Learning to forecast price

Economic Inquiry

Volumn 40, Issue 4, 2002, Pages 556-573

  Kelley, Hugh ^a   Friedman, Daniel ^b  

^a INDIANA UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 0036794920     PISSN: 00952583     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1093/ei/40.4.556     Document Type: Article

References (33)

1. Akerlof, G., and J. Yellen. "Can Small Deviations from Rationality Make Significant Differences to Economic Equilibria?" American Economic Review, 75, 1985, 4.
2. Binmore, K. "Modeling Rational Players, Part I." Economics and Philosophy, 3, 1987, 179-214.
3. Brehmer, B. "In One Word, Not from Experience." Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 1, 1980, 110-28.
4. Brown, G. "Iterated Solution of Games by Fictitious Play." Activity Analysis of Production and Allocation, New York: Wiley, 1951.
5. Busemeyer, J.R., I.J. Myung, and M.A. McDaniel. "Cue Competition Effects: Theoretical Implications for Adaptive Network Learning Models." Psychological Science, 4, 1993, 196-202.
6. Camerer, Colin. "Experiments on Game Theory." Draft manuscript, Caltech Division of Humanities and Social Sciences, 1998.
7. Cournot, A. "Researches sur les Principes Mathematiques de la Theorie Richesses." English edition, N. Bacon (ed.) 1897, Researches into the Mathematical Principles of the Theory of Wealth. New York: Macmillan, 1838.
8. DeLong, J.B., A. Shleifer, L. Summers, and R.J. Waldmann. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets." Journal of Political Economy, 98(4), 1990, 703-38.
9. Dwyer G. Jr., A. Williams, R. Battalio, and T. Mason. "Tests of Rational Expectations in a Stark Setting." Economic Journal, 103, 1993, 586-601.
10. Evans, George W., and Seppo Honkapohja. "Learning Dynamics," in Handbook of Macroeconomics, edited by J. Taylor and M. Woodford. New York: Elsevier, 1997.
11. Friedman, D., and D. Massaro. "Understanding Variability in Binary and Continuous Choice." Psychonomic Bulletin and Review, 5(3), 1998, 370-89.
12. Friedman, D., and S. Sunder. "Experimental Methods: A Primer for Economists." Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1994.
13. Fudenberg, D., and D. Kreps. "A Theory of Learning, Experimentation, and Equilibrium in Games." Mimeo, MIT, 1998.
14. Garner, A. "Experimental Evidence on the Rationality of Intuitive Forecasters." Research in Experimental Economics, 2, 1982, 113-28.
15. Gluck, M.A., and G.H. Bower. "From Conditioning to Category Learning: An Adaptive Network Model." Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 117, 1988, 225-44.
16. Greene, W.H. Econometric Analysis. New York: Macmillan, 1993.
17. Hull, C. Principles of Behavior. New York: Appleton-Century-Crofts, 1943.
18. Kahneman, D., F. Slovic, and A. Tversky (eds.). Judgement Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1982.
19. Kelley, H. "Learning to Forecast Price in the Laboratory and in the Field." Ph.D. thesis, chapter 1, Economics Department, University of California Santa Cruz, 1998.
20. _. "Behavioral Country Fund Discounts: Experimental and Field Evidence of Bounded Rationality." Ph.D. thesis, chapter 2, 3, Economics Department, University of California Santa Cruz, 1999.
21. Kelley, H., and D. Friedman. "Learning to Forecast Rationally," in Handbook of Experimental Economics Results, edited by C. Plott and V. Smith, forthcoming.
22. Kitzis, S., H. Kelley, E. Berg, D. Massaro, D. Friedman. "Broadening the Tests of Learning Models." Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 42(2-3), 1998, 327-55.
23. Marcet, A., and T. Sargent. "Convergence of Least Squares Learning Mechanisms in Self Referential Linear Stochastic Models." Journal of Economic Theory, 48, 1989a, 337-68.
24. _. "Convergence of Least Squares Learning in Environments with Hidden State Variables and Private Information." Journal of Political Economy, 97, 1989b, 1306-22.
25. _. "Least Squares and the Dynamics of Hyperinflation," in Chaos, Complexity, and Sunspots, edited by W. Barnett, J. Geweke, and K. Shell. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1989c.
26. Marimon, Ramon, and Shyam Sunder. "Indeterminacy of Equilibria in a Hyperinflationary World: Experimental Evidence." Econometrica, 61, 1993, 1073-107.
27. Rabin, M. "Psychology and Economics." Journal of Economic Literature, 36, 1998, 11-46.
28. Roll, R. "Orange Juice and Weather." American Economic Review, 74, 1984, 861-80.
29. Sargent, T. Bounded Rationality in Macroeconomics. Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1994.
30. Smith, V., and J. Walker. "Monetary Rewards and Decision Cost in Experimental Economics." Economic Inquiry, 31, 1993, 245-61.
31. Thordike, E.L. "Animal Intelligence: An Experimental Study of the Associative Processes in Animals." Psychological Monographs, 2, 1898.
32. Van Huyck, J., R. Battalio, and F. Rankin. "On the Origin of Convention: Evidence From Coordination Games." Economic Journal, 107(442), 1997, 56-97.
33. Williams, A.W. "The Formation of Price Forecasts in Experimental Markets." Journal of Money Credit and Banking, 19, 1987, 1-18.