A Reinterpretation Of The New Deal Realignment

Public Opinion Quarterly

Volumn 35, Issue 4, 1971, Pages 621-624

  Shively, By W Phillips ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 0040637366     PISSN: 0033362X     EISSN: 15375331     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1086/267960     Document Type: Article

References (13)

1. V. O. Key, Jr., “A Theory of Critical Elections, ” Journal of Politics, Vol. 17, 1955, pp. 1-18.
2. MacRae, Jr., and James A. Meldrum, “Critical Elections in Illinois: 1888-1958, ” American Political Science Review, Vol. 54, 1960, pp. 669-683
3. Angus Campbell et al., The American Voter, New York, Wiley, 1960, particularly pp. 153-160 and 534-536
4. Charles Sellers, “The Equilibrium Cycle in Two-Party Politics, ” Public Opinion Quarterly Vol. 89, 1965, pp. 16-38
5. Gerald Pom per, “Classification of Presidential Elections, ” Journal of Politics, Vol. 19, 1967, pp. 535-566.
6. MacRae and Meldrum, Journal of Politics., pp. 673-678.
7. Campbell et al., Journal of Politics., pp. 534-535.
8. For a brief description of the poll, see Frederick Mosteller et al., The Pre-Eleclion Polls of 1948, New York, Social Science Research Council, Bulletin #60, 1949, pp. 10-11.
9. Because the Digest panel was 10 large, the respondents themselves comprised a significant portion of the national electorate. In 1936, for example, the Digest received 8, 376, 523 responses to its mailed ballot; there were 45, 654, 763 votes cast in that election. And of course, they represent an even larger proportion of the middle-dais electorate.
10. Robert R. Alford, Party and Society, Chicago, Rand McNally, 1963, p. 227.
11. See Key, Party and Society., pp. 8 and 10
12. MacRae and Meldrum, Party and Society., pp. 674-677. Evidence that the LaFollette vote was part of a move which culminated in voting for Smith is particularly strong in the work by MacRae and Meldrum. Republican losses from 1920 to 1924 were correlated +.63 with the 1924 LaFollette vote, while Democratic gains from 1924 to 1928 were correlated +.88 with it. Over-all, the Democratic change from 1920 to 1928 correlated +.77 with the LaFollette vote (P- 677).
13. Using state data, for example, Pom per finds a correlation of +.93 between percent Democratic in 1932 and 1936. The similar correlation for 1924 and 1928 is +.77 (op. cit., p. 545). MacRae and Meldrum, using more sensitive county data, register the movement from 193s to 1936, but it does not appear to be nearly as great as the shift from 1984 to igs8 (op. cit., p. 674).