메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 37, Issue 5, 2002, Pages 1365-1386

An approach to forecasting health expenditures, with application to the U.S. Medicare system

Author keywords

Demography; Forecasting; Health expenditures; Medicare

Indexed keywords

ARTICLE; ECONOMIC ASPECT; FERTILITY; FORECASTING; HEALTH CARE COST; MEDICARE; MORTALITY; PROBABILITY; SIMULATION; STOCHASTIC MODEL; UNITED STATES;

EID: 0036813117     PISSN: 00179124     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/1475-6773.01112     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (44)

References (30)
  • 1
    • 0025528426 scopus 로고
    • Stochastic methods in population forecasting
    • Alho, J. M. 1990. "Stochastic methods in population forecasting." International Journal of Forecasting 6: 521-30.
    • (1990) International Journal of Forecasting , vol.6 , pp. 521-530
    • Alho, J.M.1
  • 2
    • 0000237682 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Comparing and assessing time series methods for forecasting age-specific demographic rates
    • Bell, W. 1997. "Comparing and assessing time series methods for forecasting age-specific demographic rates."Journal of Official Statistics 13: 279-303.
    • (1997) Journal of Official Statistics , vol.13 , pp. 279-303
    • Bell, W.1
  • 5
    • 0041193223 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Are medical prices declining? Evidence from heart attack treatments
    • Cutler, D., M. McClellan, J. Newhouse, and D. Remler. 1998. "Are medical prices declining? Evidence from heart attack treatments." Quarterly Journal of Economics 113 (4): 991-1024.
    • (1998) Quarterly Journal of Economics , vol.113 , Issue.4 , pp. 991-1024
    • Cutler, D.1    McClellan, M.2    Newhouse, J.3    Remler, D.4
  • 6
    • 33750438360 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Demographic and medical care spending: Standard and non-standard effects
    • edited by A. Auerbach and R. Lee. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press
    • Cutler, D., and L. Sheiner. 2000. "Demographic and medical care spending: Standard and non-standard effects." In Demography and Fiscal Policy, edited by A. Auerbach and R. Lee, pp. 253-91. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
    • (2000) Demography and Fiscal Policy , pp. 253-291
    • Cutler, D.1    Sheiner, L.2
  • 7
    • 0021401219 scopus 로고
    • Though much is taken: Reflections on aging, health, and medical care
    • Fuchs, V. 1984. "Though much is taken: Reflections on aging, health, and medical care." Milbank Quarterly 62: 143-66.
    • (1984) Milbank Quarterly , vol.62 , pp. 143-166
    • Fuchs, V.1
  • 8
    • 33847676571 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Health Care Financing Administration. 1998. 1998 National Health Expenditures. Data files available at http://www.hcfa.gov/stats/nhe-oact/.
    • (1998) 1998 National Health Expenditures
  • 9
    • 0028580785 scopus 로고
    • Reductions in mortality at advanced ages: Several decades of evidence from 27 countries
    • Kannisto, V., J. Lauritsen, A. R. Thatcher, and J. Vaupel. 1994. "Reductions in mortality at advanced ages: Several decades of evidence from 27 countries." Population and Development Review 20 (4): 793-810.
    • (1994) Population and Development Review , vol.20 , Issue.4 , pp. 793-810
    • Kannisto, V.1    Lauritsen, J.2    Thatcher, A.R.3    Vaupel, J.4
  • 10
    • 0000496873 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Ex-post error in official population forecasts in industrialized countries
    • Keilman, N. 1997. "Ex-post error in official population forecasts in industrialized countries."Journal of Official Statistics (Statistics Sweden) 13 (3): 245-77.
    • (1997) Journal of Official Statistics (Statistics Sweden) , vol.13 , Issue.3 , pp. 245-277
    • Keilman, N.1
  • 11
    • 0019697606 scopus 로고
    • The limits of population forecasting
    • Keyfitz, N. 1981. "The limits of population forecasting." Population and Development Review 7 (4): 579-93.
    • (1981) Population and Development Review , vol.7 , Issue.4 , pp. 579-593
    • Keyfitz, N.1
  • 12
    • 0027652326 scopus 로고
    • Modeling and forecasting the time series of U.S. fertility: Age patterns, range, and ultimate level
    • Lee, R. D. 1993. "Modeling and forecasting the time series of U.S. fertility: Age patterns, range, and ultimate level." International Journal of Forecasting 9: 187-202.
    • (1993) International Journal of Forecasting , vol.9 , pp. 187-202
    • Lee, R.D.1
  • 13
    • 84950457501 scopus 로고
    • Modeling and forecasting U.S. mortality
    • and "Rejoinder," same issue, pp. 674-5
    • Lee, R., and L. Carter. 1992. "Modeling and Forecasting U.S. Mortality."Journal of the American Statistical Association 87 (419): 659-71, and "Rejoinder," same issue, pp. 674-5.
    • (1992) Journal of the American Statistical Association , vol.87 , Issue.419 , pp. 659-671
    • Lee, R.1    Carter, L.2
  • 14
    • 0035512765 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Evaluating the performance of the Lee-Carter mortality forecasts
    • Lee, R., and T. Miller. 2001. "Evaluating the performance of the Lee-Carter mortality forecasts." Demography 38: 537-49.
    • (2001) Demography , vol.38 , pp. 537-549
    • Lee, R.1    Miller, T.2
  • 15
    • 84950967036 scopus 로고
    • Stochastic population forecasts for the United States: Beyond high, medium, and low
    • Lee, R., and S. Tuljapurkar. 1994. "Stochastic population forecasts for the United States: Beyond high, medium, and low." Journal of the American Statistical Association 89 (428): 1175-89.
    • (1994) Journal of the American Statistical Association , vol.89 , Issue.428 , pp. 1175-1189
    • Lee, R.1    Tuljapurkar, S.2
  • 16
    • 3042856214 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Population forecasting for fiscal planning: Issues and innovations
    • edited by A. Auerbach and R. Lee. Cambridge University Press
    • Lee, R., and S. Tuljapurkar. 2000. "Population Forecasting for Fiscal Planning: Issues and Innovations." In Demography and Fiscal Policy, edited by A. Auerbach and R. Lee, pp. 7-57. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
    • (2000) Demography and Fiscal Policy , pp. 7-57
    • Lee, R.1    Tuljapurkar, S.2
  • 17
    • 0011788258 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Uncertain demographic futures and government budgets in the U.S.
    • Manuscript of the Department of Demography, University of California at Berkeley, Chicago
    • Lee, R., S. Tuljapurkar, and R. Edwards. 1998. "Uncertain demographic futures and government budgets in the U.S." Manuscript of the Department of Demography, University of California at Berkeley; presented at the 1998 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America, Chicago.
    • (1998) 1998 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America
    • Lee, R.1    Tuljapurkar, S.2    Edwards, R.3
  • 18
    • 0021709801 scopus 로고
    • The use of medicare services in the last two years of life
    • Lubitz, J., and R. Prihoba. 1984. "The use of medicare services in the last two years of life." Health Care Financing Review 5: 117-31.
    • (1984) Health Care Financing Review , vol.5 , pp. 117-131
    • Lubitz, J.1    Prihoba, R.2
  • 20
    • 0000401126 scopus 로고
    • Frailty and forecasts of active life expectancy in the United States
    • edited by K. G. Manton, B. H. Singer, and R. M. Suzman, New York: Springer-Verlag
    • Manton, K. G., E. Stallard, and K. Liu. 1993. "Frailty and forecasts of active life expectancy in the United States." In Forecasting the Health of the Elderly Population, edited by K. G. Manton, B. H. Singer, and R. M. Suzman, pp. 159-81. New York: Springer-Verlag.
    • (1993) Forecasting the Health of the Elderly Population , pp. 159-181
    • Manton, K.G.1    Stallard, E.2    Liu, K.3
  • 21
    • 0000473954 scopus 로고
    • Medical demography: Interaction of disability dynamics and mortality
    • edited by L. G. Martin and S. H. Preston. Washington, DC: National Academy Press
    • Manton, K. G., and E. Stallard. 1994. "Medical demography: Interaction of disability dynamics and mortality." In Demography of Aging, edited by L. G. Martin and S. H. Preston, pp. 217-78. Washington, DC: National Academy Press.
    • (1994) Demography of Aging , pp. 217-278
    • Manton, K.G.1    Stallard, E.2
  • 22
    • 0035344273 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Increasing longevity and medicare expenditures
    • Miller, T. 2001. "Increasing longevity and medicare expenditures." Demography 38: 215-26.
    • (2001) Demography , vol.38 , pp. 215-226
    • Miller, T.1
  • 24
    • 0003626713 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Tables 17 and 18
    • Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. 2000. OECD Health Data 2000, Tables 17 and 18, [accessed June 20, 2001]. Available at http://www.oecd. org/els/health.
    • (2000) OECD Health Data 2000
  • 25
    • 0032431118 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The effects of health changes on projections of health service needs for the elderly population of the United States
    • Singer, B. H., and K. G. Manton. 1998. "The effects of health changes on projections of health service needs for the elderly population of the United States." Proceedings of the National Academy of Science 95: 15618-22.
    • (1998) Proceedings of the National Academy of Science , vol.95 , pp. 15618-15622
    • Singer, B.H.1    Manton, K.G.2
  • 26
    • 0034636481 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The effect of longevity on spending for acute and long-term care
    • Spillman, B. C., and J. Lubitz. 2000. "The effect of longevity on spending for acute and long-term care." New England Journal of Medicine 342: 1409-15.
    • (2000) New England Journal of Medicine , vol.342 , pp. 1409-1415
    • Spillman, B.C.1    Lubitz, J.2
  • 29
    • 0034660649 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A universal pattern of mortality decline in the G7 countries
    • Tuljapurkar, S., N. Li, and C. Boe. 2000. "A universal pattern of mortality decline in the G7 countries." Nature 405: 789-92.
    • (2000) Nature , vol.405 , pp. 789-792
    • Tuljapurkar, S.1    Li, N.2    Boe, C.3
  • 30
    • 0032608194 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Uses and abuses of long-term medicare cost estimates
    • White, J. 1999. "Uses and abuses of long-term medicare cost estimates." Health Affairs 18 (1): 63-79.
    • (1999) Health Affairs , vol.18 , Issue.1 , pp. 63-79
    • White, J.1


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.