Better forecasts, better plans, better results

Research Technology Management

Volumn 46, Issue 1, 2003, Pages 47-58

  Vanston, John H ^a  

^a Technology Futures Inc   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

DECISION MAKING; EXTRAPOLATION; FORECASTING;

MARKET DEMAND;

INDUSTRIAL MANAGEMENT;

EID: 0037241926     PISSN: 08956308     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/08956308.2003.11671544     Document Type: Article

References (23)

1. Vanston John H. Technology Forecasting: An Aid to Effective Technology Management. Austin, TX: Technology Futures, Inc., 1988.
2. Porter, Alan L., Roper, A. Thomas, Mason, Thomas W., Rossini, Frederick A., and Banks, Jerry. Forecasting end Management of Technology, New York: Wiley Interscience, 1991.
3. Lenz, Ralph L., Jr. "Elements of Technological Forecasting by Trend Extrapolation." In Technology Forecasting. J. R. Bright and M. E. F. Schoeman, Eds. Canoga Park, CA: XYZYX Information Corporation, 1970.
4. Vanston, Lawrence K. and Vanston. John H. Introduction to Technology Market Forecasting. Austin, TX: Technology Futures, Inc., 1996.
5. Martino, Joseph P. Technology Forecasting for Decision Makers. 2nd Ed., New York: North Holland, 1983.
6. "Scientific American Interview with Gordon Moore." Scientific American, September 1997. Although most authors state the law as a doubling every 18 months, Moore, himself, has stated that he has never used that figure. His first mention of the "law" was in a 1965 article in Electronics magazine in which he postulated a doubling time of one year. In 1975. he revised his projected time to two years and, in 1997, he stated that he still believed that two years was the proper doubling factor.
7. Moore, Gordon. Personal conversation with the author. Intel Headquarters, 1979. Figure 1 is an updated version of a handwritten graph by Gordon Moore provided to the author in 1979.
8. Stix, Gary. "Getting More from Moore's." Scientific American. April 2001, pp. 32-36.
9. Vanston, Lawrence K. The Impacts of Competition Chid Technology on Local Exchange Outside Plant Assets. Austin, TX: Technology Futures, Inc., 2001.
10. Bright, James R. Practical Teohnology Forecasting. Austin, TX: Technology Futures. Inc., 1978.
11. Lenz, Ralph L. "Technology Trend Analysis." Presentation developed for Technology Forecasting Workshops conducted 1978-1992.
12. The impact wheel concept was originated by Joel Barker of Infinity, Ltd.
13. Kroppendorf, Klaus. Content Analysis: An Introduction to Its Methodology, Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications. 1981.
14. Stevensen, Ann. The Stakeholder Strategy: Prfiting from Collaborative Business Relationships. San Francisco: Berren-Koehler, 1998.
15. Ghosh, Shubho. "Wireless Telephony." In Communications Technology Update. 7th Edition, A. E. Grant and J. H. Meadows, Eds. Boston: Focal Press, 2000.
16. Lenz, Ralph L. A Critical Examination of the Future Utilization and Application of Celhdar Technology in Telecommunications. Austin, TX: Technology Futures, Inc., 1988.
17. Lenz, Ralph L. Wireless Telephony Market Update: A Quantitalive Projection of U.S Markets. Austin, TX: Technology Futures, Inc., 1991.
18. Vanston, John H. and Frederick, David O. Principles for Electric Power Policy. Westport, CT: Quorum Books, 1984.
19. Olaf, Helmer. "Analysis of the Future: The Delphi Method." In Technology, Forecasting for Industry and Government. James R. Bright, Ed., Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall, 1968
20. Vanston, John H. Knowledge Management. White Paper. Austin. TX: Technology Futures. Inc., 2000.
21. Ayers, Robert U. On Technology Forecasting. Harmon-on Hudson, NY: Hudson Institute, 1966.
22. Lenz, Ralph L. Graph prepared for Technology Forecasting Workshop conducted by Technology Futures, Inc., 1993.
23. Vanston, John H. Winning by Coming in Second. White Paper Austin, TX: Technology Futures, Inc., 1998. Available online: http//www.tfi.com