Monetary policy evaluation with noisy information

Journal of Monetary Economics

Volumn 50, Issue 3, 2003, Pages 605-631

  Orphanides, Athanasios ^a  

^a FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD   (United States)

Author keywords

Inflation targeting; Natural growth targeting; Observation noise; Optimal control; Policy evaluation; Taylor rule

Indexed keywords

EID: 0038413858     PISSN: 03043932     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/S0304-3932(03)00027-8     Document Type: Article

References (50)

1. Andrews D. Tests for parameter instability and structural change with unknown change point Econometrica 61 4 1993 821-856
2. Bertsekas, D., 1995. Dynamic Programming and Optimal Control, Vol. I. Athena Scientific, Belmont, MA.
3. Blinder A. Central Banking in Theory and Practice 1998 MIT Press Cambridge, MA
4. Boskin, M.J., Dulbergen, E.R., Gordon, R.J., Griliches, Z., Jorgenson, D.W., 1996. Toward a more accurate measure of the cost of living, Final Report to the Senate Finance Committee, December 4.
5. Bryan, M.F., Cecchetti, S.G., Wiggin II, R.L., 1997. Efficient Inflation Estimation, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Working Paper 9707.
6. Bryant, R.C., Hooper, P., Mann, C. (Eds.), 1993. Evaluating Policy Regimes: New Research in Empirical Macroeconomics, Brookings, Washington DC.
7. Christiano, L.J., Eichenbaum, M., Evans, C.L., 1998. Monetary Policy Shocks: What Have We Learned and to What End? NBER Working Paper, No. 6400, February.
8. Cole R. Errors in Provisional Estimates of Gross National Product 1969 National Bureau of Economic Research New York
9. Cole R. Data errors and forecasting accuracy Jacob M. (Ed.), Economic Forecasts and Expectations 1969 National Bureau of Economic Research New York
10. Ehrmann, M., Smets, F., 2001. Uncertain Potential Output: Implications for Monetary Policy. European Central Bank WP No. 59, April.
11. Estrella A. Mishkin F.S. (Ed.), Rethinking the Role of the NAIRU in Monetary Policy: Implications of Model Formulation and Uncertainty Taylor B. Monetary Policy Rules 1999 University of Chicago Chicago
12. Friedman M. Lerner on the economics of control Journal of Political Economy 55 5 1947 405-416
13. Friedman M. Essays in Positive Economics 1953 University of Chicago Chicago
14. Friedman M. The role of monetary policy American Economic Review 58 1 1968 1-17
15. Friedman M. The Optimum Quantity of Money and Other Essays 1969 University of Chicago Chicago
16. Fuhrer J.C. Optimal Monetary Policy and the Sacrifice Ratio. In Fuhrer J. (Ed.), Goals, Guidelines, and Constraints Facing Monetary Policymakers 1994 Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Boston
17. Fuhrer J.C. The (Un)Importance of forward-looking behavior in price specifications Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 29 3 1997 338-350
18. Fuhrer J.C. Moore G.R. Inflation Persistence Quarterly Journal of Economics 110 1 1995 127-159
19. Greenspan, A., 1997. Remarks at the 15th Anniversary Conference of the Center for Economic Policy Research at Stanford University, September 5.
20. Henderson, D., McKibbin, W. J., 1993. A Comparison of Some Basic Monetary Policy Regimes for Open Economies: Implications of Different Degrees of Instrument Adjustment and Wage Persistence. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Vol. 39, pp. 221-318.
21. King M. Changes in UK monetary policy: rules and discretion in practice Journal of Monetary Economics 39 1 1997 81-97
22. King R.G. In Wolman A.L. (Ed.), What Should the Monetary Authority Do When Prices are Sticky? Taylor B. Monetary Policy Rules 1999 University of Chicago Chicago
23. Kohn, D., 1999. Comment. In: Taylor, B. (Ed.), Monetary Policy Rules, University of Chicago, Chicago.
24. Kuttner, K., 1992. Monetary Policy with Uncertain Estimates of Potential Output. Economic Perspectives: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, January/February, pp. 2-15.
25. Levin A. Wieland V. Williams J. Robustness of simple policy rules under model uncertainty. In Taylor B. (Ed.), Monetary Policy Rules 1999 University of Chicago Chicago
26. Lucas R.E. Some international evidence on output-inflation tradeoffs American Economic Review 63 1973 326-334
27. Mankiw, G.N., Shapiro, M.D., 1986. News or noise: an analysis of GNP revisions. Survey of Current Business, May, pp. 20-25.
28. McCallum B.T. Specification of policy rules and performance measures in multicountry stimulation studies Journal of International Money and Finance 13 3 1994 259-275
29. McCallum B.T. Issues in the design of monetary policy rules Taylor B. Woodford M. Handbook of Microeconomies 1999 Elsevier Amsterdam
30. McCallum B.T. Nelson E. Performance of operational policy rules in an estimated semi-classical structural model. In Taylor B. (Ed.) Monetary Policy Rules 1999 University of Chicago Chicago
31. Meltzer A.H. Limits of short-run stabilization policy Economic Inquiry 25 1987 1-14
32. Meltzer A.H. Monetarism: the issues and the outcome Atlantic Economic Journal 26 1 1998 8-31
33. Modigliani F. The monetarist controversy or, should we forsake Stabilization policies? American Economic Review 67 2 1977 1-19
34. Orphanides A. Monetary policy rules based on real-time data American Economic Review 91 4 2001 964-985
35. Orphanides A. van Norden S. The unreliability of output gap estimates in real time Review of Economics and Statistics 84 4 2002 569-583
36. Orphanides, A., Wieland, V., 1998. Price stability and monetary policy effectiveness when nominal interest rates are bounded at zero. Finance and Economics Discussion Series, 98-35, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, June.
37. Orphanides A. Porter R. Reifschneider D. Tetlow R. Finan F. Errors in the measurement of the output gap and the design of monetary policy Journal of Economics and Business 52 1/2 2000 117-141
38. Rotemberg J. Woodford M. Interest-rate rules in an estimated sticky price model In Taylor B. (Ed.), Monetary Policy Rules 1999 University of Chicago Chicago
39. Sargent T.J. Two models of measurements and the investment accelerator Journal of Political Economy 97 2 1989 251-287
40. Sargent T.J. The Conquest of American Inflation 1999 Princeton University Press Princeton
41. Shapiro, M.D., Wilcox, D.W., 1996. Mismeasurement in the consumer price index: an evaluation. NBER Macroeconomic Annual.
42. Taylor J.B. Estimation and control of a macroeconomic model with rational expectation Econometrica 47 5 1979 1267-1286
43. Taylor, J.B., 1993. Discretion versus policy rules in practice. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Vol. 39, December, pp. 195-214.
44. Taylor J.B. The robustness and efficiency of monetary policy rules as guidelines for interest rate setting by the European central bank Journal of Monetary Economics 43 3 1999 655-679
45. Taylor, J.B. (Ed.), 1999b. Monetary Policy Rules. University of Chicago, Chicago.
46. Wieland, V., 1998. Monetary policy under uncertainty about the natural unemployment rate. Finance and Economics Discussion Series, 98-22, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
47. Wieland V. Monetary policy, parameter uncertainty and optimal learning Journal of Monetary Economics 46 1 2000 199-228
48. Williams, J.C., 1999. Simple Rules for Monetary Policy, Finance and Economics Discussion Series, 99-12, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, February.
49. Zellner A. A Statistical analysis of provisional estimates of gross national product and its components, and of personal saving Journal of the American Statistical Association 53 281 1958 54-65
50. Orphanides, A., 1998. Monetary policy evaluation with noisy information. Finance and Economics Discussion Series, 1998-50, Federal Reserve Board, October.