Peace over the Taiwan strait?

Security Dialogue

Volumn 33, Issue 1, 2002, Pages 93-106

  Lijun, Sheng ^a  

^a National University of Singapore   (Singapore)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 0040669950     PISSN: 09670106     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1177/0967010602033001007     Document Type: Article

References (50)

1. See, for example, Kurt Campbell & Derek Mitchell, 'Crisis in the Taiwan Strait?', Foreign Affairs, vol. 80, no. 4, July/August 2001, pp. 14-25.
2. Ching Cheong, 'It's "One China" Principle or Nothing', Straits Times (Singapore), 29 March 2000.
3. Ching Cheong, 'Why China Is Going Easy on Taiwan for Now', Straits Times, 18 August 2000.
4. See Qian's talk at Beijing University on 26 May 2000, reported by CTN TV (Taipei), 26 May 2000, and Chung Kuo Shih Pao [China Times] (Taipei), 27 May 2000.
5. From my interviews with Chinese strategists in 2000.
6. 'Black gold' politics refers to the heavy influence upon politics exerted by the 'black' (mafia/violence) and the 'gold' (money/business people).
7. For example, during the confrontation between the DPP government and the opposition on the issue of a fourth nuclear plant in late 2000, some DPP leaders mobilized people from southern Taiwan to demonstrate in Taipei in order to exert pressure on the KMT-dominated legislature.
8. Both before and after Chen's election in March 2000, to win more votes from the native Taiwanese who constitute the majority of Taiwan's population, many DPP leaders chose to attack the KMT as an 'alien power', that is, mainlanders from China, not representing the interests of the native Taiwanese. Former president Lee Teng-hui, after being expelled by the KMT, also publicly asked native Taiwanese not to vote for an 'alien power' like the KMT. See 'Ex-President Steps Up Anti-KMT Tirade', China Post, 13 October 2001.
9. Goh Sui Noi, 'Taiwan's DPP Marks Anniversary Quietly', Straits Times, 28 September 2000.
10. Ibid.
11. Ibid.
12. 'Taiwan's Economy Faces Four Uncertainties', Commercial Times (Taipei), 19 November 2001.
13. Chen made the appeal when he was in New York in June 2001; see Kao Koong-lian & Lee Shin-kuan, 'Cross-Strait Policy Not the Only Key', Taipei Times, 25 August 2001.
14. Beijing made such an interpretation and decision as early as 1996, when Taiwan for the first time announced that it would set itself up as the 'Asia-Pacific operational centre'. China has so far not changed its position on this. See 'Cross-Strait Relations Official: New Guiding Principle Towards Taiwan Proved Correct', Ming Pao Daily (Hong Kong), 20 January 1996, p. A2, quoted in Reuters, 7 February 1996.
15. Ming Pao Daily, quoted in 'China in Bid To Aid HK with Exports', Straits Times, 11 September 2001.
16. Ming Pao Daily, quoted in 'China in Bid To Aid HK with Exports', Straits Times, 11 September 2001.
17. Lianhe Zaobao [The United Morning News] (Singapore), 30 September 2001, p. 23.
18. Taiwan's major opposition parties, such as the KMT, the People First Party and the New Party, all accept the 1992 consensus and the 'One China' notion that, in their interpretation, stands for the Republic of China (ROC).
19. For this Chinese expectation, see Liu Guosheng, 'Lun "Taidu Yundong" de Jieduanxing Jiqi Zhuanhua' [On Difference Phases of the "Taiwan Independence Movement" and Its Transformation], in Taiwan Yanjiu Jikan [Taiwan Research Quarterly] (China), no. 4, 2000, pp. 1-7.
20. Todd Crowell, 'Now, a Beijing Peace Offensive', Asiaweek, 28 July 2000.
21. Nadia Tsao, 'Delegation Pressing for AEGIS Sale', Taipei Times, 18 December 2000.
22. The development of Dongfeng-31 began in the 1970s, and the missile had its first successful trial in May 1995.
23. 'Spacecraft Launch "a Victory for PLA"', South China Morning Post (Hong Kong), 23 November 1999; see also China Business Times, 22 November 1999.
24. 'Spacecraft Launch "a Victory for PLA"', South China Morning Post (Hong Kong), 23 November 1999; see also China Business Times, 22 November 1999.
25. MIRV stands for multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles. MRV stands for multiple re-entry vehicles. Bates Gill of the US Brookings Institution noted that the PLA 'apparently has the ability to place multiple warheads on its missiles'. See Bates Gill & James Mulvenon, 'China's Nuclear Agenda', New York Times, 7 September 2001.
26. Ibid.; see also Bill Gertz, 'China Ready to Deploy its First Mobile ICBMs', Washington Times, 6 September 2001.
27. Ibid.; see also Bill Gertz, 'China Ready to Deploy its First Mobile ICBMs', Washington Times, 6 September 2001.
28. 'Chinese Subs Score 3 Missile Hits in War Games', Straits Times, 29 August 2001.
29. Lianhe Zaobao (Singapore), 7 January 2001, p. 25; see also Washington Times, quoted in Greg Torode, 'New Nuclear Sub Can Target "Any US City"', South China Morning Post, 7 December 1999.
30. Lianhe Zaobao (Singapore), 7 January 2001, p. 25; see also Washington Times, quoted in Greg Torode, 'New Nuclear Sub Can Target "Any US City"', South China Morning Post, 7 December 1999.
31. Lianhe Zaobao (Singapore), 7 January 2001, p. 25; see also Washington Times, quoted in Greg Torode, 'New Nuclear Sub Can Target "Any US City"', South China Morning Post, 7 December 1999.
32. Jane's Defence Weekly and Sing Tao Jih Pao [Sing Tao Daily], quoted in 'Chinese Subs Score 3 Missile Hits In War Games', Straits Times, 29 August 2001.
33. Jane's Defence Weekly and Sing Tao Jih Pao [Sing Tao Daily], quoted in 'Chinese Subs Score 3 Missile Hits In War Games', Straits Times, 29 August 2001.
34. This is an assessment by US military intelligence; see Bill Gertz, 'Chinese "Civilian" Satellite a Spy Tool', Washington Times, 1 August 2001.
35. Ibid.; 'China's Satellites Watching', Straits Times, 21 August 2001.
36. Ibid.; 'China's Satellites Watching', Straits Times, 21 August 2001.
37. Sichuan Youth Daily (China), quoted in 'Spy Satellites Said To Track US Warships', AFP, 6 October 1999; see also Robert Burns, 'China Able To Attack Taiwan by 2005', Washington Post, 26 February 1999.
38. Sichuan Youth Daily (China), quoted in 'Spy Satellites Said To Track US Warships', AFP, 6 October 1999; see also Robert Burns, 'China Able To Attack Taiwan by 2005', Washington Post, 26 February 1999.
39. Sichuan Youth Daily (China), quoted in 'Spy Satellites Said To Track US Warships', AFP, 6 October 1999; see also Robert Burns, 'China Able To Attack Taiwan by 2005', Washington Post, 26 February 1999.
40. Lianhe Zaobao, 1 May 2001, p. 2. China claims to have developed 'laser weapons to disable the laser guidance systems of America's F-17s'; see Jasper Becker, 'PLA Newspaper Details Strategies to "Liberate" Island', South China Morning Post, 20 March 2000.
41. Lianhe Zaobao, 1 May 2001, p. 2. China claims to have developed 'laser weapons to disable the laser guidance systems of America's F-17s'; see Jasper Becker, 'PLA Newspaper Details Strategies to "Liberate" Island', South China Morning Post, 20 March 2000.
42. China successfully launched two such ASAT mini-satellites on 25 April 2001, see Lianhe Zaobao, 1 May 2001, p. 2; 6 January 2001, p. 33.
43. China successfully launched two such ASAT mini-satellites on 25 April 2001, see Lianhe Zaobao, 1 May 2001, p. 2; 6 January 2001, p. 33.
44. See Al Santoli, 'China's New War Fighting Skills: Emerging Threats to the U.S., India, Taiwan and the Asia/Pacific Region', a report to the US Congress and an American Foreign Policy Council investigation in Southeast Asia, 14-26 August 2000; available at http://taiwansecurity.org/IS/Santoli-082600.htm.
45. Current US anti-aircraft defence is cued by radar that detects and tracks incoming aircraft, but the radar is vulnerable because its signals can be jammed or missiles can be launched to ride back down the radar beam to destroy the transmitter. However, China's new Passive Coherent Location (PCL) system tracks the signals of civilian radio and television broadcasts and picks up aircraft by analysing the minute turbulence their flights cause in commercial wavelengths. Because the PCL does not transmit, its receivers cannot be detected and jammed or destroyed. Its strategic implication is significant because it can defeat current US airforce tactics against enemy defences. This has alarmed the US defence community in reference to the cost of defending Taiwan, as this technology would make US airpower suddenly vulnerable; see Newsweek, 6 December 1999,
46. quoted in 'Anti-Plane System Causes Concern in US', South China Morning Post, 30 November 1999.
47. See Science Times, published by the China Academy of Science, quoted in Christopher Bodeen, 'Taiwan Blames China for Instability', Associate Press Newsline, 20 August 1999.
48. See Science Times, published by the China Academy of Science, quoted in Christopher Bodeen, 'Taiwan Blames China for Instability', Associate Press Newsline, 20 August 1999.
49. Reported in Independence Post in 1998; quoted in Straits Times, 2 October 1998.
50. Reported in Independence Post in 1998; quoted in Straits Times, 2 October 1998.