The strategic context of Russo-Chinese relations

Issues and Studies

Volumn 36, Issue 4, 2000, Pages 66-93

  Blank, Stephen J ^a  

^a NONE

Author keywords

China; Defense policies; Foreign policies; Russia; United states

Indexed keywords

EID: 0040433426     PISSN: 10132511     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: None     Document Type: Article

References (159)

1. "Statement of the Honorable Walter B. Slocombe, Undersecretary of Defense for Policy, Before a Hearing of the House Committee on International Relations Subcommittee on Asia and the Pacific" (May 7, 1998), Northeast Asia Peace and Security Network Special Report, U.S. Security Interests in the Pacific (May 11, 1998).
2. Ibid.
3. Rajan Menon, "The Strategic Convergence Between Russia and China," Survival 39, no. 2 (Summer 1997): 117.
4. Elizabeth Wishnick, "Prospects for the Sino-Russian Partnership: Views from Moscow and the Russian Far East," Journal of East Asian Affairs 12, no. 2 (Summer-Fall 1998): 418-51; Gilbert Rozman, "The Crisis of the Russian Far East: Who Is to Blame?" Problems of Post-Communism 44, no. 5 (September-October 1997): 3-12; Gilbert Rozman, "Troubled Choices for the Russian Far East: Decentralization, Open Regionalism, and Internationalism," Journal of East Asian Affairs 11, no. 2 (Summer-Fall 1997): 537-69.
5. Elizabeth Wishnick, "Prospects for the Sino-Russian Partnership: Views from Moscow and the Russian Far East," Journal of East Asian Affairs 12, no. 2 (Summer-Fall 1998): 418-51; Gilbert Rozman, "The Crisis of the Russian Far East: Who Is to Blame?" Problems of Post-Communism 44, no. 5 (September-October 1997): 3-12; Gilbert Rozman, "Troubled Choices for the Russian Far East: Decentralization, Open Regionalism, and Internationalism," Journal of East Asian Affairs 11, no. 2 (Summer-Fall 1997): 537-69.
6. Elizabeth Wishnick, "Prospects for the Sino-Russian Partnership: Views from Moscow and the Russian Far East," Journal of East Asian Affairs 12, no. 2 (Summer-Fall 1998): 418-51; Gilbert Rozman, "The Crisis of the Russian Far East: Who Is to Blame?" Problems of Post-Communism 44, no. 5 (September-October 1997): 3-12; Gilbert Rozman, "Troubled Choices for the Russian Far East: Decentralization, Open Regionalism, and Internationalism," Journal of East Asian Affairs 11, no. 2 (Summer-Fall 1997): 537-69.
7. Ibid. See also the following articles by Gilbert Rozman: "Northeast China: Waiting for Regionalism," Problems of Post-Communism 45, no. 4 (July-August 1998): 3-13; "Flawed Regionalism: Reconceptualizing Northeast Asia in the 1990s," Pacific Review 11, no. 1 (1998): 1-27.
8. Ibid. See also the following articles by Gilbert Rozman: "Northeast China: Waiting for Regionalism," Problems of Post-Communism 45, no. 4 (July-August 1998): 3-13; "Flawed Regionalism: Reconceptualizing Northeast Asia in the 1990s," Pacific Review 11, no. 1 (1998): 1-27.
9. Ibid.
10. For example, see the editorial, "Bear and Dragon," Financial Times, August 28, 1999, 11 and "Can a Bear Love a Dragon?" The Economist, April 26, 1997, 19-21 .
11. For example, see the editorial, "Bear and Dragon," Financial Times, August 28, 1999, 11 and "Can a Bear Love a Dragon?" The Economist, April 26, 1997, 19-21 .
12. Ibid.
13. John W. Garver, "Sino-Russian Relations," in China and the World: Chinese Foreign Policy Faces the New Millennium, ed. Samuel S. Kim (Boulder, Colo.: Westview Press, 1998), 119.
14. Open Media Research Institute, Daily Digest, May 13, 1995; Xuewu Gu, "China's Policy Toward Russia," Aussenpolitik (English edition), 1993, no. 3:293; Xinhua Domestic Service, Beijing in Chinese, in Foreign Broadcast Information Service (FBIS), China [hereafter FBIS-CHI]-94-018 (January 27, 1994): 10-11.
15. Open Media Research Institute, Daily Digest, May 13, 1995; Xuewu Gu, "China's Policy Toward Russia," Aussenpolitik (English edition), 1993, no. 3:293; Xinhua Domestic Service, Beijing in Chinese, in Foreign Broadcast Information Service (FBIS), China [hereafter FBIS-CHI]-94-018 (January 27, 1994): 10-11.
16. Open Media Research Institute, Daily Digest, May 13, 1995; Xuewu Gu, "China's Policy Toward Russia," Aussenpolitik (English edition), 1993, no. 3:293; Xinhua Domestic Service, Beijing in Chinese, in Foreign Broadcast Information Service (FBIS), China [hereafter FBIS-CHI]-94-018 (January 27, 1994): 10-11.
17. For recent but differing assessments of China's military-economic rise, see Steven Rosefielde, "Changing the Guard in the Asia-Pacific," Problems of Post-Communism 46, no. 6 (November-December 1999): 37-47; Lawrence E. Grinter, ed., The Dragon Awakes: China's Military Modernization - Trends and Implications (Maxwell AFB, Ala.: USAF Counterproliferation Center, 1999); and Mark A. Stokes, China's Strategic Modernization: Implications for the United States (Carlisle Barracks, Penn.: Strategic Studies Institute U.S. Army War College, 1999); James R. Lilley and David Shambaugh, eds., China's Military Faces the Future (Armonk, N.Y.: M.E. Sharpe, 1999). These are only some of the more recent and provocative of the many studies on China's rising economic and military power.
18. For recent but differing assessments of China's military-economic rise, see Steven Rosefielde, "Changing the Guard in the Asia-Pacific," Problems of Post-Communism 46, no. 6 (November-December 1999): 37-47; Lawrence E. Grinter, ed., The Dragon Awakes: China's Military Modernization - Trends and Implications (Maxwell AFB, Ala.: USAF Counterproliferation Center, 1999); and Mark A. Stokes, China's Strategic Modernization: Implications for the United States (Carlisle Barracks, Penn.: Strategic Studies Institute U.S. Army War College, 1999); James R. Lilley and David Shambaugh, eds., China's Military Faces the Future (Armonk, N.Y.: M.E. Sharpe, 1999). These are only some of the more recent and provocative of the many studies on China's rising economic and military power.
19. For recent but differing assessments of China's military-economic rise, see Steven Rosefielde, "Changing the Guard in the Asia-Pacific," Problems of Post-Communism 46, no. 6 (November-December 1999): 37-47; Lawrence E. Grinter, ed., The Dragon Awakes: China's Military Modernization - Trends and Implications (Maxwell AFB, Ala.: USAF Counterproliferation Center, 1999); and Mark A. Stokes, China's Strategic Modernization: Implications for the United States (Carlisle Barracks, Penn.: Strategic Studies Institute U.S. Army War College, 1999); James R. Lilley and David Shambaugh, eds., China's Military Faces the Future (Armonk, N.Y.: M.E. Sharpe, 1999). These are only some of the more recent and provocative of the many studies on China's rising economic and military power.
20. For recent but differing assessments of China's military-economic rise, see Steven Rosefielde, "Changing the Guard in the Asia-Pacific," Problems of Post-Communism 46, no. 6 (November-December 1999): 37-47; Lawrence E. Grinter, ed., The Dragon Awakes: China's Military Modernization - Trends and Implications (Maxwell AFB, Ala.: USAF Counterproliferation Center, 1999); and Mark A. Stokes, China's Strategic Modernization: Implications for the United States (Carlisle Barracks, Penn.: Strategic Studies Institute U.S. Army War College, 1999); James R. Lilley and David Shambaugh, eds., China's Military Faces the Future (Armonk, N.Y.: M.E. Sharpe, 1999). These are only some of the more recent and provocative of the many studies on China's rising economic and military power.
21. Barbara Opall-Rome, "Economics, Russian Reluctance Slow PLA Arms Drive," Defense News, February 8, 1999, 9.
22. Li Jingjie, "The Progress of Chinese-Russian Relations: From Friendship to Strategic Partnership," Far Eastern Affairs, May-June 1997, no. 3:40.
23. June Teufel Dreyer, "China's Military Strategy Regarding Japan," in Lilley and Shambaugh, China's Military Faces the Future, 322-33, esp. 328-30.
24. The Monitor, December 23 and 24, 1998.
25. See note 12 above.
26. For one example, Kathy Chen, "China's Inability to Keep Subs Running Shows Broader Woes Plaguing Military," Wall Street Journal, August 1, 1997, 1, 11.
27. See note 12 above.
28. For a comprehensive review of the literature on Chinese national security and defense policy that makes these arguments and cites much of the literature relevant to this discussion, see Jing-Dong Yuan, "Studying Chinese Security Policy: Toward an Analytical Framework," Journal of East Asian Affairs 13, no. 1 (Spring-Summer 1999): 131-95, esp. 153-56; and David M. Lampton, Managing U.S.-China Relations in the Twenty-first Century (Washington, D.C.: The Nixon Center, 1999), 11-19.
29. For a comprehensive review of the literature on Chinese national security and defense policy that makes these arguments and cites much of the literature relevant to this discussion, see Jing-Dong Yuan, "Studying Chinese Security Policy: Toward an Analytical Framework," Journal of East Asian Affairs 13, no. 1 (Spring-Summer 1999): 131-95, esp. 153-56; and David M. Lampton, Managing U.S.-China Relations in the Twenty-first Century (Washington, D.C.: The Nixon Center, 1999), 11-19.
30. Ibid. RMA is the adaptation of contemporary information and telecommunications technology for military purposes.
31. Ibid.
32. Bob Herbert, "War Games," New York Times, February 23, 1998, E17.
33. Samuel S. Kim, "Chinese Foreign Policy in Theory and Practice," in Kim, China and the World, 4-6, 21-23.
34. Ibid.; Stephen J. Blank, "Russian Democracy: From the Future to the Past," Demokratizatsiya (Democratization) 6, no. 3 (Summer 1998): 550-77.
35. Kim, "Chinese Foreign Policy in Theory and Practice," 19.
36. Ibid., 21-23; alastair Iain Johnston, "Institutional Structures and Chinese Foreign Policy," in Kim, China and the World, 73-79.
37. Ibid., 21-23; alastair Iain Johnston, "Institutional Structures and Chinese Foreign Policy," in Kim, China and the World, 73-79.
38. Ibid. For recent official American views, see Strobe Talbott, "Self-Determination in an Interdependent World, " Foreign Policy, Spring 2000, available at 〈http://www.foreignpolicy. com〉; Remarks as Delivered by Deputy Secretary of Defense John Hamre to the U.S. Army Seminar on "The Future of the U.S. Military Presence in Europe," at the University of Chicago Law School, Chicago, Illinois, August 4, 1999.
39. Ibid. For recent official American views, see Strobe Talbott, "Self-Determination in an Interdependent World, " Foreign Policy, Spring 2000, available at 〈http://www.foreignpolicy. com〉; Remarks as Delivered by Deputy Secretary of Defense John Hamre to the U.S. Army Seminar on "The Future of the U.S. Military Presence in Europe," at the University of Chicago Law School, Chicago, Illinois, August 4, 1999.
40. R. Craig Nation, Beyond the Cold War: Change and Continuityin U.S.-Russian Relations (Calisle Barraks, Penn.: Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, 1997), 17-25.
41. Stephen J. Blank, "China and the Transcaspian," Cyber-Caravan 1, no. 8 (August 1999): 4-5.
42. Komsomolskaya Pravda (Communist Youth League Truth) (Moscow), September 30, 1998, in FBIS, Central Eurasia [hereafter FBIS-SOV], September 30, 1998.
43. V. Lukov, "Russia's Security Challenges," International Affairs (Moscow), 1997, no. 1: 14-15.
44. See note 30 above.
45. "Yeltsin Address to Diplomats," Mezhdunarodnaya Zhizn' (International Life), June 1998, no. 6 and The Russian Weekly, no. 6 (July 24, 1998), available through 〈davidjohnson@ erols.com〉. See also Vooruzhenie, Politika, Konversiya (Armament, Politics, and Conversion) (Moscow), February 1, 1997, no. 2, in FBIS-SOV, August 23, 1998, for an interview with Ivan Rybkin, then secretary of the Security Council; "Russia's National Interests," Johnson's Russia List, August 15, 1997. available through 〈davidjohnson@erols.com〉; Paul Goble, "Can Russian Diplomacy Hold Russia Together," Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty Newsline, September 23, 1998; The Monitor, March 19 and September 23, 1998; Yevgeny Primakov, "Russia: Reforms and Foreign Policy," International Affairs (Moscow), 1998, no. 4:3-6; "Ivan Rybkin on Russia's Global Role," Johnson's Russia List, July 8, 1997, available through 〈davidjohnson@erols.com〉; Izvestiya (News) (Moscow), January 21, 1998, in FBIS-SOV, February 3, 1998; Oleg V. Davydov, "Russia's Foreign Policy in Transition: Prospects and Challenges in the Asia-Pacific Region," Asian Perspective 22, no. 1 (Spring 1998): 53-69; Mikhail A. Alekseev, "Russia's Cold Peace Consensus: Transcending the Presidential Election," Fletcher Forum of World Affairs 21, no. 1 (Winter-Spring 1997): 33-51, Ambassador Evgeny V. Afanasiev, "Asia-Pacific Region: A Russian Perspective" (Paper presented at the Annual National Defense University Asia-Pacific Symposium, Honolulu, Hawaii, March 1-2, 1999); Finnish Institute of International Affairs. Russia Beyond 2000: The Prospects for Russian Developments and Their Implications for Finland (Helsinki: 1999). 1-2.
46. "Yeltsin Address to Diplomats," Mezhdunarodnaya Zhizn' (International Life), June 1998, no. 6 and The Russian Weekly, no. 6 (July 24, 1998), available through 〈davidjohnson@ erols.com〉. See also Vooruzhenie, Politika, Konversiya (Armament, Politics, and Conversion) (Moscow), February 1, 1997, no. 2, in FBIS-SOV, August 23, 1998, for an interview with Ivan Rybkin, then secretary of the Security Council; "Russia's National Interests," Johnson's Russia List, August 15, 1997. available through 〈davidjohnson@erols.com〉; Paul Goble, "Can Russian Diplomacy Hold Russia Together," Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty Newsline, September 23, 1998; The Monitor, March 19 and September 23, 1998; Yevgeny Primakov, "Russia: Reforms and Foreign Policy," International Affairs (Moscow), 1998, no. 4:3-6; "Ivan Rybkin on Russia's Global Role," Johnson's Russia List, July 8, 1997, available through 〈davidjohnson@erols.com〉; Izvestiya (News) (Moscow), January 21, 1998, in FBIS-SOV, February 3, 1998; Oleg V. Davydov, "Russia's Foreign Policy in Transition: Prospects and Challenges in the Asia-Pacific Region," Asian Perspective 22, no. 1 (Spring 1998): 53-69; Mikhail A. Alekseev, "Russia's Cold Peace Consensus: Transcending the Presidential Election," Fletcher Forum of World Affairs 21, no. 1 (Winter-Spring 1997): 33-51, Ambassador Evgeny V. Afanasiev, "Asia-Pacific Region: A Russian Perspective" (Paper presented at the Annual National Defense University Asia-Pacific Symposium, Honolulu, Hawaii, March 1-2, 1999); Finnish Institute of International Affairs. Russia Beyond 2000: The Prospects for Russian Developments and Their Implications for Finland (Helsinki: 1999). 1-2.
47. "Yeltsin Address to Diplomats," Mezhdunarodnaya Zhizn' (International Life), June 1998, no. 6 and The Russian Weekly, no. 6 (July 24, 1998), available through 〈davidjohnson@ erols.com〉. See also Vooruzhenie, Politika, Konversiya (Armament, Politics, and Conversion) (Moscow), February 1, 1997, no. 2, in FBIS-SOV, August 23, 1998, for an interview with Ivan Rybkin, then secretary of the Security Council; "Russia's National Interests," Johnson's Russia List, August 15, 1997. available through 〈davidjohnson@erols.com〉; Paul Goble, "Can Russian Diplomacy Hold Russia Together," Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty Newsline, September 23, 1998; The Monitor, March 19 and September 23, 1998; Yevgeny Primakov, "Russia: Reforms and Foreign Policy," International Affairs (Moscow), 1998, no. 4:3-6; "Ivan Rybkin on Russia's Global Role," Johnson's Russia List, July 8, 1997, available through 〈davidjohnson@erols.com〉; Izvestiya (News) (Moscow), January 21, 1998, in FBIS-SOV, February 3, 1998; Oleg V. Davydov, "Russia's Foreign Policy in Transition: Prospects and Challenges in the Asia-Pacific Region," Asian Perspective 22, no. 1 (Spring 1998): 53-69; Mikhail A. Alekseev, "Russia's Cold Peace Consensus: Transcending the Presidential Election," Fletcher Forum of World Affairs 21, no. 1 (Winter-Spring 1997): 33-51, Ambassador Evgeny V. Afanasiev, "Asia-Pacific Region: A Russian Perspective" (Paper presented at the Annual National Defense University Asia-Pacific Symposium, Honolulu, Hawaii, March 1-2, 1999); Finnish Institute of International Affairs. Russia Beyond 2000: The Prospects for Russian Developments and Their Implications for Finland (Helsinki: 1999). 1-2.
48. "Yeltsin Address to Diplomats," Mezhdunarodnaya Zhizn' (International Life), June 1998, no. 6 and The Russian Weekly, no. 6 (July 24, 1998), available through 〈davidjohnson@ erols.com〉. See also Vooruzhenie, Politika, Konversiya (Armament, Politics, and Conversion) (Moscow), February 1, 1997, no. 2, in FBIS-SOV, August 23, 1998, for an interview with Ivan Rybkin, then secretary of the Security Council; "Russia's National Interests," Johnson's Russia List, August 15, 1997. available through 〈davidjohnson@erols.com〉; Paul Goble, "Can Russian Diplomacy Hold Russia Together," Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty Newsline, September 23, 1998; The Monitor, March 19 and September 23, 1998; Yevgeny Primakov, "Russia: Reforms and Foreign Policy," International Affairs (Moscow), 1998, no. 4:3-6; "Ivan Rybkin on Russia's Global Role," Johnson's Russia List, July 8, 1997, available through 〈davidjohnson@erols.com〉; Izvestiya (News) (Moscow), January 21, 1998, in FBIS-SOV, February 3, 1998; Oleg V. Davydov, "Russia's Foreign Policy in Transition: Prospects and Challenges in the Asia-Pacific Region," Asian Perspective 22, no. 1 (Spring 1998): 53-69; Mikhail A. Alekseev, "Russia's Cold Peace Consensus: Transcending the Presidential Election," Fletcher Forum of World Affairs 21, no. 1 (Winter-Spring 1997): 33-51, Ambassador Evgeny V. Afanasiev, "Asia-Pacific Region: A Russian Perspective" (Paper presented at the Annual National Defense University Asia-Pacific Symposium, Honolulu, Hawaii, March 1-2, 1999); Finnish Institute of International Affairs. Russia Beyond 2000: The Prospects for Russian Developments and Their Implications for Finland (Helsinki: 1999). 1-2.
49. "Yeltsin Address to Diplomats," Mezhdunarodnaya Zhizn' (International Life), June 1998, no. 6 and The Russian Weekly, no. 6 (July 24, 1998), available through 〈davidjohnson@ erols.com〉. See also Vooruzhenie, Politika, Konversiya (Armament, Politics, and Conversion) (Moscow), February 1, 1997, no. 2, in FBIS-SOV, August 23, 1998, for an interview with Ivan Rybkin, then secretary of the Security Council; "Russia's National Interests," Johnson's Russia List, August 15, 1997. available through 〈davidjohnson@erols.com〉; Paul Goble, "Can Russian Diplomacy Hold Russia Together," Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty Newsline, September 23, 1998; The Monitor, March 19 and September 23, 1998; Yevgeny Primakov, "Russia: Reforms and Foreign Policy," International Affairs (Moscow), 1998, no. 4:3-6; "Ivan Rybkin on Russia's Global Role," Johnson's Russia List, July 8, 1997, available through 〈davidjohnson@erols.com〉; Izvestiya (News) (Moscow), January 21, 1998, in FBIS-SOV, February 3, 1998; Oleg V. Davydov, "Russia's Foreign Policy in Transition: Prospects and Challenges in the Asia-Pacific Region," Asian Perspective 22, no. 1 (Spring 1998): 53-69; Mikhail A. Alekseev, "Russia's Cold Peace Consensus: Transcending the Presidential Election," Fletcher Forum of World Affairs 21, no. 1 (Winter-Spring 1997): 33-51, Ambassador Evgeny V. Afanasiev, "Asia-Pacific Region: A Russian Perspective" (Paper presented at the Annual National Defense University Asia-Pacific Symposium, Honolulu, Hawaii, March 1-2, 1999); Finnish Institute of International Affairs. Russia Beyond 2000: The Prospects for Russian Developments and Their Implications for Finland (Helsinki: 1999). 1-2.
50. "Yeltsin Address to Diplomats," Mezhdunarodnaya Zhizn' (International Life), June 1998, no. 6 and The Russian Weekly, no. 6 (July 24, 1998), available through 〈davidjohnson@ erols.com〉. See also Vooruzhenie, Politika, Konversiya (Armament, Politics, and Conversion) (Moscow), February 1, 1997, no. 2, in FBIS-SOV, August 23, 1998, for an interview with Ivan Rybkin, then secretary of the Security Council; "Russia's National Interests," Johnson's Russia List, August 15, 1997. available through 〈davidjohnson@erols.com〉; Paul Goble, "Can Russian Diplomacy Hold Russia Together," Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty Newsline, September 23, 1998; The Monitor, March 19 and September 23, 1998; Yevgeny Primakov, "Russia: Reforms and Foreign Policy," International Affairs (Moscow), 1998, no. 4:3-6; "Ivan Rybkin on Russia's Global Role," Johnson's Russia List, July 8, 1997, available through 〈davidjohnson@erols.com〉; Izvestiya (News) (Moscow), January 21, 1998, in FBIS-SOV, February 3, 1998; Oleg V. Davydov, "Russia's Foreign Policy in Transition: Prospects and Challenges in the Asia-Pacific Region," Asian Perspective 22, no. 1 (Spring 1998): 53-69; Mikhail A. Alekseev, "Russia's Cold Peace Consensus: Transcending the Presidential Election," Fletcher Forum of World Affairs 21, no. 1 (Winter-Spring 1997): 33-51, Ambassador Evgeny V. Afanasiev, "Asia-Pacific Region: A Russian Perspective" (Paper presented at the Annual National Defense University Asia-Pacific Symposium, Honolulu, Hawaii, March 1-2, 1999); Finnish Institute of International Affairs. Russia Beyond 2000: The Prospects for Russian Developments and Their Implications for Finland (Helsinki: 1999). 1-2.
51. "Yeltsin Address to Diplomats," Mezhdunarodnaya Zhizn' (International Life), June 1998, no. 6 and The Russian Weekly, no. 6 (July 24, 1998), available through 〈davidjohnson@ erols.com〉. See also Vooruzhenie, Politika, Konversiya (Armament, Politics, and Conversion) (Moscow), February 1, 1997, no. 2, in FBIS-SOV, August 23, 1998, for an interview with Ivan Rybkin, then secretary of the Security Council; "Russia's National Interests," Johnson's Russia List, August 15, 1997. available through 〈davidjohnson@erols.com〉; Paul Goble, "Can Russian Diplomacy Hold Russia Together," Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty Newsline, September 23, 1998; The Monitor, March 19 and September 23, 1998; Yevgeny Primakov, "Russia: Reforms and Foreign Policy," International Affairs (Moscow), 1998, no. 4:3-6; "Ivan Rybkin on Russia's Global Role," Johnson's Russia List, July 8, 1997, available through 〈davidjohnson@erols.com〉; Izvestiya (News) (Moscow), January 21, 1998, in FBIS-SOV, February 3, 1998; Oleg V. Davydov, "Russia's Foreign Policy in Transition: Prospects and Challenges in the Asia-Pacific Region," Asian Perspective 22, no. 1 (Spring 1998): 53-69; Mikhail A. Alekseev, "Russia's Cold Peace Consensus: Transcending the Presidential Election," Fletcher Forum of World Affairs 21, no. 1 (Winter-Spring 1997): 33-51, Ambassador Evgeny V. Afanasiev, "Asia-Pacific Region: A Russian Perspective" (Paper presented at the Annual National Defense University Asia-Pacific Symposium, Honolulu, Hawaii, March 1-2, 1999); Finnish Institute of International Affairs. Russia Beyond 2000: The Prospects for Russian Developments and Their Implications for Finland (Helsinki: 1999). 1-2.
52. "Yeltsin Address to Diplomats," Mezhdunarodnaya Zhizn' (International Life), June 1998, no. 6 and The Russian Weekly, no. 6 (July 24, 1998), available through 〈davidjohnson@ erols.com〉. See also Vooruzhenie, Politika, Konversiya (Armament, Politics, and Conversion) (Moscow), February 1, 1997, no. 2, in FBIS-SOV, August 23, 1998, for an interview with Ivan Rybkin, then secretary of the Security Council; "Russia's National Interests," Johnson's Russia List, August 15, 1997. available through 〈davidjohnson@erols.com〉; Paul Goble, "Can Russian Diplomacy Hold Russia Together," Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty Newsline, September 23, 1998; The Monitor, March 19 and September 23, 1998; Yevgeny Primakov, "Russia: Reforms and Foreign Policy," International Affairs (Moscow), 1998, no. 4:3-6; "Ivan Rybkin on Russia's Global Role," Johnson's Russia List, July 8, 1997, available through 〈davidjohnson@erols.com〉; Izvestiya (News) (Moscow), January 21, 1998, in FBIS-SOV, February 3, 1998; Oleg V. Davydov, "Russia's Foreign Policy in Transition: Prospects and Challenges in the Asia-Pacific Region," Asian Perspective 22, no. 1 (Spring 1998): 53-69; Mikhail A. Alekseev, "Russia's Cold Peace Consensus: Transcending the Presidential Election," Fletcher Forum of World Affairs 21, no. 1 (Winter-Spring 1997): 33-51, Ambassador Evgeny V. Afanasiev, "Asia-Pacific Region: A Russian Perspective" (Paper presented at the Annual National Defense University Asia-Pacific Symposium, Honolulu, Hawaii, March 1-2, 1999); Finnish Institute of International Affairs. Russia Beyond 2000: The Prospects for Russian Developments and Their Implications for Finland (Helsinki: 1999). 1-2.
53. "Yeltsin Address to Diplomats," Mezhdunarodnaya Zhizn' (International Life), June 1998, no. 6 and The Russian Weekly, no. 6 (July 24, 1998), available through 〈davidjohnson@ erols.com〉. See also Vooruzhenie, Politika, Konversiya (Armament, Politics, and Conversion) (Moscow), February 1, 1997, no. 2, in FBIS-SOV, August 23, 1998, for an interview with Ivan Rybkin, then secretary of the Security Council; "Russia's National Interests," Johnson's Russia List, August 15, 1997. available through 〈davidjohnson@erols.com〉; Paul Goble, "Can Russian Diplomacy Hold Russia Together," Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty Newsline, September 23, 1998; The Monitor, March 19 and September 23, 1998; Yevgeny Primakov, "Russia: Reforms and Foreign Policy," International Affairs (Moscow), 1998, no. 4:3-6; "Ivan Rybkin on Russia's Global Role," Johnson's Russia List, July 8, 1997, available through 〈davidjohnson@erols.com〉; Izvestiya (News) (Moscow), January 21, 1998, in FBIS-SOV, February 3, 1998; Oleg V. Davydov, "Russia's Foreign Policy in Transition: Prospects and Challenges in the Asia-Pacific Region," Asian Perspective 22, no. 1 (Spring 1998): 53-69; Mikhail A. Alekseev, "Russia's Cold Peace Consensus: Transcending the Presidential Election," Fletcher Forum of World Affairs 21, no. 1 (Winter-Spring 1997): 33-51, Ambassador Evgeny V. Afanasiev, "Asia-Pacific Region: A Russian Perspective" (Paper presented at the Annual National Defense University Asia-Pacific Symposium, Honolulu, Hawaii, March 1-2, 1999); Finnish Institute of International Affairs. Russia Beyond 2000: The Prospects for Russian Developments and Their Implications for Finland (Helsinki: 1999). 1-2.
54. "Yeltsin Address to Diplomats," Mezhdunarodnaya Zhizn' (International Life), June 1998, no. 6 and The Russian Weekly, no. 6 (July 24, 1998), available through 〈davidjohnson@ erols.com〉. See also Vooruzhenie, Politika, Konversiya (Armament, Politics, and Conversion) (Moscow), February 1, 1997, no. 2, in FBIS-SOV, August 23, 1998, for an interview with Ivan Rybkin, then secretary of the Security Council; "Russia's National Interests," Johnson's Russia List, August 15, 1997. available through 〈davidjohnson@erols.com〉; Paul Goble, "Can Russian Diplomacy Hold Russia Together," Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty Newsline, September 23, 1998; The Monitor, March 19 and September 23, 1998; Yevgeny Primakov, "Russia: Reforms and Foreign Policy," International Affairs (Moscow), 1998, no. 4:3-6; "Ivan Rybkin on Russia's Global Role," Johnson's Russia List, July 8, 1997, available through 〈davidjohnson@erols.com〉; Izvestiya (News) (Moscow), January 21, 1998, in FBIS-SOV, February 3, 1998; Oleg V. Davydov, "Russia's Foreign Policy in Transition: Prospects and Challenges in the Asia-Pacific Region," Asian Perspective 22, no. 1 (Spring 1998): 53-69; Mikhail A. Alekseev, "Russia's Cold Peace Consensus: Transcending the Presidential Election," Fletcher Forum of World Affairs 21, no. 1 (Winter-Spring 1997): 33-51, Ambassador Evgeny V. Afanasiev, "Asia-Pacific Region: A Russian Perspective" (Paper presented at the Annual National Defense University Asia-Pacific Symposium, Honolulu, Hawaii, March 1-2, 1999); Finnish Institute of International Affairs. Russia Beyond 2000: The Prospects for Russian Developments and Their Implications for Finland (Helsinki: 1999). 1-2.
55. "Yeltsin Address to Diplomats," Mezhdunarodnaya Zhizn' (International Life), June 1998, no. 6 and The Russian Weekly, no. 6 (July 24, 1998), available through 〈davidjohnson@ erols.com〉. See also Vooruzhenie, Politika, Konversiya (Armament, Politics, and Conversion) (Moscow), February 1, 1997, no. 2, in FBIS-SOV, August 23, 1998, for an interview with Ivan Rybkin, then secretary of the Security Council; "Russia's National Interests," Johnson's Russia List, August 15, 1997. available through 〈davidjohnson@erols.com〉; Paul Goble, "Can Russian Diplomacy Hold Russia Together," Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty Newsline, September 23, 1998; The Monitor, March 19 and September 23, 1998; Yevgeny Primakov, "Russia: Reforms and Foreign Policy," International Affairs (Moscow), 1998, no. 4:3-6; "Ivan Rybkin on Russia's Global Role," Johnson's Russia List, July 8, 1997, available through 〈davidjohnson@erols.com〉; Izvestiya (News) (Moscow), January 21, 1998, in FBIS-SOV, February 3, 1998; Oleg V. Davydov, "Russia's Foreign Policy in Transition: Prospects and Challenges in the Asia-Pacific Region," Asian Perspective 22, no. 1 (Spring 1998): 53-69; Mikhail A. Alekseev, "Russia's Cold Peace Consensus: Transcending the Presidential Election," Fletcher Forum of World Affairs 21, no. 1 (Winter-Spring 1997): 33-51, Ambassador Evgeny V. Afanasiev, "Asia-Pacific Region: A Russian Perspective" (Paper presented at the Annual National Defense University Asia-Pacific Symposium, Honolulu, Hawaii, March 1-2, 1999); Finnish Institute of International Affairs. Russia Beyond 2000: The Prospects for Russian Developments and Their Implications for Finland (Helsinki: 1999). 1-2.
56. "Yeltsin Address to Diplomats," Mezhdunarodnaya Zhizn' (International Life), June 1998, no. 6 and The Russian Weekly, no. 6 (July 24, 1998), available through 〈davidjohnson@ erols.com〉. See also Vooruzhenie, Politika, Konversiya (Armament, Politics, and Conversion) (Moscow), February 1, 1997, no. 2, in FBIS-SOV, August 23, 1998, for an interview with Ivan Rybkin, then secretary of the Security Council; "Russia's National Interests," Johnson's Russia List, August 15, 1997. available through 〈davidjohnson@erols.com〉; Paul Goble, "Can Russian Diplomacy Hold Russia Together," Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty Newsline, September 23, 1998; The Monitor, March 19 and September 23, 1998; Yevgeny Primakov, "Russia: Reforms and Foreign Policy," International Affairs (Moscow), 1998, no. 4:3-6; "Ivan Rybkin on Russia's Global Role," Johnson's Russia List, July 8, 1997, available through 〈davidjohnson@erols.com〉; Izvestiya (News) (Moscow), January 21, 1998, in FBIS-SOV, February 3, 1998; Oleg V. Davydov, "Russia's Foreign Policy in Transition: Prospects and Challenges in the Asia-Pacific Region," Asian Perspective 22, no. 1 (Spring 1998): 53-69; Mikhail A. Alekseev, "Russia's Cold Peace Consensus: Transcending the Presidential Election," Fletcher Forum of World Affairs 21, no. 1 (Winter-Spring 1997): 33-51, Ambassador Evgeny V. Afanasiev, "Asia-Pacific Region: A Russian Perspective" (Paper presented at the Annual National Defense University Asia-Pacific Symposium, Honolulu, Hawaii, March 1-2, 1999); Finnish Institute of International Affairs. Russia Beyond 2000: The Prospects for Russian Developments and Their Implications for Finland (Helsinki: 1999). 1-2.
57. "Yeltsin Address to Diplomats," Mezhdunarodnaya Zhizn' (International Life), June 1998, no. 6 and The Russian Weekly, no. 6 (July 24, 1998), available through 〈davidjohnson@ erols.com〉. See also Vooruzhenie, Politika, Konversiya (Armament, Politics, and Conversion) (Moscow), February 1, 1997, no. 2, in FBIS-SOV, August 23, 1998, for an interview with Ivan Rybkin, then secretary of the Security Council; "Russia's National Interests," Johnson's Russia List, August 15, 1997. available through 〈davidjohnson@erols.com〉; Paul Goble, "Can Russian Diplomacy Hold Russia Together," Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty Newsline, September 23, 1998; The Monitor, March 19 and September 23, 1998; Yevgeny Primakov, "Russia: Reforms and Foreign Policy," International Affairs (Moscow), 1998, no. 4:3-6; "Ivan Rybkin on Russia's Global Role," Johnson's Russia List, July 8, 1997, available through 〈davidjohnson@erols.com〉; Izvestiya (News) (Moscow), January 21, 1998, in FBIS-SOV, February 3, 1998; Oleg V. Davydov, "Russia's Foreign Policy in Transition: Prospects and Challenges in the Asia-Pacific Region," Asian Perspective 22, no. 1 (Spring 1998): 53-69; Mikhail A. Alekseev, "Russia's Cold Peace Consensus: Transcending the Presidential Election," Fletcher Forum of World Affairs 21, no. 1 (Winter-Spring 1997): 33-51, Ambassador Evgeny V. Afanasiev, "Asia-Pacific Region: A Russian Perspective" (Paper presented at the Annual National Defense University Asia-Pacific Symposium, Honolulu, Hawaii, March 1-2, 1999); Finnish Institute of International Affairs. Russia Beyond 2000: The Prospects for Russian Developments and Their Implications for Finland (Helsinki: 1999). 1-2.
58. Ibid. See also Sergei M. Rogov, "Russia and NATO's Enlargement: The Search for a Compromise at the Helsinki Summit" (Center for Naval Analyses, Alexandria, Va.), CIM 513/ May 1997, 10.
59. E-mail letter from Darrell Hammer, Johnson's Russia List, February 5, 1997; Dmitry Trenin, "Transformation of Russian Foreign Policy: NATO Expansion Can Have Negative Consequences for the West," Nezavisimaya Gazeta (Independent News) (Moscow), February 5, 1997, e-mail transmission; J. Michael Waller, "Primakov's Imperial Line," Perspective 7, no. 3 (January-February 1997): 2-6; "Primakov, Setting a New, Tougher Foreign Policy," Current Digest of the Post-Soviet Press [hereafter CDPP] 49, no. 2 (February 12, 1997): 4-7.
60. E-mail letter from Darrell Hammer, Johnson's Russia List, February 5, 1997; Dmitry Trenin, "Transformation of Russian Foreign Policy: NATO Expansion Can Have Negative Consequences for the West," Nezavisimaya Gazeta (Independent News) (Moscow), February 5, 1997, e-mail transmission; J. Michael Waller, "Primakov's Imperial Line," Perspective 7, no. 3 (January-February 1997): 2-6; "Primakov, Setting a New, Tougher Foreign Policy," Current Digest of the Post-Soviet Press [hereafter CDPP] 49, no. 2 (February 12, 1997): 4-7.
61. E-mail letter from Darrell Hammer, Johnson's Russia List, February 5, 1997; Dmitry Trenin, "Transformation of Russian Foreign Policy: NATO Expansion Can Have Negative Consequences for the West," Nezavisimaya Gazeta (Independent News) (Moscow), February 5, 1997, e-mail transmission; J. Michael Waller, "Primakov's Imperial Line," Perspective 7, no. 3 (January-February 1997): 2-6; "Primakov, Setting a New, Tougher Foreign Policy," Current Digest of the Post-Soviet Press [hereafter CDPP] 49, no. 2 (February 12, 1997): 4-7.
62. E-mail letter from Darrell Hammer, Johnson's Russia List, February 5, 1997; Dmitry Trenin, "Transformation of Russian Foreign Policy: NATO Expansion Can Have Negative Consequences for the West," Nezavisimaya Gazeta (Independent News) (Moscow), February 5, 1997, e-mail transmission; J. Michael Waller, "Primakov's Imperial Line," Perspective 7, no. 3 (January-February 1997): 2-6; "Primakov, Setting a New, Tougher Foreign Policy," Current Digest of the Post-Soviet Press [hereafter CDPP] 49, no. 2 (February 12, 1997): 4-7.
63. Rogov, "Russia and NATO's Enlargement," 10.
64. See note 15 above.
65. ITAR-TASS, Moscow, in Russian, October 7, 1999, in FBIS-SOV, October 7, 1999; Nezavisimaya Gazeta, in FBIS-SOV-98-077 (March 18, 1998).
66. Nezavisimaya Gazeta (Electronic version), July 22, 1998, in FBIS-SOV-98-222 (August 13, 1998); Izvestiya, December 24, 1996, in FBIS-SOV-96-248 (December 26, 1996).
67. Nezavisimaya Gazeta (Electronic version), July 22, 1998, in FBIS-SOV-98-222 (August 13, 1998); Izvestiya, December 24, 1996, in FBIS-SOV-96-248 (December 26, 1996).
68. Nation, Beyond the Cold War, 18.
69. See Sergei Rogov et al., Security Concerns of the New Russia, volume 2 (Alexandria, Va.: Center for Naval Analysis. 1995), 34, where this demand is made explicitly: Lena Jonson, "In Search of a Doctrine: Russian Interventionist!! in Conflicts in Its 'Near Abroad'," Low Intensity Conflict and Law Enforcement 5, no. 3 (Winter 1996): 447.
70. See Sergei Rogov et al., Security Concerns of the New Russia, volume 2 (Alexandria, Va.: Center for Naval Analysis. 1995), 34, where this demand is made explicitly: Lena Jonson, "In Search of a Doctrine: Russian Interventionist!! in Conflicts in Its 'Near Abroad'," Low Intensity Conflict and Law Enforcement 5, no. 3 (Winter 1996): 447.
71. See note 29 above.
72. Xinhua Domestic Service, Beijing in Chinese, August 25, 1999, in FBIS-CHI, August 26, 1999.
73. President William J. Clinton, "A National Security Strategy for a New Century" (Washington, D.C.: The White House, 1997), 18; President William J. Clinton, "A National Security Strategy for the Next Century" (Washington, D.C.: The White House, 1998), 32-33.
74. President William J. Clinton, "A National Security Strategy for a New Century" (Washington, D.C.: The White House, 1997), 18; President William J. Clinton, "A National Security Strategy for the Next Century" (Washington, D.C.: The White House, 1998), 32-33.
75. FBIS-CHI, August 26, 1999.
76. Stephen J. Blank, "Central Asia and South Asia in a New World Order," Asian Defence Journal, July 1995, 28-31.
77. See C. Raja Mohan, "Fostering Strategic Stability and Promoting Regional Cooperation," in Engaging India: U.S. Strategic Relations with the World's Largest Democracy, ed. Gary K. Bertsch, Seema Gahlaut, and Anupam Srivastava (New York: Routledge, 1999), 25-26; Kanti Bajpai, "India-U.S. Foreign Policy Concerns: Cooperation and Conflict," ibid., 197-98; Igor Khripunov and Anupam Srivastava, "Contending with the 'Bear-ish' Arms Market: U.S.-India Strategic Cooperation and Russia," ibid., 245-46.
78. See C. Raja Mohan, "Fostering Strategic Stability and Promoting Regional Cooperation," in Engaging India: U.S. Strategic Relations with the World's Largest Democracy, ed. Gary K. Bertsch, Seema Gahlaut, and Anupam Srivastava (New York: Routledge, 1999), 25-26; Kanti Bajpai, "India-U.S. Foreign Policy Concerns: Cooperation and Conflict," ibid., 197-98; Igor Khripunov and Anupam Srivastava, "Contending with the 'Bear-ish' Arms Market: U.S.-India Strategic Cooperation and Russia," ibid., 245-46.
79. See C. Raja Mohan, "Fostering Strategic Stability and Promoting Regional Cooperation," in Engaging India: U.S. Strategic Relations with the World's Largest Democracy, ed. Gary K. Bertsch, Seema Gahlaut, and Anupam Srivastava (New York: Routledge, 1999), 25-26; Kanti Bajpai, "India-U.S. Foreign Policy Concerns: Cooperation and Conflict," ibid., 197-98; Igor Khripunov and Anupam Srivastava, "Contending with the 'Bear-ish' Arms Market: U.S.-India Strategic Cooperation and Russia," ibid., 245-46.
80. Mohan, "Fostering Strategic Stability," 38.
81. Jennifer Anderson, "The Limits of Sino-Russian Strategic Partnership," Adelphi Papers, no. 315 (London: 1998).
82. Lowell Dittmer, Sino-Soviet Normalization and Its International Implications 1945-1990 (Seattle: University of Washington Press, 1992).
83. Nezavisimaya Gazeta, July 16, 1998, in FBIS-SOV-98-197 (July 17, 1998).
84. FBIS-CHI, July 16, 1999.
85. Conversations with Russian General Staff officers and analysts, Moscow and Helsinki, June 1999.
86. ITAR-TASS in English, September 16, 1999, in FBIS-SOV, September 17, 1999; Nezavisimoye Voyennoe Obozreniye (Independent Military Review) (Moscow), November 6-12, 1998, in FBIS-SOV, November 9, 1998.
87. "FBIS Trends: PRC Media on Yeltsin Visit," FBIS-SOV, December 23, 1999.
88. Personal communication with Dr. Sherman Garnett of the Michigan State University and RIA (Moscow), in English, September 28, 1999, in FBIS-SOV, September 28, 1999.
89. Yazhou zhoukan (Asia Weekly) (Hong Kong), August 22, 1999, in FBIS-CHI, August 25, 1999; Col. Larry M. Wortzel, China's Military Potential (Carlisle Barracks, Penn.: Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, 1998), 17; Interfax (Moscow), August 6, 1999, in FBIS-SOV, August 6, 1999.
90. Yazhou zhoukan (Asia Weekly) (Hong Kong), August 22, 1999, in FBIS-CHI, August 25, 1999; Col. Larry M. Wortzel, China's Military Potential (Carlisle Barracks, Penn.: Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, 1998), 17; Interfax (Moscow), August 6, 1999, in FBIS-SOV, August 6, 1999.
91. Yazhou zhoukan (Asia Weekly) (Hong Kong), August 22, 1999, in FBIS-CHI, August 25, 1999; Col. Larry M. Wortzel, China's Military Potential (Carlisle Barracks, Penn.: Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, 1998), 17; Interfax (Moscow), August 6, 1999, in FBIS-SOV, August 6, 1999.
92. Foreign Report (Internet version) (London), July 6, 1999, in FBIS-SOV, July 8, 1999.
93. FBIS-CHI, August 25, 1999.
94. Based on conversations with Pentagon analysts in Washington, D.C., March 1999.
95. "Revealed: Russian Ship-Killer Poised for Export," Jane's Defence Weekly, August 6, 1997, 10; Grinter, The Dragon Awakes; Stokes, China's Strategic Modernization; Lilley and Shambaugh, China's Military Faces the Future.
96. "Revealed: Russian Ship-Killer Poised for Export," Jane's Defence Weekly, August 6, 1997, 10; Grinter, The Dragon Awakes; Stokes, China's Strategic Modernization; Lilley and Shambaugh, China's Military Faces the Future.
97. "Revealed: Russian Ship-Killer Poised for Export," Jane's Defence Weekly, August 6, 1997, 10; Grinter, The Dragon Awakes; Stokes, China's Strategic Modernization; Lilley and Shambaugh, China's Military Faces the Future.
98. Willy Wo-Lap Lam, "The Bear-Hug Alliance," South China Morning Post (Hong Kong), September 1, 1999, 15.
99. Xinhua, Beijing in English, September 12, 1999, in FBIS-CHI, September 12, 1999; Izvestiya, June 9, 1999, in FBIS-SOV, June 9, 1999; RIA, August 25, 1999, in FBIS-SOV, August 25, 1999; FBIS-SOV, September 28, 1999.
100. Xinhua, Beijing in English, September 12, 1999, in FBIS-CHI, September 12, 1999; Izvestiya, June 9, 1999, in FBIS-SOV, June 9, 1999; RIA, August 25, 1999, in FBIS-SOV, August 25, 1999; FBIS-SOV, September 28, 1999.
101. Xinhua, Beijing in English, September 12, 1999, in FBIS-CHI, September 12, 1999; Izvestiya, June 9, 1999, in FBIS-SOV, June 9, 1999; RIA, August 25, 1999, in FBIS-SOV, August 25, 1999; FBIS-SOV, September 28, 1999.
102. For a Chinese admission of this fact, see Ching Pao (The Mirror), July 1, 1999, in FBIS-CHI, July 9, 1999.
103. Ibid.
104. Ibid.; ITAR-TASS World Service, Moscow in Russian, October 27, 1998; Interfax, Moscow in Russian, July 20, 1999, in FBIS-SOV, July 20, 1999.
105. John Pomfret, "Russia and China, Allies Once Again?" Washington Post (National Weekly Edition), November 30, 1998, 16.
106. FBIS-SOV, October 27, 1998; Ching Pao, July 1, 1999, in FBIS-CHI, July 12, 1999, cited in Kenneth W. Allen and Eric A. McVadon, China's Foreign Military Relations (Washington, D.C.: The Henry L. Stimson Center, 1999), 59-63.
107. FBIS-SOV, October 27, 1998; Ching Pao, July 1, 1999, in FBIS-CHI, July 12, 1999, cited in Kenneth W. Allen and Eric A. McVadon, China's Foreign Military Relations (Washington, D.C.: The Henry L. Stimson Center, 1999), 59-63.
108. FBIS-SOV, October 27, 1998; Ching Pao, July 1, 1999, in FBIS-CHI, July 12, 1999, cited in Kenneth W. Allen and Eric A. McVadon, China's Foreign Military Relations (Washington, D.C.: The Henry L. Stimson Center, 1999), 59-63.
109. See note 67 above.
110. Stephen J. Blank, The Dynamics of Russian Weapon Sales to China (Carlisle Barracks, Penn.: Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, 1997), 18-19; "Far East: China," CDPP 48, no. 30 (August 21, 1996): 20-22; Michael Hirsh, "The Great Technology Giveaway?" Foreign Affairs 77, no. 5 (September/October 1998): 2-9, noting that the United States has a similar rationale for its sales of sophisticated weapons abroad.
111. Stephen J. Blank, The Dynamics of Russian Weapon Sales to China (Carlisle Barracks, Penn.: Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, 1997), 18-19; "Far East: China," CDPP 48, no. 30 (August 21, 1996): 20-22; Michael Hirsh, "The Great Technology Giveaway?" Foreign Affairs 77, no. 5 (September/October 1998): 2-9, noting that the United States has a similar rationale for its sales of sophisticated weapons abroad.
112. Stephen J. Blank, The Dynamics of Russian Weapon Sales to China (Carlisle Barracks, Penn.: Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, 1997), 18-19; "Far East: China," CDPP 48, no. 30 (August 21, 1996): 20-22; Michael Hirsh, "The Great Technology Giveaway?" Foreign Affairs 77, no. 5 (September/October 1998): 2-9, noting that the United States has a similar rationale for its sales of sophisticated weapons abroad.
113. See note 67 above.
114. Blank, "Russian Arms Sales to China: Issues and Outcomes" (Paper presented at the CAPP-RAND Conference on China's Foreign Arms Suppliers, Oxford, England, June 26-29, 1997); "Top Secret Arms and Nuclear Deals," Asia Times, June 30, 1997, from Johnson's Russia List, available through 〈djohnson@erols.com〉, July 1, 1997; Bill Gertz, "Russia Sells China High-Tech Artillery," Washington Times, July 3, 1997, 1.
115. Blank, "Russian Arms Sales to China: Issues and Outcomes" (Paper presented at the CAPP-RAND Conference on China's Foreign Arms Suppliers, Oxford, England, June 26-29, 1997); "Top Secret Arms and Nuclear Deals," Asia Times, June 30, 1997, from Johnson's Russia List, available through 〈djohnson@erols.com〉, July 1, 1997; Bill Gertz, "Russia Sells China High-Tech Artillery," Washington Times, July 3, 1997, 1.
116. Blank, "Russian Arms Sales to China: Issues and Outcomes" (Paper presented at the CAPP-RAND Conference on China's Foreign Arms Suppliers, Oxford, England, June 26-29, 1997); "Top Secret Arms and Nuclear Deals," Asia Times, June 30, 1997, from Johnson's Russia List, available through 〈djohnson@erols.com〉, July 1, 1997; Bill Gertz, "Russia Sells China High-Tech Artillery," Washington Times, July 3, 1997, 1.
117. Strategic Survey, 1996-97 (London: International Institute for Strategic Studies, 1997), 170; Richard D. Fisher Jr., "Foreign Arms Acquisition and PLA Modernization" (Unpublished paper, November 1997), 4-5; Richard D. Fisher Jr., "Appendix: Gallery of Known and Possible Future Foreign Acquisitions by China," in Lilley and Shambaugh, China's Military Faces the Future, 127-91; personal communication with Peter Pry of the House National Security Committee staff, March 1998; Jianchuan zhishi (Ship Knowledge) (Beijing), 1997, no. 10, in FBIS-CHI-98-065 (March 9, 1998); Bruce G. Blair, Global Zero Alert for Nuclear Forces, PRAC Paper, no. 13 (Project on Rethinking Arms Control, Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland School of Public Affairs, University of Maryland at College Park, December 1994), 7; Henry Sokolski, "Space Technology Transfers and Missile Proliferation" (Report of the Commission to Assess the Ballistic Missile Threat to the United States, July 15, 1998, Pursuant to Public Law 201, 104th Congress, Appendix III, Unclassified Working Papers), 303-15; Richard H. Speier, "Testimony Before the Subcommittee on International Security Proliferation and Federal Services, Committee on Governmental Affairs, U.S. Senate" (June 5, 1997).
118. Strategic Survey, 1996-97 (London: International Institute for Strategic Studies, 1997), 170; Richard D. Fisher Jr., "Foreign Arms Acquisition and PLA Modernization" (Unpublished paper, November 1997), 4-5; Richard D. Fisher Jr., "Appendix: Gallery of Known and Possible Future Foreign Acquisitions by China," in Lilley and Shambaugh, China's Military Faces the Future, 127-91; personal communication with Peter Pry of the House National Security Committee staff, March 1998; Jianchuan zhishi (Ship Knowledge) (Beijing), 1997, no. 10, in FBIS-CHI-98-065 (March 9, 1998); Bruce G. Blair, Global Zero Alert for Nuclear Forces, PRAC Paper, no. 13 (Project on Rethinking Arms Control, Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland School of Public Affairs, University of Maryland at College Park, December 1994), 7; Henry Sokolski, "Space Technology Transfers and Missile Proliferation" (Report of the Commission to Assess the Ballistic Missile Threat to the United States, July 15, 1998, Pursuant to Public Law 201, 104th Congress, Appendix III, Unclassified Working Papers), 303-15; Richard H. Speier, "Testimony Before the Subcommittee on International Security Proliferation and Federal Services, Committee on Governmental Affairs, U.S. Senate" (June 5, 1997).
119. Strategic Survey, 1996-97 (London: International Institute for Strategic Studies, 1997), 170; Richard D. Fisher Jr., "Foreign Arms Acquisition and PLA Modernization" (Unpublished paper, November 1997), 4-5; Richard D. Fisher Jr., "Appendix: Gallery of Known and Possible Future Foreign Acquisitions by China," in Lilley and Shambaugh, China's Military Faces the Future, 127-91; personal communication with Peter Pry of the House National Security Committee staff, March 1998; Jianchuan zhishi (Ship Knowledge) (Beijing), 1997, no. 10, in FBIS-CHI-98-065 (March 9, 1998); Bruce G. Blair, Global Zero Alert for Nuclear Forces, PRAC Paper, no. 13 (Project on Rethinking Arms Control, Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland School of Public Affairs, University of Maryland at College Park, December 1994), 7; Henry Sokolski, "Space Technology Transfers and Missile Proliferation" (Report of the Commission to Assess the Ballistic Missile Threat to the United States, July 15, 1998, Pursuant to Public Law 201, 104th Congress, Appendix III, Unclassified Working Papers), 303-15; Richard H. Speier, "Testimony Before the Subcommittee on International Security Proliferation and Federal Services, Committee on Governmental Affairs, U.S. Senate" (June 5, 1997).
120. Strategic Survey, 1996-97 (London: International Institute for Strategic Studies, 1997), 170; Richard D. Fisher Jr., "Foreign Arms Acquisition and PLA Modernization" (Unpublished paper, November 1997), 4-5; Richard D. Fisher Jr., "Appendix: Gallery of Known and Possible Future Foreign Acquisitions by China," in Lilley and Shambaugh, China's Military Faces the Future, 127-91; personal communication with Peter Pry of the House National Security Committee staff, March 1998; Jianchuan zhishi (Ship Knowledge) (Beijing), 1997, no. 10, in FBIS-CHI-98-065 (March 9, 1998); Bruce G. Blair, Global Zero Alert for Nuclear Forces, PRAC Paper, no. 13 (Project on Rethinking Arms Control, Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland School of Public Affairs, University of Maryland at College Park, December 1994), 7; Henry Sokolski, "Space Technology Transfers and Missile Proliferation" (Report of the Commission to Assess the Ballistic Missile Threat to the United States, July 15, 1998, Pursuant to Public Law 201, 104th Congress, Appendix III, Unclassified Working Papers), 303-15; Richard H. Speier, "Testimony Before the Subcommittee on International Security Proliferation and Federal Services, Committee on Governmental Affairs, U.S. Senate" (June 5, 1997).
121. Strategic Survey, 1996-97 (London: International Institute for Strategic Studies, 1997), 170; Richard D. Fisher Jr., "Foreign Arms Acquisition and PLA Modernization" (Unpublished paper, November 1997), 4-5; Richard D. Fisher Jr., "Appendix: Gallery of Known and Possible Future Foreign Acquisitions by China," in Lilley and Shambaugh, China's Military Faces the Future, 127-91; personal communication with Peter Pry of the House National Security Committee staff, March 1998; Jianchuan zhishi (Ship Knowledge) (Beijing), 1997, no. 10, in FBIS-CHI-98-065 (March 9, 1998); Bruce G. Blair, Global Zero Alert for Nuclear Forces, PRAC Paper, no. 13 (Project on Rethinking Arms Control, Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland School of Public Affairs, University of Maryland at College Park, December 1994), 7; Henry Sokolski, "Space Technology Transfers and Missile Proliferation" (Report of the Commission to Assess the Ballistic Missile Threat to the United States, July 15, 1998, Pursuant to Public Law 201, 104th Congress, Appendix III, Unclassified Working Papers), 303-15; Richard H. Speier, "Testimony Before the Subcommittee on International Security Proliferation and Federal Services, Committee on Governmental Affairs, U.S. Senate" (June 5, 1997).
122. Strategic Survey, 1996-97 (London: International Institute for Strategic Studies, 1997), 170; Richard D. Fisher Jr., "Foreign Arms Acquisition and PLA Modernization" (Unpublished paper, November 1997), 4-5; Richard D. Fisher Jr., "Appendix: Gallery of Known and Possible Future Foreign Acquisitions by China," in Lilley and Shambaugh, China's Military Faces the Future, 127-91; personal communication with Peter Pry of the House National Security Committee staff, March 1998; Jianchuan zhishi (Ship Knowledge) (Beijing), 1997, no. 10, in FBIS-CHI-98-065 (March 9, 1998); Bruce G. Blair, Global Zero Alert for Nuclear Forces, PRAC Paper, no. 13 (Project on Rethinking Arms Control, Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland School of Public Affairs, University of Maryland at College Park, December 1994), 7; Henry Sokolski, "Space Technology Transfers and Missile Proliferation" (Report of the Commission to Assess the Ballistic Missile Threat to the United States, July 15, 1998, Pursuant to Public Law 201, 104th Congress, Appendix III, Unclassified Working Papers), 303-15; Richard H. Speier, "Testimony Before the Subcommittee on International Security Proliferation and Federal Services, Committee on Governmental Affairs, U.S. Senate" (June 5, 1997).
123. Strategic Survey, 1996-97 (London: International Institute for Strategic Studies, 1997), 170; Richard D. Fisher Jr., "Foreign Arms Acquisition and PLA Modernization" (Unpublished paper, November 1997), 4-5; Richard D. Fisher Jr., "Appendix: Gallery of Known and Possible Future Foreign Acquisitions by China," in Lilley and Shambaugh, China's Military Faces the Future, 127-91; personal communication with Peter Pry of the House National Security Committee staff, March 1998; Jianchuan zhishi (Ship Knowledge) (Beijing), 1997, no. 10, in FBIS-CHI-98-065 (March 9, 1998); Bruce G. Blair, Global Zero Alert for Nuclear Forces, PRAC Paper, no. 13 (Project on Rethinking Arms Control, Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland School of Public Affairs, University of Maryland at College Park, December 1994), 7; Henry Sokolski, "Space Technology Transfers and Missile Proliferation" (Report of the Commission to Assess the Ballistic Missile Threat to the United States, July 15, 1998, Pursuant to Public Law 201, 104th Congress, Appendix III, Unclassified Working Papers), 303-15; Richard H. Speier, "Testimony Before the Subcommittee on International Security Proliferation and Federal Services, Committee on Governmental Affairs, U.S. Senate" (June 5, 1997).
124. Eric Arnett, "Conventional Arms Transfers," in SIPRI Yearbook 1998 (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1998), 221-22.
125. Nikolai Novichkov, "Russia and China Tighten Links on Military Projects," Jane's Defence Weekly, August 19, 1998, 3.
126. FBIS-TAC-97-295 (October 23, 1997); RIA, November 26, 1998, in FBIS-SOV, November 29, 1998.
127. FBIS-TAC-97-295 (October 23, 1997); RIA, November 26, 1998, in FBIS-SOV, November 29, 1998.
128. ITAR-TASS World Service, Moscow in Russian, October 27, 1998, in FBIS-SOV, October 27, 1998.
129. Stokes, China's Strategic Modernization, 89-123; You Ji, The Armed Forces of China (London: I.B. Tauris, 1999), 92-98; Kathryn L. Gauthier, "China as Peer Competitor? Trends in Nuclear Weapons, Space, and Information Warfare," in Grinter, The Dragon Awakes, 25-34.
130. Stokes, China's Strategic Modernization, 89-123; You Ji, The Armed Forces of China (London: I.B. Tauris, 1999), 92-98; Kathryn L. Gauthier, "China as Peer Competitor? Trends in Nuclear Weapons, Space, and Information Warfare," in Grinter, The Dragon Awakes, 25-34.
131. Stokes, China's Strategic Modernization, 89-123; You Ji, The Armed Forces of China (London: I.B. Tauris, 1999), 92-98; Kathryn L. Gauthier, "China as Peer Competitor? Trends in Nuclear Weapons, Space, and Information Warfare," in Grinter, The Dragon Awakes, 25-34.
132. Ibid. See also note 73 above and Yaderny Kontrol (Nuclear Control) (Moscow) 40, no. 4 (July-August 1998): 82-86, in FBIS-SOV, November 19, 1998; James C. Mulvenon and Richard H. Yang, eds., The People's Liberation Army in the Information Age: Conference Proceedings (Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, 1999), 132-34; Zalmay M. Khalizad et al., The United States and a Rising China (Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, 1999), 48-59.
133. Ibid. See also note 73 above and Yaderny Kontrol (Nuclear Control) (Moscow) 40, no. 4 (July-August 1998): 82-86, in FBIS-SOV, November 19, 1998; James C. Mulvenon and Richard H. Yang, eds., The People's Liberation Army in the Information Age: Conference Proceedings (Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, 1999), 132-34; Zalmay M. Khalizad et al., The United States and a Rising China (Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, 1999), 48-59.
134. Ibid. See also note 73 above and Yaderny Kontrol (Nuclear Control) (Moscow) 40, no. 4 (July-August 1998): 82-86, in FBIS-SOV, November 19, 1998; James C. Mulvenon and Richard H. Yang, eds., The People's Liberation Army in the Information Age: Conference Proceedings (Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, 1999), 132-34; Zalmay M. Khalizad et al., The United States and a Rising China (Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, 1999), 48-59.
135. Yaderny Kontrol 40, no. 4 (July-August 1998): 82-86, in FBIS-SOV, November 19, 1998.
136. Interfax, Moscow in English, June 9, 1999, in FBIS-SOV, June 9, 1999.
137. Stokes, China's Strategic Modernization, 96-97; Alastair Iain Johnston, "China's New 'Old Thinking': The Concept of Limited Deterrence," International Security 21, no. 1 (Winter 1995-96): 5-42; Larry M. Wortzel, "Ballistic Missiles and Weapons of Mass Destruction: The View from Beijing," in Proceedings from the Conference on Countering the Missile Threat, International Military Strategies (Washington, D.C.: Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs, 1999), 190-203.
138. Stokes, China's Strategic Modernization, 96-97; Alastair Iain Johnston, "China's New 'Old Thinking': The Concept of Limited Deterrence," International Security 21, no. 1 (Winter 1995-96): 5-42; Larry M. Wortzel, "Ballistic Missiles and Weapons of Mass Destruction: The View from Beijing," in Proceedings from the Conference on Countering the Missile Threat, International Military Strategies (Washington, D.C.: Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs, 1999), 190-203.
139. Stokes, China's Strategic Modernization, 96-97; Alastair Iain Johnston, "China's New 'Old Thinking': The Concept of Limited Deterrence," International Security 21, no. 1 (Winter 1995-96): 5-42; Larry M. Wortzel, "Ballistic Missiles and Weapons of Mass Destruction: The View from Beijing," in Proceedings from the Conference on Countering the Missile Threat, International Military Strategies (Washington, D.C.: Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs, 1999), 190-203.
140. Stokes, China's Strategic Modernization, 109-23; Gauthier, "China as Peer Competitor?" 25-34.
141. Stokes, China's Strategic Modernization, 109-23; Gauthier, "China as Peer Competitor?" 25-34.
142. RIA, Moscow in English, July 23, 1999, in FBIS-SOV, July 23, 1999; Simon Saradzhyan, "Russia Ponders Selling Nuclear Submarines to China," Defense News, September 27, 1999, 26; FBIS-CHI, July 9, 1999; FBIS-SOV, July 8, 1999; Taiyang Pao (The Sun) (Hong Kong), June 28, 1999, in FBIS-CHI, June 28, 1999.
143. RIA, Moscow in English, July 23, 1999, in FBIS-SOV, July 23, 1999; Simon Saradzhyan, "Russia Ponders Selling Nuclear Submarines to China," Defense News, September 27, 1999, 26; FBIS-CHI, July 9, 1999; FBIS-SOV, July 8, 1999; Taiyang Pao (The Sun) (Hong Kong), June 28, 1999, in FBIS-CHI, June 28, 1999.
144. RIA, Moscow in English, July 23, 1999, in FBIS-SOV, July 23, 1999; Simon Saradzhyan, "Russia Ponders Selling Nuclear Submarines to China," Defense News, September 27, 1999, 26; FBIS-CHI, July 9, 1999; FBIS-SOV, July 8, 1999; Taiyang Pao (The Sun) (Hong Kong), June 28, 1999, in FBIS-CHI, June 28, 1999.
145. RIA, Moscow in English, July 23, 1999, in FBIS-SOV, July 23, 1999; Simon Saradzhyan, "Russia Ponders Selling Nuclear Submarines to China," Defense News, September 27, 1999, 26; FBIS-CHI, July 9, 1999; FBIS-SOV, July 8, 1999; Taiyang Pao (The Sun) (Hong Kong), June 28, 1999, in FBIS-CHI, June 28, 1999.
146. RIA, Moscow in English, July 23, 1999, in FBIS-SOV, July 23, 1999; Simon Saradzhyan, "Russia Ponders Selling Nuclear Submarines to China," Defense News, September 27, 1999, 26; FBIS-CHI, July 9, 1999; FBIS-SOV, July 8, 1999; Taiyang Pao (The Sun) (Hong Kong), June 28, 1999, in FBIS-CHI, June 28, 1999.
147. Segodnya (Today) (Moscow), October 7, 1999, in FBIS-SOV, October 7, 1999; South China Morning Post, June 26, 1999, in FBIS-CHI, June 26, 1999; Tyler Marshall, "Anti-NATO Axis Could Pose Threats, Experts Say," Los Angeles Times, September 27, 1999; ITAR-TASS, Moscow in English, August 5, 1999, in FBIS-SOV, August 5, 1999; The Asian Age (New Delhi), March 10, 1999, in FBIS, Near East and South Asia [hereafter FBIS-NES], March 10, 1999; Navbharat Times (Delhi), April 10, 1999, in FBIS-NES, April 13, 1999; The Times of India (Internet version) (Mumbai), April 28, 1999, in FBIS-NES, April 28, 1999.
148. Segodnya (Today) (Moscow), October 7, 1999, in FBIS-SOV, October 7, 1999; South China Morning Post, June 26, 1999, in FBIS-CHI, June 26, 1999; Tyler Marshall, "Anti-NATO Axis Could Pose Threats, Experts Say," Los Angeles Times, September 27, 1999; ITAR-TASS, Moscow in English, August 5, 1999, in FBIS-SOV, August 5, 1999; The Asian Age (New Delhi), March 10, 1999, in FBIS, Near East and South Asia [hereafter FBIS-NES], March 10, 1999; Navbharat Times (Delhi), April 10, 1999, in FBIS-NES, April 13, 1999; The Times of India (Internet version) (Mumbai), April 28, 1999, in FBIS-NES, April 28, 1999.
149. Segodnya (Today) (Moscow), October 7, 1999, in FBIS-SOV, October 7, 1999; South China Morning Post, June 26, 1999, in FBIS-CHI, June 26, 1999; Tyler Marshall, "Anti-NATO Axis Could Pose Threats, Experts Say," Los Angeles Times, September 27, 1999; ITAR-TASS, Moscow in English, August 5, 1999, in FBIS-SOV, August 5, 1999; The Asian Age (New Delhi), March 10, 1999, in FBIS, Near East and South Asia [hereafter FBIS-NES], March 10, 1999; Navbharat Times (Delhi), April 10, 1999, in FBIS-NES, April 13, 1999; The Times of India (Internet version) (Mumbai), April 28, 1999, in FBIS-NES, April 28, 1999.
150. Segodnya (Today) (Moscow), October 7, 1999, in FBIS-SOV, October 7, 1999; South China Morning Post, June 26, 1999, in FBIS-CHI, June 26, 1999; Tyler Marshall, "Anti-NATO Axis Could Pose Threats, Experts Say," Los Angeles Times, September 27, 1999; ITAR-TASS, Moscow in English, August 5, 1999, in FBIS-SOV, August 5, 1999; The Asian Age (New Delhi), March 10, 1999, in FBIS, Near East and South Asia [hereafter FBIS-NES], March 10, 1999; Navbharat Times (Delhi), April 10, 1999, in FBIS-NES, April 13, 1999; The Times of India (Internet version) (Mumbai), April 28, 1999, in FBIS-NES, April 28, 1999.
151. Segodnya (Today) (Moscow), October 7, 1999, in FBIS-SOV, October 7, 1999; South China Morning Post, June 26, 1999, in FBIS-CHI, June 26, 1999; Tyler Marshall, "Anti-NATO Axis Could Pose Threats, Experts Say," Los Angeles Times, September 27, 1999; ITAR-TASS, Moscow in English, August 5, 1999, in FBIS-SOV, August 5, 1999; The Asian Age (New Delhi), March 10, 1999, in FBIS, Near East and South Asia [hereafter FBIS-NES], March 10, 1999; Navbharat Times (Delhi), April 10, 1999, in FBIS-NES, April 13, 1999; The Times of India (Internet version) (Mumbai), April 28, 1999, in FBIS-NES, April 28, 1999.
152. Segodnya (Today) (Moscow), October 7, 1999, in FBIS-SOV, October 7, 1999; South China Morning Post, June 26, 1999, in FBIS-CHI, June 26, 1999; Tyler Marshall, "Anti-NATO Axis Could Pose Threats, Experts Say," Los Angeles Times, September 27, 1999; ITAR-TASS, Moscow in English, August 5, 1999, in FBIS-SOV, August 5, 1999; The Asian Age (New Delhi), March 10, 1999, in FBIS, Near East and South Asia [hereafter FBIS-NES], March 10, 1999; Navbharat Times (Delhi), April 10, 1999, in FBIS-NES, April 13, 1999; The Times of India (Internet version) (Mumbai), April 28, 1999, in FBIS-NES, April 28, 1999.
153. ITAR-TASS World Service, Moscow in English, April 27, 1999, in FBIS-SOV, April 27, 1999; Krasnaya Zvezda (Red Star) (Electronic version) (Moscow), June 4, 1999, in FBIS-SOV, June 16, 1999; Nezavisimaya Gazeta (Electronic version), May 29, 1999, in FBIS-SOV, June 14, 1999; The Monitor, March 12, 1999.
154. ITAR-TASS World Service, Moscow in English, April 27, 1999, in FBIS-SOV, April 27, 1999; Krasnaya Zvezda (Red Star) (Electronic version) (Moscow), June 4, 1999, in FBIS-SOV, June 16, 1999; Nezavisimaya Gazeta (Electronic version), May 29, 1999, in FBIS-SOV, June 14, 1999; The Monitor, March 12, 1999.
155. ITAR-TASS World Service, Moscow in English, April 27, 1999, in FBIS-SOV, April 27, 1999; Krasnaya Zvezda (Red Star) (Electronic version) (Moscow), June 4, 1999, in FBIS-SOV, June 16, 1999; Nezavisimaya Gazeta (Electronic version), May 29, 1999, in FBIS-SOV, June 14, 1999; The Monitor, March 12, 1999.
156. Ibid.
157. See Wang Jisi, "The Role of the United States as a Global and Pacific Power: A View from China," Pacific Review 10, no. 1 (1997): 1-18; and the sources cited in notes 33 and 34 above.
158. Czeslaw Tubilewicz, "Comrades No More: Sino-Central European Relations After the Cold War," Problems of Post-Communism 46, no. 2 (March-April 1999): 9-10.
159. Remarks by James Clad on National Public Radio, "All Things Considered" (November 11, 1999).