U.S.-China security relations: Past, present, and future

Issues and Studies

Volumn 36, Issue 4, 2000, Pages 33-65

  Dreyer, June Teufel ^a  

^a NONE

Author keywords

Asia Pacific defense; Cross Strait relations; Strategic partnership; U.S. China policy; U.S. China security relations

Indexed keywords

EID: 0041027365     PISSN: 10132511     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: None     Document Type: Article

References (80)

1. For a fascinating account of these activities, see Frank Holober, Raiders of the China Coast (Annapolis, Md.: Naval Institute Press, 1999).
2. For example, in mid-January 1953, two American planes were shot down over Nanaotao (Nanaodao), and another in Swatow (Shantou) during the following month. Captured U.S. pilots were sometimes paraded through the streets, to the derision of the local populace. See C1A Information Report, August 5, 1953.
3. "Probable Developments in the World Situation Through Mid-1953," CIA Document EO-1993-005 18, original publication date: September 23, 1951.
4. China argued that the Soviet Union was the one that had deviated from the path of true socialism practicing "revisionism" and "deviationism." Moscow, by far the stronger of the two militarily, held just the opposite view and was particularly critical ot the cult of Mao.
5. The islands were at the time occupied by South Vietnam, though quite obvious by 1974, when China seized them, was that Saigon was about to lose the battle with Hanoi for control of the country. As revealed in a White Paper published in 1979, the North Vietnamese leaders were furious at Beijing's action, but helpless to reverse the situation.
6. Henry Kissinger, White House Years (Boston: Little Brown, 1979), 186-87.
7. See William Burr, The Kissinger Transcripts: The Top Secret Talks with Beijing and Moscow (New York: Norton, 1999), for a detailed account of these conversations; reference to the absurdity of selling arms to part of a country is on page 295.
8. Raymond Garhoff, Détente and Confrontation: American-Soviet Relation from Nixon to Reagan (Washington, D.C.: Brooking Institution, 1985), 232-33. There is no indication of this in the more recently published Kissinger Transcripts. Garthoff was able to interview the aides who provided Henry Kissinger with the satellite photography and intercept.
9. James Mann, About Face (New York: Knopf, 1999), 58-59. The RAND analyst was Michael Pillsbury.
10. Quoted in Burr, The Kissinger Transcripts, 372.
11. Bernard Gwertzman, "U.S. Reported Acting to Strengthen Ties with Peking Regime," New York Times, June 26, 1978, 1, 7.
12. Ibid., 7.
13. (No author), "U.S., in Gesture to Peking, Drops Jet Sale to Taiwan," ibid., July 1, 1978, 2.
14. (No author), Agence France Presse (AFP), Paris, April 19, 1979, in United States Foreign Broadcast Information Service (FBIS), Daily Report: People's Republic of China [hereafter FBIS-CHI]-79-078 (April 20, 1979): B1.
15. For an analysis of differing recollections of the Perry visit, see Mann, About Face, 110-13.
16. This sentiment was conveyed to the author by Haig aide Jim Roche in a February 1982 conversation.
17. Author's conversation, June 1982.
18. The official was Roger Sullivan. In a previous position at the National Security Council during the Carter administration, Sullivan had visited the PRC to assess the needs of the PLA.
19. Xinhua (Beijing), June 10, 1981, in FBIS-CHI-81-111 (June 10, 1981): B1.
20. James Gerstenzang, "China's Military Tries to March Out of the Dark Ages - With U.S. Help," Los Angeles Times, November 27, 1986, I-A, 3.
21. (No author), "China's Great Leap Sideways," International Defense Review (Geneva), December 1984, 1789. See also Kenneth Munson, "Fishbed, Finback, and the Chinese Future," Jane's Defence Weekly (London), December 21, 1985, 1389.
22. (No author), "China's Great Leap Sideways," International Defense Review (Geneva), December 1984, 1789. See also Kenneth Munson, "Fishbed, Finback, and the Chinese Future," Jane's Defence Weekly (London), December 21, 1985, 1389.
23. From 1984 through 1988, the author served on the advisory panel to the U.S. Chief of Naval Operations with special responsibility for Asia. Unless otherwise specified, references to this period represent conversations and materials made available to the author in this capacity.
24. Harry Harding, A Fragile Relationship: The United States and China Since 1972 (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution, 1992), 121.
25. Michael Gordon, "Beijing Avoids Giving U.S. New Assurances on Missile Sales," New York Times, March 30, 1990, A8.
26. For a helpful chronology of U.S. technology transfers to China, see Bates Gill, "U.S.-China Technology Transfer: Annotated Timeline 1980-January 1998," in Rough Waters: Navigating the U.S.-China Security Agenda - A Handbook for Journalists, ed. Robert Leavitt (New York: Center for War Peace, and the News Media, New York University, 1998), 23-33.
27. See June Teufel Dreyer, "U.S.-China Military Relations: Sanctions or Rapprochement," In Depth, Spring 1991, 8-24, for a more complete treatment of the sanctions and how they were implemented.
28. Cited in Mann, About Face, 217.
29. In fairness, it should be pointed out that Beijing has shown no hesitation to criticize the treatment of blacks and other minority groups in the United States.
30. See Nicholas Kristof, "China Says U.S. Harasses Ship Bound for the Mideast," New York Times, August 9, 1993, A4; Nayan Chanda, "Drifting Apart," Far Eastern Economic Review, August 26, 1993, 10-11.
31. See Nicholas Kristof, "China Says U.S. Harasses Ship Bound for the Mideast," New York Times, August 9, 1993, A4; Nayan Chanda, "Drifting Apart," Far Eastern Economic Review, August 26, 1993, 10-11.
32. Patrick Tyler, "Chinese Test Atomic Bomb Underground: U.S. Urges Beijing to Join Moratorium," New York Times, October 8, 1994, A3.
33. Susumu Awanohara, "Uniforms Unite: Washington Seeks Closer Military Ties with China," Far Eastern Economic Review, October 14, 1993, 13.
34. Seth Faison, "American Warship Pays Shangha, a Call," New York Times, February 1, 1996, A4.
35. For a fuller d.scuss.on of CBMs as they relate to fi". AAi s Buildmg Metures°and «he People's Uberanon . conference on "The PRCs Reform: A Reappraisal After Twenty Years. National t nengch, University, Taipei. April 8. 1999).
36. »For a fuller d.scuss.on of CBMs as they relate to fi". AAi s Buildmg Metures°and «he People's Uberanon . conference on "The PRCs Reform: A Reappraisal After Twenty Years. National t nengch, University, Taipei. April 8. 1999).
37. Professor Lin Wen-cheng of National Sun Yat-sen University, Republic of China, points out that the PRC uses the Taiwan issue as a bargaining point to extract other concessions from the United States.
38. Matt Forney and Nayan Chanda, "Comrades in Arms: Russian Rapprochement Could Boost China's Clout," Far Eastern Economic Review, May 2, 1996, 17-18.
39. I am indebted to Professor Lowell Dittmer for this information.
40. Steven Erlanger, "U.S. Won't Punish China over Sale of Nuclear Gear," New York Times, May 11, 1996, A1, A4.
41. David Sanger, "China Arms Aides Are Sought by U.S. in Smuggling Plot," ibid., May 23, 1996, A1, A8. The CBS television series "Sixty Minutes" later did a segment on the odd events surrounding the sting operation.
42. (Unsigned editorial), "The Sanctity of Missile Secrets," New York Times, March 15, 1998, A24.
43. Joseph Kahn, "A Chinese Plot Is Easy to See - Maybe Too Easy," ibid., May 31, 1998, Sec. IV:5.
44. (No author), "U.S. 'Waters Down Policy' in Wake of Campaign Fund Row," South China Morning Post (Hong Kong), March 24, 1997, via Internet.
45. (No author), "Sino-U.S. Ties on an Upswing," The Straits Times (Singapore), April 4, 1998, via Internet.
46. Steven Erlanger, "As Clinton Trip Near, U.S. Wants Out of China Missile Sights," New York Times, June 14, 1998, Sec. I:18.
47. See, e.g., Peter Rodman, "Getting Serious about Security," ibid., July 2, 1997, A21.
48. Steven Erlanger, "Citing Gains, Clinton Says He Will Make China Visit," ibid., May 27, 1998, A5.
49. The "three no's" were no support for Taiwan's independence; no support for "two Chinas" or "one Taiwan, one China"; and no support for Taiwan's entry into international organizations tor which statehood is a requirement.
50. Report of the Select Committee on U.S. National Security and Military/Commercial Concerns with the People's Republic of China (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1999).
51. "Report to Congress Pursuant to the FY 1999 Appropriations Bill" (February 26, 1999), available at 〈;http://www/defenselink.mil/pubs/twstrait_02261999.html〉.
52. Barbara Opall-Rome, "PLA Pursues Acupuncture Warfare," Defense News, March 1, 1999, 4; An Weiping, "Developing Armaments by 'Leaps and Bounds'," Jiefangjun bao (Liberation Army Daily) (Beijing), April 6, 1999, 6, in FBIS-CHI, April 23, 1999, via Internet. The latter article emphasizes the need to develop "trump card weapons" (- sashoujian) selectively, since the PRC cannot afford to catch up with the unnamed enemy in all fields.
53. Barbara Opall-Rome, "PLA Pursues Acupuncture Warfare," Defense News, March 1, 1999, 4; An Weiping, "Developing Armaments by 'Leaps and Bounds'," Jiefangjun bao (Liberation Army Daily) (Beijing), April 6, 1999, 6, in FBIS-CHI, April 23, 1999, via Internet. The latter article emphasizes the need to develop "trump card weapons" (- sashoujian) selectively, since the PRC cannot afford to catch up with the unnamed enemy in all fields.
54. Ma Ling, "Author Discusses 'Unrestricted War' Book," Ta Kung Pao (Hong Kong), September 19, 1999, B3, in FBIS-CHI, October 5, 1999, via Internet. A book with this title was published in February 1999 by two air force senior colonels. The major argument of this publication is that China cannot afford high-tech combat and can, therefore, only deal with "superpowers" by whatever other expedients present themselves, including computer hackers, urban guerrilla warfare, and terrorist activities such as those practiced by Osama Bin Laden. See also (no author), "New Book Published by PLA Literature and Art Publishing House Calls for Countering Military Power by Hook or by Crook," Ming Pao (Hong Kong), July 2, 1999, A13, in FBIS-CHI, July 8, 1999, via Internet.
55. Ma Ling, "Author Discusses 'Unrestricted War' Book," Ta Kung Pao (Hong Kong), September 19, 1999, B3, in FBIS-CHI, October 5, 1999, via Internet. A book with this title was published in February 1999 by two air force senior colonels. The major argument of this publication is that China cannot afford high-tech combat and can, therefore, only deal with "superpowers" by whatever other expedients present themselves, including computer hackers, urban guerrilla warfare, and terrorist activities such as those practiced by Osama Bin Laden. See also (no author), "New Book Published by PLA Literature and Art Publishing House Calls for Countering Military Power by Hook or by Crook," Ming Pao (Hong Kong), July 2, 1999, A13, in FBIS-CHI, July 8, 1999, via Internet.
56. Qin Yonghua, "An Analysis of Operational Logistical Support on the Basis of a Review of the Kosovo War," Jiefangjun bao, August 17, 1999, 6, in FBIS-CHI, September 15, 1999, via Internet.
57. Pan Rui, "Take a Further Look at the Dual Character of U.S. Policy Toward China," Jiefang ribao (Liberation Daily) (Shanghai), May 22, 1999, 7, in FBIS-CHI, June 29, 1999, via Internet.
58. See, e.g., Richard Bernstein and Ross Munro, The Coming Conflict with China (New York: Knopf, 1997); and Edward Timperlake and William C. Triplett II, Red Dragon Rising: Communist China's Military Threat to America (Washington, D.C.: Regnery, 1999).
59. See, e.g., Richard Bernstein and Ross Munro, The Coming Conflict with China (New York: Knopf, 1997); and Edward Timperlake and William C. Triplett II, Red Dragon Rising: Communist China's Military Threat to America (Washington, D.C.: Regnery, 1999).
60. See, e.g., Edward Timperlake and William C. Triplett II, Year of the Rat: How Bill Clinton Compromised U.S. Security for Chinese Cash (Washington, D.C.: Regnery, 1998).
61. Peter Brookes, "Facing an Assertive China, U.S. Must Adopt Firm, But Constructive, Stance," Defense News, November 1, 1999, 17.
62. Glenn Schloss, "Beijing Allows U.S. Navy Warship to Visit SAR, Bars Patrol Plane," South China Morning Post, October 15, 1999, via Internet. The author does not find this U.S. threat very credible.
63. A retired air force officer argued that, while discussions with the PLA should be encouraged the United States should do so without helping the Chinese military to increase its warfighting capabilities. See Kenneth W. Allen, "U.S.-China Relations: Not a One-Way Street" (Stimson Center Report, December 10, 1999). A former army attaché to Beijing stated that "[The United States] should do nothing to improve the PLA's capability to wage war against Taiwan or U.S. friends and allies, its ability to project force, or its ability to repress the Chinese people." See Larry M. Wortzel, "Why Caution Is Needed in Military Contacts with China," Heritage Foundation Backgrounder (Washington, D.C.), no. 1340 (December 2, 1999): 5.
64. Steven Lee Myers, "Chinese General's Visit Raises Only Limited Hopes," New York Times, January 26, 2000, A9; AFP, "Buildup Arouses Concern," South China Morning Post, January 29, 2000.
65. Steven Lee Myers, "Chinese General's Visit Raises Only Limited Hopes," New York Times, January 26, 2000, A9; AFP, "Buildup Arouses Concern," South China Morning Post, January 29, 2000.
66. Larry Teo, "U.S. Defense Ties with China 'Will Be Back on Track'," The Straits Times, February 18, 2000.
67. Xinhua, February 21, 2000.
68. (No author), "The Hidden Meaning of Beijing's White Paper," available through 〈stratfor. com〉, February 28, 2000.
69. Barry Porter, "Beijing Invited to Join Security Hub in East Asia," South China Morning Post, April 1, 2000.
70. Thomas Ricks, "Taiwan Seen as Vulnerable to Attack," Washington Post, March 31, 2000, A1; Bill Gertz and Rowan Scarborough, "Inside the Ring: Taiwan Report Held," Washington Times, March 31, 2000.
71. Thomas Ricks, "Taiwan Seen as Vulnerable to Attack," Washington Post, March 31, 2000, A1; Bill Gertz and Rowan Scarborough, "Inside the Ring: Taiwan Report Held," Washington Times, March 31, 2000.
72. Craig S. Smith, "Envoy Asks Moderation on Taiwan, Rejects Portraying Beijing as 'Enemy'," New York Times, April 10, 2000, A8, quoting U.S. Ambassador Joseph Prueher.
73. Yan Xuetong, quoted by AFP, "Analyst Advocates Regional Alliances," Hong Kong Standard, March 8, 2000.
74. For a collection of these, see June Teufel Dreyer, "The PLA and Kosovo: A Strategy Debate," Issues & Studies 36, no. 1 (January, February 2000): 100-119.
75. Ronald Brownstein, "Bush Outlines Objectives on Foreign Policy," Los Angeles Times, November 20, 1999.
76. Zalmay Khalilbad, "Congage China" (Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Paper IP-187, 1999).
77. I am indebted to Professor John Hsieh of the University of South Carolina for this observation.
78. Xinhua, December 9, 1999, via Internet; Reuters, December 10, 1999, via Internet.
79. Xinhua, July 18, 2000, via Internet.
80. Yan Xuetong, "Trend of Changes in China's Security Environment for the New Century," Zhongguo pinglunchi (Hong Kong), May 5, 2000, 35-39, in FBIS-CHI, May 5, 2000, via Internet.