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Volumn 298, Issue 5595, 2002, Pages 1020-1023

Waves of larch budmoth outbreaks in the European alps

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

BIODIVERSITY; ECOSYSTEMS;

EID: 0036829686     PISSN: 00368075     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1126/science.1075182     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (160)

References (29)
  • 18
    • 2142717951 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • See supplemental data on Science Online
    • See supplemental data on Science Online.
  • 20
    • 2142772264 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • note
    • We analyzed outbreak data that originated from maps of visually detected defoliation in the Central European Alps between 1961 and 1998 (16). The surveys were made in cooperation with the forest administration agencies of the Alpine countries (France, Italy, Switzerland, and Austria). Maps were digitized to show the presence or absence of defoliation in each 1 km x 1 km cell. These data were aggregated to the proportion of defoliation in 20 km x 20 km grid cells as a surrogate for local abundance (18). Grid cells were excluded from further analyses if the maximum defoliation was less than 1% or if >90% of the years were completely without defoliation. This was done to prevent problems arising from analysis of time series dominated by zero values.
  • 23
    • 2142658473 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • note
    • ij,θ/h) (2) Hence, we estimate spatial correlation for time lags of 0, 1, and 2 years and distance lags up to ±600 km. An R/S-plus library for calculating the metrics is available upon request (onbl@psu.edu).
  • 26
    • 2142715050 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • note
    • i,t denote predispersal abundances. The quantities H̄ and P̄ are the neighborhood host and parasitoid densities (over the eight nearest neighboring patches). The lattice is assumed to have absorbing boundaries. We discarded the first 2000 generations of each simulation; the spatiotemporal patterns from the last 500 generations were then analyzed using the same method as used in the larch budmoth data analysis. The local dynamics for the moth-plant quality model are identical to those in the model proposed by Turchin (25). The moth dispersal stage is again modeled according to Eq. 5.
  • 29
    • 2142702014 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • note
    • Supported by USDA, the Academy of Finland, and the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis (funded by NSF, the University of California, and UC Santa Barbara). We thank A. Satake, P. Tobin, and three anonymous reviewers for comments on earlier versions of the manuscript.


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.