Canadian exceptionalism: Explaining differences over time in provincial and federal voter turnout

Canadian Journal of Political Science

Volumn 34, Issue 2, 2001, Pages 299-319

  Studlar, Donley T ^a  

^a WEST VIRGINIA UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

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EID: 0040377544     PISSN: 00084239     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1017/s0008423901777918     Document Type: Article

References (95)

1. An earlier version of this article was presented at a conference on "The Evolution of the Canadian Party Systems in the Twentieth Century," University of Waterloo, June, 1999. I thank Rebecca Klase for the idea and Justin Harrison, Christopher Z. Mooney, Chastity Moore, Heather Starsick and Natège Yates for assistance.
2. Rand Dyck, Provincial Politics in Canada (3rd ed.; Scarborough: Prentice-Hall, 1996), 645-66.
3. Robert L. Morlan, "Municipal vs. National Election Turnout: Europe and the United States," Political Science Quarterly 99 (1984), 457-70.
4. George Lutz, "The Interaction of National and Regional Electoral Systems and Their Influence on Representation in Switzerland," paper presented at European Consortium of Political Research, Coventry, March 1998.
5. Susan Howell, "Racism, Cynicism, Economics, and David Duke," American Politics Quarterly 22 (1994), 190-207.
6. Yusaku Horiuchi, "The 'Turnout Twist' in Japanese Elections," paper presented at annual meeting of American Political Science Association, Atlanta, September 1999.
7. Dyck, Provincial Politics in Canada.
8. Richard Johnston, "Federal and Provincial Voting: Contemporary Patterns and Historical Evolution," in David J. Elkins and Richard Simeon, eds., Small Worlds: Provinces and Parties in Canadian Political Life (Toronto: Methuen, 1980), 131-78; Allan Kornberg, William Mishler and Harold D. Clarke, Representative Democracy in the Canadian Provinces (Scarborough: Prentice-Hall, 1982); and John Wilson and Robert J. Williams, "The Itinerant Voter: Another Look at Theories and Methods Used in the Examination of FederalProvincial Voting Variation in Canada," paper presented at annual meeting of New York State Political Science Association, May 1998.
9. Richard Johnston, "Federal and Provincial Voting: Contemporary Patterns and Historical Evolution," in David J. Elkins and Richard Simeon, eds., Small Worlds: Provinces and Parties in Canadian Political Life (Toronto: Methuen, 1980), 131-78; Allan Kornberg, William Mishler and Harold D. Clarke, Representative Democracy in the Canadian Provinces (Scarborough: Prentice-Hall, 1982); and John Wilson and Robert J. Williams, "The Itinerant Voter: Another Look at Theories and Methods Used in the Examination of FederalProvincial Voting Variation in Canada," paper presented at annual meeting of New York State Political Science Association, May 1998.
10. Richard Johnston, "Federal and Provincial Voting: Contemporary Patterns and Historical Evolution," in David J. Elkins and Richard Simeon, eds., Small Worlds: Provinces and Parties in Canadian Political Life (Toronto: Methuen, 1980), 131-78; Allan Kornberg, William Mishler and Harold D. Clarke, Representative Democracy in the Canadian Provinces (Scarborough: Prentice-Hall, 1982); and John Wilson and Robert J. Williams, "The Itinerant Voter: Another Look at Theories and Methods Used in the Examination of FederalProvincial Voting Variation in Canada," paper presented at annual meeting of New York State Political Science Association, May 1998.
11. Howard A. Scarrow, "Patterns of Voter Turnout in Canada," Midwest Journal of Political Science 5 (1961), 351-64; Scarrow, Voting in Canada: A Handbook of Federal and Provincial Election Data (New Orleans: Hauser, 1962); Peter McCormick, "Provincial Party Systems, 1945-1993," in A. Brian Tanguay and Alain-G. Gagnon, eds., Canadian Parties in Transition (2nd ed.; Toronto: Nelson, 1996), 364-66; and McCormick, "Provincial Party Systems, 1945-1993," in Tanguay and Gagnon, eds., Canadian Parties in Transition (1st ed.; Toronto: Nelson, 1989), 170-73.
12. Howard A. Scarrow, "Patterns of Voter Turnout in Canada," Midwest Journal of Political Science 5 (1961), 351-64; Scarrow, Voting in Canada: A Handbook of Federal and Provincial Election Data (New Orleans: Hauser, 1962); Peter McCormick, "Provincial Party Systems, 1945-1993," in A. Brian Tanguay and Alain-G. Gagnon, eds., Canadian Parties in Transition (2nd ed.; Toronto: Nelson, 1996), 364-66; and McCormick, "Provincial Party Systems, 1945-1993," in Tanguay and Gagnon, eds., Canadian Parties in Transition (1st ed.; Toronto: Nelson, 1989), 170-73.
13. Howard A. Scarrow, "Patterns of Voter Turnout in Canada," Midwest Journal of Political Science 5 (1961), 351-64; Scarrow, Voting in Canada: A Handbook of Federal and Provincial Election Data (New Orleans: Hauser, 1962); Peter McCormick, "Provincial Party Systems, 1945-1993," in A. Brian Tanguay and Alain-G. Gagnon, eds., Canadian Parties in Transition (2nd ed.; Toronto: Nelson, 1996), 364-66; and McCormick, "Provincial Party Systems, 1945-1993," in Tanguay and Gagnon, eds., Canadian Parties in Transition (1st ed.; Toronto: Nelson, 1989), 170-73.
14. Howard A. Scarrow, "Patterns of Voter Turnout in Canada," Midwest Journal of Political Science 5 (1961), 351-64; Scarrow, Voting in Canada: A Handbook of Federal and Provincial Election Data (New Orleans: Hauser, 1962); Peter McCormick, "Provincial Party Systems, 1945-1993," in A. Brian Tanguay and Alain-G. Gagnon, eds., Canadian Parties in Transition (2nd ed.; Toronto: Nelson, 1996), 364-66; and McCormick, "Provincial Party Systems, 1945-1993," in Tanguay and Gagnon, eds., Canadian Parties in Transition (1st ed.; Toronto: Nelson, 1989), 170-73.
15. Morlan, "Municipal vs. National Election Turnout"; Joan Font and Rosa Viros, eds., Electoral Abstention in Europe (Barcelona: Institut de Ciencies Politiques I Socials, 1995); and Henry Milner, "Electoral Systems, Integrated Institutions and Turnout in Local and National Elections: Canada in Comparative Perspective," this JOURNAL 30 (1997), 89-106.
16. Morlan, "Municipal vs. National Election Turnout"; Joan Font and Rosa Viros, eds., Electoral Abstention in Europe (Barcelona: Institut de Ciencies Politiques I Socials, 1995); and Henry Milner, "Electoral Systems, Integrated Institutions and Turnout in Local and National Elections: Canada in Comparative Perspective," this JOURNAL 30 (1997), 89-106.
17. Morlan, "Municipal vs. National Election Turnout"; Joan Font and Rosa Viros, eds., Electoral Abstention in Europe (Barcelona: Institut de Ciencies Politiques I Socials, 1995); and Henry Milner, "Electoral Systems, Integrated Institutions and Turnout in Local and National Elections: Canada in Comparative Perspective," this JOURNAL 30 (1997), 89-106.
18. G. Bingham Powell, Jr., Contemporary Democracies: Participation, Stability and Violence (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1982); Powell Jr., "American Voter Turnout in Comparative Perspective," American Political Science Review 80 (1986), 17-43; Robert W. Jackman, "Political Institutions and Voter Turnout in Industrial Democracies," American Political Science Review 81 (1987), 405-23; Richard S. Flickinger and Donley T. Studlar, "Exploring Declining Turnout in Western European Elections," West European Politics 15 (1992), 1-16; and Mark Franklin, "Electoral Participation," in Lawrence LeDuc, Richard G. Niemi and Pippa Morris, eds., Comparing Democracies: Elections and Voting in Global Perspective (Thousand Oaks: Sage, 1996) 216-35.
19. G. Bingham Powell, Jr., Contemporary Democracies: Participation, Stability and Violence (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1982); Powell Jr., "American Voter Turnout in Comparative Perspective," American Political Science Review 80 (1986), 17-43; Robert W. Jackman, "Political Institutions and Voter Turnout in Industrial Democracies," American Political Science Review 81 (1987), 405-23; Richard S. Flickinger and Donley T. Studlar, "Exploring Declining Turnout in Western European Elections," West European Politics 15 (1992), 1-16; and Mark Franklin, "Electoral Participation," in Lawrence LeDuc, Richard G. Niemi and Pippa Morris, eds., Comparing Democracies: Elections and Voting in Global Perspective (Thousand Oaks: Sage, 1996) 216-35.
20. G. Bingham Powell, Jr., Contemporary Democracies: Participation, Stability and Violence (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1982); Powell Jr., "American Voter Turnout in Comparative Perspective," American Political Science Review 80 (1986), 17-43; Robert W. Jackman, "Political Institutions and Voter Turnout in Industrial Democracies," American Political Science Review 81 (1987), 405-23; Richard S. Flickinger and Donley T. Studlar, "Exploring Declining Turnout in Western European Elections," West European Politics 15 (1992), 1-16; and Mark Franklin, "Electoral Participation," in Lawrence LeDuc, Richard G. Niemi and Pippa Morris, eds., Comparing Democracies: Elections and Voting in Global Perspective (Thousand Oaks: Sage, 1996) 216-35.
21. G. Bingham Powell, Jr., Contemporary Democracies: Participation, Stability and Violence (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1982); Powell Jr., "American Voter Turnout in Comparative Perspective," American Political Science Review 80 (1986), 17-43; Robert W. Jackman, "Political Institutions and Voter Turnout in Industrial Democracies," American Political Science Review 81 (1987), 405-23; Richard S. Flickinger and Donley T. Studlar, "Exploring Declining Turnout in Western European Elections," West European Politics 15 (1992), 1-16; and Mark Franklin, "Electoral Participation," in Lawrence LeDuc, Richard G. Niemi and Pippa Morris, eds., Comparing Democracies: Elections and Voting in Global Perspective (Thousand Oaks: Sage, 1996) 216-35.
22. G. Bingham Powell, Jr., Contemporary Democracies: Participation, Stability and Violence (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1982); Powell Jr., "American Voter Turnout in Comparative Perspective," American Political Science Review 80 (1986), 17-43; Robert W. Jackman, "Political Institutions and Voter Turnout in Industrial Democracies," American Political Science Review 81 (1987), 405-23; Richard S. Flickinger and Donley T. Studlar, "Exploring Declining Turnout in Western European Elections," West European Politics 15 (1992), 1-16; and Mark Franklin, "Electoral Participation," in Lawrence LeDuc, Richard G. Niemi and Pippa Morris, eds., Comparing Democracies: Elections and Voting in Global Perspective (Thousand Oaks: Sage, 1996) 216-35.
23. Munroe Eagles, "Voting and Non-Voting in Canadian Federal Elections: An Ecological Analysis," in Herman Bakvis, ed., Voter Turnout in Canada (Toronto: Dundum, 1991), 3-32; Munroe Eagles, "The Franchise and Political Participation in Canada," in Tanguay and Gagnon, eds., Canadian Parties in Transition, 2nd ed., 307-27; and Jerome Black, "Reforming the Context of the Voting Process in Canada: Lessons from Other Democracies," in Bakvis, ed., Voter Turnout in Canada, 61-176.
24. Munroe Eagles, "Voting and Non-Voting in Canadian Federal Elections: An Ecological Analysis," in Herman Bakvis, ed., Voter Turnout in Canada (Toronto: Dundum, 1991), 3-32; Munroe Eagles, "The Franchise and Political Participation in Canada," in Tanguay and Gagnon, eds., Canadian Parties in Transition, 2nd ed., 307-27; and Jerome Black, "Reforming the Context of the Voting Process in Canada: Lessons from Other Democracies," in Bakvis, ed., Voter Turnout in Canada, 61-176.
25. Munroe Eagles, "Voting and Non-Voting in Canadian Federal Elections: An Ecological Analysis," in Herman Bakvis, ed., Voter Turnout in Canada (Toronto: Dundum, 1991), 3-32; Munroe Eagles, "The Franchise and Political Participation in Canada," in Tanguay and Gagnon, eds., Canadian Parties in Transition, 2nd ed., 307-27; and Jerome Black, "Reforming the Context of the Voting Process in Canada: Lessons from Other Democracies," in Bakvis, ed., Voter Turnout in Canada, 61-176.
26. Samuel C. Patterson and Gregory A. Caldeira, "Getting Out the Vote: Participation in Gubernatorial Elections," American Political Science Review 77 (1983), 675-89; and Staci Rhine, "Registration Reform and Turnout Change in the American States," American Politics Quarterly 23 (1995), 409-26.
27. Samuel C. Patterson and Gregory A. Caldeira, "Getting Out the Vote: Participation in Gubernatorial Elections," American Political Science Review 77 (1983), 675-89; and Staci Rhine, "Registration Reform and Turnout Change in the American States," American Politics Quarterly 23 (1995), 409-26.
28. Norman R. Luttbeg, "Differential Voting Turnout Decline in the American States, 1960-82," Social Science Quarterly 65 (1984), 60-73.
29. R. Darcy and James Vanderleeuw, "The Impact of Ballot Format on Voter Rolloff" (mimeographed, Oklahoma State University, 1993).
30. Since an individual federal election is conducted at the same time across the provinces, the provincial results for that election do not constitute statistically independent events.
31. Black, "Reforming the Context of the Voting Process."
32. See also International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Studies, Voter Turnout from 1945 to 1997: A Global Report on Political Participation (2nd ed.; Stockholm, 1997); and Richard S. Katz, Democracy and Elections (New York: Oxford University Press, 1997).
33. See also International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Studies, Voter Turnout from 1945 to 1997: A Global Report on Political Participation (2nd ed.; Stockholm, 1997); and Richard S. Katz, Democracy and Elections (New York: Oxford University Press, 1997).
34. Eagles, "Voting and Non-Voting in Canadian Federal Elections"; and Eagles, "The Franchise and Political Participation in Canada."
35. Eagles, "Voting and Non-Voting in Canadian Federal Elections"; and Eagles, "The Franchise and Political Participation in Canada."
36. Scarrow, Voting in Canada.
37. McCormick, "Provincial Party Systems, 1945-1986."
38. For example, Jon H. Pammett, "Voting Turnout in Canada," in Bakvis, ed., Voter Turnout in Canada, 33-60; Neil Berch, "Another Look at Closeness and Turnout: The Case of the 1979 and 1980 Canadian National Election," Political Research Quarterly 16 (1993), 421-32; and Craig Leonard Brians, "Residential Mobility, Voter Registration, and Electoral Participation in Canada," Political Research Quarterly 50 (1991) 215-21.
39. For example, Jon H. Pammett, "Voting Turnout in Canada," in Bakvis, ed., Voter Turnout in Canada, 33-60; Neil Berch, "Another Look at Closeness and Turnout: The Case of the 1979 and 1980 Canadian National Election," Political Research Quarterly 16 (1993), 421-32; and Craig Leonard Brians, "Residential Mobility, Voter Registration, and Electoral Participation in Canada," Political Research Quarterly 50 (1991) 215-21.
40. For example, Jon H. Pammett, "Voting Turnout in Canada," in Bakvis, ed., Voter Turnout in Canada, 33-60; Neil Berch, "Another Look at Closeness and Turnout: The Case of the 1979 and 1980 Canadian National Election," Political Research Quarterly 16 (1993), 421-32; and Craig Leonard Brians, "Residential Mobility, Voter Registration, and Electoral Participation in Canada," Political Research Quarterly 50 (1991) 215-21.
41. Cees vander Eijk and Mark Franklin, Choosing Europe? The European Electorate and National Politics in the Face of Union (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1996).
42. Franklin, "Electoral Participation," 218.
43. Powell, Contemporary Democracies; and Jackman, "Political Institutions and Voter Turnout in Industrial Democracies."
44. Powell, Contemporary Democracies; and Jackman, "Political Institutions and Voter Turnout in Industrial Democracies."
45. André Biais and R.K. Carty, "Does Proportional Representation Foster Voter Turnout?" European Journal of Political Research 18 (1990), 167-81.
46. Robert Jackman and Ross A. Miller, "Voter Turnout in Industrial Democracies During the 1980s," Comparative Political Studies 27 (1995), 467-92.
47. Ibid., 490.
48. Franklin, "Electoral Participation."
49. André Blais and Agnieszka Dobrzynska, "Turnout in Electoral Democracies," European Journal of Political Research 33 (1998), 239-61.
50. Markus M.L. Crepaz, "The Impact of Party Polarization and Post-Materialism on Voter Turnout: A Comparative Study of 16 Industrial Democracies," European Journal of Political Research 18 (1990), 183-205.
51. Martin Wattenberg, "The Decline of Party Mobilization," paper presented at the Elections, Parties, and Public Opinion Conference of the Political Studies Association, Manchester, England, 1998.
52. Turnout is defined as the percentage voting of those registered to vote. In order to facilitate comparison with provincial elections, the results for federal elections have the province as the unit of analysis, which means that the averages are based on treating each province as an equal unit. Thus the federal turnouts listed differ from standard ones because of two factors: (1) territories are not included; and (2) differential population of the provinces is not considered.
53. Scarrow, Voting in Canada; Louis M. Simerl, "A Survey of Provincial Election Results," in Paul W. Fox, ed., Politics Canada (5th ed.; Toronto: McGraw-Hill Ryerson, 1982), 655-57; Louis M. Simerl, "Recent Provincial Election Results to 1986," in Paul W. Fox and Graham White, eds., Politics Canada (6th ed.; Toronto: McGraw-Hill Ryerson, 1987), 413-15; Paul W. Fox, "Recent Canadian Provincial Election Results," in Fox and White, eds., Politics Canada (7th ed.; Toronto: McGraw-Hill Ryerson, 1991), 338-41; and Frank Feigert, Canada Votes 1935-1988 (Durham: Duke University Press, 1989).
54. Scarrow, Voting in Canada; Louis M. Simerl, "A Survey of Provincial Election Results," in Paul W. Fox, ed., Politics Canada (5th ed.; Toronto: McGraw-Hill Ryerson, 1982), 655-57; Louis M. Simerl, "Recent Provincial Election Results to 1986," in Paul W. Fox and Graham White, eds., Politics Canada (6th ed.; Toronto: McGraw-Hill Ryerson, 1987), 413-15; Paul W. Fox, "Recent Canadian Provincial Election Results," in Fox and White, eds., Politics Canada (7th ed.; Toronto: McGraw-Hill Ryerson, 1991), 338-41; and Frank Feigert, Canada Votes 1935-1988 (Durham: Duke University Press, 1989).
55. Scarrow, Voting in Canada; Louis M. Simerl, "A Survey of Provincial Election Results," in Paul W. Fox, ed., Politics Canada (5th ed.; Toronto: McGraw-Hill Ryerson, 1982), 655-57; Louis M. Simerl, "Recent Provincial Election Results to 1986," in Paul W. Fox and Graham White, eds., Politics Canada (6th ed.; Toronto: McGraw-Hill Ryerson, 1987), 413-15; Paul W. Fox, "Recent Canadian Provincial Election Results," in Fox and White, eds., Politics Canada (7th ed.; Toronto: McGraw-Hill Ryerson, 1991), 338-41; and Frank Feigert, Canada Votes 1935-1988 (Durham: Duke University Press, 1989).
56. Scarrow, Voting in Canada; Louis M. Simerl, "A Survey of Provincial Election Results," in Paul W. Fox, ed., Politics Canada (5th ed.; Toronto: McGraw-Hill Ryerson, 1982), 655-57; Louis M. Simerl, "Recent Provincial Election Results to 1986," in Paul W. Fox and Graham White, eds., Politics Canada (6th ed.; Toronto: McGraw-Hill Ryerson, 1987), 413-15; Paul W. Fox, "Recent Canadian Provincial Election Results," in Fox and White, eds., Politics Canada (7th ed.; Toronto: McGraw-Hill Ryerson, 1991), 338-41; and Frank Feigert, Canada Votes 1935-1988 (Durham: Duke University Press, 1989).
57. Scarrow, Voting in Canada; Louis M. Simerl, "A Survey of Provincial Election Results," in Paul W. Fox, ed., Politics Canada (5th ed.; Toronto: McGraw-Hill Ryerson, 1982), 655-57; Louis M. Simerl, "Recent Provincial Election Results to 1986," in Paul W. Fox and Graham White, eds., Politics Canada (6th ed.; Toronto: McGraw-Hill Ryerson, 1987), 413-15; Paul W. Fox, "Recent Canadian Provincial Election Results," in Fox and White, eds., Politics Canada (7th ed.; Toronto: McGraw-Hill Ryerson, 1991), 338-41; and Frank Feigert, Canada Votes 1935-1988 (Durham: Duke University Press, 1989).
58. Dyck, Provincial Politics in Canada, 2nd ed., and 3rd ed.; McCormick, "Provincial Party Systems, 1945-1993"; and McCormick, "Provincial Party Systems, 1945-1986."
59. Dyck, Provincial Politics in Canada, 2nd ed., and 3rd ed.; McCormick, "Provincial Party Systems, 1945-1993"; and McCormick, "Provincial Party Systems, 1945-1986."
60. Dyck, Provincial Politics in Canada, 2nd ed., and 3rd ed.; McCormick, "Provincial Party Systems, 1945-1993"; and McCormick, "Provincial Party Systems, 1945-1986."
61. There was no Canadian federal election in pre-Confederation Newfoundland in 1945.
62. V. Peter Harder, "Career Patterns and Political Parties at the National and Subnational Levels in the United States and Canada," in Jean-Pierre Gaboury and James Ross Hurley, eds., The Canadian House of Commons Observed (Ottawa: University of Ottawa Press, 1979), 327-45.
63. Maurice Pinard, The Rise of a Third Party (Englewood Cliffs: Prenctice-Hall, 1971); and Eagles, "Voting and Non-Voting in Canadian Federal Elections."
64. Maurice Pinard, The Rise of a Third Party (Englewood Cliffs: Prenctice-Hall, 1971); and Eagles, "Voting and Non-Voting in Canadian Federal Elections."
65. Two alternative measures of marginality were employed, one based on the difference between the first and second party vote percentages at the current election, the second on the differences in these vote percentages at the previous election. Even though the voters could not know the marginality of the current election as they were voting, they could very well have informed expectations about this based on media reports as well as their own soundings. The two variables are correlated at .419 in the provincial data and .407 in the federal data. Only results for the lagged measure of incumbency are reported for the multivariate models. Results for the second current marginality measure, similar to those for the lagged one, are available from the author on request.
66. Two alternative measures of the party system at the election contested were examined, one based on a party receiving at least 5 per cent of the vote in the province at that election, a second on receiving at least 10 per cent of the vote in the province. The two measures were correlated at .692 in the provincial data and .696 in the federal data. Only the first, more inclusive, measure is reported for the multivariate models, as the two yielded similar although not identical results. Data on the 10 per cent measure are available from the author on request.
67. In Canada, electoral system differences are limited and have been reduced over time. In the earlier years almost all provincial as well as federal elections had a few multimember plurality electoral districts. From 1945 to 1965 there were two federal multimember districts, in Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island. Three provinces - Alberta, British Columbia and Manitoba - experimented with preferential voting for provincial elections, and two - Prince Edward Island and New Brunswick - had exclusively multimember districts for provincial elections until the 1970s. With the elimination of the dual-member districts in PEI prior to the 1996 provincial election, all provincial and federal districts became single-member district simple plurality. Although still worth testing, any effects for alternative electoral systems may be time-bound as well as limited to certain provinces. The absence of the early Prince Edward Island and New Brunswick data also hinders this analysis. The coding is 1 = single-member district, simple plurality, 2 = a combination of single member and multimember district, simple plurality, 3 = multimember district, simple plurality, 4 = preferential voting. For federal elections, 90.5 per cent of the provinces had single-member districts, the rest were double-member. For provincial elections, after eliminating the 11 elections in Prince Edward Island and New Brunswick for which turnout data do not exist, there were 60.4 per cent exclusively single-member, 26 per cent combination of single-member and multimember, 7.5 per cent exclusively multimember, and 6 per cent preferential voting. The loss of the 11 elections halved the number of exclusively multimember elections; the percentages for the other types were only marginally increased.
68. The Rose index of proportionality is used. It is both simple to calculate and related to others which have been used in Canada, calculated as the sum of the differences between each party's share of seats and its share of votes, divided by two and subtracted from 100. See Richard Rose, "Electoral Systems: A Question of Degree or of Principle?" in Arend Lijphart and Bernard Grofman, eds., Choosing an Electoral System (New York: Praeger, 1984), 73-81; and R. Kent Weaver, "Improving Representation in the Canadian House of Commons," this JOURNAL 30 (1997), 473-512. The index of proportionality for the current election is used since it captures the dynamics of the campaign, including possible tactical voting.
69. The Rose index of proportionality is used. It is both simple to calculate and related to others which have been used in Canada, calculated as the sum of the differences between each party's share of seats and its share of votes, divided by two and subtracted from 100. See Richard Rose, "Electoral Systems: A Question of Degree or of Principle?" in Arend Lijphart and Bernard Grofman, eds., Choosing an Electoral System (New York: Praeger, 1984), 73-81; and R. Kent Weaver, "Improving Representation in the Canadian House of Commons," this JOURNAL 30 (1997), 473-512. The index of proportionality for the current election is used since it captures the dynamics of the campaign, including possible tactical voting.
70. This is the only socio-economic variable included, which may affect the results for provincial and federal turnout separately, but should not affect the differences between the two since they share the same socioeconomic context.
71. Seasons are assessed by dummy variables, with winter the reference season.
72. Ivor Crewe, "Electoral Participation," in David Butler, Howard R. Penniman and Austin Ranney, eds., Democracy at the Polls (Washington: American Enterprise Institute, 1981), 216-62; and Morlan, "Municipal vs. National Election Turnout."
73. Ivor Crewe, "Electoral Participation," in David Butler, Howard R. Penniman and Austin Ranney, eds., Democracy at the Polls (Washington: American Enterprise Institute, 1981), 216-62; and Morlan, "Municipal vs. National Election Turnout."
74. Eagles, "Voter Turnout in Canada."
75. McCormick, "Provincial Party Systems."
76. Eagles, "Voting and Non-Voting in Canadian Federal Elections"; and Eagles, "The Franchise and Political Participation in Canada."
77. Eagles, "Voting and Non-Voting in Canadian Federal Elections"; and Eagles, "The Franchise and Political Participation in Canada."
78. For a similar method applied to federal and provincial party vote differences across provinces, see Johnston, "Federal and Provincial Voting," 131-78.
79. In only 17 of 145 cases did more than one provincial election occur in the same province between consecutive federal elections. In only 40 of 169 cases did more than one federal election occur between consecutive provincial elections in the same province, largely stemming from those of 1957-1958, 1962-1963 and 1979-1980. Only 27 of the 169 federal election cases occurred in the same year as a provincial election in that province.
80. The variables are the same as previously with two exceptions: differences between provincial and the nearest federal election were created for marginality and proportionality, as noted in Table 4.
81. Eagles, Voter Turnout in Canada.
82. Ibid.; and Eagles, "The Franchise and Political Participation in Canada."
83. Ibid.; and Eagles, "The Franchise and Political Participation in Canada."
84. Font and Viros, eds., Electoral Abstention in Europe.
85. Marsha A. Chandler and William M. Chandler, Public Policy and Provincial Politics (Toronto: McGraw-Hill Ryerson, 1979), 76-83; Dyck, Provincial Politics in Canada, 3rd ed., 4-7; Kornberg et al., Representative Democracy in the Canadian Provinces, 34-39; and Richard Simeon and David J. Elkins, "Provincial Political Cultures in Canada," in Elkins and Simeon, eds., Small Worlds, 285-312.
86. Marsha A. Chandler and William M. Chandler, Public Policy and Provincial Politics (Toronto: McGraw-Hill Ryerson, 1979), 76-83; Dyck, Provincial Politics in Canada, 3rd ed., 4-7; Kornberg et al., Representative Democracy in the Canadian Provinces, 34-39; and Richard Simeon and David J. Elkins, "Provincial Political Cultures in Canada," in Elkins and Simeon, eds., Small Worlds, 285-312.
87. Marsha A. Chandler and William M. Chandler, Public Policy and Provincial Politics (Toronto: McGraw-Hill Ryerson, 1979), 76-83; Dyck, Provincial Politics in Canada, 3rd ed., 4-7; Kornberg et al., Representative Democracy in the Canadian Provinces, 34-39; and Richard Simeon and David J. Elkins, "Provincial Political Cultures in Canada," in Elkins and Simeon, eds., Small Worlds, 285-312.
88. Marsha A. Chandler and William M. Chandler, Public Policy and Provincial Politics (Toronto: McGraw-Hill Ryerson, 1979), 76-83; Dyck, Provincial Politics in Canada, 3rd ed., 4-7; Kornberg et al., Representative Democracy in the Canadian Provinces, 34-39; and Richard Simeon and David J. Elkins, "Provincial Political Cultures in Canada," in Elkins and Simeon, eds., Small Worlds, 285-312.
89. Richard S. Flickinger, Donley T. Studlar and Stephen E. Bennett, "Turnout in European Elections: Does the Conventional Wisdom Still Hold?" paper presented at Southern Political Science Association, Savannah, November 1999.
90. Rainer-Olaf Schultze, "Voting and Non-Voting in German Elections," in Font and Viros, eds., Electoral Abstention in Europe. 85-112.
91. Wattenberg, "The Decline of Party Mobilization."
92. Morlan, "Municipal vs. National Election Turnout"; Milner, "Electoral Systems, Integrated Institutions and Turnout"; and Johnston, "Federal and Provincial Voting."
93. Morlan, "Municipal vs. National Election Turnout"; Milner, "Electoral Systems, Integrated Institutions and Turnout"; and Johnston, "Federal and Provincial Voting."
94. Morlan, "Municipal vs. National Election Turnout"; Milner, "Electoral Systems, Integrated Institutions and Turnout"; and Johnston, "Federal and Provincial Voting."
95. Ibid., 511. "MD" stands for majoritarian and discontinuous. The lack of electoral system variation in Canada means that one dimension of Milner's twofold institutional characterization cannot be tested. For further arguments about the effects of this dimension in Canada, see Henry Milner, ed., Making Every Vote Count: Reassessing Canada's Electoral System (Peterborough: Broadview Press 1999).