Determinants of human population growth

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences

Volumn 357, Issue 1425, 2002, Pages 1197-1210

  Lutz, Wolfgang ^a   Qiang, Ren ^a  

^a INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR APPLIED SYSTEMS ANALYSIS   (Austria)

Author keywords

Demographic transition; Human fertility; Population density; World population growth

Indexed keywords

BIRTH RATE; DEMOGRAPHY; POPULATION GROWTH;

EID: 0037195014     PISSN: 09628436     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2002.1121     Document Type: Article

References (45)

1. Adelman, I. 1963 An econometric analysis of population growth. Am. Econ. Rev. 53, 314-339.
2. Beaver, S. 1975 Demographic transition theory reinterpreted. Lexington, MA: Lexington Books.
3. Bongaarts, J. & Potter, R. 1983 Fertility, biology, and behavior. New York: Academic Press.
4. Cannan, E. 1895 The probability of a cessation of the growth of population in England and Wales during the next century. Econ. J. 5, 505-515.
5. Cleland, J. 1996 A regional review of fertility trends in developing countries: 1960 to 1995. In The future population of the world: what can we assume today?, revised edn (ed. W. Lutz), pp. 47-72. London: Earthscan.
6. Coale, A. J. 1973 The demographic transition. In Proc. International Population Conf., vol. 1, pp. 53-71. Liege, Belgium: International Union for the Scientific Study of Population.
7. Coale, A. & Treadway, R. 1979 A summary of changing fertility in the provinces of Europe. Paper presented to the Summary Conference on European Fertility, Princeton, New Jersey, USA.
8. Coale, A. & Watkins, S. (eds) 1986 The decline of fertility in Europe. Princeton University Press.
9. Collver, A., Speare Jr, A. & Liu, P. K. C. 1967 Local variations of fertility in Taiwan. Popul. Stud. 20, 329-342.
10. Cook, R. C. 1962 How many people have ever lived on earth? Popul. Bull. 18, 1-19.
11. Cutright, P. & Kelly, W. R. 1978 Modernization and other determinants of national birth, death, and growth rates: 1958-1972. Comp. Stud. Sociol. 1, 17-46.
12. Davis, K. 1954 The world demographic transition. Ann. Am. Acad. Polit. Social Sci. 237, 1-11.
13. Davis, K. 1991 Population and resources: fact and interpretation. In Resources, environment and population: present knowledge (ed. K. Davis & M. S. Bernstam), pp. 1-21. Oxford University Press.
14. Firebaugh, G. 1982 Population density and fertility in 22 Indian villages. Demography 19, 481-494.
15. Fischer, G., Van Velthuizen, H. T. & Nachtergaele, F. O. 1998 Global agro-ecological zones assessment: methodology and results. Interim Report, IR-98-110. Laxenburg, Austria: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
16. Frejka, T. 1994 Long-range global population projections: lessons learned. In The future population of the world: what can we assume today? (ed. W. Lutz), pp. 3-15. London: Earthscan.
17. Heer, D. M. 1966 Economic development and fertility. Demography 3, 423-444.
18. Hermalin, W. I. & Lavely, W. R. 1979 Agricultural development and fertility change in Taiwan. Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Population Association of America in Philadelphia, PA, USA, April 1979.
19. Hicks, W. 1974 Economic development and fertility change in Mexico, 1950-1970. Demography 11, 407-421.
20. Janowitz, B. S. 1971 An empirical study of the effects of socioeconomic development on fertility rate. Demography 8, 319-330.
21. Kohler, H.-P. 1997 Learning in social networks and contraceptive choice. Demography 34, 369-383.
22. Leet, D. R. 1977 Interrelations of population density, urbanization, literacy, and fertility. Explor. Econ. Hist. 14, 388-401.
23. Leslie, P. H. 1945 On the use of matrices in certain population mathematics. Biometrika 33, 183-212.
24. Lockwood, M. 1997 Sons of the soil? Population growth, environmental change and men's reproductive intentions in northern Nigeria. Int. J. Popul. Geogr. 3, 305-322.
25. Lutz, W. (ed.) 1994 Population-development-environment: understanding their interactions in Mauritius. Berlin: Springer.
26. Lutz, W. (ed.) 1996 The future population of the world: what can we assume today? Revised edn. London: Earthscan.
27. Lutz, W., Sanderson, W. & Scherbov, S. 1996 Probabilistic population projections based on expert opinion. In The future population of the world: what can we assume today?, revised edn (ed. W. Lutz), pp. 397-428. London: Earthscan.
28. Lutz, W., Sanderson, W. & Scherbov, S. 1997 Doubling of world population unlikely. Nature 387, 803-805.
29. Lutz, W., Sanderson, W. & Scherbov, S. 2001 The end of world population growth. Nature 412, 543-545.
30. Mason, K. O. 1997 Explaining fertility transitions. Demography 34, 443-454.
31. National Research Council (Panel on Population Projections, ed. J. Bongaarts & R. A. Bulatao) 2000 Beyond six billion: forecasting the world's population. Washington, DC: National Academy Press.
32. Notestein, F. W. 1945 Population-the long view. In Food for the world (ed. T. W. Schultz), pp. 36-57. University of Chicago Press.
33. O'Neill, B. C., Scherbov, S. & Lutz, W. 1999 The long-term effect of the timing of fertility decline on population size. Popul. Devel. Rev. 25, 749-756.
34. O'Neill, B. C., MacKellar, F. L. & Lutz, W. 2001 Population and climate change. Cambridge University Press.
35. Population Census Office under the State Council, Department of Population, Social, Science and Technology Statistics, & National Bureau of Statistics of the People's Republic of China 2001 Major figures on 2000 population census of China. Beijing: China Statistics Press.
36. Tabah, L. 1989 From one demographic transition to another. Popul. Bull. United Nations 28, 1-24.
37. United Nations 2001 World population prospects. The 2000 revision. New York: United Nations.
38. US Bureau of the Census 2000 International database, 10 May 2000 edition. See http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/worldpop.html.
39. Van de Walle, E. 1992 Fertility transition, conscious choice and numeracy. Demography 29, 487-502.
40. Westoff, C. F. 1996 Reproductive preferences and future fertility in developing countries. In The future population of the world: what can we assume today?, revised edn (ed. W. Lutz), pp. 73-87. London: Earthscan.
41. Whelpton, P. K. 1936 An empirical method of calculating future population. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 31, 457-473.
42. World Bank 2000 World development indicators (CD-ROM). Washington, DC: The World Bank.
43. World Bank 2001 World development indicators (CD-ROM). Washington, DC: The World Bank.
44. Yasuba, Y. 1962 Birth rates of the white population in the United States, 1800-1860. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins Press.
45. Yin Hua & Lin Xiaohong (Data user service, CPIRC/UNFPA) 1996 Population and socioeconomic data of China by province. Data User Service Series No. 7. Beijing: China Population Publishing House.