Fortuitous by-products

Comparative Politics

Volumn 29, Issue 3, 1997, Pages 383-402

  Waterbury, John ^a  

^a NONE

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[No Author keywords available]

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EID: 0039613585     PISSN: 00104159     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.2307/422127     Document Type: Article

References (58)

1. Dankwart A. Rustow, "Transitions to Democracy: Toward a Dynamic Model," Comparative Politics, 2 (April 1970), 351.
2. Ibid., pp. 344-45.
3. Ibid., p. 350.
4. Rustow excluded Japan and Germany for reasons already mentioned (but included Italy), as well as the United States, Australia, New Zealand, and Israel because their democracies came in the baggage of immigrants. Great Britain was excluded because Rustow was interested in relatively rapid transitions.
5. He excluded Greece, which fell under military dictatorship in 1967, and Mexico, because it had not enjoyed three or more consecutive, popular, contested elections. Presumably, Peru was excluded because of the 1969 military takeover, but Rustow does not mention it.
6. Anouar Abdel-Malek, Egypt: Military Society (New York: Vintage Books, 1968); Manfred Halpern, The Politics of Social Change in the Middle East and North Africa (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1963); Hassan Riad, L'Egypte Nasserienne (Paris: Editions de Minuit, 1964).
7. Anouar Abdel-Malek, Egypt: Military Society (New York: Vintage Books, 1968); Manfred Halpern, The Politics of Social Change in the Middle East and North Africa (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1963); Hassan Riad, L'Egypte Nasserienne (Paris: Editions de Minuit, 1964).
8. Anouar Abdel-Malek, Egypt: Military Society (New York: Vintage Books, 1968); Manfred Halpern, The Politics of Social Change in the Middle East and North Africa (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1963); Hassan Riad, L'Egypte Nasserienne (Paris: Editions de Minuit, 1964).
9. Samuel P. Huntington, Political Order in Changing Societies (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1968), p. 7.
10. Rustow, p. 345.
11. Fernando Henrique Cardoso and Enzo Faletto, Dependency and Development in Latin America (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1979); Guillermo O'Donnell, Modernization and Bureaucratic Authoritarianism (Berkeley: Institute of International Studies, 1973). In fairness to O'Donnell, by the late 1970s he was already writing about the internal contradictions in the bureaucratic-authoritarian state. See Guillermo O'Donnell, "Tensions in the Bureaucratic-Authoritarian State and the Question of Democracy," in David Collier, ed., The New Authoritarianism in Latin America (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1979), pp. 285-318.
12. Fernando Henrique Cardoso and Enzo Faletto, Dependency and Development in Latin America (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1979); Guillermo O'Donnell, Modernization and Bureaucratic Authoritarianism (Berkeley: Institute of International Studies, 1973). In fairness to O'Donnell, by the late 1970s he was already writing about the internal contradictions in the bureaucratic-authoritarian state. See Guillermo O'Donnell, "Tensions in the Bureaucratic-Authoritarian State and the Question of Democracy," in David Collier, ed., The New Authoritarianism in Latin America (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1979), pp. 285-318.
13. Fernando Henrique Cardoso and Enzo Faletto, Dependency and Development in Latin America (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1979); Guillermo O'Donnell, Modernization and Bureaucratic Authoritarianism (Berkeley: Institute of International Studies, 1973). In fairness to O'Donnell, by the late 1970s he was already writing about the internal contradictions in the bureaucratic-authoritarian state. See Guillermo O'Donnell, "Tensions in the Bureaucratic-Authoritarian State and the Question of Democracy," in David Collier, ed., The New Authoritarianism in Latin America (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1979), pp. 285-318.
14. John Waterbury, "Export-Led Growth and the Center-Right Coalition in Turkey," Comparative Politics, 24 (January 1992), 127-46.
15. Michael Bratton and Nicholas van de Walle, Will Africa Democratize? (New York: Cambridge University Press, forthcoming 1997), record that in 1989 there were forty-two unambiguously authoritarian regimes in sub-Saharan Africa; by 1992 forty had taken measures to restore political rights. Only Liberia and the Sudan failed to do so. Granting political rights is not tantamount to democratization, but there was far more liberalization in sub-Saharan Africa than in the Middle East.
16. Adam Przeworski, Democracy and the Market: Political and Economic Reforms in Eastern Europe and Latin America (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1991); John Waterbury, "Democracy without Democrats? The Potential for Political Liberalization in the Middle East," in Ghassan Salamé, ed., Democracy without Democrats? (London: I. B. Taurus, 1994), pp. 23-47.
17. Adam Przeworski, Democracy and the Market: Political and Economic Reforms in Eastern Europe and Latin America (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1991); John Waterbury, "Democracy without Democrats? The Potential for Political Liberalization in the Middle East," in Ghassan Salamé, ed., Democracy without Democrats? (London: I. B. Taurus, 1994), pp. 23-47.
18. Przeworski, p. 73. Also, Adam Przeworski, "Democracy as a Contingent Outcome of Conflicts," in Jon Elster and Rune Slagstad, eds., Constitutionalism and Democracy (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1988), p. 69.
19. Ibid., pp. 37-38.
20. Philippe Schmitter, "Transitology and Consolidology: Proto-Sciences of Democratization?," unpublished ms., Stanford University, September 1994; Rustow, p. 362.
21. Walter Murphy, "Civil Law, Common Law, and Constitutional Democracy," Louisiana Law Review, 91 (1991), 100-14, as cited in Stephen Marks, "The New Cambodian Constitution: From Civil War to a Fragile Democracy," Columbia Human Rights Law Review, 26 (1994), 109.
22. Walter Murphy, "Civil Law, Common Law, and Constitutional Democracy," Louisiana Law Review, 91 (1991), 100-14, as cited in Stephen Marks, "The New Cambodian Constitution: From Civil War to a Fragile Democracy," Columbia Human Rights Law Review, 26 (1994), 109.
23. Or as Dahl pithily put it: "In a rough sense, the essence of competitive politics is bribery of the electorate by politicians." Robert Dahl, A Preference to Democratic Theory (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1956), pp. 68.
24. See Phares Mutibwa, Uganda since Independence (Kampala: Fountain Publishers, 1992); Mahmoud Mamdani, Critical Reflections on the NRM (Kampala: Monitor Publications, 1995).
25. See Phares Mutibwa, Uganda since Independence (Kampala: Fountain Publishers, 1992); Mahmoud Mamdani, Critical Reflections on the NRM (Kampala: Monitor Publications, 1995).
26. Akiiki Mujaju, "Towards an NRM Constitution in Uganda," Political Science Seminar, Makerere University, Kampala, November 7, 1995.
27. Ibid., p. 31; and John Balzar, "Profile of Yoweri Museveni," Los Angeles Times, June 27, 1995, p. 5. Unlike earlier populist cum corporatist leaders, Museveni is willing to live with conflict. In the Los Angeles Times he is quoted as follows: "We need to reach the point where there is competition between interests, not identities. Today you have Buganda against Acholi. That is very unhealthy. But once you have employees struggling against employers, ah! There is no way an employer will want to massacre all his employees. There will be struggle, yes, but neither side wants to get rid of the other."
28. Ibid., p. 31; and John Balzar, "Profile of Yoweri Museveni," Los Angeles Times, June 27, 1995, p. 5. Unlike earlier populist cum corporatist leaders, Museveni is willing to live with conflict. In the Los Angeles Times he is quoted as follows: "We need to reach the point where there is competition between interests, not identities. Today you have Buganda against Acholi. That is very unhealthy. But once you have employees struggling against employers, ah! There is no way an employer will want to massacre all his employees. There will be struggle, yes, but neither side wants to get rid of the other."
29. Apolo Nsibambi, "The Restoration of Traditional Rulers," in Holger B. Hansen and Michael Twaddle, eds., From Chaos to Order: The Politics of Constitution-Making in Uganda (Kampala: Fountain Publishers, 1995?), pp. 11-60.
30. Judy Geist, "Political Significance of the Constituent Assembly Elections," in Hansen and Twaddle, eds., pp. 90-113, notes the high level of registration and voter turnout.
31. See Michael Hudson, Lebanon: Precarious Republic (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1968).
32. See Severine Labat, Les islamistes algériens (Paris: Seuil, 1995), p. 98.
33. At the time of writing, Turkey's Islamic Welfare (Refah) Party formed a coalition government with the True Path Party of Tansu Çiller. It is not clear whether this coalition can survive, but the Welfare Party can not, and will not be allowed by the Turkish military, to govern alone.
34. Dahl, A Preface, p. 98.
35. See Adam Przeworski and Fernando Limongi, "Political Regimes and Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Perspectives, 7 (Summer 1993), 63.
36. See John Waterbury, "The Political Economy of Authoritarianism and Democracy: From Social Contracts to Extraction Contracts," in John Entelis, ed., Islam, Democracy, and the State in North Africa (Bloomington: Indiana University Press, forthcoming).
37. Goran Hyden, Beyond Ujamaa in Tanzania (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1980).
38. See Alan Richards and John Waterbury, A Political Economy of the Middle East (Boulder: Westview, 1996), p. 224. The estimate originates with the IMF.
39. On the relative bargaining strengths of "liquid" and fixed capital, see Robert Bates and Da-Hsiang Lien, "A Note on Taxation, Development and Representative Government," Politics and Society, 1 (1985), 53-70; and Robert Bates, "A Political Scientist Looks at Tax Reform," in Malcolm Gillis, ed., Tax Reform in Developing Countries (Durham: Duke University Press, 1989), pp. 473-91.
40. On the relative bargaining strengths of "liquid" and fixed capital, see Robert Bates and Da-Hsiang Lien, "A Note on Taxation, Development and Representative Government," Politics and Society, 1 (1985), 53-70; and Robert Bates, "A Political Scientist Looks at Tax Reform," in Malcolm Gillis, ed., Tax Reform in Developing Countries (Durham: Duke University Press, 1989), pp. 473-91.
41. See Hazem Beblawi and Giacomo Luciani, eds., The Rentier State (London: Croom Helm, 1987).
42. Waterbury, "The Political Economy of Authoritarianism and Democracy."
43. John F. Due, Indirect Taxation in Developing Economies (Baltimore: The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1988); and Richard Goode, "Tax Advice to Developing Countries: An Historical Survey," World Development, 21 (1993), 37-53.
44. John F. Due, Indirect Taxation in Developing Economies (Baltimore: The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1988); and Richard Goode, "Tax Advice to Developing Countries: An Historical Survey," World Development, 21 (1993), 37-53.
45. Roy Bahl, "The Political Economy of Jamaican Tax Reform," in Gillis, ed., pp. 115-76.
46. Zehra Arat, Democracy and Human Rights in Developing Countries (Boulder: Lynne Rienner, 1991), p. 103.
47. Bratton and van de Walle, Will Africa Democratize?, found in their multivariate analysis of political protest and liberalization in sub-Saharan Africa that the number of business associations in a country was positively associated with levels of protest. See also Nancy Bermeo with José García-Duran, "Spain: Dual Transition Implemented by Two Parties," in Stephan Haggard and Steven Webb, eds., Voting for Reform: Democracy, Political Liberalization, and Economic Adjustment (New York: World Bank/Oxford University Press, 1994), pp. 88-127.
48. Bratton and van de Walle, Will Africa Democratize?, found in their multivariate analysis of political protest and liberalization in sub-Saharan Africa that the number of business associations in a country was positively associated with levels of protest. See also Nancy Bermeo with José García-Duran, "Spain: Dual Transition Implemented by Two Parties," in Stephan Haggard and Steven Webb, eds., Voting for Reform: Democracy, Political Liberalization, and Economic Adjustment (New York: World Bank/Oxford University Press, 1994), pp. 88-127.
49. Przeworski and Limongi.
50. It could be argued that it is easier to bribe a single autocrat than an entire legislature. Also, democratization is usually accompanied by a strengthening of the judiciary, the right of appeal, and responsibility of elected officials to the electorate and thus offers greater protections. One of Uganda's leading Asian businessmen, Mayur Madhvani, stated that, while he considered himself apolitical, he advocated multiparty democracy. "You see, if there are no checks and balances, things can go wrong, so it is important that other parties also function and prove through their manifestos that they have something to offer." Interview, The Monitor (Kampala), Feb. 23-26, 1996. See Andrei Shleifer, "Establishing Property Rights," Proceedings of the World Bank Annual Conference on Development Economics (Washington, D.C.: World Bank, 1994), p. 97.
51. It could be argued that it is easier to bribe a single autocrat than an entire legislature. Also, democratization is usually accompanied by a strengthening of the judiciary, the right of appeal, and responsibility of elected officials to the electorate and thus offers greater protections. One of Uganda's leading Asian businessmen, Mayur Madhvani, stated that, while he considered himself apolitical, he advocated multiparty democracy. "You see, if there are no checks and balances, things can go wrong, so it is important that other parties also function and prove through their manifestos that they have something to offer." Interview, The Monitor (Kampala), Feb. 23-26, 1996. See Andrei Shleifer, "Establishing Property Rights," Proceedings of the World Bank Annual Conference on Development Economics (Washington, D.C.: World Bank, 1994), p. 97.
52. John Freeman, Democracy and the Markets: The Politics of Mixed Economies (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1989).
53. See David Laitin, "The National Uprisings in the Soviet Union," World Politics, 44 (October 1991), 139-77.
54. See Bahru Zewde, A History of Modern Ethiopia (Addis Ababa: Addis Ababa University Press, 1994); and Richard Pankhurst, A Social History of Ethiopia (Addis Ababa: Institute of Ethiopian Studies, 1990).
55. See Bahru Zewde, A History of Modern Ethiopia (Addis Ababa: Addis Ababa University Press, 1994); and Richard Pankhurst, A Social History of Ethiopia (Addis Ababa: Institute of Ethiopian Studies, 1990).
56. Mengistu supported the Southern People's Liberation Army in the Sudan, which since 1983 waged war against the government in Khartoum. Under Colonel Omar al-Bashir and the National Islamic Front of Hassan Turabi in 1989, the Sudanese government helped Ethiopians opposed to the Derg.
57. Bratton and van de Walle.
58. Marks, The Economist, Nov. 25, 1995, p. 35.