Synthetic cognitive modeling of adversaries for effects-based planning

Proceedings of SPIE - The International Society for Optical Engineering

Volumn 4716, Issue , 2002, Pages 236-250

  Davis, Paul K ^a  

^a RAND CORPORATION   (United States)

Author keywords

Cognitive models; Decision models; Effects based operations (EBO); Effects based planning; Model abstraction; Multiperspective modeling (MRMPM); Multiresolution; Multiresolution modeling (MRM); Qualitative models; Synthetic cognitive models (SCMs)

Indexed keywords

BEHAVIORAL RESEARCH; DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; PLANNING;

SYNTHETIC COGNITIVE MODELS (SCM);

MILITARY OPERATIONS;

EID: 0036028480     PISSN: 0277786X     EISSN: None     Source Type: Conference Proceeding    
DOI: 10.1117/12.474918     Document Type: Conference Paper

References (19)

1. Davis, Paul K., Effects-Based Operations: A Grand Challenge for the Analytical Community, RAND, Santa Monico, CA, 2001.
2. Paté-Cornell M.E. and S.D. Guikema: "Probabilistic Modeling of Terrorist Threats: A Systems Analysis Approach to Setting Priorities Among Countermeasures," submitted for publication in Military Operations Research, Working paper of the Department of Management Science and Engineering, Stanford University, 2002.
3. Wagenhals, Lee, "Modeling Effects-based Operations in Support of War Games," Proceedings of the SPIE, Vol. 4367, ed. by Alex Sisti and Dawn Trevisani, 2001.
4. Davis, Paul K. and James Bigelow, Experiments in Multiresolution Modeling, RAND, Santa Monica, CA, 1998.
5. Davis, Paul K., "Applying Artificial Intelligence Techniques to Strategic Level Gaming and Simulation," in Maurice S. Elzas (ed.), Knowledge Based Modelling and Simulation Methodologies, North Holland Publishing Co., Amsterdam, 1986. (available also as RAND P-7120, 1985).
6. Davis, Paul K., An Analyst's Primer for the RAND-ABEL Programming Language, RAND, N-3042-NA, 1990.
7. Davis, Paul K., Some Lessons Learned from Building Red Agents in the RAND Strategy Assessment System (RSAS), RAND, N-3003-OSD. Available also in Military Operations Research Society, Mini-Symposium Proceedings: Human Behavior and Performance as Essential Ingredients in Realistic Modeling of Combat - MORIMOC II, 1989.
8. Woodward, Robert, The Commanders, Simon and Schuster, NY, NY.
9. Davis, Paul K. and John Arquilla, Deterring or Coercing Opponents in Crisis: Lessons from the War With Saddam Hussein, RAND, Santa Monica, CA, 1991.
10. Davis, Paul K. and John Arquilla, Thinking About Opponent Behavior in Crisis and Conflict: A Generic Model for Analysis and Group Discussion, RAND, N-3322-JS, 1991.
11. Davis, Paul K., "Improving Deterrence in the Post-Cold War Era: Some Theory and Implications for Defense Planning," Ch. 8 in New Challenges in Defense Planning, Paul K. Davis (ed.), RAND, Santa Monica, CA, 1994.
12. Arquilla, John and Paul K. Davis, Extended Deterrence, Compellence, and the "Old World Order," RAND, N-3248-JS, 1992.
13. Arquilla, John and Paul K. Davis, Modeling Decisionmaking of Potential Proliferators as Part of Developing Counterproliferation Strategies, RAND MR-467, 1994.
14. Hogarth, Robin, Judgement and Choice, John Wiley and Sons, 1980 (a good summary that includes citations to the seminal research of Kahnemann and Tversky and others).
15. Heuer, Richards J., Psychology of Intelligence Analysis, Central Intelligence Agency, Washington, D.C., 1999.
16. May, Ernest R., and Philip D. Zelikow (ed..), The Kennedy Tapes: Inside the White House During the Cuban Missile Crisis, Belknap, Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA, 1997.
17. National Research Council, Post-Cold War Conflict Deterrence, National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., 1977. (highlights of the author's work are included as Appendix H).
18. Clark, Wesley, Waging Modern War, Public Affairs, Perseus Books, Cambridge, MA, 2001.
19. Kahnemann, Daniel and Jacob Tversky, "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," Eonomtrica, Vol. 47, pp 263-291, 1979.