBROOD K. and M. JUNGER (2002), Trends in violent crime: a comparison between police statistics and victimization surveys, Social Indicators Research 59, 153-173.
26. ZELTERMAN, D. (1988), Robust estimation in truncated discrete distributions with application to capture-recapture experiments, Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference 18, 225-237.
27. ZELTERMAN, D. (2001), Selected applications for categorical data. Advanced log-linear models using GENMOD, in Series: SAS books by users.