After Deng, what? Reconsidering the prospects for a democratic transition in China

Problems of Post-Communism

Volumn 44, Issue 5, 1997, Pages 22-31

  Scobell, Andrew ^a  

^a NONE

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EID: 0040655537     PISSN: 10758216     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/10758216.1997.11655747     Document Type: Article

References (59)

1. Richard Baum, "China After Deng: Ten Scenarios in Search of Reality," China Quarterly 145 (March 1996): 152, 169-72, 174. Of the ten scenarios, two are democratic: One is classified as "less likely" and the other as "least likely." The "most likely" scenarios all entail only incremental (authoritarian) change.
2. Dankwart Rustow, "Transitions to Democracy: Toward a Dynamic Model," Comparative Politics 2 (1970); Juan J. Linz and Alfred Stepan, Problems of Democratic Transition and Consolidation: Southern Europe, South America, and Post-Communist Europe (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1996). Fora good overview of the democratization literature, see Doh Chull Shin, "On the Third Wave of Democratization: A Synthesis and Evaluation of Recent Theory and Research," World Politics 47, no. 1 (October 1994): 135-70. Transitions from communism can be usefully analyzed using concepts and theories derived from scholarship on transitions from non-communist authoritarian regimes. For a lucid articulation of this perspective, see Russell Bova, "Political Dynamics of the Post-Communist Transition: A Comparative Perspective," World Politics 44, no. 1 (October 1991): 113-38.
3. Dankwart Rustow, "Transitions to Democracy: Toward a Dynamic Model," Comparative Politics 2 (1970); Juan J. Linz and Alfred Stepan, Problems of Democratic Transition and Consolidation: Southern Europe, South America, and Post-Communist Europe (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1996). Fora good overview of the democratization literature, see Doh Chull Shin, "On the Third Wave of Democratization: A Synthesis and Evaluation of Recent Theory and Research," World Politics 47, no. 1 (October 1994): 135-70. Transitions from communism can be usefully analyzed using concepts and theories derived from scholarship on transitions from non-communist authoritarian regimes. For a lucid articulation of this perspective, see Russell Bova, "Political Dynamics of the Post-Communist Transition: A Comparative Perspective," World Politics 44, no. 1 (October 1991): 113-38.
4. Dankwart Rustow, "Transitions to Democracy: Toward a Dynamic Model," Comparative Politics 2 (1970); Juan J. Linz and Alfred Stepan, Problems of Democratic Transition and Consolidation: Southern Europe, South America, and Post-Communist Europe (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1996). Fora good overview of the democratization literature, see Doh Chull Shin, "On the Third Wave of Democratization: A Synthesis and Evaluation of Recent Theory and Research," World Politics 47, no. 1 (October 1994): 135-70. Transitions from communism can be usefully analyzed using concepts and theories derived from scholarship on transitions from non-communist authoritarian regimes. For a lucid articulation of this perspective, see Russell Bova, "Political Dynamics of the Post-Communist Transition: A Comparative Perspective," World Politics 44, no. 1 (October 1991): 113-38.
5. Dankwart Rustow, "Transitions to Democracy: Toward a Dynamic Model," Comparative Politics 2 (1970); Juan J. Linz and Alfred Stepan, Problems of Democratic Transition and Consolidation: Southern Europe, South America, and Post-Communist Europe (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1996). Fora good overview of the democratization literature, see Doh Chull Shin, "On the Third Wave of Democratization: A Synthesis and Evaluation of Recent Theory and Research," World Politics 47, no. 1 (October 1994): 135-70. Transitions from communism can be usefully analyzed using concepts and theories derived from scholarship on transitions from non-communist authoritarian regimes. For a lucid articulation of this perspective, see Russell Bova, "Political Dynamics of the Post-Communist Transition: A Comparative Perspective," World Politics 44, no. 1 (October 1991): 113-38.
6. Guillermo O'Donnell and Philippe Schmitter, "Tentative Conclusions About Uncertain Democracies," in Transitions from Authoritarian Rule, ed. O'Donnell et al. (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1986), part 4, pp. 1-78.
7. Ibid.
8. Merle Goldman, Sowing the Seeds of Democracy in China: Political Reform in the Deng Xiaoping Era (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1994).
9. Scott Mainwaring, "Transitions to Democracy and Democratic Consolidation: Theoretical and Comparative Issues," in Issues in Democratic Consolidation: The New South American Democracies in Comparative Perspective, ed. Scott Mainwaring, Guillermo O'Donnell, and Samuel J. Valenzuela (Notre Dame: University of Notre Dame Press, 1992), p. 303.
10. The entire speech appears in translation in "Quarterly Chronicle and Documentation," China Quarterly 139 (September 1994), see especially p. 896.
11. A similar assessment of Zhao's actions is made by Andrew Nathan. See his "Chinese Democracy in 1989: Change and Continuity," Problems of Communism 38, no. 5 (September-October 1989): 19.
12. Unless otherwise noted, Chinese views on the subject of democracy articulated in this article are based on conversations conducted with individuals from a broad cross-section of society held in a wide variety of locales in China during research trips to the PRC in 1984-85, 1987, 1991, 1995-96, and 1997.
13. Perry Link, Evening Chats in Beijing: Probing China's Predicament (New York: W.W. Norton, 1992), pp. 198-99.
14. See, for example, Josephine M.T. Khu, "Student Organization in the Movement," in Chinese Democracy and the Crisis of 1989: Chinese and American Reflections, ed. Roger V. Des Forges et al. (Albany: State University of New York Press, 1993), pp. 161-75.
15. Martin K. Whyte, "Urban China: A Civil Society in the Making?" in State and Society in China: The Consequences of Reform, ed. Arthur Lewis Rosenbaum (Boulder: Westview Press, 1992), p. 77.
16. Timothy Brook and B. Michael Frolic, eds., Civil Society in China (Armonk, NY: M.E. Sharpe, 1997).
17. While there is no single, coordinated labor movement in China today, there is considerable discontent and activism among workers. See, for example, Myles Nienstadt, "Workers in Contemporary China," paper prepared for the annual meeting of the Southeast Conference of the Association of Asian Studies held in Hilton Head, South Carolina, in January 1995. On the renaissance of religion in China generally, see Donald MacInnis, "From Suppression to Repression: Religion in China Today," Current History 95, no. 602 (September 1996): 284-89.
18. While there is no single, coordinated labor movement in China today, there is considerable discontent and activism among workers. See, for example, Myles Nienstadt, "Workers in Contemporary China," paper prepared for the annual meeting of the Southeast Conference of the Association of Asian Studies held in Hilton Head, South Carolina, in January 1995. On the renaissance of religion in China generally, see Donald MacInnis, "From Suppression to Repression: Religion in China Today," Current History 95, no. 602 (September 1996): 284-89.
19. Dorothy J. Solinger, "Urban Entrepreneurs and the State: The Merger of State and Society," in Rosenbaum, State and Society in China, pp. 121-41.
20. Andrew J. Nathan and Tianjian Shi, "Cultural Requisites for Democracy in China: Findings from a Survey," Daedalus 122, no. 2 (spring 1993): 99-104.
21. See, for example, Andrew G. Walder, "Political Upheavals in Communist Party-States," States and Social Structures Newsletter 12 (winter 1990), and "The Political Sociology of the Beijing Upheaval of 1989," Problems of Communism 38, no. 5 (September-October 1989): 30-40.
22. See, for example, Andrew G. Walder, "Political Upheavals in Communist Party-States," States and Social Structures Newsletter 12 (winter 1990), and "The Political Sociology of the Beijing Upheaval of 1989," Problems of Communism 38, no. 5 (September-October 1989): 30-40.
23. Alfred Stepan, Rethinking Military Politics: Brazil and the Southern Cone (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1988), p. xv.
24. This is based on the conceptualization of Hungarian dissident Miklos Haraszti cited in Vladimir Tismaneanu, Reinventing Politics: Eastern Europe from Stalin to Havel (New York: Free Press, 1992), pp. 173-74. This volume also contains a study that documents the collapse of communism in Eastern Europe largely through the prism of a burgeoning civil society.
25. The challenges involved in determining the impact of a particular group or segment of Chinese society, and whether it can justifiably be labeled as civil society, should not be underestimated. For especially good treatments of these problems as they relate to business organizations and China's migrant laborers, respectively, see Christopher Earle Nevitt, "Private Business Associations in China: Evidence of Civil Society or Local State Power?" China Journal 36 (July 1996): 25-43; and Dorothy J. Solinger, "China's Transients and the State: A Form of Civil Society?" Politics and Society 21, no. 1 (March 1993): 91-122.
26. The challenges involved in determining the impact of a particular group or segment of Chinese society, and whether it can justifiably be labeled as civil society, should not be underestimated. For especially good treatments of these problems as they relate to business organizations and China's migrant laborers, respectively, see Christopher Earle Nevitt, "Private Business Associations in China: Evidence of Civil Society or Local State Power?" China Journal 36 (July 1996): 25-43; and Dorothy J. Solinger, "China's Transients and the State: A Form of Civil Society?" Politics and Society 21, no. 1 (March 1993): 91-122.
27. The topic of the military in the collapse of communism has received little attention. For a noteworthy exception, see Zoltan D. Barany, "East European Armed Forces in the Transitions and Beyond," East European Quarterly 26, no. 1 (March 1992): 1-30. Interestingly, the role of the military in democratization generally has also tended to be overlooked. For some noteworthy exceptions, see Stepan, Rethinking Military Politics; and Larry Diamond and Marc F. Plattner, eds., Civil-Military Relations and Democracy (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1996).
28. The topic of the military in the collapse of communism has received little attention. For a noteworthy exception, see Zoltan D. Barany, "East European Armed Forces in the Transitions and Beyond," East European Quarterly 26, no. 1 (March 1992): 1-30. Interestingly, the role of the military in democratization generally has also tended to be overlooked. For some noteworthy exceptions, see Stepan, Rethinking Military Politics; and Larry Diamond and Marc F. Plattner, eds., Civil-Military Relations and Democracy (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1996).
29. See, for example, Michael D. Swaine, The Military and Political Succession in China: Leadership, Institutions, Beliefs (Santa Monica: Rand Corporation, 1992).
30. Here I am paraphrasing Richard J. Latham, "China's Party-Army Relations After June 1989: A Case for Miles' Law?" in China's Military: The PLA in 1990/1991, ed. Richard H. Yang et al. (Boulder: Westview Press, 1991), p. 112.
31. Andrew Scobell, "Why the People's Army Fired on the People," in Chinese Democracy and the Crisis of 1989, ed. Des Forges et al., pp. 191-121.
32. Barany, "East European Armed Forces in the Transition and Beyond," especially p. 13.
33. There is no way to accurately gauge the number of officers who hold this view. Determining the beliefs and thinking of soldiers is a challenging exercise in the best of circumstances, even when a researcher is able to conduct interviews. See, for example, Swaine, The Military and Political Succession in China, p. 165. For more on the beliefs of Chinese soldiers, see Part IV.
34. See, for example, "An Analysis of 'De-politicization of the Military,'" Qiushi 2 (1991) excerpted in Inside China Mainland (May 1991): 1-2; Renmin ribao (June 24, 1991), translated in Foreign Broadcast Information Service, Daily Report: China [hereafter FBIS:CHI] (June 26, 1991): 37; Renmin ribao (July 29, 1991), in FBIS:CHI (August 8, 1991): 14-15.
35. See, for example, "An Analysis of 'De-politicization of the Military,'" Qiushi 2 (1991) excerpted in Inside China Mainland (May 1991): 1-2; Renmin ribao (June 24, 1991), translated in Foreign Broadcast Information Service, Daily Report: China [hereafter FBIS:CHI] (June 26, 1991): 37; Renmin ribao (July 29, 1991), in FBIS:CHI (August 8, 1991): 14-15.
36. See, for example, "An Analysis of 'De-politicization of the Military,'" Qiushi 2 (1991) excerpted in Inside China Mainland (May 1991): 1-2; Renmin ribao (June 24, 1991), translated in Foreign Broadcast Information Service, Daily Report: China [hereafter FBIS:CHI] (June 26, 1991): 37; Renmin ribao (July 29, 1991), in FBIS:CHI (August 8, 1991): 14-15.
37. See, for example, "An Analysis of 'De-politicization of the Military,'" Qiushi 2 (1991) excerpted in Inside China Mainland (May 1991): 1-2; Renmin ribao (June 24, 1991), translated in Foreign Broadcast Information Service, Daily Report: China [hereafter FBIS:CHI] (June 26, 1991): 37; Renmin ribao (July 29, 1991), in FBIS:CHI (August 8, 1991): 14-15.
38. See, for example, "An Analysis of 'De-politicization of the Military,'" Qiushi 2 (1991) excerpted in Inside China Mainland (May 1991): 1-2; Renmin ribao (June 24, 1991), translated in Foreign Broadcast Information Service, Daily Report: China [hereafter FBIS:CHI] (June 26, 1991): 37; Renmin ribao (July 29, 1991), in FBIS:CHI (August 8, 1991): 14-15.
39. See, for example, "An Analysis of 'De-politicization of the Military,'" Qiushi 2 (1991) excerpted in Inside China Mainland (May 1991): 1-2; Renmin ribao (June 24, 1991), translated in Foreign Broadcast Information Service, Daily Report: China [hereafter FBIS:CHI] (June 26, 1991): 37; Renmin ribao (July 29, 1991), in FBIS:CHI (August 8, 1991): 14-15.
40. Beijing Review (October 2-8, 1995): 16-19.
41. The best evidence that such views exist within the military and hold strong appeal is found in official publications that take these perspectives very seriously. "Nationalization" and "depoliticization" of the armed forces are explicitly and methodically attacked in the articles cited in note 27.
42. Swaine, The Military and Political Succession in China, p. 165, n 24.
43. Tang tai [Hong Kong] (October 20, 1990), in FBIS:CHI (October 25, 1990): 32.
44. Tang tai [Hong Kong] (October 20, 1990), in FBIS:CHI (October 25, 1990): 32.
45. Scobell, "Why the People's Army Fired on the People," p. 197.
46. Der Spiegel (June 5, 1989), in FBIS:CHI (June 7, 1989): 30.
47. Der Spiegel (June 5, 1989), in FBIS:CHI (June 7, 1989): 30.
48. Samuel P. Huntington, The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century (Norman, OK: University of Oklahoma Press, 1991), p. 102.
49. Shin, "On the Third Wave," pp. 153, 170. See also Harvey Starr, "Democratic Dominoes: Diffusion Approaches to the Spread of Democracy in the International System," Journal of Conflict Resolution 35, no. 2 (June 1991): 356-81.
50. Shin, "On the Third Wave," pp. 153, 170. See also Harvey Starr, "Democratic Dominoes: Diffusion Approaches to the Spread of Democracy in the International System," Journal of Conflict Resolution 35, no. 2 (June 1991): 356-81.
51. Walder, "The Political Sociology of the Beijing Upheaval," pp. 31-33.
52. Moreover, China views Japan with a mixture of admiration, jealousy, and animosity. Japan is seen as more of a model of economic growth and a developmental state. See Edward Friedman, National Identity and Democratic Prospects in Socialist China (Armonk, NY: M.E. Sharpe, 1994), pp. 135-36. For a more general analysis of China's relations with Japan, see chap. 8, and Allen S. Whiting, China Eyes Japan (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1989).
53. Moreover, China views Japan with a mixture of admiration, jealousy, and animosity. Japan is seen as more of a model of economic growth and a developmental state. See Edward Friedman, National Identity and Democratic Prospects in Socialist China (Armonk, NY: M.E. Sharpe, 1994), pp. 135-36. For a more general analysis of China's relations with Japan, see chap. 8, and Allen S. Whiting, China Eyes Japan (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1989).
54. Deng's 1992 remarks expressing strong admiration for Singapore are cited in Friedman, National Identity and Democratic Prospects, p. 152.
55. For a number of reasons, Taiwan, Hong Kong, South Korea, and Singapore are models of modernization that many Chinese find particularly appealing and relevant to China's predicament. See, for example, Link, Evening Chats in Beijing, p. 204.
56. Andrew Scobell, "Hong Kong's Influence on China: The Tail That Wags the Dog?" Asian Survey 21, no. 6 (June 1988): 599-612.
57. Link, Evening Chats in Beijing, p. 282.
58. Friedman, National Identity and Democratic Prospects.
59. Kuan Hsin-chi and Lau Siu-kai, "The Partial Vision of Democracy in Hong Kong," China Journal 34 (July 1995): 255. A plurality of Hong Kong people surveyed on five different occasions over a seven-year period ( 1985-92) consistently held that a democratic government was one that "is willing to consult public opinion." The proportions of respondents agreeing with this definition ranged from a high of 44.2 percent in 1985 to a low of 35.9 percent in 1991.