Ensemble cloud model applications to forecasting thunderstorms

Journal of Applied Meteorology

Volumn 41, Issue 4, 2002, Pages 363-383

  Elmore, Kimberly L ^a   Stensrud, David J ^a   Crawford, Kenneth C ^a  

^a NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS LABORATORY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ACCIDENT PREVENTION; ALGORITHMS; CLOUDS; FORECASTING;

MODEL APPLICATIONS;

THUNDERSTORMS;

ENSEMBLE FORECASTING; MODELING; THUNDERSTORM;

UNITED STATES;

EID: 0036540055     PISSN: 08948763     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/1520-0450(2002)041<0363:ECMATF>2.0.CO;2     Document Type: Article

References (52)

1. A method for producing and evaluating probabilistic forecasts from ensemble model integrations
2. Duration of convective radar cloud units
3. The new NMC Mesoscale Eta Model: Description and forecast examples
4. Synoptic-dynamic meteorology in midlatitudes
5. Operational implications of the sensitivity of modeled thunderstorms to thermal perturbations
6. On the use of mesoscale and cloud-scale models in operational forecasting
7. STORMTIPE: A forecasting experiment using a three-dimensional cloud model
8. On the environments of tornadic and nontornadic mesocyclones
9. Airflow and precipitation trajectories within severe local storms which travel to the right of the winds
10. Sensitivity of moist convection forced by boundary layer processes to low-level thermodynamic fields
11. Hourly helicity, instability, and EHI in forecasting supercell tornadoes
12. Test of helicity as a tornado forecast parameter
13. The operational meteorology of convective weather
14. Predicting the uncertainty of numerical weather forecasts: A review
15. Euclidean distance as a similarity metric for principal component analysis
16. Operational problem of convective weather in the national airspace system
17. A study of some measures of forecast verification
18. Analysis of thunderstorm lifetime as a function of size and intensity
19. Objective verification of the SAMEX '98 ensemble forecasts
20. Impact of ice parameterization on the low-level structure of modeled supercell thunderstorms
21. Differentiating between types of severe thunderstorm outbreaks: A preliminary investigation
22. Numerical simulations of the 2 August 1981 CCOPE supercell storm with and without ice microphysics
23. The storm cell identification and tracking algorithm: An enhanced WSR-88D algorithm
24. The simulation of three-dimensional convective storm dynamics
25. The use of a two-dimensional, time-dependent cloud model to predict convective and stratiform clouds and precipitation
26. Theoretical skill of Monte Carlo forecasts
27. Numerical prediction of thunderstorms-Has its time come?
28. Deterministic nonperiodic flow
29. Radar-reflectivity derived thunderstorm parameters applied to storm longevity forecasting
30. A model for assessment of weather forecasts
31. Specification of the scale and magnitude of thermals used to initiate convection in cloud models
32. Numerical model-reality intercomparison tests using small sample statistics
33. The Minneapolis flash flood: Meteorological analysis and operational response
34. Storm scale ensemble experiments with the ARPS model: Preliminary results
35. Discriminating between tornadic and nontornadic thunderstorms using mesoscale model output
36. Using initial condition and model physics perturbations in short-range ensemble simulations of mesoscale convective systems
37. Thirty years of cloud modeling: Does the emperor wear clothes?
38. The dependence of numerically simulated convective storms on vertical wind shear and buoyancy
39. The structure and classification of numerically simulated convective storms in directionally varying wind shears
40. Simulation and analysis of tornado development and decay within a three-dimensional supercell thunderstorm
41. STORMTIPE-95: Results from a convective storm forecast experiment
42. Nowcasting thunderstorms: A status report
43. Convective weather forecasting for FAA applications