Dynamic ecosystem models and the evaluation of ecosystem effects of fishing: Can we make meaningful predictions?

Aquatic Conservation: Marine and Freshwater Ecosystems

Volumn 13, Issue 1, 2003, Pages 5-20

  Robinson, L A ^a   Frid, C L J ^a  

^a NEWCASTLE UNIVERSITY   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Ecosystem; Extrinsic forcing; Fishery management; Fishing impacts; Models; Predictions; Reference points; Spatial factors

Indexed keywords

ANTHROPOGENIC EFFECT; ECOSYSTEM MODELING; ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT; FISHERY MANAGEMENT; FISHING;

MAMMALIA;

EID: 0037289526     PISSN: 10527613     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/aqc.506     Document Type: Article

References (77)

1. Alino PM, McManus LT, McManus JW, Nanola CL, Fortes (Jr) MD, Trono GC, Jacinto (Jr) GS. 1993. Initial parameter estimations of a coral reef flat ecosystem in Bolinao, Pangasinan, Northwestern Philippines. In Trophic Models of Aquatic Ecosystems, Christensen V, Pauly D (eds). ICLARM Conference Proceedings 26: 252-258.
2. Anderson KP, Ursin E. 1977. A multispecies extension to the Beverton and Holt theory of fishing, with accounts of phosphorus circulation and primary production. Meddelelser Fra Danmarks Fiskeri-og Havundersogelser, N.S. 7: 319-435.
3. Auster PJ, Malatesta RJ, Larosa S. 1995. Patterns of microhabitat utilisation by mobile megafauna on the southern New England (USA) continental shelf and slope. Marine Ecology Progress Series 12: 77-85.
4. Baretta JW, Ebenhoh W, Ruardij P. 1995. The European regional seas ecosystem model, a complex marine ecosystem model. Netherlands Journal of Sea Research 33: 233-246.
5. Bianchi G, Gislason H, Graham K, Hill L, Koranteng K, Manickchand-Heileman S, Paya I, Sainsbury K, Sanchez F, Jin X, Zwanenburg K. 2000. Impacts of fishing on demersal fish assemblages. ICES Journal of Marine Science 57: 558-571.
6. Booth AJ. 2000. Incorporating the spatial component of fisheries data into stock assessment models. ICES Journal of Marine Science 57: 858-865.
7. Brothers N. 1991. Albatross mortality and associated bait loss in the Japanese longline fishery in the Southern Ocean. Biological Conservation 55: 255-68.
8. Camphuysen CJ, Calvo B, Durinck J, Ensor K, Follestad A, Furness RW, Garthe S, Leaper G, Skov H, Tasker ML, Winter CJN. 1995. Consumption of discards in the North Sea. Final Report EC DG XIV Research Contract BIOECO/93/10. Netherlands Institute for Sea Research, Texel, NIOZ, Rapport 5.
9. Carpenter SR, Kitchell JF, Hodgson JR. 1985. Cascading trophic interactions and lake productivity. BioScience 35: 634-639.
10. Caswell H, Fujiwara M, Brault S. 1999. Declining survival probability threatens the North Atlantic right whale. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 96(6): 3308-3313.
11. Christensen V, 1998, Fishery-induced changes in a marine ecosystem: insight from models of the Gulf of Thailand, Journal of Fish Biology 53 (Supplement A): 128-142.
12. Churchill JH. 1989. The effect of commercial trawling on sediment resuspension and transport over the Middle Atlantic Bight Continental Shelf. Continental Shelf Research 9: 841-864.
13. Collie JS, Spencer PD. 1994. Modelling predator-prey dynamics in a fluctuating environment. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 51: 2665-2672.
14. Collie JS, Escanero GA, Valentine PC. 1997. Effects of bottom fishing on the benthic megafauna of Georges Bank. Marine Ecology Progress Series 155: 159-172.
15. Dayton PK. 1998. Ecology - reversal of the burden of proof in fisheries management AU. Science 279: 821-822.
16. Dayton PK, Thrush S F, Agardy MT, Hofman RJ. 1995. Environmental effects of marine fishing. Aquatic Conservation: Marine and Freshwater Ecosystems 5: 205-232.
17. Frid CLJ, Clark RA. 2000. Long term changes in North Sea benthos: discerning the role of fisheries. In Effects of Fishing on Non-target Species and Habitats, Kaiser MJ, de Groot SJ (eds). Blackwells Scientific Publishers: Oxford; 198-216.
18. Frid CLJ, Huliselan NV. 1996. Far-field control of long-term changes in Northumberland (NW North Sea) coastal zooplankton. ICES Journal of Marine Science 53: 972-977.
19. Frid CLJ, Clark RA, Hall JA. 1999a. Long-term changes in the benthos on a heavily fished ground off the NE coast of England. Marine Ecology Progress Series 188: 13-20.
20. Frid CLJ, Hansson S, Ragnarsson SA, Rijnsdorp A, Steingrimsson SA. 1999b. Changing levels of predation on benthos as a result of exploitation of fish populations. Ambio 28: 578-582.
21. Frid CLJ, Harwood KG, Hall SJ, Hall JA. 2000. Long-term changes in the benthic communities on North Sea fishing grounds. ICES Journal of Marine Science 57: 1303-1309.
22. Furness RW. 1978. Energy requirements of seabird communities: a bioenergetics model. Journal of Animal Ecology 47: 39-53.
23. Gislason H. 1994. Ecosystem effects of fishing activities in the North Sea. Marine Pollution Bulletin 29: 520-527.
24. Gislason H, Rice JC. 1998. Modelling the response of size and diversity spectra of fish assemblages to changes in exploitation. ICES Journal of Marine Science 55: 362-370.
25. Gislason H, Sinclair M, Sainsbury K, O'Boyle R. 2000. Symposium overview: incorporating ecosystem objectives within fisheries management. ICES Journal of Marine Science 57: 468-475.
26. Hall SJ. 1999a. Managing fisheries within ecosystems: can the role of reference points be expanded? Aquatic Conservation: Marine and Freshwater Ecosystems 9: 579-583.
27. Hall SJ. 1999b. The Effects of Fishing on Marine Ecosystems and Communities. Blackwell Science: Oxford.
28. Hays GC, Carr MR, Taylor AH. 1993. The relationship between Gulf-Stream position and copepod abundance derived from the Continuous Plankton Recorder Survey - separating biological signal from sampling noise. Journal of Plankton Research 15: 1359-1373.
29. Heessen HJL, Daan N. 1996. Long term trends in non-target North Sea fish species. ICES Journal of Marine Science 53: 1063-1078.
30. Hollowed AB, Bax N, Beamish R, Collie J, Fogarty M, Livingston P, Pope J, Rice JC. 2000. Are multispecies models an improvement on single-species models for measuring fishing impacts on marine ecosystems? ICES Journal of Marine Science 57: 707-719.
31. ICES. 1998. Report of the Working Group on the Ecosystem Effects of Fishing Activities. ICES, Copenhagen, ICES CM 1998/ACFM/ACME:01 Ref.:E, 263pp.
32. ICES. 2000. Report of the Working Group on Ecosystem Effects of Fishing Activities. ICES, Copenhagen, ICES CM 2000/ACME:02 Ref.: ACFM +E, 93pp.
33. Jarre-Teichmann A. 1998. The potential role of mass balance models for the management of upwelling ecosystems. Ecological Applications 8(Supplement): s93-s103.
34. Jennings S, Dinmore TA, Duplisea DE, Warr KJ, Lancaster JE. 2001. Trawling disturbance can modify benthic production processes. Journal of Animal Ecology 70(3): 459-475.
35. Jones R. 1982. Species interactions in the North Sea. Canadian Special Publication of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 59: 48-63.
36. Kaiser MJ, Spencer BE. 1994. Fish scavenging behaviour in recently trawled areas. Marine Ecology Progress Series 112: 41-49.
37. Kaiser MJ, Spencer BE. 1995. Survival of by-catch from a beam trawl. Marine Ecology Progress Series 126: 31-38.
38. Kaiser MJ, de Groot SJ (eds). 2000. Effects of Fishing on Non-target Species and Habitats. Blackwell Scientific: Oxford.
39. Kröncke I, Dippner JW, Heyen H, Zeiss B. 1998. Long-term changes in macrofaunal communities off Norderney (East Frisia, Germany) in relation to climate variability. Marine Ecology Progress Series 167: 25-36.
40. Law R. 2000. Fishing, selection, and phenotypic evolution. ICES Journal of Marine Science 57: 659-668.
41. Le Gall AC, Hydes DJ, Kelly-Gerreyn BA, Slinn DJ. 2000. Development of a 2D horizontal biogeochemical model for the Irish Sea DYMONIS. ICES Journal of Marine Science 57: 1050-1059.
42. Livingston PA, Jurado-Molina J. 2000. A multispecies virtual population analysis of the eastern Bering Sea. ICES Journal of Marine Science 57: 294-299.
43. May RM, Beddington JR, Clark CW, Holt SJ, Laws RM. 1979. Management of multispecies fisheries. Science 205: 267-276.
44. Messieh S. 1991. Fluctuations in Atlantic herring succession in relation to organic enrichment and pollution of the marine environment. Oceanography and Marine Biology Annual Review 16: 229-311.
45. Millner RS, Whiting CL. 1996. Long-term changes in growth and population abundance of sole in the North Sea from 1940 to the present, ICES Journal of Marine Science 53: 1185-1195.
46. Moll A. 2000. Assessment of three-dimensional physical-biological ECOHAM1 simulations by quantified validation for the North Sea with ICES and ERSEM data. ICES Journal of Marine Science 57: 1060-1069.
47. NRC. 1999, Sustaining Marine Fisheries. National Academy Press: Washington, DC.
48. Opitz S. 1993. A quantitative model of the trophic interactions in a Caribbean coral reef ecosystem. In Trophic Models of Aquatic Ecosystems, Christensen V, Pauly D (eds). ICLARM Conference Proceedings 26: 259-267.
49. Pope JG, Macer CT. 1996. An evaluation of the stock structure of North Sea cod, haddock, and whiting since 1920, together with a consideration of the impacts of fisheries and predation effects on their biomass and recruitment, ICES Journal of Marine Science 53: 1157-1169.
50. Pope JG, MacDonald DS, Daan N, Reynolds JD, Jennings S. 2000. Gauging the impact of fishing mortality on non-target species. ICES Journal of Marine Science 57: 689-696.
51. Prins TC, Smaal AC. 1990. Benthic-pelagic coupling: the release of inorganic nutrients by an intertidal bed of Mytilus edulis. In Trophic Interactions in the Marine Environment, Barnes, M, Gibson, RN (eds). Aberdeen University Press: Aberdeen; 89-103.
52. Radford P J, Blackford JC. 1996. Interdisciplinary methods for successful ecological simulation. Ecological Modelling 86: 265-270.
53. Rice JC. 1999. How complex should operational ecosystem objectives be? ICES C.M. Z:07.
54. Riemann B, Hoffmann E. 1991. Ecological consequences of dredging and bottom trawling in the Limfjord, Denmark. Marine Ecological Progress Series 69: 171-178.
55. Rijnsdorp AD, van Leeuwen PI. 1996. Changes in growth of North Sea plaice since 1950 in relation to density, eutrophication, beam-trawl effort, and temperature. ICES Journal of Marine Science 53: 1199-1213.
56. Rogers SI, Millner RS. 1996. Factors affecting the annual abundance and regional distribution of English inshore demersal fish populations: 1973 to 1995. ICES Journal of Marine Science 53: 1094-1112.
57. Rowe GT, Clifford CH, Smith KL (Jr), Hamilton PL. 1975. Benthic nutrient regeneration and its coupling to primary productivity in coastal waters. Nature 225: 215-217.
58. Rumohr H, Krost P. 1991. Experimental evidence of damage to benthos by bottom trawling, with special reference to Arctica islandica. Helgoländer Meeresuntersuchungen 33: 340-345.
59. Sánchez F, Olaso I. 1999. Fisheries impacts in then Cantabrian Sea using a mass-balance model. WGECO 1999/10.
60. Schneider DC, Walters R, Thrush S, Dayton P. 1997, Scale-up of ecological experiments: density variation in the mobile bivalve Macomona liliana. Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology 216(1-2): 129-152.
61. Schwinghamer P, Guigne JY, Siu WC. 1996. Quantifying the impact of trawling on benthic habitat structure using high-resolution acoustics and chaos theory. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Science 53: 288-296.
62. Serchuk FM, Kirkegaard E, Daan N, 1996. Status and trends of the major roundfish, flatfish, and pelagic fish stocks in the North Sea: thirty-year overview. ICES Journal of Marine Science 53: 1130-1145.
63. Shannon LJ, Cury PM, Jarre A, 2000. Modelling effects of fishing in the Southern Benguela ecosystem. ICES Journal of Marine Science 57: 720-722.
64. Siland H, Skogen MD. 2000. Validation of a three-dimensional biophysical model using nutrient observations in the North Sea, ICES Journal of Marine Science 57: 816-823.
65. Sparholt H. 1995. Using the MSVPA/MSFOR model to estimate the right-hand side of the Ricker curve for Baltic cod. ICES Journal of Marine Science 52: 819-826.
66. Spencer PD, Collie JS. 1995, A simple predator-prey model of exploited marine fish populations incorporating alternative prey. ICES Journal of Marine Science 53: 615-628.
67. Tasker ML, Knapman PA, Laffoley D, 2000. Effects of fishing on non-target species and habitats: identifying key nature conservation issues. In Effects of Fishing on Non-target Species and Habitats, Kaiser M J, de Groot SJ (eds). Blackwell Scientific Publishers: Oxford; 281-289.
68. Taylor AH, Colebrook JM, Stephens JA, Baker NG, 1992. Latitudinal displacements of the Gulf-Stream and the abundance of plankton in the NorthEast Atlantic. Journal of the Marble Biological Association of the United Kingdom 72: 919-921.
69. Thrush SH, Hewitt JE, Cummings VJ, Dayton PK. 1995. The impact of habitats disturbance by scallop dredging on marine benthic communities: what can be predicted from the results of experiments? Marine Ecology Progress Series 129(1-3): 141-150.
70. Thrush SF, Schneider DC, Legendre P, Whitlatch RB, Dayton PK, Hewitt JE, Hines AH, Cummings VJ, Lawrie SM, Grant J, Pridmore RD, Turner SJ, McArdle BH. 1997. Scaling-up from experiments to complex ecological systems: Where to next? Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology. 216(1-2): 243-254.
71. Tjelmeland S, Bogstad B. 1998. Multispec - a review of multispecies modelling project for the Barents Sea. Fisheries Research 37: 127-142.
72. Triantafyllou G, Petihakis G, Dounas C, Koutsoubas D, Arvanitidis C, Eleftheriou A. 2000. Temporal variations in benthic communities and their response to physiochemical forcing: a numerical approach. ICES Journal of Marine Science 57: 1507-1516.
73. Tuck ID, Hall SJ, Robertson MR, Armstrong E, Basford DJ. 1998. Effects of physical trawling disturbance in a previously unfished sheltered Scottish sea loch. Marine Ecology Progress Series 162: 227-242.
74. Underwood AJ. 1996. Detection, interpretation, prediction and management of environmental disturbances - some roles for experimental marine ecology. Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology 200: 1-27.
75. Van der Meer J, Leopold MF. 1995. Assessing the population of the European storm petrel (Hydrobates pelagicus) using spatial autocorrelation between counts from segments of criss-cross ship transects. ICES Journal of Marine Science 52: 809-818.
76. Walters CJ, Stocker M, Tyler AV, Westreim SJ. 1986. Interaction between Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) and herring (Clupea harencjus pallasi) in the Hectate Strait, British Columbia. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 43: 830-837.
77. Yodzis P. 2001. Must top predators be culled for the sake of fisheries? Trends in Ecology and Evolution 16: 78-84.