Probability elicitation for belief networks: Issues to consider

Knowledge Engineering Review

Volumn 16, Issue 3, 2001, Pages 255-269

  Renooij, Silja ^a  

^a UTRECHT UNIVERSITY   (Netherlands)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CALIBRATION; COMPUTATIONAL METHODS; DATABASE SYSTEMS; DECISION THEORY; HEURISTIC METHODS; INFORMATION MANAGEMENT; KNOWLEDGE ENGINEERING; NUMERICAL METHODS; PROBABILITY; STATISTICAL METHODS;

BAYESIAN BELIEF NETWORKS; PROBABILITY ELICITATION;

COMPUTER NETWORKS;

EID: 0037871273     PISSN: 02698889     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1017/S0269888901000145     Document Type: Review

References (32)

1. Anderson, JL, 1998, "Embracing uncertainty: the interface of Bayesian statistics and cognitive psychology" Conservation Ecology (online) 2(1) (http://www.consecol.org/vo12/iss1/art2).
2. Baecher, GB, 1998, "Judgemental probability in geotechnical risk assessment" Technical report, prepared for The Office of the Chief, US Army Corps of Engineers (http://www.ence.umd.edu/̃gbaecher/papers.d/judge_prob.d/judge_prob.html).
3. Clemen, RT and Winkler, RL, 1999, "Combining probability distributions from experts in risk analysis" Risk Analysis 19, 187-204.
4. Cooke, RM, 1991, Experts in Uncertainty. Opinion and Subjective Probability in Science Oxford University Press.
5. Coupé, VMH, Van der Gaag, LC and Habbema, JDF, 2000 "Sensitivity analysis: an aid for belief-network quantification" Knowledge Engineering Review 15 1-18.
6. Druzdzel, MJ and Van der Gaag, LC, 1995 "Elicitation of probabilities for belief networks: combining qualitative and quantitative information" Proceedings of the Eleventh Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence 141-148.
7. Edwards, W, 1990, "Unfinished tasks: a research agenda for behavioral decision theory" in RM Hogarth (ed.) Insights in Decision Making The University of Chicago Press.
8. Edwards, W, 1995, "How to estimate thousands of reliable, valid probabilities" Working Notes of the IJCAI Workshop on Building Probabilistic Networks: Where Do the Numbers Come From? (http://www.sis.pitt.edu/̃dsl/hailfinder/probms2.html).
9. Edwards, W, 1998, "Hailfinder. tools for and experiences with Bayesian normative modeling" American Psychologist 53(4) 416-428.
10. Evans, JSt.BT and Over, DE, 1996, Rationality and Reasoning Psychology Press.
11. Fenton, N, 1998, "Probability elicitation and bias" (http://www.dcs.qmul.ac.uk/̃norman/BBNs/BBNs.htm).
12. Gigerenzer, G and Hoffrage, U, 1995, "How to improve Bayesian reasoning without instruction: frequency formats" Psychological Review 102 684-704.
13. Jensen, AL, 1995, "Quantification experience of a DSS for mildew management in winter wheat" Working Notes of the IJCAI Workshop on Building Probabilistic Networks: Where Do the Numbers Come From? 23-31.
14. Kadane, JB and Winkler, RL, 1988, "Separating probability elicitation from utilities" Journal of the American Statistical Association. 83 357-363.
15. Kahneman, D, Slovic, P and Tversky, A (eds.), 1982, Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases Cambridge University Press.
16. Laskey, KB and Mahoney, SM, 1995, "Network fragments: representing knowledge for constructing probabilistic models" Proceedings of the Thirteenth Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence 334-341.
17. Law, AV, Pathak, DS and McCord, MR, 1998, "Health status utility assessment by standard gamble: a comparison of the probability equivalence and the lottery equivalence approaches" Pharmaceutical Research 15(1) 105-109.
18. Mahoney, SM and Laskey, KB, 1996, "Representing and combining partially specified CPTs" Proceedings of the Fifteenth Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence 391-400.
19. Merkhofer, MW, 1987, "Quantifying judgmental uncertainty: methodology, experiences, and insights" IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics 17(5) 741-752.
20. Morgan, MG and Henrion, M, 1990, Uncertainty: A Guide to Dealing with Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy Analysis Cambridge University Press.
21. Pearl, J, 1988, Probabilistic Reasoning in Intelligent Systems: Networks of Plausible Inference Morgan Kaufmann Publishers.
22. Renooij, S and Witteman, CLM, 1999, "Talking probabilities: communicating probabilistic information with words and numbers" International Journal of Approximate Reasoning. 22 169-194.
23. Rutten-van Molken, MP, Bakker, CH, van Doorslaer, EK and van der Linden, S, 1995, "Methodological issues of patient utility measurement: experience from two clinical trials" Medical Care 33(9) 922-937.
24. Saati, TL, 1980, The Analytic Hierarchy Process McGraw-Hill, Inc.
25. Skinner, DC, 1999, Introduction to Decision Analysis Probabilistic Publishing.
26. Stavem, K, 1998, "Quality of life in epilepsy: comparison of four preference measures" Epilepsy Research 29 201-209.
27. Ubel, PA, Loewenstein, G, Scanlon, D and Kamlet, M, 1996 "Individual utilities are inconsistent with rationing choices: a partial explanation of why Oregon's cost-effectiveness list failed" Medical Decision Making 16(2), 108-116.
28. Van der Gaag, LC, Renooij, S, Witteman, CLM, Aleman, BMP and Taal, BG, 1999, "How to elicit many probabilities" Proceedings of the Fifteenth Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence 647-654.
29. Van Lenthe, J, 1993, "ELI: an interactive elicitation technique for subjective probability distributions" Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 55(3) 379-413.
30. Von Neumann, J and Morgenstern, D, 1953, The Theory of Games and Economic Behavior third edition, Wiley.
31. Von Winterfeldt, D and Edwards, W, 1986, Decision Analysis and Behavioral Research Cambridge University Press.
32. Wright, G and Bolger, F, 1992, Expertise and Decision Support Plenum Press.