Recent demographic trends in the developed countries

Population

Volumn 57, Issue 1, 2002, Pages 111-156

  Sardon, Jean Paul ^a,b  

^a INSTITUT NATIONAL D'ÉTUDES DÉMOGRAPHIQUES   (France)

^b European Demographic Observatory (EDO)   (France)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

DEMOGRAPHIC TREND; EUROPEAN UNION; IMMIGRATION; LIFE EXPECTANCY; POPULATION GROWTH;

EASTERN EUROPE; EURASIA; EUROPE; RUSSIAN FEDERATION;

EID: 0041544528     PISSN: 16342941     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.2307/3246629     Document Type: Article

References (22)

1. The sources drawn on are the European Demographic Observatory's (EDO) database, the set of data collected jointly by international organizations (the Council of Europe, Eurostat and the United Nations), and the published figures of national statistical offices. A debt of thanks is owed to all those who contributed to that work, especially Alain Confesson, responsible for updating the EDO's database. Minor inconsistencies may be discerned between the (rounded-off) values shown in the tabtes and the narrative, which is based on the precise values.
2. Croatia's apparent population loss in 2000 is due to the break produced by the new census results.
3. Thus, no millennium effect was observed, at least for the continent as a whole. This will be considered in more detail at the end of this chapter.
4. Excluding the former GDR, which recorded total fertility rates below 1 child per woman from 1991 to 1996, bottoming out at 0.77 in 1993 and 1994.
5. For more details, see the European Demographic Observatory Briefing, 10, November 2001.
6. This analysis is confined to countries with a fertility rise above 2.5% in 2000, and for which monthly data are available.
7. It is also conceivable that couples may have awaited 2001 as the first year of the new millennium.
8. Thus, the nearly 5% fall in first quarter Portuguese fertility in 2001 could be evidence for a specific year 2000 response by couples.
9. The trend may even be accelerating, if the total fertility of 1,91 for the first half of 2001 is an indication.
10. The method by which the lifetime fertility of incompletely observed cohorts is estimated here (by assuming constant age-specific fertility rates) is apt to slightly underestimate the level of fertility intensity at a time when the timing of fertility is moving upwards. To limit the risk of drift, only cohorts for which the estimated part does not exceed 15% of completed fertility are shown in the table.
11. With the exception of Sweden where it has been stable since the birth cohort of 1961.
12. F. Prioux, "L'infécondité en Europe", in European Population, Vol. 2: Demographic Dynamics, Paris, INED, John Libbey Eurotext, 1993, p. 231-251.
13. Permanent infertility refers to the proportion of women who have never borne a live child in the course of their reproductive life.
14. Even so, the period first marriage rates in Table 8, that concern only de jure marriages and not all forms of union, must be interpreted with caution, since the weight of competing forms of cohabitation varies widely throughout Europe.
15. A change in the system used for processing vital registration records, introduced in 1998, has resulted in less completeness. The INSEE estimates that in 1998, 4% of marriages, 1.2% of deaths and 0.3% of births went unregistered, while the quality of monthly marriage data has sharply dropped.
16. The Greek rate was discounted because of wide fluctuations stemming from a belief in the ill-starred nature of leap year marriages, as was the rate for Portugal that over-estimates the marriage rate of Portuguese residents by failing to clearly distinguish between newly-weds living abroad and those residing in Portugal.
17. Usually available only from surveys.
18. Where the 2000 divorce rate returned to its 1998 pre-reform level.
19. Where male life expectancy at birth is also longer by 7 tenths of a year.
20. cf. National Report of the Russian Federation, in Recent Demographic Developments in Europe, Council of Europe, 2001.
21. Apart from Russia, where it has risen by 0.7 years.
22. International comparisons of infant mortality, and particularly those that include central and eastern European countries, are complicated by the different definitions of what constitutes a live birth. Some successor states to the former USSR still use the Soviet definition and class a child born alive which has breathed but died during the first week of life as a stillbirth, if it was born before the 28th week of gestation or weighed less than 1000 grams and measured less than 35 centimetres.