Rationality and sovereignty support in Quebec

Canadian Journal of Political Science

Volumn 31, Issue 1, 1998, Pages 29-52

  Howe, Paul ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA   (Canada)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 0040944119     PISSN: 00084239     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1017/s0008423900008672     Document Type: Article

References (54)

1. Survey-based analysis along these lines can be found in André Blais and Richard Nadeau, "To Be or Not to Be Sovereigntist: Quebeckers' Perennial Dilemma," Canadian Public Policy 28 (1992), 89-103; Pierre Martin, "Générations politiques, rationalité économique et appui à la souveraineté au Québec," this JOURNAL 27 (1994), 345-59; Richard Nadeau and Christopher J. Fleury, "Gains linguistiques anticipés et appui à la souveraineté du Québec," this JOURNAL 28 (1995), 35-50; André Blais, Pierre Martin and Richard Nadeau, "Attentes économiques et linguistiques et appui à la souveraineté du Québec: une analyse prospective et comparative," this JOURNAL 28 (1995), 637-57; and Richard Johnston, André Blais, Elisabeth Gidengil and Neil Nevitte, The Challenge of Direct Democracy: The 1992 Canadian Referendum (Montreal: McGill-Queen's University Press, 1996), 195-201. Other works, which do not draw on survey evidence, but which employ a similar analytical framework, include Hudson Meadwell, "The Politics of Nationalism in Quebec," World Politics 45 (1993), 203-41; Stéphane Dion, "Explaining Quebec Nationalism," in R. Kent Weaver, ed., The Collapse of Canada? (Washington, D.C.: The Brookings Institution, 1992); and Stéphane Dion, "Why Is Secession Difficult in Well-Established Democracies? Lessons from Quebec," British Journal of Political Science 26 (1996), 269-83.
2. Survey-based analysis along these lines can be found in André Blais and Richard Nadeau, "To Be or Not to Be Sovereigntist: Quebeckers' Perennial Dilemma," Canadian Public Policy 28 (1992), 89-103; Pierre Martin, "Générations politiques, rationalité économique et appui à la souveraineté au Québec," this JOURNAL 27 (1994), 345-59; Richard Nadeau and Christopher J. Fleury, "Gains linguistiques anticipés et appui à la souveraineté du Québec," this JOURNAL 28 (1995), 35-50; André Blais, Pierre Martin and Richard Nadeau, "Attentes économiques et linguistiques et appui à la souveraineté du Québec: une analyse prospective et comparative," this JOURNAL 28 (1995), 637-57; and Richard Johnston, André Blais, Elisabeth Gidengil and Neil Nevitte, The Challenge of Direct Democracy: The 1992 Canadian Referendum (Montreal: McGill-Queen's University Press, 1996), 195-201. Other works, which do not draw on survey evidence, but which employ a similar analytical framework, include Hudson Meadwell, "The Politics of Nationalism in Quebec," World Politics 45 (1993), 203-41; Stéphane Dion, "Explaining Quebec Nationalism," in R. Kent Weaver, ed., The Collapse of Canada? (Washington, D.C.: The Brookings Institution, 1992); and Stéphane Dion, "Why Is Secession Difficult in Well-Established Democracies? Lessons from Quebec," British Journal of Political Science 26 (1996), 269-83.
3. Survey-based analysis along these lines can be found in André Blais and Richard Nadeau, "To Be or Not to Be Sovereigntist: Quebeckers' Perennial Dilemma," Canadian Public Policy 28 (1992), 89-103; Pierre Martin, "Générations politiques, rationalité économique et appui à la souveraineté au Québec," this JOURNAL 27 (1994), 345-59; Richard Nadeau and Christopher J. Fleury, "Gains linguistiques anticipés et appui à la souveraineté du Québec," this JOURNAL 28 (1995), 35-50; André Blais, Pierre Martin and Richard Nadeau, "Attentes économiques et linguistiques et appui à la souveraineté du Québec: une analyse prospective et comparative," this JOURNAL 28 (1995), 637-57; and Richard Johnston, André Blais, Elisabeth Gidengil and Neil Nevitte, The Challenge of Direct Democracy: The 1992 Canadian Referendum (Montreal: McGill-Queen's University Press, 1996), 195-201. Other works, which do not draw on survey evidence, but which employ a similar analytical framework, include Hudson Meadwell, "The Politics of Nationalism in Quebec," World Politics 45 (1993), 203-41; Stéphane Dion, "Explaining Quebec Nationalism," in R. Kent Weaver, ed., The Collapse of Canada? (Washington, D.C.: The Brookings Institution, 1992); and Stéphane Dion, "Why Is Secession Difficult in Well-Established Democracies? Lessons from Quebec," British Journal of Political Science 26 (1996), 269-83.
4. Survey-based analysis along these lines can be found in André Blais and Richard Nadeau, "To Be or Not to Be Sovereigntist: Quebeckers' Perennial Dilemma," Canadian Public Policy 28 (1992), 89-103; Pierre Martin, "Générations politiques, rationalité économique et appui à la souveraineté au Québec," this JOURNAL 27 (1994), 345-59; Richard Nadeau and Christopher J. Fleury, "Gains linguistiques anticipés et appui à la souveraineté du Québec," this JOURNAL 28 (1995), 35-50; André Blais, Pierre Martin and Richard Nadeau, "Attentes économiques et linguistiques et appui à la souveraineté du Québec: une analyse prospective et comparative," this JOURNAL 28 (1995), 637-57; and Richard Johnston, André Blais, Elisabeth Gidengil and Neil Nevitte, The Challenge of Direct Democracy: The 1992 Canadian Referendum (Montreal: McGill-Queen's University Press, 1996), 195-201. Other works, which do not draw on survey evidence, but which employ a similar analytical framework, include Hudson Meadwell, "The Politics of Nationalism in Quebec," World Politics 45 (1993), 203-41; Stéphane Dion, "Explaining Quebec Nationalism," in R. Kent Weaver, ed., The Collapse of Canada? (Washington, D.C.: The Brookings Institution, 1992); and Stéphane Dion, "Why Is Secession Difficult in Well-Established Democracies? Lessons from Quebec," British Journal of Political Science 26 (1996), 269-83.
5. Survey-based analysis along these lines can be found in André Blais and Richard Nadeau, "To Be or Not to Be Sovereigntist: Quebeckers' Perennial Dilemma," Canadian Public Policy 28 (1992), 89-103; Pierre Martin, "Générations politiques, rationalité économique et appui à la souveraineté au Québec," this JOURNAL 27 (1994), 345-59; Richard Nadeau and Christopher J. Fleury, "Gains linguistiques anticipés et appui à la souveraineté du Québec," this JOURNAL 28 (1995), 35-50; André Blais, Pierre Martin and Richard Nadeau, "Attentes économiques et linguistiques et appui à la souveraineté du Québec: une analyse prospective et comparative," this JOURNAL 28 (1995), 637-57; and Richard Johnston, André Blais, Elisabeth Gidengil and Neil Nevitte, The Challenge of Direct Democracy: The 1992 Canadian Referendum (Montreal: McGill-Queen's University Press, 1996), 195-201. Other works, which do not draw on survey evidence, but which employ a similar analytical framework, include Hudson Meadwell, "The Politics of Nationalism in Quebec," World Politics 45 (1993), 203-41; Stéphane Dion, "Explaining Quebec Nationalism," in R. Kent Weaver, ed., The Collapse of Canada? (Washington, D.C.: The Brookings Institution, 1992); and Stéphane Dion, "Why Is Secession Difficult in Well-Established Democracies? Lessons from Quebec," British Journal of Political Science 26 (1996), 269-83.
6. Survey-based analysis along these lines can be found in André Blais and Richard Nadeau, "To Be or Not to Be Sovereigntist: Quebeckers' Perennial Dilemma," Canadian Public Policy 28 (1992), 89-103; Pierre Martin, "Générations politiques, rationalité économique et appui à la souveraineté au Québec," this JOURNAL 27 (1994), 345-59; Richard Nadeau and Christopher J. Fleury, "Gains linguistiques anticipés et appui à la souveraineté du Québec," this JOURNAL 28 (1995), 35-50; André Blais, Pierre Martin and Richard Nadeau, "Attentes économiques et linguistiques et appui à la souveraineté du Québec: une analyse prospective et comparative," this JOURNAL 28 (1995), 637-57; and Richard Johnston, André Blais, Elisabeth Gidengil and Neil Nevitte, The Challenge of Direct Democracy: The 1992 Canadian Referendum (Montreal: McGill-Queen's University Press, 1996), 195-201. Other works, which do not draw on survey evidence, but which employ a similar analytical framework, include Hudson Meadwell, "The Politics of Nationalism in Quebec," World Politics 45 (1993), 203-41; Stéphane Dion, "Explaining Quebec Nationalism," in R. Kent Weaver, ed., The Collapse of Canada? (Washington, D.C.: The Brookings Institution, 1992); and Stéphane Dion, "Why Is Secession Difficult in Well-Established Democracies? Lessons from Quebec," British Journal of Political Science 26 (1996), 269-83.
7. Survey-based analysis along these lines can be found in André Blais and Richard Nadeau, "To Be or Not to Be Sovereigntist: Quebeckers' Perennial Dilemma," Canadian Public Policy 28 (1992), 89-103; Pierre Martin, "Générations politiques, rationalité économique et appui à la souveraineté au Québec," this JOURNAL 27 (1994), 345-59; Richard Nadeau and Christopher J. Fleury, "Gains linguistiques anticipés et appui à la souveraineté du Québec," this JOURNAL 28 (1995), 35-50; André Blais, Pierre Martin and Richard Nadeau, "Attentes économiques et linguistiques et appui à la souveraineté du Québec: une analyse prospective et comparative," this JOURNAL 28 (1995), 637-57; and Richard Johnston, André Blais, Elisabeth Gidengil and Neil Nevitte, The Challenge of Direct Democracy: The 1992 Canadian Referendum (Montreal: McGill-Queen's University Press, 1996), 195-201. Other works, which do not draw on survey evidence, but which employ a similar analytical framework, include Hudson Meadwell, "The Politics of Nationalism in Quebec," World Politics 45 (1993), 203-41; Stéphane Dion, "Explaining Quebec Nationalism," in R. Kent Weaver, ed., The Collapse of Canada? (Washington, D.C.: The Brookings Institution, 1992); and Stéphane Dion, "Why Is Secession Difficult in Well-Established Democracies? Lessons from Quebec," British Journal of Political Science 26 (1996), 269-83.
8. Survey-based analysis along these lines can be found in André Blais and Richard Nadeau, "To Be or Not to Be Sovereigntist: Quebeckers' Perennial Dilemma," Canadian Public Policy 28 (1992), 89-103; Pierre Martin, "Générations politiques, rationalité économique et appui à la souveraineté au Québec," this JOURNAL 27 (1994), 345-59; Richard Nadeau and Christopher J. Fleury, "Gains linguistiques anticipés et appui à la souveraineté du Québec," this JOURNAL 28 (1995), 35-50; André Blais, Pierre Martin and Richard Nadeau, "Attentes économiques et linguistiques et appui à la souveraineté du Québec: une analyse prospective et comparative," this JOURNAL 28 (1995), 637-57; and Richard Johnston, André Blais, Elisabeth Gidengil and Neil Nevitte, The Challenge of Direct Democracy: The 1992 Canadian Referendum (Montreal: McGill-Queen's University Press, 1996), 195-201. Other works, which do not draw on survey evidence, but which employ a similar analytical framework, include Hudson Meadwell, "The Politics of Nationalism in Quebec," World Politics 45 (1993), 203-41; Stéphane Dion, "Explaining Quebec Nationalism," in R. Kent Weaver, ed., The Collapse of Canada? (Washington, D.C.: The Brookings Institution, 1992); and Stéphane Dion, "Why Is Secession Difficult in Well-Established Democracies? Lessons from Quebec," British Journal of Political Science 26 (1996), 269-83.
9. This implication is spelled out in Nadeau and Fleury, "Gains linguistiques," 50, and in Martin, "Générations politiques, rationalité économique et appui à la souveraineté au Quebec," 358.
10. This implication is spelled out in Nadeau and Fleury, "Gains linguistiques," 50, and in Martin, "Générations politiques, rationalité économique et appui à la souveraineté au Quebec," 358.
11. Data from the 1992-1993 Canadian Referendum and Election Survey were provided by the Institute for Social Research, York University. The survey was funded by the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (SSHRCC), grant numbers 411-92-0019 and 421-92-0026, and was completed for Richard Johnston, André Blais, Henry Brady, Elisabeth Gidengil and Neil Nevitte. The current author alone is responsible for the analyses and interpretations presented here.
12. The 1,091 francophone respondents from Quebec used in the analysis include 784 from the pre-referendum survey and 307 from the campaign-period survey. The two groups were combined in order to maximize the sample size. A large sample size is particularly important when measuring interaction effects, as discussed below in this article. For the campaign-period respondents, data for the national identity variable are taken from the "post-election survey," a follow-up that took place very shortly after the election; this is because the relevant questions were not asked in the campaign-period survey. It is for this reason that pre-referendum data have been used in preference to campaign-period data, where both are available for a particular respondent. For full details of the CRES design, see David A. Northrup and Anne E. Owram, The 1993 Canadian Election Study, Incorporating the 1992 Referendum Survey on the Charlottetown Accord: Technical Documentation (Toronto: Institute for Social Research, York University, 1994).
13. For an analysis of differences of opinion among Yes voters in the 1980 Quebec referendum, see Richard Hamilton and Maurice Pinard, "Les Québécois votent NON: le sens et la portée du vote," in Jean Crête, ed., Comportement électoral au Québec (Chicoutimi: Gaëtan Morin, 1984). Hamilton and Pinard estimate that two fifths of Yes voters were hoping, first and foremost, to set in motion negotiations for a renewed federalism. Large numbers of Yes voters were also, they suggest, ill-informed, believing that Quebec would remain a province of Canada under sovereignty-association (361). Such misperceptions are still widespread today. For example, according to a 1994 poll, many Quebeckers think that in a "sovereign" Quebec they will continue to pay Canadian taxes (26%), send MPs to Ottawa (27%) and "be part of Canada" (42%) (see The Globe and Mail [Toronto], July 15, 1994, A4). These figures indicate that some sovereignty supporters actually want greater powers and an enhanced status for Quebec, rather than independence proper.
14. For an analysis of differences of opinion among Yes voters in the 1980 Quebec referendum, see Richard Hamilton and Maurice Pinard, "Les Québécois votent NON: le sens et la portée du vote," in Jean Crête, ed., Comportement électoral au Québec (Chicoutimi: Gaëtan Morin, 1984). Hamilton and Pinard estimate that two fifths of Yes voters were hoping, first and foremost, to set in motion negotiations for a renewed federalism. Large numbers of Yes voters were also, they suggest, ill-informed, believing that Quebec would remain a province of Canada under sovereignty-association (361). Such misperceptions are still widespread today. For example, according to a 1994 poll, many Quebeckers think that in a "sovereign" Quebec they will continue to pay Canadian taxes (26%), send MPs to Ottawa (27%) and "be part of Canada" (42%) (see The Globe and Mail [Toronto], July 15, 1994, A4). These figures indicate that some sovereignty supporters actually want greater powers and an enhanced status for Quebec, rather than independence proper.
15. As part of a question wording experiment by the designers of the 1992-1993 CRES, half of the respondents in the pre-referendum survey, selected at random, were asked a soft version of the sovereignty question, which omitted the phrase "that is, Quebec is no longer a part of Canada." Among this group, mean support for sovereignty was markedly higher (0.56 versus 0.46 for those asked the question with the phrase included). In order to see if this variation in question wording was important, the analysis conducted for this study was carried out separately for three different subgroups: the two groups of pre-referendum respondents and the campaign-period respondents (who were also asked the hard version of the sovereignty question). No differences relevant to the results reported here were observed.
16. The data in this and all subsequent tables are based on ordinary least-square regression. Weights have been applied in all analyses to compensate for differences in the probability of being selected as a respondent in households of varying size. Though such household weights are provided in the CRES data file, new ones were required for the present analysis because of the particular mix of respondents used. These were calculated in the manner described in Northrup and Owram, The 1993 Canadian Election Study, 9-11.
17. The precise question wording: "In your opinion, is the French language threatened in Quebec?"
18. The precise question wording: "If Quebec separates from Canada, do you think your standard of living will get better, get worse, or stay about the same as now?" Respondents answering "get better" were then asked, "A lot better or only a little better?" Respondents answering "get worse" were asked, "A lot worse or only a little worse?" Those who answered "don't know" to these follow-up questions were coded as "a little better" and "a little worse."
19. The "get better" and "stay the same" categories are collapsed into one because there is relatively little difference in sovereignty support between the two. As others have argued and demonstrated, it is fear of economic loss more than anticipation of economic gain that seems to affect support for sovereignty in Quebec. See Martin, "Générations politiques, rationalité économique et appui à la souveraineté au Quebec," 354-55.
20. The precise wording for the two questions is, "How do you feel about Quebec [Canada]?" with a feeling thermometer, running from 0 to 100, used to measure responses.
21. For example, a CROP survey from September 1993 asked "Si le Québec se sépare du Canada, pensez-vous que la situation du français au Québec s'améliorera, restera la même ou se détériorera?" Multivariate analysis, incorporating identity and economic expectations, found a difference of 0.21 (where the dependent variable was coded 0 and 1) between those who thought the situation of the French language would deteriorate in a separate Quebec and those who thought it would improve. With the same controls in place, it also found a coefficient of 0.08 for a variable based on the same question as that used in the current analysis. See Nadeau and Fleury, "Gains linguistiques," 42-43.
22. See, for example, Donald R. Kinder and D. Roderick Kiewet, "Sociotropic Politics: The American Case," British Journal of Political Science 11 (1981), 129-61.
23. Ibid., 157.
24. See David Sanders, David Marsh and Hugh Ward, "The Electoral Impact of Press Coverage of the British Economy, 1979-87," British Journal of Political Science 23 (1993), 191; and Harold D. Clarke and Marianne C. Stewart, "Economic Evaluations, Prime Ministerial Approval and Governing Party Support: Rival Models Reconsidered," British Journal of Political Science 25 (1995), 147.
25. See David Sanders, David Marsh and Hugh Ward, "The Electoral Impact of Press Coverage of the British Economy, 1979-87," British Journal of Political Science 23 (1993), 191; and Harold D. Clarke and Marianne C. Stewart, "Economic Evaluations, Prime Ministerial Approval and Governing Party Support: Rival Models Reconsidered," British Journal of Political Science 25 (1995), 147.
26. See, for example, Michael S. Lewis-Beck, "Comparative Economic Voting: Britain, France, Germany, Italy," American Journal of Political Science 30 (1986), 315-46.
27. Nadeau and Fleury, "Gains linguistiques," Table 2, 43.
28. Martin, "Générations politiques, rationalité economique et appui à la souveraineté au Québec," Table 1, 354.
29. Compare, for example, the bivariate and multivariate results presented in Biais and Nadeau, "To Be or Not to Be Sovereigntist"; Nadeau and Fleury, "Gains linguistiques"; and Biais et al., "Attentes économiques et linguistiques et appui à la souveraineté du Québec."
30. Compare, for example, the bivariate and multivariate results presented in Biais and Nadeau, "To Be or Not to Be Sovereigntist"; Nadeau and Fleury, "Gains linguistiques"; and Biais et al., "Attentes économiques et linguistiques et appui à la souveraineté du Québec."
31. Compare, for example, the bivariate and multivariate results presented in Biais and Nadeau, "To Be or Not to Be Sovereigntist"; Nadeau and Fleury, "Gains linguistiques"; and Biais et al., "Attentes économiques et linguistiques et appui à la souveraineté du Québec."
32. It is also possible that the causation runs the other way. A sense that one's standard of living would improve in an independent Quebec might tend to make people feel more Québécois (if this were so, the significant decrease in the coefficient associated with the economics variable would indicate that economic perceptions, in part, influence sovereignty support only to the extent they alter national identity). The assumption here is that the formation of national identity is likely to be causally prior to assessments of the tangible consequences of sovereignty. This interpretation seems consistent with common sense. National identity is something that people feel from a relatively early age (childhood or adolescence), whereas evaluation of technical questions like the economic impact of sovereignty is something people would typically start to reflect on at a later stage of life (early adulthood and on, say). This is, however, an area that merits further investigation. Survey research might play its part by asking respondents retrospective questions about these matters. For example: When did you first become aware of your Québécois identity? Did you support sovereignty at that point? Did economic factors play a role in your decision to support sovereignty?
33. The number of campaign-period respondents in Table 3 is larger than reported above. This is because those who participated in both the pre-referendum and campaign-period surveys, previously classified as pre-referendum respondents, are now classified as campaign-period respondents.
34. Others also emphasize the comparative element in the reasoning that underwrites support for sovereignty. Stéphane Dion, for example, points to the confidence and fear components of such reasoning, by which he means "the fear of being weakened within the union, and the confidence of increasing the group's well being outside the union" ("Why Is Secession Difficult in Well-Established Democracies?" 273). People, in other words, compare the independence scenario to their current (and future) situation as part of the larger union. ion, and if so, how? The answer to such questions might be found by examining potential biases in the reporting and analysis of different media outlets on the sovereignty issue (through content analysis, for example) and investigating patterns of exposure to those media outlets (through survey analysis). Do supporters of Quebec sovereignty, for example, primarily read newspapers that largely report positive prognostications concerning the economic impact of sovereignty? An example of this type of analysis, which addresses the influence of media coverage on the formation of personal economic expectations in the British public, can be found in Sanders et al., "The Electoral Impact of Press Coverage of the British Economy," 175-210.
35. Others also emphasize the comparative element in the reasoning that underwrites support for sovereignty. Stéphane Dion, for example, points to the confidence and fear components of such reasoning, by which he means "the fear of being weakened within the union, and the confidence of increasing the group's well being outside the union" ("Why Is Secession Difficult in Well-Established Democracies?" 273). People, in other words, compare the independence scenario to their current (and future) situation as part of the larger union. ion, and if so, how? The answer to such questions might be found by examining potential biases in the reporting and analysis of different media outlets on the sovereignty issue (through content analysis, for example) and investigating patterns of exposure to those media outlets (through survey analysis). Do supporters of Quebec sovereignty, for example, primarily read newspapers that largely report positive prognostications concerning the economic impact of sovereignty? An example of this type of analysis, which addresses the influence of media coverage on the formation of personal economic expectations in the British public, can be found in Sanders et al., "The Electoral Impact of Press Coverage of the British Economy," 175-210.
36. Mark Peffley, Stanley Feldman and Lee Sigelman, "Economic Conditions and Party Competence: Processes of Belief Revision," The Journal of Politics 49 (1987), 100-21; Pamela Johnston Conover, Stanley Feldman and Kathleen Knight, "The Personal and Political Underpinnings of Economic Forecasts," American Journal of Political Science 31 (1987), 559-83; and Shaun Bowler, "Comparative Economic Assessments and the Endogeneity of Left/Right Self-Placement: A Research Note," European Journal of Political Research 17 (1989), 35-49. On methods of measuring respondent uncertainty in survey research, see R. Michael Alvarez and Charles H. Franklin, "Uncertainty and Political Perceptions," The Journal of Politics 56 (1994), 671-88.
37. Mark Peffley, Stanley Feldman and Lee Sigelman, "Economic Conditions and Party Competence: Processes of Belief Revision," The Journal of Politics 49 (1987), 100-21; Pamela Johnston Conover, Stanley Feldman and Kathleen Knight, "The Personal and Political Underpinnings of Economic Forecasts," American Journal of Political Science 31 (1987), 559-83; and Shaun Bowler, "Comparative Economic Assessments and the Endogeneity of Left/Right Self-Placement: A Research Note," European Journal of Political Research 17 (1989), 35-49. On methods of measuring respondent uncertainty in survey research, see R. Michael Alvarez and Charles H. Franklin, "Uncertainty and Political Perceptions," The Journal of Politics 56 (1994), 671-88.
38. Mark Peffley, Stanley Feldman and Lee Sigelman, "Economic Conditions and Party Competence: Processes of Belief Revision," The Journal of Politics 49 (1987), 100-21; Pamela Johnston Conover, Stanley Feldman and Kathleen Knight, "The Personal and Political Underpinnings of Economic Forecasts," American Journal of Political Science 31 (1987), 559-83; and Shaun Bowler, "Comparative Economic Assessments and the Endogeneity of Left/Right Self-Placement: A Research Note," European Journal of Political Research 17 (1989), 35-49. On methods of measuring respondent uncertainty in survey research, see R. Michael Alvarez and Charles H. Franklin, "Uncertainty and Political Perceptions," The Journal of Politics 56 (1994), 671-88.
39. Mark Peffley, Stanley Feldman and Lee Sigelman, "Economic Conditions and Party Competence: Processes of Belief Revision," The Journal of Politics 49 (1987), 100-21; Pamela Johnston Conover, Stanley Feldman and Kathleen Knight, "The Personal and Political Underpinnings of Economic Forecasts," American Journal of Political Science 31 (1987), 559-83; and Shaun Bowler, "Comparative Economic Assessments and the Endogeneity of Left/Right Self-Placement: A Research Note," European Journal of Political Research 17 (1989), 35-49. On methods of measuring respondent uncertainty in survey research, see R. Michael Alvarez and Charles H. Franklin, "Uncertainty and Political Perceptions," The Journal of Politics 56 (1994), 671-88.
40. Conover et al., "The Personal and Political Underpinnings of Economic Forecasts," 565; Peffley et al., "Economic Conditions and Party Competence," 106.
41. Conover et al., "The Personal and Political Underpinnings of Economic Forecasts," 565; Peffley et al., "Economic Conditions and Party Competence," 106.
42. This assumes, of course, that voting choices depend, at least partly, on retrospective evaluations. Some would contend that prospective assessments are dominant. See, for example, Richard Nadeau, Richard G. Niemi and Timothy Amato, "Prospective and Comparative or Retrospective and Individual? Party Leaders and Party Support in Great Britain," British Journal of Political Science 26 (1996), 245-58.
43. Bowler, for example, looks at what is presumably a relatively intractable opinion, people's self-placement on a left-right ideological scale ("Comparative Economic Assessments and the Endogeneity of Left/Right Self-Placement").
44. In some cases, researchers have examined partisanship (that is, party identification), a more deeply entrenched attitude, to see whether it causes, or is caused by, issue evaluations. Views on the matter vary: see, for example, Morris P. Fiorina, Retrospective Voting in American National Elections (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1981), 65-83; and Paul F. Whiteley, "The Causal Relationships between Issues, Candidate Evaluations, Party Identification, and Vote Choice - The View from 'Rolling Thunder,'" The Journal of Politics 50 (1988), 961-84.
45. In some cases, researchers have examined partisanship (that is, party identification), a more deeply entrenched attitude, to see whether it causes, or is caused by, issue evaluations. Views on the matter vary: see, for example, Morris P. Fiorina, Retrospective Voting in American National Elections (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1981), 65-83; and Paul F. Whiteley, "The Causal Relationships between Issues, Candidate Evaluations, Party Identification, and Vote Choice -The View from 'Rolling Thunder,'" The Journal of Politics 50 (1988), 961-84.
46. David Easton, A System Analysis of Political Life (New York: Wiley, 1965); and David Easton, "A Re-Assessment of the Concept of Political Support," British Journal of Political Science 5 (1975), 435-57. For an application of Easton's model to the Quebec political system, see Jon H. Pammett, Jane Jenson, Harold D. Clarke and Lawrence Leduc, "Soutien politique et comportement électoral lors du référendum québécois," in Crête, ed., Comportement électoral au Québec, 387-419.
47. David Easton, A System Analysis of Political Life (New York: Wiley, 1965); and David Easton, "A Re-Assessment of the Concept of Political Support," British Journal of Political Science 5 (1975), 435-57. For an application of Easton's model to the Quebec political system, see Jon H. Pammett, Jane Jenson, Harold D. Clarke and Lawrence Leduc, "Soutien politique et comportement électoral lors du référendum québécois," in Crête, ed., Comportement électoral au Québec, 387-419.
48. David Easton, A System Analysis of Political Life (New York: Wiley, 1965); and David Easton, "A Re-Assessment of the Concept of Political Support," British Journal of Political Science 5 (1975), 435-57. For an application of Easton's model to the Quebec political system, see Jon H. Pammett, Jane Jenson, Harold D. Clarke and Lawrence Leduc, "Soutien politique et comportement électoral lors du référendum québécois," in Crête, ed., Comportement électoral au Québec, 387-419.
49. Just as Easton suggests that diffuse support for the political community is generally more stable than specific support for a governing authority ("A Re-Assessment of the Concept of Political Support," 444).
50. Richard Nadeau, "Le virage souverainiste des québécois, 1980-1990," Recherches sociographiques 33 (1992), 15-16. An analysis tracing support for Quebec "separation" within different birth cohorts, from 1962 to 1994, can be found in Paul Howe, "Radicals, Moderates and the Rise of Quebec Nationalism," paper presented at the annual meeting of the Canadian Political Science Association, Montreal, 1995, Table 1, 24; see also 11-14. The latter results suggest that birth cohort effects have been very pronounced. There was a jump in ponent of that variable. These predicted values would then be regressed on sovereignty support, to estimate the impact of the exogenously determined component of people's standard of living expectations on the dependent variable. Any potential reverse causation would thereby be removed, and a better estimate would be generated of the extent to which economic expectations are a cause rather than an effect of sovereignty support. For more technical discussions of the two-stage least-squares regression technique, see Christopher H. Achen, The Statistical Analysis of Quasi-Experiments (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1986), chap. 3; and Marija J. Norusis, SPSS Professional Statistics, 6.1 (Chicago: SPSS, 1994), chap. 9. An example of the technique can be found in Henry E. Brady, Sidney Verba and Kay Lehman Schlozman, "Beyond SES: A Resource Model of Political Mobilization," American Political Science Review 89 (1995), 271-94.
51. Richard Nadeau, "Le virage souverainiste des québécois, 1980-1990," Recherches sociographiques 33 (1992), 15-16. An analysis tracing support for Quebec "separation" within different birth cohorts, from 1962 to 1994, can be found in Paul Howe, "Radicals, Moderates and the Rise of Quebec Nationalism," paper presented at the annual meeting of the Canadian Political Science Association, Montreal, 1995, Table 1, 24; see also 11-14. The latter results suggest that birth cohort effects have been very pronounced. There was a jump in ponent of that variable. These predicted values would then be regressed on sovereignty support, to estimate the impact of the exogenously determined component of people's standard of living expectations on the dependent variable. Any potential reverse causation would thereby be removed, and a better estimate would be generated of the extent to which economic expectations are a cause rather than an effect of sovereignty support. For more technical discussions of the two-stage least-squares regression technique, see Christopher H. Achen, The Statistical Analysis of Quasi-Experiments (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1986), chap. 3; and Marija J. Norusis, SPSS Professional Statistics, 6.1 (Chicago: SPSS, 1994), chap. 9. An example of the technique can be found in Henry E. Brady, Sidney Verba and Kay Lehman Schlozman, "Beyond SES: A Resource Model of Political Mobilization," American Political Science Review 89 (1995), 271-94.
52. Richard Nadeau, "Le virage souverainiste des québécois, 1980-1990," Recherches sociographiques 33 (1992), 15-16. An analysis tracing support for Quebec "separation" within different birth cohorts, from 1962 to 1994, can be found in Paul Howe, "Radicals, Moderates and the Rise of Quebec Nationalism," paper presented at the annual meeting of the Canadian Political Science Association, Montreal, 1995, Table 1, 24; see also 11-14. The latter results suggest that birth cohort effects have been very pronounced. There was a jump in ponent of that variable. These predicted values would then be regressed on sovereignty support, to estimate the impact of the exogenously determined component of people's standard of living expectations on the dependent variable. Any potential reverse causation would thereby be removed, and a better estimate would be generated of the extent to which economic expectations are a cause rather than an effect of sovereignty support. For more technical discussions of the two-stage least-squares regression technique, see Christopher H. Achen, The Statistical Analysis of Quasi-Experiments (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1986), chap. 3; and Marija J. Norusis, SPSS Professional Statistics, 6.1 (Chicago: SPSS, 1994), chap. 9. An example of the technique can be found in Henry E. Brady, Sidney Verba and Kay Lehman Schlozman, "Beyond SES: A Resource Model of Political Mobilization," American Political Science Review 89 (1995), 271-94.
53. Richard Nadeau, "Le virage souverainiste des québécois, 1980-1990," Recherches sociographiques 33 (1992), 15-16. An analysis tracing support for Quebec "separation" within different birth cohorts, from 1962 to 1994, can be found in Paul Howe, "Radicals, Moderates and the Rise of Quebec Nationalism," paper presented at the annual meeting of the Canadian Political Science Association, Montreal, 1995, Table 1, 24; see also 11-14. The latter results suggest that birth cohort effects have been very pronounced. There was a jump in ponent of that variable. These predicted values would then be regressed on sovereignty support, to estimate the impact of the exogenously determined component of people's standard of living expectations on the dependent variable. Any potential reverse causation would thereby be removed, and a better estimate would be generated of the extent to which economic expectations are a cause rather than an effect of sovereignty support. For more technical discussions of the two-stage least-squares regression technique, see Christopher H. Achen, The Statistical Analysis of Quasi-Experiments (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1986), chap. 3; and Marija J. Norusis, SPSS Professional Statistics, 6.1 (Chicago: SPSS, 1994), chap. 9. An example of the technique can be found in Henry E. Brady, Sidney Verba and Kay Lehman Schlozman, "Beyond SES: A Resource Model of Political Mobilization," American Political Science Review 89 (1995), 271-94.
54. Richard Nadeau, "Le virage souverainiste des québécois, 1980-1990," Recherches sociographiques 33 (1992), 15-16. An analysis tracing support for Quebec "separation" within different birth cohorts, from 1962 to 1994, can be found in Paul Howe, "Radicals, Moderates and the Rise of Quebec Nationalism," paper presented at the annual meeting of the Canadian Political Science Association, Montreal, 1995, Table 1, 24; see also 11-14. The latter results suggest that birth cohort effects have been very pronounced. There was a jump in ponent of that variable. These predicted values would then be regressed on sovereignty support, to estimate the impact of the exogenously determined component of people's standard of living expectations on the dependent variable. Any potential reverse causation would thereby be removed, and a better estimate would be generated of the extent to which economic expectations are a cause rather than an effect of sovereignty support. For more technical discussions of the two-stage least-squares regression technique, see Christopher H. Achen, The Statistical Analysis of Quasi-Experiments (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1986), chap. 3; and Marija J. Norusis, SPSS Professional Statistics, 6.1 (Chicago: SPSS, 1994), chap. 9. An example of the technique can be found in Henry E. Brady, Sidney Verba and Kay Lehman Schlozman, "Beyond SES: A Resource Model of Political Mobilization," American Political Science Review 89 (1995), 271-94.