Attitude towards risk-taking and individual choice in the Quebec referendum on sovereignty

British Journal of Political Science

Volumn 29, Issue 3, 1999, Pages 523-539

  Nadeau, Richard ^a   Martin, Pierre ^a   Blais, André ^a  

^a NONE

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 0040792339     PISSN: 00071234     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1017/S0007123499000241     Document Type: Article

References (67)

1. On this type of decision situation, see James H. Kuklinski, Daniel S. Metlay and W.D. Kay 'Citizen Knowledge on the Complex Issue of Nuclear Energy', American Journal of Political Science, 26 (1982), 615-42.
2. Paul M. Sniderman, Richard A. Brody and Philip E. Tetlock, Reasoning and Choice: Explorations in Political Psychology (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1991), p. 10. According to Delli Carpini and Keeter, most recent studies have shown that 'realistic theories of voting must allow for the possibility that citizens differ in the criteria they employ in voting' (Michael X. Delli Carpini and Scott Keeter, What Americans Know About Politics and Why it Matters (New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 1996), p. 358). On this notion, see also: James A. Stimson, 'Belief Systems: Constraint, Complexity and the 1972 Election', American Journal of Political Science, 19 (1975), 393-417; Kathleen Knight, 'Ideology in the 1980 Election: Ideological Sophistication Does Matter', Journal of Politics, 47 (1985), 828-53; Douglas Rivers, 'Heterogeneity in Models of Political Choice', American Journal of Political Science, 32 (1988), 737-57; Larry M. Bartels, 'Issue Voting Under Uncertainty: An Empirical Test', American Journal of Political Science, 30 (1996), 709-28.
3. Paul M. Sniderman, Richard A. Brody and Philip E. Tetlock, Reasoning and Choice: Explorations in Political Psychology (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1991), p. 10. According to Delli Carpini and Keeter, most recent studies have shown that 'realistic theories of voting must allow for the possibility that citizens differ in the criteria they employ in voting' (Michael X. Delli Carpini and Scott Keeter, What Americans Know About Politics and Why it Matters (New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 1996), p. 358). On this notion, see also: James A. Stimson, 'Belief Systems: Constraint, Complexity and the 1972 Election', American Journal of Political Science, 19 (1975), 393-417; Kathleen Knight, 'Ideology in the 1980 Election: Ideological Sophistication Does Matter', Journal of Politics, 47 (1985), 828-53; Douglas Rivers, 'Heterogeneity in Models of Political Choice', American Journal of Political Science, 32 (1988), 737-57; Larry M. Bartels, 'Issue Voting Under Uncertainty: An Empirical Test', American Journal of Political Science, 30 (1996), 709-28.
4. Paul M. Sniderman, Richard A. Brody and Philip E. Tetlock, Reasoning and Choice: Explorations in Political Psychology (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1991), p. 10. According to Delli Carpini and Keeter, most recent studies have shown that 'realistic theories of voting must allow for the possibility that citizens differ in the criteria they employ in voting' (Michael X. Delli Carpini and Scott Keeter, What Americans Know About Politics and Why it Matters (New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 1996), p. 358). On this notion, see also: James A. Stimson, 'Belief Systems: Constraint, Complexity and the 1972 Election', American Journal of Political Science, 19 (1975), 393-417; Kathleen Knight, 'Ideology in the 1980 Election: Ideological Sophistication Does Matter', Journal of Politics, 47 (1985), 828-53; Douglas Rivers, 'Heterogeneity in Models of Political Choice', American Journal of Political Science, 32 (1988), 737-57; Larry M. Bartels, 'Issue Voting Under Uncertainty: An Empirical Test', American Journal of Political Science, 30 (1996), 709-28.
5. Paul M. Sniderman, Richard A. Brody and Philip E. Tetlock, Reasoning and Choice: Explorations in Political Psychology (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1991), p. 10. According to Delli Carpini and Keeter, most recent studies have shown that 'realistic theories of voting must allow for the possibility that citizens differ in the criteria they employ in voting' (Michael X. Delli Carpini and Scott Keeter, What Americans Know About Politics and Why it Matters (New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 1996), p. 358). On this notion, see also: James A. Stimson, 'Belief Systems: Constraint, Complexity and the 1972 Election', American Journal of Political Science, 19 (1975), 393-417; Kathleen Knight, 'Ideology in the 1980 Election: Ideological Sophistication Does Matter', Journal of Politics, 47 (1985), 828-53; Douglas Rivers, 'Heterogeneity in Models of Political Choice', American Journal of Political Science, 32 (1988), 737-57; Larry M. Bartels, 'Issue Voting Under Uncertainty: An Empirical Test', American Journal of Political Science, 30 (1996), 709-28.
6. Paul M. Sniderman, Richard A. Brody and Philip E. Tetlock, Reasoning and Choice: Explorations in Political Psychology (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1991), p. 10. According to Delli Carpini and Keeter, most recent studies have shown that 'realistic theories of voting must allow for the possibility that citizens differ in the criteria they employ in voting' (Michael X. Delli Carpini and Scott Keeter, What Americans Know About Politics and Why it Matters (New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 1996), p. 358). On this notion, see also: James A. Stimson, 'Belief Systems: Constraint, Complexity and the 1972 Election', American Journal of Political Science, 19 (1975), 393-417; Kathleen Knight, 'Ideology in the 1980 Election: Ideological Sophistication Does Matter', Journal of Politics, 47 (1985), 828-53; Douglas Rivers, 'Heterogeneity in Models of Political Choice', American Journal of Political Science, 32 (1988), 737-57; Larry M. Bartels, 'Issue Voting Under Uncertainty: An Empirical Test', American Journal of Political Science, 30 (1996), 709-28.
7. Paul M. Sniderman, Richard A. Brody and Philip E. Tetlock, Reasoning and Choice: Explorations in Political Psychology (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1991), p. 10. According to Delli Carpini and Keeter, most recent studies have shown that 'realistic theories of voting must allow for the possibility that citizens differ in the criteria they employ in voting' (Michael X. Delli Carpini and Scott Keeter, What Americans Know About Politics and Why it Matters (New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 1996), p. 358). On this notion, see also: James A. Stimson, 'Belief Systems: Constraint, Complexity and the 1972 Election', American Journal of Political Science, 19 (1975), 393-417; Kathleen Knight, 'Ideology in the 1980 Election: Ideological Sophistication Does Matter', Journal of Politics, 47 (1985), 828-53; Douglas Rivers, 'Heterogeneity in Models of Political Choice', American Journal of Political Science, 32 (1988), 737-57; Larry M. Bartels, 'Issue Voting Under Uncertainty: An Empirical Test', American Journal of Political Science, 30 (1996), 709-28.
8. André Blais and Richard Nadeau, 'La clientèle du OUI', in Jean Crête, ed., Comportement électoral au Québec (Chicoutimi: Gaëtan Morin éditeur, 1984), pp. 321-34; Maurice Pinard and Richard Hamilton, 'Motivational Dimensions in the Quebec Independence Movement: A Test ot a New Model', Research in Social Movements, Conflicts and Change, 9 (1986), 225-80; Maurice Pinard, Robert Bernier and Vincent Lemieux, Un Combat inachevé (Sainte-Foy: Presses de l'Université du Québec, 1997).
9. André Blais and Richard Nadeau, 'La clientèle du OUI', in Jean Crête, ed., Comportement électoral au Québec (Chicoutimi: Gaëtan Morin éditeur, 1984), pp. 321-34; Maurice Pinard and Richard Hamilton, 'Motivational Dimensions in the Quebec Independence Movement: A Test ot a New Model', Research in Social Movements, Conflicts and Change, 9 (1986), 225-80; Maurice Pinard, Robert Bernier and Vincent Lemieux, Un Combat inachevé (Sainte-Foy: Presses de l'Université du Québec, 1997).
10. André Blais and Richard Nadeau, 'La clientèle du OUI', in Jean Crête, ed., Comportement électoral au Québec (Chicoutimi: Gaëtan Morin éditeur, 1984), pp. 321-34; Maurice Pinard and Richard Hamilton, 'Motivational Dimensions in the Quebec Independence Movement: A Test ot a New Model', Research in Social Movements, Conflicts and Change, 9 (1986), 225-80; Maurice Pinard, Robert Bernier and Vincent Lemieux, Un Combat inachevé (Sainte-Foy: Presses de l'Université du Québec, 1997).
11. Richard Nadeau, 'Le virage souverainiste des Québécois, 1980-1990', Recherches sociographiques, 33 (1992), 9-28; André Biais and Richard Nadeau, 'To Be or Not To Be a Sovereignist? Quebeckers' Perennial Dilemma', Canadian Public Policy, 18 (1992), 89-103.
12. Richard Nadeau, 'Le virage souverainiste des Québécois, 1980-1990', Recherches sociographiques, 33 (1992), 9-28; André Biais and Richard Nadeau, 'To Be or Not To Be a Sovereignist? Quebeckers' Perennial Dilemma', Canadian Public Policy, 18 (1992), 89-103.
13. Maurice Pinard, 'The Quebec Independence Movement: A Dramatic Reemergence', Working Papers in Social Behaviour (unpublished, McGill University, Montreal, 1992).
14. On the relationship between national identity and the choice on sovereignty, see Blais and Nadeau 'To Be or Not To Be a Sovereignist', pp. 95-6. Wattenberg notes that party identification serves 'as the primary source of orientation for an individual's political attitudes, just as religious denomination acts as an orientation on religious matters. Once one becomes psychologically attached to a party one tends to see political matters as other party members do' (Martin P. Wattenberg, The Decline of American Political Porties (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1990), p. 12). For a statement on how instrumental considerations add to identity-based factors, see Hudson Meadwell, 'The Politics of Nationalism in Quebec', World Politics, 45 (1993), 203-41. Other authors have noted that leaders' popularity independently affects the choice on sovereignty: Harold D. Clarke and Allan Komberg, 'Choosing Canada? The 1995 Quebec Sovereignty Referendum', PS: Political Science and Politics, 29 (1996), 676-82. We cannot account for this effect here, but we used two datasets collected during the 1993 federal and 1994 provincial elections to test the hypothesis that leaders' evaluation might alter the effects of cost-benefit variables. We found that including leadership variables does not alter the effects of cost-benefit variables. Tests based on data collected during the 1993 federal election campaign also show that including party identification as a control variable does not alter the effect of cost-benefit variables.
15. On the relationship between national identity and the choice on sovereignty, see Blais and Nadeau 'To Be or Not To Be a Sovereignist', pp. 95-6. Wattenberg notes that party identification serves 'as the primary source of orientation for an individual's political attitudes, just as religious denomination acts as an orientation on religious matters. Once one becomes psychologically attached to a party one tends to see political matters as other party members do' (Martin P. Wattenberg, The Decline of American Political Porties (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1990), p. 12). For a statement on how instrumental considerations add to identity-based factors, see Hudson Meadwell, 'The Politics of Nationalism in Quebec', World Politics, 45 (1993), 203-41. Other authors have noted that leaders' popularity independently affects the choice on sovereignty: Harold D. Clarke and Allan Komberg, 'Choosing Canada? The 1995 Quebec Sovereignty Referendum', PS: Political Science and Politics, 29 (1996), 676-82. We cannot account for this effect here, but we used two datasets collected during the 1993 federal and 1994 provincial elections to test the hypothesis that leaders' evaluation might alter the effects of cost-benefit variables. We found that including leadership variables does not alter the effects of cost-benefit variables. Tests based on data collected during the 1993 federal election campaign also show that including party identification as a control variable does not alter the effect of cost-benefit variables.
16. On the relationship between national identity and the choice on sovereignty, see Blais and Nadeau 'To Be or Not To Be a Sovereignist', pp. 95-6. Wattenberg notes that party identification serves 'as the primary source of orientation for an individual's political attitudes, just as religious denomination acts as an orientation on religious matters. Once one becomes psychologically attached to a party one tends to see political matters as other party members do' (Martin P. Wattenberg, The Decline of American Political Porties (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1990), p. 12). For a statement on how instrumental considerations add to identity-based factors, see Hudson Meadwell, 'The Politics of Nationalism in Quebec', World Politics, 45 (1993), 203-41. Other authors have noted that leaders' popularity independently affects the choice on sovereignty: Harold D. Clarke and Allan Komberg, 'Choosing Canada? The 1995 Quebec Sovereignty Referendum', PS: Political Science and Politics, 29 (1996), 676-82. We cannot account for this effect here, but we used two datasets collected during the 1993 federal and 1994 provincial elections to test the hypothesis that leaders' evaluation might alter the effects of cost-benefit variables. We found that including leadership variables does not alter the effects of cost-benefit variables. Tests based on data collected during the 1993 federal election campaign also show that including party identification as a control variable does not alter the effect of cost-benefit variables.
17. On the relationship between national identity and the choice on sovereignty, see Blais and Nadeau 'To Be or Not To Be a Sovereignist', pp. 95-6. Wattenberg notes that party identification serves 'as the primary source of orientation for an individual's political attitudes, just as religious denomination acts as an orientation on religious matters. Once one becomes psychologically attached to a party one tends to see political matters as other party members do' (Martin P. Wattenberg, The Decline of American Political Porties (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1990), p. 12). For a statement on how instrumental considerations add to identity-based factors, see Hudson Meadwell, 'The Politics of Nationalism in Quebec', World Politics, 45 (1993), 203-41. Other authors have noted that leaders' popularity independently affects the choice on sovereignty: Harold D. Clarke and Allan Komberg, 'Choosing Canada? The 1995 Quebec Sovereignty Referendum', PS: Political Science and Politics, 29 (1996), 676-82. We cannot account for this effect here, but we used two datasets collected during the 1993 federal and 1994 provincial elections to test the hypothesis that leaders' evaluation might alter the effects of cost-benefit variables. We found that including leadership variables does not alter the effects of cost-benefit variables. Tests based on data collected during the 1993 federal election campaign also show that including party identification as a control variable does not alter the effect of cost-benefit variables.
18. André Blais, Pierre Martin and Richard Nadeau, 'Attentes économiques et linguistiques et appui à la souveraineté du Québec: Une analyse prospective et comparative', Canadian Journal of Political Science, 28 (1995), 637-57; Richard Nadeau and Christopher Fleury, 'Gains linguistiques anticipés et appui à la souveraineté du Québec', Canadian Journal of Political Science, 28 (1995), 35-50; Pierre Martin, 'Générations politiques, rationalité économique et appui à la souveraineté au Québec', Canadian Journal of Political Science, 27 (1994), 345-59; Blais and Nadeau, 'To Be or Not To Be a Sovereignist'; Pinard, 'The Quebec Independence Movement'.
19. André Blais, Pierre Martin and Richard Nadeau, 'Attentes économiques et linguistiques et appui à la souveraineté du Québec: Une analyse prospective et comparative', Canadian Journal of Political Science, 28 (1995), 637-57; Richard Nadeau and Christopher Fleury, 'Gains linguistiques anticipés et appui à la souveraineté du Québec', Canadian Journal of Political Science, 28 (1995), 35-50; Pierre Martin, 'Générations politiques, rationalité économique et appui à la souveraineté au Québec', Canadian Journal of Political Science, 27 (1994), 345-59; Blais and Nadeau, 'To Be or Not To Be a Sovereignist'; Pinard, 'The Quebec Independence Movement'.
20. André Blais, Pierre Martin and Richard Nadeau, 'Attentes économiques et linguistiques et appui à la souveraineté du Québec: Une analyse prospective et comparative', Canadian Journal of Political Science, 28 (1995), 637-57; Richard Nadeau and Christopher Fleury, 'Gains linguistiques anticipés et appui à la souveraineté du Québec', Canadian Journal of Political Science, 28 (1995), 35-50; Pierre Martin, 'Générations politiques, rationalité économique et appui à la souveraineté au Québec', Canadian Journal of Political Science, 27 (1994), 345-59; Blais and Nadeau, 'To Be or Not To Be a Sovereignist'; Pinard, 'The Quebec Independence Movement'.
21. André Blais, Pierre Martin and Richard Nadeau, 'Attentes économiques et linguistiques et appui à la souveraineté du Québec: Une analyse prospective et comparative', Canadian Journal of Political Science, 28 (1995), 637-57; Richard Nadeau and Christopher Fleury, 'Gains linguistiques anticipés et appui à la souveraineté du Québec', Canadian Journal of Political Science, 28 (1995), 35-50; Pierre Martin, 'Générations politiques, rationalité économique et appui à la souveraineté au Québec', Canadian Journal of Political Science, 27 (1994), 345-59; Blais and Nadeau, 'To Be or Not To Be a Sovereignist'; Pinard, 'The Quebec Independence Movement'.
22. André Blais, Pierre Martin and Richard Nadeau, 'Attentes économiques et linguistiques et appui à la souveraineté du Québec: Une analyse prospective et comparative', Canadian Journal of Political Science, 28 (1995), 637-57; Richard Nadeau and Christopher Fleury, 'Gains linguistiques anticipés et appui à la souveraineté du Québec', Canadian Journal of Political Science, 28 (1995), 35-50; Pierre Martin, 'Générations politiques, rationalité économique et appui à la souveraineté au Québec', Canadian Journal of Political Science, 27 (1994), 345-59; Blais and Nadeau, 'To Be or Not To Be a Sovereignist'; Pinard, 'The Quebec Independence Movement'.
23. We do not assume, for instance, that the voter's perception of the probability that his or her vote might be decisive is a determinant factor in this decision. For empirical studies showing the relatively unimportant role of the 'P term' in explaining voting choices, see notably Carroll B. Foster, 'The Performance of Rational Voter Models in Recent Presidential Elections', American Political Science Review, 78 (1984), 678-90; André Biais and Robert A. Young, 'Why Do People Vote? An Experiment in Rationality', Public Choice (1999), 39-55.
24. We do not assume, for instance, that the voter's perception of the probability that his or her vote might be decisive is a determinant factor in this decision. For empirical studies showing the relatively unimportant role of the 'P term' in explaining voting choices, see notably Carroll B. Foster, 'The Performance of Rational Voter Models in Recent Presidential Elections', American Political Science Review, 78 (1984), 678-90; André Biais and Robert A. Young, 'Why Do People Vote? An Experiment in Rationality', Public Choice (1999), 39-55.
25. For a presentation of the concept of regret avoidance and a review of the relevant literature, see William Samuelson and Richard Zeckhauser, 'Status Quo Bias in Decision Making', Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 1 (1988), 7-59, p. 38.
26. Ronald Inglehart, 'The Fear of Living Dangerously: Public Attitudes Toward Nuclear Power', Public Opinion, 6 (1984), 41-4.
27. Meadwell, 'The Politics of Nationalism in Quebec', p. 216.
28. This prediction is consistent with MacCrimmon, Wehrung and Stanbury's contention that 'risk averters tend to look at worst-case scenarios' (see Kenneth R. MacCrimmon, Donald A. Wehrung, and W. T. Stanbury, Taking Risks: The Management of Uncertainty (New York: The Free Press, 1986), pp. 34-5. We define risk itself as the exposure to an eventuality of loss. The classic statement in the psychological literature is found in Paul Slovic, 'Assessment of Risk-Taking Behavior', Psychological Bulletin, 61 (1964), 220-33, p. 220.
29. This prediction is consistent with MacCrimmon, Wehrung and Stanbury's contention that 'risk averters tend to look at worst-case scenarios' (see Kenneth R. MacCrimmon, Donald A. Wehrung, and W. T. Stanbury, Taking Risks: The Management of Uncertainty (New York: The Free Press, 1986), pp. 34-5. We define risk itself as the exposure to an eventuality of loss. The classic statement in the psychological literature is found in Paul Slovic, 'Assessment of Risk-Taking Behavior', Psychological Bulletin, 61 (1964), 220-33, p. 220.
30. In general, the psychological literature has mostly focused on the intrapersonal sources of differences in risk-taking attitudes; see Clyde H. Coombs, Robyn M. Dawes and Amos Tversky, Mathematical Psychology: An Elementary Introduction (Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice-Hall, 1970). Nevertheless, psychologists have observed 'some generality of willingness to take risks over both the material and interpersonal areas' (Eugene Weinstein and Jerald Martin, 'Generality of Willingness to Take Risks', Psychological Reports, 24 (1969), 499-501, p. 499; see also Eric S. Knowles, Henry S. G. Cutter, David H. Walsh and Nancy A. Casey 'Risk-Taking as a Personality Trait', Social Behavior and Personality, 1 (1973), 123-36). Others note that risk-taking or 'venturesomeness' can be considered a 'primary factor of personality', S. B. G. Eynsenck and H. J. Eynsenck, 'Impulsiveness and Venturesomeness: Their Position in a Dimensional System of Personality Description', Psychological Reports, 43 (1978), 1247-55, p. 1252); for the perspective of psychological economics, see Olaf Dahlbäck, 'Personality and Risk-Taking', Personality and Individual Differences, 11 (1990), 1235-42, p. 1239.
31. In general, the psychological literature has mostly focused on the intrapersonal sources of differences in risk-taking attitudes; see Clyde H. Coombs, Robyn M. Dawes and Amos Tversky, Mathematical Psychology: An Elementary Introduction (Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice-Hall, 1970). Nevertheless, psychologists have observed 'some generality of willingness to take risks over both the material and interpersonal areas' (Eugene Weinstein and Jerald Martin, 'Generality of Willingness to Take Risks', Psychological Reports, 24 (1969), 499-501, p. 499; see also Eric S. Knowles, Henry S. G. Cutter, David H. Walsh and Nancy A. Casey 'Risk-Taking as a Personality Trait', Social Behavior and Personality, 1 (1973), 123-36). Others note that risk-taking or 'venturesomeness' can be considered a 'primary factor of personality', S. B. G. Eynsenck and H. J. Eynsenck, 'Impulsiveness and Venturesomeness: Their Position in a Dimensional System of Personality Description', Psychological Reports, 43 (1978), 1247-55, p. 1252); for the perspective of psychological economics, see Olaf Dahlbäck, 'Personality and Risk-Taking', Personality and Individual Differences, 11 (1990), 1235-42, p. 1239.
32. In general, the psychological literature has mostly focused on the intrapersonal sources of differences in risk-taking attitudes; see Clyde H. Coombs, Robyn M. Dawes and Amos Tversky, Mathematical Psychology: An Elementary Introduction (Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice-Hall, 1970). Nevertheless, psychologists have observed 'some generality of willingness to take risks over both the material and interpersonal areas' (Eugene Weinstein and Jerald Martin, 'Generality of Willingness to Take Risks', Psychological Reports, 24 (1969), 499-501, p. 499; see also Eric S. Knowles, Henry S. G. Cutter, David H. Walsh and Nancy A. Casey 'Risk-Taking as a Personality Trait', Social Behavior and Personality, 1 (1973), 123-36). Others note that risk-taking or 'venturesomeness' can be considered a 'primary factor of personality', S. B. G. Eynsenck and H. J. Eynsenck, 'Impulsiveness and Venturesomeness: Their Position in a Dimensional System of Personality Description', Psychological Reports, 43 (1978), 1247-55, p. 1252); for the perspective of psychological economics, see Olaf Dahlbäck, 'Personality and Risk-Taking', Personality and Individual Differences, 11 (1990), 1235-42, p. 1239.
33. In general, the psychological literature has mostly focused on the intrapersonal sources of differences in risk-taking attitudes; see Clyde H. Coombs, Robyn M. Dawes and Amos Tversky, Mathematical Psychology: An Elementary Introduction (Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice-Hall, 1970). Nevertheless, psychologists have observed 'some generality of willingness to take risks over both the material and interpersonal areas' (Eugene Weinstein and Jerald Martin, 'Generality of Willingness to Take Risks', Psychological Reports, 24 (1969), 499-501, p. 499; see also Eric S. Knowles, Henry S. G. Cutter, David H. Walsh and Nancy A. Casey 'Risk-Taking as a Personality Trait', Social Behavior and Personality, 1 (1973), 123-36). Others note that risk-taking or 'venturesomeness' can be considered a 'primary factor of personality', S. B. G. Eynsenck and H. J. Eynsenck, 'Impulsiveness and Venturesomeness: Their Position in a Dimensional System of Personality Description', Psychological Reports, 43 (1978), 1247-55, p. 1252); for the perspective of psychological economics, see Olaf Dahlbäck, 'Personality and Risk-Taking', Personality and Individual Differences, 11 (1990), 1235-42, p. 1239.
34. In general, the psychological literature has mostly focused on the intrapersonal sources of differences in risk-taking attitudes; see Clyde H. Coombs, Robyn M. Dawes and Amos Tversky, Mathematical Psychology: An Elementary Introduction (Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice-Hall, 1970). Nevertheless, psychologists have observed 'some generality of willingness to take risks over both the material and interpersonal areas' (Eugene Weinstein and Jerald Martin, 'Generality of Willingness to Take Risks', Psychological Reports, 24 (1969), 499-501, p. 499; see also Eric S. Knowles, Henry S. G. Cutter, David H. Walsh and Nancy A. Casey 'Risk-Taking as a Personality Trait', Social Behavior and Personality, 1 (1973), 123-36). Others note that risk-taking or 'venturesomeness' can be considered a 'primary factor of personality', S. B. G. Eynsenck and H. J. Eynsenck, 'Impulsiveness and Venturesomeness: Their Position in a Dimensional System of Personality Description', Psychological Reports, 43 (1978), 1247-55, p. 1252); for the perspective of psychological economics, see Olaf Dahlbäck, 'Personality and Risk-Taking', Personality and Individual Differences, 11 (1990), 1235-42, p. 1239.
35. Dahlbäck, 'Personality and Risk-Taking'; Olof Dahlbäck, 'Saving and Risk Taking', Journal of Economic Psychology, 12 (1991), 479-500.
36. Dahlbäck, 'Personality and Risk-Taking'; Olof Dahlbäck, 'Saving and Risk Taking', Journal of Economic Psychology, 12 (1991), 479-500.
37. Among the 1,008 persons interviewed, 860 provided a valid (For or Against) answer to the question asked about the upcoming sovereignty vote. Our subsample of 756 respondents with measures on all indicators is roughly similar to the sample of the population as a whole.
38. This preamble and all the questions used in this study are shown in the Appendix.
39. Note that we do not equate risk acceptance with risk seeking. In fact, risk seeking tends to be mostly recreational and individuals generally do not seek risk for its own sake. This is particularly true of voters. For example, Benjamin Page argued that voters tend not to be risk seekers with respect to public policy alternatives: 'The Theory of Political Ambiguity', American Political Science Review, 70 (1976), 742-52, p. 745. Shanto Iyengar also notes that 'voters are generally found to be risk averse' (Iyengar, 'Information and Electoral Attitudes: A Case of Judgement Under Uncertainty', in Shanto Iyengar and William J. McGuire, eds, Explorations in Political Psychology (Durham, NC: Duke University Press, 1993), p. 322. Iyengar cites a variety of authors who found 'that voters are consistently risk averse in primary and general elections' (p. 329).
40. Note that we do not equate risk acceptance with risk seeking. In fact, risk seeking tends to be mostly recreational and individuals generally do not seek risk for its own sake. This is particularly true of voters. For example, Benjamin Page argued that voters tend not to be risk seekers with respect to public policy alternatives: 'The Theory of Political Ambiguity', American Political Science Review, 70 (1976), 742-52, p. 745. Shanto Iyengar also notes that 'voters are generally found to be risk averse' (Iyengar, 'Information and Electoral Attitudes: A Case of Judgement Under Uncertainty', in Shanto Iyengar and William J. McGuire, eds, Explorations in Political Psychology (Durham, NC: Duke University Press, 1993), p. 322. Iyengar cites a variety of authors who found 'that voters are consistently risk averse in primary and general elections' (p. 329).
41. Responses were distributed as follows: 10 per cent said they found taking risks 'very easy'; 45 per cent found it 'somewhat easy'; and 35 per cent and 10 per cent found it, respectively, somewhat or very difficult. We use a dichotomised version of this variable in our analyses to simplify the presentation of results, and because the distinction between 'easy' and 'difficult' far outweighs that between 'very' and 'somewhat'. Using a multi-category variable produces virtually identical results and does not affect our conclusions.
42. Dahlbäck, 'Personality and Risk-Taking', p. 1240; 'Saving and Risk Taking', p. 488.
43. Dahlbäck, 'Personality and Risk-Taking', p. 1240; 'Saving and Risk Taking', p. 488.
44. Eynsenck and Eynsenck, 'Impulsiveness and Venturesomeness'.
45. MacCrimmon, Wehrung and Stanbury, Taking Risks, p. 305.
46. Our measure of attitude towards risk-taking is correlated with measures of age (six categories; r = 0.20), gender (woman = 1; r = 0.18), education (seven categories; r = -0.15) and income (five categories; r = -0.14) (all are significant at the 0.001 level). We find, however, no correlation with language (r = -0.02). Except for income, these variables remain significant in a multiple regression: Risk = 0.42 (14.93) + 0.15*Age (4.62) + 0.09*Woman (4.55) - 0.11*Scol ( - 2.24) - 0.05*Income ( - 1.44) + 0.004*Anglo (0.12). We have tested for possible interactions between these socio-demographic variables and found none. In a further step, we tested for more complex interactions between language, the risk variable, and the various outcome variables. None was found significant.
47. For example, see MacCrimmon, Wehrung and Stanbury, Taking Risks, pp. 49-50; Dahlbäck, 'Saving and Risk Taking', p. 491.
48. For example, see MacCrimmon, Wehrung and Stanbury, Taking Risks, pp. 49-50; Dahlbäck, 'Saving and Risk Taking', p. 491.
49. Anglophones (coded 1) are people who use English at home, or use neither English nor French at home, and chose to answer the survey in English. Francophones (coded 0) are those who use French at home, or a third language, and chose to answer in French.
50. Blais and Nadeau, 'La clientèle du OUI'; 'To Be or Not To Be a Sovereignist'; Martin, 'Générations politiques'; Pinard, Bernier and Lemieux, Un Combat inachevé.
51. Blais and Nadeau, 'La clientèle du OUI'; 'To Be or Not To Be a Sovereignist'; Martin, 'Générations politiques'; Pinard, Bernier and Lemieux, Un Combat inachevé.
52. Blais and Nadeau, 'La clientèle du OUI'; 'To Be or Not To Be a Sovereignist'; Martin, 'Générations politiques'; Pinard, Bernier and Lemieux, Un Combat inachevé.
53. Blais and Nadeau, 'La clientèle du OUI'; 'To Be or Not To Be a Sovereignist'; Martin, 'Générations politiques'; Pinard, Bernier and Lemieux, Un Combat inachevé.
54. Because the logical relationship between this variable and the vote is inverse among Anglophones, the coding of the linguistic worst-outcome variable was reversed for this group in the multivariate equation.
55. Excluding socio-demographic variables or identification does not affect any of our conclusions We also tested indirectly (using education as a proxy variable) whether levels of political sophistication or information affected our conclusions. Our results were essentially the same among highly educated respondents as in the less-educated group.
56. Blais, Martin and Nadeau, 'Attentes économiques et linguistiques'.
57. Sniderman, Brody and Tetlock, Reasoning and Choice; Bartels, 'Issue Voting Under Uncertainty'; Delli Carpini and Keeter, What Americans Know About Politics and Why It Matters.
58. Sniderman, Brody and Tetlock, Reasoning and Choice; Bartels, 'Issue Voting Under Uncertainty'; Delli Carpini and Keeter, What Americans Know About Politics and Why It Matters.
59. Sniderman, Brody and Tetlock, Reasoning and Choice; Bartels, 'Issue Voting Under Uncertainty'; Delli Carpini and Keeter, What Americans Know About Politics and Why It Matters.
60. In six elections, Bartels finds that information has an effect, on average, of about 3 percentage points. He qualifies effects ranging from 2.7 to 5.6 points as 'large and significant' (Bartels, 'Issue Voting Under Uncertainty', p. 218).
61. Gregory Andrade Diamond and Michael D. Cobb also stress the importance of extreme scenarios as persuasive arguments when they observe that 'In terms of political persuasion ... the battle is not to convince citizens that one's policy is right, but simply that it is not unreasonable: that a favored candidate's election (or incumbent's policy proposal) does not portend catastrophe' (see Diamond and Cobb, 'The Candidate as Catastrophe: Latitude Theory and the Problems of Political Persuasion', in Diana C. Mutz, Paul M. Sniderman and Richard A. Brody, eds, Political Persuasion and Attitude Change (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1996), pp. 225-47, at p. 242.
62. Inglehart, 'The Fear of Living Dangerously'; Stanley Rothman and S. Robert Lichter, 'Elite Ideology and Risk Perception in Nuclear Energy Policy', American Political Science Review, 81 (1987), 383-404.
63. Inglehart, 'The Fear of Living Dangerously'; Stanley Rothman and S. Robert Lichter, 'Elite Ideology and Risk Perception in Nuclear Energy Policy', American Political Science Review, 81 (1987), 383-404.
64. Richard Johnston, André Blais, Henry E. Brady and Jean Crête, Letting the People Decide: Dynamics of a Canadian Election (Montreal and Kingston: McGill-Queen's University Press, 1992).
65. William H. Riker, The Art of Political Manipulation (New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 1986).
66. The growing interest in political persuasion is reflected in the contributions assembled by Mutz, Sniderman and Brody, eds, Political Persuasion and Attitude Change. See also Michael D. Cobb and James H. Kuklinski, 'Changing Minds: Political Arguments and Political Persuasion', American Journal of Political Science, 41 (1997), 88-121.
67. The growing interest in political persuasion is reflected in the contributions assembled by Mutz, Sniderman and Brody, eds, Political Persuasion and Attitude Change. See also Michael D. Cobb and James H. Kuklinski, 'Changing Minds: Political Arguments and Political Persuasion', American Journal of Political Science, 41 (1997), 88-121.