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Volumn 74, Issue 4, 1997, Pages 797-813

Changes in media credibility when a predicted disaster doesn't happen

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EID: 0038878878     PISSN: 10776990     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1177/107769909707400409     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (26)

References (82)
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    • note
    • The center director, who later left the university, some years earlier had predicted a devastating earthquake in North Carolina, and had enlisted the aid of a psychic in verifying his prediction. That earthquake also had not performed as scheduled.
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    • note
    • Meaning was measured by the personalized risk index (Cronbach's α = .71) and included the following items: "I don't believe an earthquake would really hurt me" (reverse coded). "There is nothing I can do about earthquakes, so I don't try to prepare for that kind of emergency." "The way I look at it, nothing is going to help if there were an earthquake." The response options were (4) strongly agree, (3) agree somewhat, (2) disagree somewhat, (1) strongly disagree. The higher the score, the greater the perceived risk.
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    • Taylor, "Adjustment."; Shelley E. Taylor and Jonathon D. Brown, "Positive Illusions and Well-Being Revisited: Separating Fact from Fiction," Psychological Bulletin 116 (July 1994): 21-27.
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    • 25. Fiske and Taylor, Social Cognition; Dennis S. Mileti and Colleen Fitzpatrick, The Great Earthquake Experiment: Risk Communication and Public Action (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1993); Dennis S. Mileti and Paul W. O'Brien, "Warnings During Disaster: Normalizing Communication Risk," Social Problems 39 (March 1992): 40-57; Shelley E. Taylor and Jonathon D. Brown, "Illusions of Well-Being: A Social Psychological Perspective on Mental Health," Psychological Bulletin 103 (March 1988): 193-210; Shelley E. Taylor, Rebecca L. Collins, Laurie A. Skokan, and Lisa Aspenwall, "Maintaining Positive Illusions in the Face of Negative Information: Getting the Facts Without Letting Them Get to You," Journal of Social and Clinical Psychology 8 (summer 1989): 114-129; Turner, Nigg, and Paz, Waiting.
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    • Boulder, CO: Westview Press
    • Fiske and Taylor, Social Cognition; Dennis S. Mileti and Colleen Fitzpatrick, The Great Earthquake Experiment: Risk Communication and Public Action (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1993); Dennis S. Mileti and Paul W. O'Brien, "Warnings During Disaster: Normalizing Communication Risk," Social Problems 39 (March 1992): 40-57; Shelley E. Taylor and Jonathon D. Brown, "Illusions of Well-Being: A Social Psychological Perspective on Mental Health," Psychological Bulletin 103 (March 1988): 193-210; Shelley E. Taylor, Rebecca L. Collins, Laurie A. Skokan, and Lisa Aspenwall, "Maintaining Positive Illusions in the Face of Negative Information: Getting the Facts Without Letting Them Get to You," Journal of Social and Clinical Psychology 8 (summer 1989): 114-129; Turner, Nigg, and Paz, Waiting.
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    • Warnings during disaster: Normalizing communication risk
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    • Maintaining positive illusions in the face of negative information: Getting the facts without letting them get to you
    • Fiske and Taylor, Social Cognition; Dennis S. Mileti and Colleen Fitzpatrick, The Great Earthquake Experiment: Risk Communication and Public Action (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1993); Dennis S. Mileti and Paul W. O'Brien, "Warnings During Disaster: Normalizing Communication Risk," Social Problems 39 (March 1992): 40-57; Shelley E. Taylor and Jonathon D. Brown, "Illusions of Well-Being: A Social Psychological Perspective on Mental Health," Psychological Bulletin 103 (March 1988): 193-210; Shelley E. Taylor, Rebecca L. Collins, Laurie A. Skokan, and Lisa Aspenwall, "Maintaining Positive Illusions in the Face of Negative Information: Getting the Facts Without Letting Them Get to You," Journal of Social and Clinical Psychology 8 (summer 1989): 114-129; Turner, Nigg, and Paz, Waiting.
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    • Taylor, S.E.1    Collins, R.L.2    Skokan, L.A.3    Aspenwall, L.4
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    • 85033073107 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Fiske and Taylor, Social Cognition; Dennis S. Mileti and Colleen Fitzpatrick, The Great Earthquake Experiment: Risk Communication and Public Action (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1993); Dennis S. Mileti and Paul W. O'Brien, "Warnings During Disaster: Normalizing Communication Risk," Social Problems 39 (March 1992): 40-57; Shelley E. Taylor and Jonathon D. Brown, "Illusions of Well-Being: A Social Psychological Perspective on Mental Health," Psychological Bulletin 103 (March 1988): 193-210; Shelley E. Taylor, Rebecca L. Collins, Laurie A. Skokan, and Lisa Aspenwall, "Maintaining Positive Illusions in the Face of Negative Information: Getting the Facts Without Letting Them Get to You," Journal of Social and Clinical Psychology 8 (summer 1989): 114-129; Turner, Nigg, and Paz, Waiting.
    • Waiting
    • Turner1    Nigg2    Paz3
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    • 85033074076 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Taylor, "Adjustment"; Turner, Nigg, and Paz, Waiting; Mileti and Fitzpatrick, The Great; L. Erwin Atwood and Ann M. Major, Goodbye, Gweilo: Public Opinion and the 1997 Problem in Hong Kong (Cresskill, NJ: Hampton Press, 1996).
    • Adjustment
    • Taylor1
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    • 85033073107 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Taylor, "Adjustment"; Turner, Nigg, and Paz, Waiting; Mileti and Fitzpatrick, The Great; L. Erwin Atwood and Ann M. Major, Goodbye, Gweilo: Public Opinion and the 1997 Problem in Hong Kong (Cresskill, NJ: Hampton Press, 1996).
    • Waiting
    • Turner1    Nigg2    Paz3
  • 39
    • 85033085104 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Taylor, "Adjustment"; Turner, Nigg, and Paz, Waiting; Mileti and Fitzpatrick, The Great; L. Erwin Atwood and Ann M. Major, Goodbye, Gweilo: Public Opinion and the 1997 Problem in Hong Kong (Cresskill, NJ: Hampton Press, 1996).
    • The Great
    • Mileti1    Fitzpatrick2
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    • The construction of social reality
    • ed. James T. Tedeschi (Chicago: Aldine Atherton Publishing Co. Inc.)
    • Jack M. McLeod and Steven R. Chaffee, "The Construction of Social Reality," in The Social Influence Processes, ed. James T. Tedeschi (Chicago: Aldine Atherton Publishing Co. Inc., 1972), 50-99.
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    • note
    • Mastery was measured by four indices. Accurate knowledge (α = .59): "How accurately do you believe scientists can predict when earthquakes will happen? Do you believe that they can be predicted (4) quite accurately, (3) somewhat accurately, (2) not too accurately, or (1) not at all accurately?" "From what you have heard and read the past few months, what does a small earthquake like the one we had last September tell us about the chances of having a major earthquake? Does it tell us that a major earthquake is (1) more likely to happen, (2) less likely to happen, or (3) tells us nothing?" The responses were coded (score=2) to reflect accurate knowledge if respondents reported that a small earthquake "tells us nothing" about the likelihood of a major earthquake and that scientists can predict "not at all accurately." All other responses were coded as inaccurate (score=1). When the variables are summed, a score of "2" indicates no correct answers, "3" indicates one correct answer, and "4" indicates two correct answers. Interpersonal information sources (November α = .74; February α = .82): "How much have you heard about the earthquake that has been/ was predicted? (3) a great deal, (2) quite a bit, (1) nothing at all." The index includes responses to questions asked about frequency of discussions about the prediction with family and friends. The higher the score, the more the individual claimed to have heard about the problem from other people. Media information sources (α = .66). "How much have you read or heard about the earthquake that was predicted? (4) a great deal, (3) some, (2) not much, (1) nothing at all." The index includes responses for newspapers, television, radio, and newsmagazines. The higher the score, the more the individual claimed to have read or heard about the earthquake prediction. Situational mastery (α = .56). αHow prepared do you feel you are in the event of a major earthquake? Are you (4) very well prepared, (3) somewhat prepared, (2) not very well prepared, or (1) not at all prepared?" "If you personally tried to do something to help protect yourself and your family from a major earthquake, do you think your efforts would make (4) a lot of difference, (3) some difference, (2) not much difference, (1) no difference at all?" "Some people are trying to make their homes safer even if it might not make much difference. Have you done anything that might make your home safer if there were a major earthquake?" The responses for the last item were content coded and then dichotomized into (1) did nothing, (2) did something. For the summed responses, the higher the score the more the individual believed he or she had some control over the situation.
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    • Dominic L. Lasorsa, "The Real and Perceived Effects of 'Amerika,'" Journalism Quarterly 66 (summer 1989): 373-78, 529; Richard M. Perloff, "Ego-Involvement and the Third Person Effect of Television News Coverage," Communication Research 16 (April 1989): 236-62; Jeremy Cohen and Robert G. Davis, "Third-Person Effects and the Differential Impact in Negative Political Advertising," Journalism Quarterly 68 (winter 1991):680-88; L. Erwin Atwood, "Illusions of Media Power: The Third-Person Effect," Journalism Quarterly 71 (summer 1994): 269-81.
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    • Ego-involvement and the third person effect of television news coverage
    • Dominic L. Lasorsa, "The Real and Perceived Effects of 'Amerika,'" Journalism Quarterly 66 (summer 1989): 373-78, 529; Richard M. Perloff, "Ego-Involvement and the Third Person Effect of Television News Coverage," Communication Research 16 (April 1989): 236-62; Jeremy Cohen and Robert G. Davis, "Third-Person Effects and the Differential Impact in Negative Political Advertising," Journalism Quarterly 68 (winter 1991):680-88; L. Erwin Atwood, "Illusions of Media Power: The Third-Person Effect," Journalism Quarterly 71 (summer 1994): 269-81.
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    • Third-person effects and the differential impact in negative political advertising
    • Dominic L. Lasorsa, "The Real and Perceived Effects of 'Amerika,'" Journalism Quarterly 66 (summer 1989): 373-78, 529; Richard M. Perloff, "Ego-Involvement and the Third Person Effect of Television News Coverage," Communication Research 16 (April 1989): 236-62; Jeremy Cohen and Robert G. Davis, "Third-Person Effects and the Differential Impact in Negative Political Advertising," Journalism Quarterly 68 (winter 1991):680-88; L. Erwin Atwood, "Illusions of Media Power: The Third-Person Effect," Journalism Quarterly 71 (summer 1994): 269-81.
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    • Cohen, J.1    Davis, R.G.2
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    • Illusions of media power: The third-person effect
    • Dominic L. Lasorsa, "The Real and Perceived Effects of 'Amerika,'" Journalism Quarterly 66 (summer 1989): 373-78, 529; Richard M. Perloff, "Ego-Involvement and the Third Person Effect of Television News Coverage," Communication Research 16 (April 1989): 236-62; Jeremy Cohen and Robert G. Davis, "Third-Person Effects and the Differential Impact in Negative Political Advertising," Journalism Quarterly 68 (winter 1991):680-88; L. Erwin Atwood, "Illusions of Media Power: The Third-Person Effect," Journalism Quarterly 71 (summer 1994): 269-81.
    • (1994) Journalism Quarterly , vol.71 , Issue.SUMMER , pp. 269-281
    • Atwood, L.E.1
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    • note
    • Self-enhancing illusions were measured by two indices, perceived influence of media content and perceived influence of what other people said about the problem. Responses to questions about influence are illusory because, for the most part, most people have no way of knowing the extent to which they have been influenced. Media influence (α = .81): "How much do you think the news has influenced your opinion about how important the earthquake is? Has the news had (4) a lot of influence, (3) some influence, (2) not much influence, or (1) none at all?" The question was asked for newspapers, television, and radio. Responses for the three media were summed; the higher the score, the greater the perceived influence. Personal influence (α = .78): "Do you think what you talked about with other people has had any influence on how important you think the earthquake problem is? Do you think those talks had (4) a lot of influence, (3) some influence, (2) not much influence, or (1) none at all?" The question was asked for family, friends, and coworkers. The higher the score, the greater the perceived influence of other people.
  • 51
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    • Taylor, "Adjustment"; Taylor, Collins, Skokan, and Aspenwall, "Maintaining."
    • Adjustment
    • Taylor1
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    • 35. Turner, Nigg, and Paz, Waiting; Darrin R. Lehman and Shelley E. Taylor, "Date With an Earthquake: Coping With a Probable Unpredictable Disaster," Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin 13 (December 1987): 546-55; Jerry M. Burger and Michele L. Palmer, "Changes in and Generalization of Unrealistic Optimism Following Experiences with Stressful Events: Reactions to the 1989 California Earthquake," Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin 18 (February 1992): 39-43; Mileti and Fitzpatrick, The Great.
    • Waiting
    • Turner1    Nigg2    Paz3
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    • Date with an earthquake: Coping with a probable unpredictable disaster
    • Turner, Nigg, and Paz, Waiting; Darrin R. Lehman and Shelley E. Taylor, "Date With an Earthquake: Coping With a Probable Unpredictable Disaster," Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin 13 (December 1987): 546-55; Jerry M. Burger and Michele L. Palmer, "Changes in and Generalization of Unrealistic Optimism Following Experiences with Stressful Events: Reactions to the 1989 California Earthquake," Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin 18 (February 1992): 39-43; Mileti and Fitzpatrick, The Great.
    • (1987) Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin , vol.13 , Issue.DECEMBER , pp. 546-555
    • Lehman, D.R.1    Taylor, S.E.2
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    • Changes in and generalization of unrealistic optimism following experiences with stressful events: Reactions to the 1989 California earthquake
    • Turner, Nigg, and Paz, Waiting; Darrin R. Lehman and Shelley E. Taylor, "Date With an Earthquake: Coping With a Probable Unpredictable Disaster," Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin 13 (December 1987): 546-55; Jerry M. Burger and Michele L. Palmer, "Changes in and Generalization of Unrealistic Optimism Following Experiences with Stressful Events: Reactions to the 1989 California Earthquake," Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin 18 (February 1992): 39-43; Mileti and Fitzpatrick, The Great.
    • (1992) Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin , vol.18 , Issue.FEBRUARY , pp. 39-43
    • Burger, J.M.1    Palmer, M.L.2
  • 56
    • 85033085104 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Turner, Nigg, and Paz, Waiting; Darrin R. Lehman and Shelley E. Taylor, "Date With an Earthquake: Coping With a Probable Unpredictable Disaster," Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin 13 (December 1987): 546-55; Jerry M. Burger and Michele L. Palmer, "Changes in and Generalization of Unrealistic Optimism Following Experiences with Stressful Events: Reactions to the 1989 California Earthquake," Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin 18 (February 1992): 39-43; Mileti and Fitzpatrick, The Great.
    • The Great
    • Mileti1    Fitzpatrick2
  • 57
    • 85033083838 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • 36. Gunther and Lasorsa, "Issue Importance"; Gunther, "Attitude Extremity"; Stamm and Dube, "The Relationship."
    • Issue Importance
    • Gunther1    Lasorsa2
  • 58
    • 0041001879 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Gunther and Lasorsa, "Issue Importance"; Gunther, "Attitude Extremity"; Stamm and Dube, "The Relationship."
    • Attitude Extremity
    • Gunther1
  • 59
    • 85033093862 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Gunther and Lasorsa, "Issue Importance"; Gunther, "Attitude Extremity"; Stamm and Dube, "The Relationship."
    • The Relationship
    • Stamm1    Dube2
  • 63
    • 85033085118 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • note
    • The reasons for loss of respondents from the panel were: (1)28.4% refused to participate in the second interview when called or quit during the interview; (2) 22.1% could not be reached after three callback attempts; (3) 18.4% of the original numbers had been disconnected; and (4) the remaining 31.3 % can be termed "polite refusals" (e.g., the respondent said the call was to the "wrong number," or that the interviewer should "call back later," and then the person could not be reached in subsequent callbacks).
  • 64
    • 85033092105 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • note
    • A comparison of the proportions of the full November sample and the panel sample responses for the believability of the prediction question are provided respectively: not believable, 12.6% and 13.6%; not very believable, 27.2% and 27.9%; somewhat believable, 50.7% and 49.1%; very believable, 9.5% and 9.4%. The proportions for the perceived importance of the earthquake problem were: not at all important, 8.4% and 6.1%; not very important, 20.4% and 19.0%; somewhat important, 37.4% and 37.3%; very important, 33.7% and 37.6% for the November and panel respondents, respectively.
  • 66
    • 85033094878 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • note
    • The credibility-loss group was associated negatively with the first function for television credibility and media influence (i.e., self-enhancing illusions) was associated negatively (-.47) with the function; therefore, the credibility-loss group was positively associated with self-enhancing illusions.
  • 69
    • 84925894522 scopus 로고
    • Perception of information sources and likelihood of split ticket voting
    • L. Erwin Atwood and Keith R. Sanders, "Perception of Information Sources and Likelihood of Split Ticket Voting," Journalism Quarterly 52 (autumn 1975): 421-38.
    • (1975) Journalism Quarterly , vol.52 , Issue.AUTUMN , pp. 421-438
    • Atwood, L.E.1    Sanders, K.R.2
  • 78
    • 0040409993 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Perloff, "Ego-Involvement"; Cohen and Davis, "Third-Person"; Atwood "Illusions of Media Power."
    • Ego-involvement
    • Perloff1
  • 79
    • 85033095943 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Perloff, "Ego-Involvement"; Cohen and Davis, "Third-Person"; Atwood "Illusions of Media Power."
    • Third-person
    • Cohen1    Davis2
  • 81
    • 85033074076 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Taylor, "Adjustment"; Taylor, Collins, Skokan, and Aspenwall, "Maintaining."
    • Adjustment
    • Taylor1


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.