Expert assessment of uncertainties in detection and attribution of climate change

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

Volumn 83, Issue 9, 2002, Pages 1317-1326

  Risbey, James S ^a   Kandlikar, Milind ^b  

^a MONASH UNIVERSITY   (Australia)

^b UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA   (Canada)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

MATHEMATICAL MODELS; PROBABILITY; SIGNAL DETECTION; WEATHER FORECASTING;

GREENHOUSE FORCING; GREENHOUSE GASES;

CLIMATE CHANGE;

EID: 0036762225     PISSN: 00030007     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/1520-0477(2002)083<1317:EAOUID>2.3.CO;2     Document Type: Article

References (28)

1. Barnett, T., 1999: Comparison of near-surface air temperature variability in 11 coupled global climate models. J. Climate, 12, 511-518.
2. ____, and Coauthors, 1999: Detection and attribution of recent climate change: A status report. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 80, 2631-2659.
3. Bell, T. L., 1986: Theory of optimal weighting of data to detect climate change. J. Atmos. Sci., 43, 1694-1710.
4. Briffa, K. R., and T. J. Osborn, 1999: Seeing the wood from the trees. Science, 284, 926-927.
5. Folland, C., and Coauthors, 2001: Observed climate variability and change. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, J. T. Houghton et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, 99-181.
6. Hansen, J., and A. Lacis, 1990: Sun and dust versus greenhouse gases: An assessment of their relative roles in global climate change. Nature, 346, 713-719.
7. ____, M. Sato, A. Lacis, R. Ruedy, I. Tegen, and E. Matthews, 1998: Perspective: Climate forcings in the industrial era. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 95, 12 753-12 758.
8. Hasselman, K., 1998: Conventional and bayesian approach to climate-change detection and attribution. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 124, 2541-2565.
9. Hegerl, G., K. Hasselmann, U. Cubasch, J. F. B. Mitchell, E. Roeckner, R. Voss, and J. Waszkewitz, 1997: On multi-fingerprint detection and attribution of greenhouse gas- and aerosol-forced climate change. Climate Dyn., 13, 613-634.
10. Jones, P. D., M. New, D. Parker, S. Martin, and I. Rigor, 1999: Surface air temperature and its change over the past 150 years. Rev. Geophys., 37, 173-199.
11. Karl, T., and R. Knight, 1998: Secular trends of precipitation amount, frequency, and intensity in the United States. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 79, 231-241.
12. ____, and Coauthors, 1993: Asymmetric trends of daily maximum and minimum temperature. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 74, 1007-1023.
13. Karoly, D. J., and K. Braganza, 2001: Identifying global change using simple indices. Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 2205-2208.
14. Kasting, J., 1998: The carbon cycle, climate, and the long-term effects of fossil fuel burning. Consequences, 4, 15-27.
15. Mann, M. E., R. S. Bradley, and M. K. Hughes, 1998: Global-scale temperature patterns and climate forcing over the past six centuries. Nature, 392, 779-787.
16. Michaels, P. J., P. C. Knappenberger, R. C. Balling Jr., and R. E. Davis, 2000: Observed warming in cold anticyclones. Climate Res., 14, 1-6.
17. Mitchell, J., and Coauthors, 2001: Detection of climate change and attribution of causes. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, J. T. Houghton et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, 695-738.
18. Moss, R., and S. H. Schneider, 2000: Towards consistent assessment and reporting of uncertainties in the IPCC TAR: Initial recommendations for discussion by authors. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Tech. Report, IPCC Guidance Paper, 35 pp.
19. Pelletier, J., 1997: Analysis and modeling of the natural variability of climate. J. Climate, 10, 1331-1342.
20. Ramaswamy, V., and Coauthors, 2001: Radiative forcing of climate change. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, J. T. Houghton et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, 349-416.
21. Risbey, J. S., M. Kandlikar, and D. J. Karoly, 2000: A protocol to articulate and quantify uncertainties in climate change detection and attribution. Climate Res., 16, 61-78.
22. Santer, B., and Coauthors, 1996a: A search for human influences on the thermal structure of the atmosphere. Nature, 382, 39-46.
23. ____, T. M. L. Wigley, T. Barnett, and E. Anyamba, 1996b: Detection of climate change and attribution of causes. Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change, J. T. Houghton et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, 407-443.
24. Schneider, S. H., 1989: The greenhouse effect-Science and policy. Science, 243, 771-781.
25. Shine, K., and P. de F. Forster, 1999: The effect of human activity on radiative forcing of climate change: A review of recent developments. Global Planet. Change, 20, 205-225.
26. Tett, S., J. F. B. Mitchell, D. Parker, and M. Allen, 1996: Human influence on the atmospheric vertical temperature structure: Detection and observations. Science, 274, 1170-1173.
27. Wigley, T. M. L., 1999: The science of climate change: Global and U.S. perspectives. Tech. Report, Pew Center on Global Climate Change, Arlington, VA, 48 pp.
28. Zwiers, F. W., 1999: Climate Change Detection: A review of Techniques and Applications. Anthropogenic Climate Change. Proceedings of the First GKSS Spring School on Environmental Research, H. Storch, E. Raschke, and G. Flöser, Eds., Springer Verlag, 161-203.