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1
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0008407372
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(ed. P. Drazin et al.). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press
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Lewis Fry Richardson (ed. P. Drazin et al.). The Collected Papers of Lewis Fry Richardson, Vois. 1 and 2 (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1995), from now on referred to as Collected Papers.
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(1995)
The Collected Papers of Lewis Fry Richardson
, vol.1-2
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Richardson, L.F.1
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3
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34948877430
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Pittsburgh, Penn.: Boxwood Press
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Lewis Fry Richardson, Statistics of Deadly Quarrels (Pittsburgh, Penn.: Boxwood Press, 1960), and Arms and Insecurity: A Mathematical Study of the Causes and Origins of War (Pittsburgh, Penn.: Boxwood Press, 1960).
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(1960)
Statistics of Deadly Quarrels
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Richardson, L.F.1
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5
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85034140678
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note
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'Studies of Conflict' is how the editors of the Collected Papers describe Richardson's work in the area of causes of war, arms races and so on, and this is as good a term as any. 'International relations' and 'peace research' were not names that Richardson used though most people working in such areas today would normally refer to themselves as working in one or both of those fields. In particular, the term 'peace research' did not come into widespread use until the 1960s. However, Richardson is claimed by peace researchers as one of their own and, indeed, as a founding member of the field. The term 'peace research' has always been looked at rather suspiciously in Britain as being something which looks uncomfortably left-wing or, at least, shows a degree of commitment improper in a supposedly detached social scientist. There have been no such inhibitions in Germany and Scandinavia and also, perhaps surprisingly, the term has been used quite readily in the United States. 'Polemology' is used in France and the Netherlands. 'Irenology' has been tried but never became popular.
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6
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0003650543
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London: Pinter, particularly in Chapter 7
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I talk of 'testing' as the primary form of the confrontation of theory with fact rather than 'refutation'. Social statistics involve index numbers or indicators and hardly any unambiguously defined variables. Thus, refutation becomes trivially easy simply by the selection of an appropriate measure. To the horror of any dedicated Popperian, social scientists are often trying to confirm hypotheses rather than refute them. I discuss this in more detail in Michael Nicholson, Causes and Consequences in International Relations (London: Pinter, 1996), particularly in Chapter 7.
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(1996)
Causes and Consequences in International Relations
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Nicholson, M.1
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10
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84991813512
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My own life
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T. H. Green and T. W. Grose, eds, London: Longman
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David Hume, 'My Own Life', in T. H. Green and T. W. Grose, eds, Essays, Moral Political and Literary (London: Longman, 1889), Vol. 1, p. 2.
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(1889)
Essays, Moral Political and Literary
, vol.1
, pp. 2
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Hume, D.1
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11
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85034152880
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note
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Leonard Woolf Papers (SxMs13) IL10 d. University of Sussex Library. I am indebted to Peter Wilson of the London School of Economics for directing me towards this.
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12
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85034123435
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note
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This paper was dated about a month before his death and found in a folder.
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13
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34250932017
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War moods: Part I
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Lewis Fry Richardson, 'War Moods: Part I', Psychometrica, 13 (1948), 147-74; 'War Moods: Part II', Psychometrica, 13 (1948), 197-232. Also reprinted in the Collected Works.
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(1948)
Psychometrica
, vol.13
, pp. 147-174
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Richardson, L.F.1
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14
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34250907293
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War moods: Part II
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Also reprinted in the Collected Works
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Lewis Fry Richardson, 'War Moods: Part I', Psychometrica, 13 (1948), 147-74; 'War Moods: Part II', Psychometrica, 13 (1948), 197-232. Also reprinted in the Collected Works.
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(1948)
Psychometrica
, vol.13
, pp. 197-232
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16
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0003929052
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Oxford: Clarendon Press
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For example, J. R. Hicks, A Contribution to the Theory of the Trade Cycle (Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1950). Samuelson also discusses this in Paul A. Samuelson, Foundations of Economic Analysis (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1947).
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(1950)
A Contribution to the Theory of the Trade Cycle
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Hicks, J.R.1
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17
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0003768232
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Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press
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For example, J. R. Hicks, A Contribution to the Theory of the Trade Cycle (Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1950). Samuelson also discusses this in Paul A. Samuelson, Foundations of Economic Analysis (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1947).
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(1947)
Foundations of Economic Analysis
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Samuelson, P.A.1
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18
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0004203994
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New York: Harper and Row
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Kenneth Boulding, Conflict and Defense (New York: Harper and Row, 1962); Anatol Rapoport, Fights, Games, Debates (Ann Arbor: Michigan University Press, 1974 (1st edn. 1960)); Michael Nicholson, Formal Models in International Relations (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1989), and Rationality and the Analysis of International Conflict (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1993).
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(1962)
Conflict and Defense
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Boulding, K.1
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19
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0004261667
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Ann Arbor: Michigan University Press, 1st edn. 1960
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Kenneth Boulding, Conflict and Defense (New York: Harper and Row, 1962); Anatol Rapoport, Fights, Games, Debates (Ann Arbor: Michigan University Press, 1974 (1st edn. 1960)); Michael Nicholson, Formal Models in International Relations (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1989), and Rationality and the Analysis of International Conflict (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1993).
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(1974)
Fights, Games, Debates
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Rapoport, A.1
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20
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0040494940
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Cambridge: Cambridge University Press
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Kenneth Boulding, Conflict and Defense (New York: Harper and Row, 1962); Anatol Rapoport, Fights, Games, Debates (Ann Arbor: Michigan University Press, 1974 (1st edn. 1960)); Michael Nicholson, Formal Models in International Relations (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1989), and Rationality and the Analysis of International Conflict (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1993).
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(1989)
Formal Models in International Relations
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Nicholson, M.1
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21
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0040494942
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Cambridge: Cambridge University Press
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Kenneth Boulding, Conflict and Defense (New York: Harper and Row, 1962); Anatol Rapoport, Fights, Games, Debates (Ann Arbor: Michigan University Press, 1974 (1st edn. 1960)); Michael Nicholson, Formal Models in International Relations (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1989), and Rationality and the Analysis of International Conflict (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1993).
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(1993)
Rationality and the Analysis of International Conflict
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22
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0041088959
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Richardson's n-nation model and the balance of power
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Philip A. Schrodt, 'Richardson's n-nation Model and the Balance of Power', American Journal of Political Science, 22 (1978), 364-90, and Preserving Arms Distributions in a Multi-Polar World: A Mathematical Study (Denver, Colo.: Monograph Series in World Affairs, University of Denver, 1984).
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(1978)
American Journal of Political Science
, vol.22
, pp. 364-390
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Schrodt, P.A.1
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23
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0039901961
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Denver, Colo.: Monograph Series in World Affairs, University of Denver
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Philip A. Schrodt, 'Richardson's n-nation Model and the Balance of Power', American Journal of Political Science, 22 (1978), 364-90, and Preserving Arms Distributions in a Multi-Polar World: A Mathematical Study (Denver, Colo.: Monograph Series in World Affairs, University of Denver, 1984).
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(1984)
Preserving Arms Distributions in a Multi-Polar World: A Mathematical Study
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24
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84965452031
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New York: Praeger
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Dinna A. Zinnes and John V. Gillespie, Mathematical Models in International Relations (New York: Praeger, 1976). These have been followed by many papers, e.g. Dina A. Zinnes and Robert G. Muncaster, 'The Dynamics of Hostile Activity and the Prediction of War', Journal of Conflict Resolution, 28 (1984), 187-229.
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(1976)
Mathematical Models in International Relations
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Zinnes, D.A.1
Gillespie, J.V.2
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25
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84965452031
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The dynamics of hostile activity and the prediction of war
-
Dinna A. Zinnes and John V. Gillespie, Mathematical Models in International Relations (New York: Praeger, 1976). These have been followed by many papers, e.g. Dina A. Zinnes and Robert G. Muncaster, 'The Dynamics of Hostile Activity and the Prediction of War', Journal of Conflict Resolution, 28 (1984), 187-229.
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(1984)
Journal of Conflict Resolution
, vol.28
, pp. 187-229
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Zinnes, D.A.1
Muncaster, R.G.2
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27
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0003606962
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Beverly Hills, Calif.: Sage
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A well-known dataset is the Correlates of War for which see J. David Singer and Melvin Small, Resort to Arms (Beverly Hills, Calif.: Sage, 1982). See Claudio Cioffi-Revilla, The Scientific Measurement of International Conflict: Handbook of Data Sets on Crises and Wars 1495-1988 (Boulder, Colo.: Lynne Reiner, 1990), for a description of some more recent datasets.
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(1982)
Resort to Arms
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Singer, J.D.1
Small, M.2
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29
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0004277135
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Chicago: Chicago University Press
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Quincy Wright, A Study of War (Chicago: Chicago University Press, 1942); Pitrim Sorokin, Social and Cultural Dynamics (n.p.: American Book Co., 1937), A. J. Toynbee (abridged by D. C. Somervell), A Study of History (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1949).
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(1942)
A Study of War
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Wright, Q.1
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30
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0004236858
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n.p.: American Book Co.
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Quincy Wright, A Study of War (Chicago: Chicago University Press, 1942); Pitrim Sorokin, Social and Cultural Dynamics (n.p.: American Book Co., 1937), A. J. Toynbee (abridged by D. C. Somervell), A Study of History (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1949).
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(1937)
Social and Cultural Dynamics
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Sorokin, P.1
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31
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0004288966
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abridged by D. C. Somervell, Oxford: Oxford University Press
-
Quincy Wright, A Study of War (Chicago: Chicago University Press, 1942); Pitrim Sorokin, Social and Cultural Dynamics (n.p.: American Book Co., 1937), A. J. Toynbee (abridged by D. C. Somervell), A Study of History (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1949).
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(1949)
A Study of History
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Toynbee, A.J.1
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33
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85034153684
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note
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After the Falklands/Malvinas War the author had optimistically hoped to do just this, only to find that the available data was so sparse as to make the testing of a Richardson-style model almost impossible.
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35
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0004192228
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Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall
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Richard M. Cyert and James G. March, A Behavioral Theory of the Firm (Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall, 1963); Herbert A. Simon, Models of Man (New York: Wiley, 1957).
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(1963)
A Behavioral Theory of the Firm
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Cyert, R.M.1
March, J.G.2
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36
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0004184073
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New York: Wiley
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Richard M. Cyert and James G. March, A Behavioral Theory of the Firm (Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall, 1963); Herbert A. Simon, Models of Man (New York: Wiley, 1957).
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(1957)
Models of Man
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Simon, H.A.1
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40
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0004217326
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Cambridge: Cambridge University Press
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D'Arcy Thomson, Growth and Form (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1917).
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(1917)
Growth and Form
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Thomson, D.1
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42
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0004061821
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Oxford: Oxford University Press
-
J. B. S. Haldane's work, along with his vast bibliography of both technical and popular work, is discussed in Ronald Clark, JBS: The Life and Work of J. B. S. Haldane (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1984).
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(1984)
JBS: The Life and Work of J. B. S. Haldane
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Clark, R.1
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44
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0004131957
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trans. W. Jaffe London: George Allen and Unwin, first published in French, 1874-77
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L. Walras, Elements of Pure Economics, trans. W. Jaffe (London: George Allen and Unwin, 1954; first published in French, 1874-77).
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(1954)
Elements of Pure Economics
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Walras, L.1
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45
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0003736757
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London: Macmillan
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Alfred Marshall, Principles of Economics (London: Macmillan, 1897). Marshall had been second wrangler in 1865 at Cambridge (that is, he got the second-best result in mathematics in his year).
-
(1897)
Principles of Economics
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Marshall, A.1
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46
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26444435067
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Bloomington, Ind.: Prinapin Press
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Nicolas Rashevsky, A Mathematical Theory of Human Relations (Bloomington, Ind.: Prinapin Press, 1948), and The Mathematical Biology of Social Behavior (Ann Arbor: Chicago University Press, 1951, 2nd edn, 1959). Rashevsky was one of the editors of Arms and Insecurity.
-
(1948)
A Mathematical Theory of Human Relations
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Rashevsky, N.1
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47
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0003002060
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Ann Arbor: Chicago University Press, 2nd edn
-
Nicolas Rashevsky, A Mathematical Theory of Human Relations (Bloomington, Ind.: Prinapin Press, 1948), and The Mathematical Biology of Social Behavior (Ann Arbor: Chicago University Press, 1951, 2nd edn, 1959). Rashevsky was one of the editors of Arms and Insecurity.
-
(1951)
The Mathematical Biology of Social Behavior
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-
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48
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85034147366
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Nicolas Rashevsky, A Mathematical Theory of Human Relations (Bloomington, Ind.: Prinapin Press, 1948), and The Mathematical Biology of Social Behavior (Ann Arbor: Chicago University Press, 1951, 2nd edn, 1959). Rashevsky was one of the editors of Arms and Insecurity.
-
Arms and Insecurity
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Rashevsky1
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49
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0004277135
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2 vols. Chicago: Chicago University Press
-
Quincy Wright, A Study of War, 2 vols. (Chicago: Chicago University Press, 1942).
-
(1942)
A Study of War
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Wright, Q.1
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50
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85034152943
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note
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The author held this view until the preparation of this article.
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53
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0039683527
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Lewis Fry Richardson's mathematical theory of war
-
Anatol Rapoport, 'Lewis Fry Richardson's Mathematical Theory of War', Journal of Conflict Resolution, 1 (1957), 249-99.
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(1957)
Journal of Conflict Resolution
, vol.1
, pp. 249-299
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Rapoport, A.1
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54
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0004165120
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Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press
-
Thomas C. Schelling, The Strategy of Conflict (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1960).
-
(1960)
The Strategy of Conflict
-
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Schelling, T.C.1
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55
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85034147899
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note
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The Richardson Institute for Peace Research at the University of Lancaster, founded in London in 1970 on the basis of the Peace Research Centre in Lancaster, is to some extent a counter to this. The institute returned to Lancaster as a part of the university in 1978, where it remains.
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56
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85034144488
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note
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I am indebted to Phil Schrodt for this point.
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