The geographical transmission of smallpox in the Franco-Prussian War: Prisoner of war camps and their impact upon epidemic diffusion processes in the civil settlement system of Prussia, 1870-71

Medical History

Volumn 46, Issue 2, 2002, Pages 241-264

  Smallman Raynor, Matthew ^a   Cliff, Andrew D ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF NOTTINGHAM   (United Kingdom)

^b UNIVERSITY OF CAMBRIDGE   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ARTICLE; DISEASE TRANSMISSION; EPIDEMIC; FRANCE; GERMANY; HISTORY; HUMAN; PRISON; SMALLPOX; WAR;

DISEASE OUTBREAKS; DISEASE TRANSMISSION, HORIZONTAL; FRANCE; GERMANY; HISTORY, 19TH CENTURY; HUMANS; PRISONS; SMALLPOX; WAR;

EID: 0036545853     PISSN: 00257273     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1017/s0025727300069106     Document Type: Article

References (105)

1. See, for example, Frank Aker and James C Cecil, 'The influence of disease upon European history', Milit. Med., 1983, 148: 441-6; Charles Creighton, A history of epidemics in Britain, volume 11: From the extinction of the plague to the present time, 2nd ed., London, Frank Cass, 1965; Samuel Dumas and K O Vedel-Petersen, Losses of life caused by war, Oxford, Clarendon Press, 1923; August Hirsch, Handbook of geographical and historical pathology: volume I: Acute infective diseases, London, New Sydenham Society, 1883; Henry Lancaster, Expectations of life: a study in the demography, statistics, and history of world mortality, New York and London, Springer, 1990, pp. 314-40; Ralph Major, War and disease, London, Hutchinson, 1940; Friedrich Prinzing, Epidemics resulting from wars, Oxford, Clarendon Press, 1916.
2. See, for example, Frank Aker and James C Cecil, 'The influence of disease upon European history', Milit. Med., 1983, 148: 441-6; Charles Creighton, A history of epidemics in Britain, volume 11: From the extinction of the plague to the present time, 2nd ed., London, Frank Cass, 1965; Samuel Dumas and K O Vedel-Petersen, Losses of life caused by war, Oxford, Clarendon Press, 1923; August Hirsch, Handbook of geographical and historical pathology: volume I: Acute infective diseases, London, New Sydenham Society, 1883; Henry Lancaster, Expectations of life: a study in the demography, statistics, and history of world mortality, New York and London, Springer, 1990, pp. 314-40; Ralph Major, War and disease, London, Hutchinson, 1940; Friedrich Prinzing, Epidemics resulting from wars, Oxford, Clarendon Press, 1916.
3. See, for example, Frank Aker and James C Cecil, 'The influence of disease upon European history', Milit. Med., 1983, 148: 441-6; Charles Creighton, A history of epidemics in Britain, volume 11: From the extinction of the plague to the present time, 2nd ed., London, Frank Cass, 1965; Samuel Dumas and K O Vedel-Petersen, Losses of life caused by war, Oxford, Clarendon Press, 1923; August Hirsch, Handbook of geographical and historical pathology: volume I: Acute infective diseases, London, New Sydenham Society, 1883; Henry Lancaster, Expectations of life: a study in the demography, statistics, and history of world mortality, New York and London, Springer, 1990, pp. 314-40; Ralph Major, War and disease, London, Hutchinson, 1940; Friedrich Prinzing, Epidemics resulting from wars, Oxford, Clarendon Press, 1916.
4. See, for example, Frank Aker and James C Cecil, 'The influence of disease upon European history', Milit. Med., 1983, 148: 441-6; Charles Creighton, A history of epidemics in Britain, volume 11: From the extinction of the plague to the present time, 2nd ed., London, Frank Cass, 1965; Samuel Dumas and K O Vedel-Petersen, Losses of life caused by war, Oxford, Clarendon Press, 1923; August Hirsch, Handbook of geographical and historical pathology: volume I: Acute infective diseases, London, New Sydenham Society, 1883; Henry Lancaster, Expectations of life: a study in the demography, statistics, and history of world mortality, New York and London, Springer, 1990, pp. 314-40; Ralph Major, War and disease, London, Hutchinson, 1940; Friedrich Prinzing, Epidemics resulting from wars, Oxford, Clarendon Press, 1916.
5. See, for example, Frank Aker and James C Cecil, 'The influence of disease upon European history', Milit. Med., 1983, 148: 441-6; Charles Creighton, A history of epidemics in Britain, volume 11: From the extinction of the plague to the present time, 2nd ed., London, Frank Cass, 1965; Samuel Dumas and K O Vedel-Petersen, Losses of life caused by war, Oxford, Clarendon Press, 1923; August Hirsch, Handbook of geographical and historical pathology: volume I: Acute infective diseases, London, New Sydenham Society, 1883; Henry Lancaster, Expectations of life: a study in the demography, statistics, and history of world mortality, New York and London, Springer, 1990, pp. 314-40; Ralph Major, War and disease, London, Hutchinson, 1940; Friedrich Prinzing, Epidemics resulting from wars, Oxford, Clarendon Press, 1916.
6. See, for example, Frank Aker and James C Cecil, 'The influence of disease upon European history', Milit. Med., 1983, 148: 441-6; Charles Creighton, A history of epidemics in Britain, volume 11: From the extinction of the plague to the present time, 2nd ed., London, Frank Cass, 1965; Samuel Dumas and K O Vedel-Petersen, Losses of life caused by war, Oxford, Clarendon Press, 1923; August Hirsch, Handbook of geographical and historical pathology: volume I: Acute infective diseases, London, New Sydenham Society, 1883; Henry Lancaster, Expectations of life: a study in the demography, statistics, and history of world mortality, New York and London, Springer, 1990, pp. 314-40; Ralph Major, War and disease, London, Hutchinson, 1940; Friedrich Prinzing, Epidemics resulting from wars, Oxford, Clarendon Press, 1916.
7. See, for example, Frank Aker and James C Cecil, 'The influence of disease upon European history', Milit. Med., 1983, 148: 441-6; Charles Creighton, A history of epidemics in Britain, volume 11: From the extinction of the plague to the present time, 2nd ed., London, Frank Cass, 1965; Samuel Dumas and K O Vedel-Petersen, Losses of life caused by war, Oxford, Clarendon Press, 1923; August Hirsch, Handbook of geographical and historical pathology: volume I: Acute infective diseases, London, New Sydenham Society, 1883; Henry Lancaster, Expectations of life: a study in the demography, statistics, and history of world mortality, New York and London, Springer, 1990, pp. 314-40; Ralph Major, War and disease, London, Hutchinson, 1940; Friedrich Prinzing, Epidemics resulting from wars, Oxford, Clarendon Press, 1916.
8. Hirsch, op. cit., note 1 above, pp. 503-4 For further details, see Prinzing, op. cit., note 1 above, pp. 165-70.
9. Hirsch, op. cit., note 1 above, pp. 503-4 For further details, see Prinzing, op. cit., note 1 above, pp. 165-70.
10. Hirsch, op. cit., note 1 above, p. 398.
11. Prinzing, op. cit., note 1 above, p. 186.
12. Prinzing, op. cit., note 1 above, pp. 197-285; R Bruce Low, 'The incidence of small-pox throughout the world in recent years', Reports of the Local Government Board on public health and medical subjects. New Series, 1918, 17: 3-4; J D Rolleston, 'The smallpox pandemic of 1870-74', Proc. R. Soc. Med., Section of Epidemiology and State Medicine, 1933, 27: 177-92; Frank Fenner, Donald Henderson, Isao Arita, Zdenek Ježek, and Ivan Ladnyi, Smallpox and its eradication, Geneva, World Health Organization, 1988, p. 232.
13. Prinzing, op. cit., note 1 above, pp. 197-285; R Bruce Low, 'The incidence of small-pox throughout the world in recent years', Reports of the Local Government Board on public health and medical subjects. New Series, 1918, 17: 3-4; J D Rolleston, 'The smallpox pandemic of 1870-74', Proc. R. Soc. Med., Section of Epidemiology and State Medicine, 1933, 27: 177-92; Frank Fenner, Donald Henderson, Isao Arita, Zdenek Ježek, and Ivan Ladnyi, Smallpox and its eradication, Geneva, World Health Organization, 1988, p. 232.
14. Prinzing, op. cit., note 1 above, pp. 197-285; R Bruce Low, 'The incidence of small-pox throughout the world in recent years', Reports of the Local Government Board on public health and medical subjects. New Series, 1918, 17: 3-4; J D Rolleston, 'The smallpox pandemic of 1870-74', Proc. R. Soc. Med., Section of Epidemiology and State Medicine, 1933, 27: 177-92; Frank Fenner, Donald Henderson, Isao Arita, Zdenek Ježek, and Ivan Ladnyi, Smallpox and its eradication, Geneva, World Health Organization, 1988, p. 232.
15. Prinzing, op. cit., note 1 above, pp. 197-285; R Bruce Low, 'The incidence of small-pox throughout the world in recent years', Reports of the Local Government Board on public health and medical subjects. New Series, 1918, 17: 3-4; J D Rolleston, 'The smallpox pandemic of 1870-74', Proc. R. Soc. Med., Section of Epidemiology and State Medicine, 1933, 27: 177-92; Frank Fenner, Donald Henderson, Isao Arita, Zdenek Ježek, and Ivan Ladnyi, Smallpox and its eradication, Geneva, World Health Organization, 1988, p. 232.
16. See, for example, Hirsch, op. cit., note 1 above; Prinzing, op. cit., note 1 above; Major, op. cit., note 1 above; Lancaster, op. cit., note 1 above; Richard Garfield and Alfred Neugut, 'Epidemiologic analysis of warfare: a historical review', J. Am. med Ass., 1991, 266: 688-92; Barry Levy and Victor Sidel (eds), War and public health, New York, Oxford University Press, 1997.
17. See, for example, Hirsch, op. cit., note 1 above; Prinzing, op. cit., note 1 above; Major, op. cit., note 1 above; Lancaster, op. cit., note 1 above; Richard Garfield and Alfred Neugut, 'Epidemiologic analysis of warfare: a historical review', J. Am. med Ass., 1991, 266: 688-92; Barry Levy and Victor Sidel (eds), War and public health, New York, Oxford University Press, 1997.
18. See, for example, Hirsch, op. cit., note 1 above; Prinzing, op. cit., note 1 above; Major, op. cit., note 1 above; Lancaster, op. cit., note 1 above; Richard Garfield and Alfred Neugut, 'Epidemiologic analysis of warfare: a historical review', J. Am. med Ass., 1991, 266: 688-92; Barry Levy and Victor Sidel (eds), War and public health, New York, Oxford University Press, 1997.
19. See, for example, Hirsch, op. cit., note 1 above; Prinzing, op. cit., note 1 above; Major, op. cit., note 1 above; Lancaster, op. cit., note 1 above; Richard Garfield and Alfred Neugut, 'Epidemiologic analysis of warfare: a historical review', J. Am. med Ass., 1991, 266: 688-92; Barry Levy and Victor Sidel (eds), War and public health, New York, Oxford University Press, 1997.
20. See, for example, Hirsch, op. cit., note 1 above; Prinzing, op. cit., note 1 above; Major, op. cit., note 1 above; Lancaster, op. cit., note 1 above; Richard Garfield and Alfred Neugut, 'Epidemiologic analysis of warfare: a historical review', J. Am. med Ass., 1991, 266: 688-92; Barry Levy and Victor Sidel (eds), War and public health, New York, Oxford University Press, 1997.
21. See, for example, Hirsch, op. cit., note 1 above; Prinzing, op. cit., note 1 above; Major, op. cit., note 1 above; Lancaster, op. cit., note 1 above; Richard Garfield and Alfred Neugut, 'Epidemiologic analysis of warfare: a historical review', J. Am. med Ass., 1991, 266: 688-92; Barry Levy and Victor Sidel (eds), War and public health, New York, Oxford University Press, 1997.
22. Prinzing, op. cit., note 1 above, p. 189; Dumas and Vedel-Petersen, op. cit., note 1 above, pp. 51-3.
23. Prinzing, op. cit., note 1 above, p. 189; Dumas and Vedel-Petersen, op. cit., note 1 above, pp. 51-3.
24. Prinzing, op. cit., note 1 above, pp. 189-97.
25. See Fenner, et al., op. cit., note 5 above, p. 232.
26. See Prinzing, op. cit., note 1 above, pp. 207, 284.
27. See, for example, Matthew Smallman-Raynor and Andrew Cliff, The Philippines insurrection and the 1902-4 cholera epidemic: part I. Epidemiological diffusion processes in war', J. Hist. Geog., 1998, 24: 69-89; Idem, 'The Philippines insurrection and the 1902-4 cholera epidemic: part II. Diffusion patterns in war and peace', J. Hist. Geog., 1998, 24: 188-210; idem, 'The spatial dynamics of epidemics in war and peace: Cuba and the insurrection against Spain', Trans. Inst. Br. Geographers, 1999, 24: 331-52; idem, 'Epidemic diffusion processes in a system of US military camps: transfer diffusion and the spread of typhoid fever in the Spanish-American War, 1898', Ann. Ass. Am. Geographers, 2001, 91: 71-91.
28. See, for example, Matthew Smallman-Raynor and Andrew Cliff, The Philippines insurrection and the 1902-4 cholera epidemic: part I. Epidemiological diffusion processes in war', J. Hist. Geog., 1998, 24: 69-89; Idem, 'The Philippines insurrection and the 1902-4 cholera epidemic: part II. Diffusion patterns in war and peace', J. Hist. Geog., 1998, 24: 188-210; idem, 'The spatial dynamics of epidemics in war and peace: Cuba and the insurrection against Spain', Trans. Inst. Br. Geographers, 1999, 24: 331-52; idem, 'Epidemic diffusion processes in a system of US military camps: transfer diffusion and the spread of typhoid fever in the Spanish-American War, 1898', Ann. Ass. Am. Geographers, 2001, 91: 71-91.
29. See, for example, Matthew Smallman-Raynor and Andrew Cliff, The Philippines insurrection and the 1902-4 cholera epidemic: part I. Epidemiological diffusion processes in war', J. Hist. Geog., 1998, 24: 69-89; Idem, 'The Philippines insurrection and the 1902-4 cholera epidemic: part II. Diffusion patterns in war and peace', J. Hist. Geog., 1998, 24: 188-210; idem, 'The spatial dynamics of epidemics in war and peace: Cuba and the insurrection against Spain', Trans. Inst. Br. Geographers, 1999, 24: 331-52; idem, 'Epidemic diffusion processes in a system of US military camps: transfer diffusion and the spread of typhoid fever in the Spanish-American War, 1898', Ann. Ass. Am. Geographers, 2001, 91: 71-91.
30. See, for example, Matthew Smallman-Raynor and Andrew Cliff, The Philippines insurrection and the 1902-4 cholera epidemic: part I. Epidemiological diffusion processes in war', J. Hist. Geog., 1998, 24: 69-89; Idem, 'The Philippines insurrection and the 1902-4 cholera epidemic: part II. Diffusion patterns in war and peace', J. Hist. Geog., 1998, 24: 188-210; idem, 'The spatial dynamics of epidemics in war and peace: Cuba and the insurrection against Spain', Trans. Inst. Br. Geographers, 1999, 24: 331-52; idem, 'Epidemic diffusion processes in a system of US military camps: transfer diffusion and the spread of typhoid fever in the Spanish-American War, 1898', Ann. Ass. Am. Geographers, 2001, 91: 71-91.
31. Albert Guttstadt, 'Die Pocken-Epidemie in Preussen, insbesondere in Berlin 1870/72, nebst Beiträgen zur Beurtheilung der Impfirage', Zeitschrift des königlich Preussischen Statistischen Bureaus, 1873, 13: 116-58.
32. See, for example, Prinzing , op. cit., note 1 above, pp. 282-5; Claudia Huerkamp, 'The history of smallpox vaccination in Germany: a first step in the medicalization of the general public', J. Contemp. Hist., 1985, 20: 617-35; Peter Hennock, 'Vaccination policy against smallpox, 1835-1914: a comparison of England with Prussia and Imperial Germany', Soc. Hist. Med., 1998, 11: 49-71.
33. See, for example, Prinzing , op. cit., note 1 above, pp. 282-5; Claudia Huerkamp, 'The history of smallpox vaccination in Germany: a first step in the medicalization of the general public', J. Contemp. Hist., 1985, 20: 617-35; Peter Hennock, 'Vaccination policy against smallpox, 1835-1914: a comparison of England with Prussia and Imperial Germany', Soc. Hist. Med., 1998, 11: 49-71.
34. See, for example, Prinzing , op. cit., note 1 above, pp. 282-5; Claudia Huerkamp, 'The history of smallpox vaccination in Germany: a first step in the medicalization of the general public', J. Contemp. Hist., 1985, 20: 617-35; Peter Hennock, 'Vaccination policy against smallpox, 1835-1914: a comparison of England with Prussia and Imperial Germany', Soc. Hist. Med., 1998, 11: 49-71.
35. Methods for the identification of disease diffusion processes are described in Andrew Cliff and Peter Haggett, Atlas of disease distributions: analytic approaches to epidemiological data, Oxford, Basil Blackwell, 1988.
36. See, for example, Guttstadt, op. cit., note 12 above; Prinzing, op. cit., note 1 above; Rolleston, op. cit., note 5 above.
37. See, for example, Guttstadt, op. cit., note 12 above; Prinzing, op. cit., note 1 above; Rolleston, op. cit., note 5 above.
38. See, for example, Guttstadt, op. cit., note 12 above; Prinzing, op. cit., note 1 above; Rolleston, op. cit., note 5 above.
39. Brian Mitchell, International historical statistics: Europe, 1750-1993, 4th ed., Basingstoke, Macmillan, 1998.
40. See Guttstadt, op. cit., note 12 above, pp. 143-4.
41. The Franco-Prussian War has attracted a very large literature. For the official histories of the war, see: France, État-major de l'Armée, Section Historique, La guerre de 1870-71, Paris, R Chapelot, 1901-14; Prussia, Grosser Generalstab, Kriegsgeschichtliche Abteilung, Der Deutsch-Französische Krieg. 1870-1, Berlin, E S Mittler, 1872-81 (The Franco-German War 1870-1871, translated from the German official account by Capt. FCH Clarke, London, HMSO, 1874-1884). Accessible English-language overviews of the origin and course of the war include: William Carr, The origins of the wars of German unification, London, Longman, 1991, pp. 144-213; S William Halperin, 'The origins of the Franco-Prussian War revisited: Bismarck and the Hohenzollern candidature for the Spanish throne', J. mod. Hist., 1973, 45: 83-91; Michael Howard, The Franco-Prussian War: the German invasion of France, 1870-1871, London, Methuen, 1961; Emile Ollivier, The Franco-Prussian War and its hidden causes, London, Pitman, 1913; Lawrence Steefel, Bismark, the Hohenzollern candidacy, and the origins of the Franco-German War, Cambridge, MA, Harvard University Press, 1962.
42. The Franco-Prussian War has attracted a very large literature. For the official histories of the war, see: France, État-major de l'Armée, Section Historique, La guerre de 1870-71, Paris, R Chapelot, 1901-14; Prussia, Grosser Generalstab, Kriegsgeschichtliche Abteilung, Der Deutsch-Französische Krieg. 1870-1, Berlin, E S Mittler, 1872-81 (The Franco-German War 1870-1871, translated from the German official account by Capt. FCH Clarke, London, HMSO, 1874-1884). Accessible English-language overviews of the origin and course of the war include: William Carr, The origins of the wars of German unification, London, Longman, 1991, pp. 144-213; S William Halperin, 'The origins of the Franco-Prussian War revisited: Bismarck and the Hohenzollern candidature for the Spanish throne', J. mod. Hist., 1973, 45: 83-91; Michael Howard, The Franco-Prussian War: the German invasion of France, 1870-1871, London, Methuen, 1961; Emile Ollivier, The Franco-Prussian War and its hidden causes, London, Pitman, 1913; Lawrence Steefel, Bismark, the Hohenzollern candidacy, and the origins of the Franco-German War, Cambridge, MA, Harvard University Press, 1962.
43. The Franco-Prussian War has attracted a very large literature. For the official histories of the war, see: France, État-major de l'Armée, Section Historique, La guerre de 1870-71, Paris, R Chapelot, 1901-14; Prussia, Grosser Generalstab, Kriegsgeschichtliche Abteilung, Der Deutsch-Französische Krieg. 1870-1, Berlin, E S Mittler, 1872-81 (The Franco-German War 1870-1871, translated from the German official account by Capt. FCH Clarke, London, HMSO, 1874-1884). Accessible English-language overviews of the origin and course of the war include: William Carr, The origins of the wars of German unification, London, Longman, 1991, pp. 144-213; S William Halperin, 'The origins of the Franco-Prussian War revisited: Bismarck and the Hohenzollern candidature for the Spanish throne', J. mod. Hist., 1973, 45: 83-91; Michael Howard, The Franco-Prussian War: the German invasion of France, 1870-1871, London, Methuen, 1961; Emile Ollivier, The Franco-Prussian War and its hidden causes, London, Pitman, 1913; Lawrence Steefel, Bismark, the Hohenzollern candidacy, and the origins of the Franco-German War, Cambridge, MA, Harvard University Press, 1962.
44. The Franco-Prussian War has attracted a very large literature. For the official histories of the war, see: France, État-major de l'Armée, Section Historique, La guerre de 1870-71, Paris, R Chapelot, 1901-14; Prussia, Grosser Generalstab, Kriegsgeschichtliche Abteilung, Der Deutsch-Französische Krieg. 1870-1, Berlin, E S Mittler, 1872-81 (The Franco-German War 1870-1871, translated from the German official account by Capt. FCH Clarke, London, HMSO, 1874-1884). Accessible English-language overviews of the origin and course of the war include: William Carr, The origins of the wars of German unification, London, Longman, 1991, pp. 144-213; S William Halperin, 'The origins of the Franco-Prussian War revisited: Bismarck and the Hohenzollern candidature for the Spanish throne', J. mod. Hist., 1973, 45: 83-91; Michael Howard, The Franco-Prussian War: the German invasion of France, 1870-1871, London, Methuen, 1961; Emile Ollivier, The Franco-Prussian War and its hidden causes, London, Pitman, 1913; Lawrence Steefel, Bismark, the Hohenzollern candidacy, and the origins of the Franco-German War, Cambridge, MA, Harvard University Press, 1962.
45. The Franco-Prussian War has attracted a very large literature. For the official histories of the war, see: France, État-major de l'Armée, Section Historique, La guerre de 1870-71, Paris, R Chapelot, 1901-14; Prussia, Grosser Generalstab, Kriegsgeschichtliche Abteilung, Der Deutsch-Französische Krieg. 1870-1, Berlin, E S Mittler, 1872-81 (The Franco-German War 1870-1871, translated from the German official account by Capt. FCH Clarke, London, HMSO, 1874-1884). Accessible English-language overviews of the origin and course of the war include: William Carr, The origins of the wars of German unification, London, Longman, 1991, pp. 144-213; S William Halperin, 'The origins of the Franco-Prussian War revisited: Bismarck and the Hohenzollern candidature for the Spanish throne', J. mod. Hist., 1973, 45: 83-91; Michael Howard, The Franco-Prussian War: the German invasion of France, 1870-1871, London, Methuen, 1961; Emile Ollivier, The Franco-Prussian War and its hidden causes, London, Pitman, 1913; Lawrence Steefel, Bismark, the Hohenzollern candidacy, and the origins of the Franco-German War, Cambridge, MA, Harvard University Press, 1962.
46. The Franco-Prussian War has attracted a very large literature. For the official histories of the war, see: France, État-major de l'Armée, Section Historique, La guerre de 1870-71, Paris, R Chapelot, 1901-14; Prussia, Grosser Generalstab, Kriegsgeschichtliche Abteilung, Der Deutsch-Französische Krieg. 1870-1, Berlin, E S Mittler, 1872-81 (The Franco-German War 1870-1871, translated from the German official account by Capt. FCH Clarke, London, HMSO, 1874-1884). Accessible English-language overviews of the origin and course of the war include: William Carr, The origins of the wars of German unification, London, Longman, 1991, pp. 144-213; S William Halperin, 'The origins of the Franco-Prussian War revisited: Bismarck and the Hohenzollern candidature for the Spanish throne', J. mod. Hist., 1973, 45: 83-91; Michael Howard, The Franco-Prussian War: the German invasion of France, 1870-1871, London, Methuen, 1961; Emile Ollivier, The Franco-Prussian War and its hidden causes, London, Pitman, 1913; Lawrence Steefel, Bismark, the Hohenzollern candidacy, and the origins of the Franco-German War, Cambridge, MA, Harvard University Press, 1962.
47. The Franco-Prussian War has attracted a very large literature. For the official histories of the war, see: France, État-major de l'Armée, Section Historique, La guerre de 1870-71, Paris, R Chapelot, 1901-14; Prussia, Grosser Generalstab, Kriegsgeschichtliche Abteilung, Der Deutsch-Französische Krieg. 1870-1, Berlin, E S Mittler, 1872-81 (The Franco-German War 1870-1871, translated from the German official account by Capt. FCH Clarke, London, HMSO, 1874-1884). Accessible English-language overviews of the origin and course of the war include: William Carr, The origins of the wars of German unification, London, Longman, 1991, pp. 144-213; S William Halperin, 'The origins of the Franco-Prussian War revisited: Bismarck and the Hohenzollern candidature for the Spanish throne', J. mod. Hist., 1973, 45: 83-91; Michael Howard, The Franco-Prussian War: the German invasion of France, 1870-1871, London, Methuen, 1961; Emile Ollivier, The Franco-Prussian War and its hidden causes, London, Pitman, 1913; Lawrence Steefel, Bismark, the Hohenzollern candidacy, and the origins of the Franco-German War, Cambridge, MA, Harvard University Press, 1962.
48. The Franco-Prussian War has attracted a very large literature. For the official histories of the war, see: France, État-major de l'Armée, Section Historique, La guerre de 1870-71, Paris, R Chapelot, 1901-14; Prussia, Grosser Generalstab, Kriegsgeschichtliche Abteilung, Der Deutsch-Französische Krieg. 1870-1, Berlin, E S Mittler, 1872-81 (The Franco-German War 1870-1871, translated from the German official account by Capt. FCH Clarke, London, HMSO, 1874-1884). Accessible English-language overviews of the origin and course of the war include: William Carr, The origins of the wars of German unification, London, Longman, 1991, pp. 144-213; S William Halperin, 'The origins of the Franco-Prussian War revisited: Bismarck and the Hohenzollern candidature for the Spanish throne', J. mod. Hist., 1973, 45: 83-91; Michael Howard, The Franco-Prussian War: the German invasion of France, 1870-1871, London, Methuen, 1961; Emile Ollivier, The Franco-Prussian War and its hidden causes, London, Pitman, 1913; Lawrence Steefel, Bismark, the Hohenzollern candidacy, and the origins of the Franco-German War, Cambridge, MA, Harvard University Press, 1962.
49. Among the candidates for the Spanish throne, vacant after the expulsion of Queen Isabella II in 1868, was Prince Leopold of Hohenzollern, a distant relative of the Prussian King Wilhem I. Details of the resulting diplomatic crisis with France are given in: Steefel, op. cit., note 18 above; Halperin, op. cit., note 18 above.
50. Among the candidates for the Spanish throne, vacant after the expulsion of Queen Isabella II in 1868, was Prince Leopold of Hohenzollern, a distant relative of the Prussian King Wilhem I. Details of the resulting diplomatic crisis with France are given in: Steefel, op. cit., note 18 above; Halperin, op. cit., note 18 above.
51. France had voted war credits on 15 July; the formal declaration of war was issued from Paris on 17 July and presented to the Prussian Prime Minister, Otto von Bismarck, on 19 July.
52. Dumas and Vedel-Petersen, op. cit., note 1 above, p. 51; Prinzing, op. cit., note 1 above, pp. 189, 208-9.
53. Dumas and Vedel-Petersen, op. cit., note 1 above, p. 51; Prinzing, op. cit., note 1 above, pp. 189, 208-9.
54. Dumas and Vedel-Petersen, op. cit., note 1 above, p. 51.
55. Prinzing, op. cit., note 1 above, pp. 189, 208-9.
56. Fenner, et al., op. cit., note 5 above.
57. See, for example, Hirsch, op. cit., note 1 above, p. 142; Fenner, et al, op. cit., note 5 above.
58. See, for example, Hirsch, op. cit., note 1 above, p. 142; Fenner, et al, op. cit., note 5 above.
59. Fenner, et al., op. cit., note 5 above, p. 231.
60. See, for example, letter from W R Cornish, 'The origin of the smallpox epidemic', Lancet, 1871, i: 703.
61. Lancet, 1870, i: 24.
62. Rolleston, op. cit., note 5 above, pp. 178-9.
63. Cornish, op. cit., note 27 above.
64. Rolleston, op. cit., note 5 above, p. 179.
65. Lancet, 1870, ii: 183.
66. With the exception of isolated reports of smallpox in Berlin, and a more severe outbreak of the disease in the city of Chemnitz (Saxony), smallpox was all but absent from Prussia and the allied states of Germany at the start of the Franco-Prussian War. See Guttstadt, op. cit., note 12 above, pp. 130-8; Prinzing, op. cit., note 1 above, p. 199; Rolleston, op. cit., note 5 above, p. 186.
67. With the exception of isolated reports of smallpox in Berlin, and a more severe outbreak of the disease in the city of Chemnitz (Saxony), smallpox was all but absent from Prussia and the allied states of Germany at the start of the Franco-Prussian War. See Guttstadt, op. cit., note 12 above, pp. 130-8; Prinzing, op. cit., note 1 above, p. 199; Rolleston, op. cit., note 5 above, p. 186.
68. With the exception of isolated reports of smallpox in Berlin, and a more severe outbreak of the disease in the city of Chemnitz (Saxony), smallpox was all but absent from Prussia and the allied states of Germany at the start of the Franco-Prussian War. See Guttstadt, op. cit., note 12 above, pp. 130-8; Prinzing, op. cit., note 1 above, p. 199; Rolleston, op. cit., note 5 above, p. 186.
69. For the French army, a programme of compulsory vaccination of all new recruits had been introduced in 1859. However, the reputedly high failure rate of the army's (re)vaccination schedule in the years immediately preceding the war with Prussia, coupled with the failure to vaccinate those men who were enlisted after the outbreak of hostilities, ensured that a large sector of the French army was prone to smallpox. See Rolleston, op. cit., note 5 above, p. 179. For Prussian civilians, a compulsory programme of smallpox vaccination and revaccination awaited the implementation of the post-war Imperial Vaccination Law of 1874. See Prinzing, op. cit., note 1 above, p. 198.
70. For the French army, a programme of compulsory vaccination of all new recruits had been introduced in 1859. However, the reputedly high failure rate of the army's (re)vaccination schedule in the years immediately preceding the war with Prussia, coupled with the failure to vaccinate those men who were enlisted after the outbreak of hostilities, ensured that a large sector of the French army was prone to smallpox. See Rolleston, op. cit., note 5 above, p. 179. For Prussian civilians, a compulsory programme of smallpox vaccination and revaccination awaited the implementation of the post-war Imperial Vaccination Law of 1874. See Prinzing, op. cit., note 1 above, p. 198.
71. See Hirsch, op. cit., note 1 above, p. 142 fn.; Prinzing, op. cit., note 1 above, p. 198.
72. See Hirsch, op. cit., note 1 above, p. 142 fn.; Prinzing, op. cit., note 1 above, p. 198.
73. Smallpox had been subject to mandatory notification in the provinces of Prussia since 1835. See Guttstadt, op. cit., note 12 above, p. 129.
74. Guttstadt, op. cit., note 12 above. For an English-language overview of the contents of Guttstadt's original study, see Prinzing, op. cit., note 1 above, pp. 214-51 passim.
75. Guttstadt, op. cit., note 12 above. For an English-language overview of the contents of Guttstadt's original study, see Prinzing, op. cit., note 1 above, pp. 214-51 passim.
76. Cliff and Haggett, op. cit., note 14 above.
77. Guttstadt, op. cit., note 12 above, p. 140.
78. According to Guttstadt (op. cit., note 12 above, pp. 140-2), one of the first documented cases of smallpox in the POW population was Zuave Hubert, an unvaccinated French soldier who arrived at Königsberg in the second week of August. The patient first presented with smallpox on 15 August; he died seven days later, on 22 August.
79. Guttstadt, op. cit., note 12 above, pp. 140-2.
80. For examples, see Prinzing, op. cit., note 1 above, pp. 228, 243.
81. See, for example, Douglas C Montgomery and Elizabeth A Peck, Introduction to linear regression analysis, New York, Wiley, 1992; John Neter, Michael Kutner, Christopher Nachtsheim and William Wasserman, Applied linear regression models, 3rd ed., Chicago, Irwin, 1996.
82. See, for example, Douglas C Montgomery and Elizabeth A Peck, Introduction to linear regression analysis, New York, Wiley, 1992; John Neter, Michael Kutner, Christopher Nachtsheim and William Wasserman, Applied linear regression models, 3rd ed., Chicago, Irwin, 1996.
83. pi. In this manner, the most important explanatory variable is entered in step 1 of the model. For an example of the application of multiple regression techniques to the analysis of epidemiological diffusion processes, see Andrew Cliff, Peter Haggett, Keith Ord and G Versey, Spatial diffusion: an historical geography of epidemics in an island community, Cambridge University Press, 1981, pp. 27-32.
84. pi.
85. To check for this problem, Pearson's r correlation coefficient was used to assess the level of correlation between the independent variables.
86. To assist in the interpretation of Figure 3A, three extreme outliers (the index locations of Cüstrin, Düsseldorf and Königsberg) have been omitted from the scatter plot.
87. For the purposes of the present analysis, extreme outliers were identified by (i) visual inspection of time-distance and time-population plots coupled with (ii) examination of observations with large scaled (standardized) residuals in the multiple regression procedure.
88. Based on a sample of 40 locations in Table 2, and for which information is provided by Guttstadt (op. cit., note 12 above), a highly significant and negative association (r= -0.60; t= -4.68; p<0.05 in a one-tailed test) exists between (i) the time (measured in weeks from the beginning of the war) of arrival of the first POWs and (ii) the maximum size of the POW population.
89. Examples of the spread of smallpox with the internal transfer of French POWs are given in: Guttstadt, op. cit., note 12 above, pp. 140-50; Prinzing, op. cit., note 1 above, pp. 214-51.
90. Examples of the spread of smallpox with the internal transfer of French POWs are given in: Guttstadt, op. cit., note 12 above, pp. 140-50; Prinzing, op. cit., note 1 above, pp. 214-51.
91. ci.
92. Outliers were identified in the manner described in note 48 above.
93. We define a smallpox virus generation as 12 days. This represents the typical interval between the time at which a case becomes infectious and the onset of clinical symptoms in a contact of that case. See Fenner, et al., op. cit., note 5 above.
94. See Guttstadt, op. cit., note 12 above, pp. 140-50; Prinzing, op. cit., note 1 above, pp. 214-51.
95. See Guttstadt, op. cit., note 12 above, pp. 140-50; Prinzing, op. cit., note 1 above, pp. 214-51.
96. For a number of the locations in Table 2, Guttstadt traces the earliest cases of smallpox in the civilian population to individuals (guards, nurses and sick attendants, clergymen and laundry workers, among others) who had direct or indirect contact with the French POWs. Writing of the epidemics at Münster and Wittenberg, for example, Guttstadt notes that the first civilian cases of smallpox were clerics who had ministered to the French POWs. Likewise, the earliest civilian cases at Stralsrund and Torgau were employees of the lazarets to which ailing prisoners had been assigned. Similar evidence can also be cited for Frankfurt an der Oder, Minden and Stettin, among other locations. See Guttstadt, op. cit., note 12 above, pp. 140-50; Prinzing, op. cit., note 1 above, pp. 214-51.
97. For a number of the locations in Table 2, Guttstadt traces the earliest cases of smallpox in the civilian population to individuals (guards, nurses and sick attendants, clergymen and laundry workers, among others) who had direct or indirect contact with the French POWs. Writing of the epidemics at Münster and Wittenberg, for example, Guttstadt notes that the first civilian cases of smallpox were clerics who had ministered to the French POWs. Likewise, the earliest civilian cases at Stralsrund and Torgau were employees of the lazarets to which ailing prisoners had been assigned. Similar evidence can also be cited for Frankfurt an der Oder, Minden and Stettin, among other locations. See Guttstadt, op. cit., note 12 above, pp. 140-50; Prinzing, op. cit., note 1 above, pp. 214-51.
98. Prinzing, op. cit., note 1 above, pp. 282-5.
99. See, for example, Richard J Evans, Death in Hamburg: society and politics in the cholera years, 1830-1910, Oxford, Clarendon Press, pp. 218-26; Huerkamp, op. cit., note 13 above; Hennock, op. cit., note 13 above.
100. See, for example, Richard J Evans, Death in Hamburg: society and politics in the cholera years, 1830-1910, Oxford, Clarendon Press, pp. 218-26; Huerkamp, op. cit., note 13 above; Hennock, op. cit., note 13 above.
101. See, for example, Richard J Evans, Death in Hamburg: society and politics in the cholera years, 1830-1910, Oxford, Clarendon Press, pp. 218-26; Huerkamp, op. cit., note 13 above; Hennock, op. cit., note 13 above.
102. Smallman-Raynor and Cliff, 'The spatial dynamics of epidemics', op. cit., note 11 above.
103. Smallman-Raynor and Cliff, 'The Philippines insurrection', op. cit., note 11 above.
104. For examples of the role of institutions in the spread of smallpox, see Fenner, et al., op. cit., note 5 above, pp. 201-2; Gwendoline M Ayers, England's first state hospitals and the Metropolitan Asylums Board, 1867-1930, London, Wellcome Institute of the History of Medicine, 1971, pp. 111-15.
105. For examples of the role of institutions in the spread of smallpox, see Fenner, et al., op. cit., note 5 above, pp. 201-2; Gwendoline M Ayers, England's first state hospitals and the Metropolitan Asylums Board, 1867-1930, London, Wellcome Institute of the History of Medicine, 1971, pp. 111-15.