Measuring ethnic party success in Romania, Slovakia, and Ukraine

Problems of Post-Communism

Volumn 48, Issue 4, 2001, Pages 59-69

  Stroschein, Sherrill ^a  

^a OHIO UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 0035535787     PISSN: 10758216     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/10758216.2001.11655943     Document Type: Article

References (47)

1. Maria Szekelyi, "Distance and Proximity: Hungarians and Rumanians in Transylvania" (paper presented at the Association for the Study of Nationalities Conference, New York, April 1999). The research project assessed separate perceptions of social distance between Hungarians and Romanians on a nine-degree Bogardus scale. Antal Orkeny and Gyorgy Csepeli were also involved in this research.
2. Irina Culic, István Horváth, Marius Lazǎr, and László Magyari Nándor, Romanians and Hungarians in the Post-Communist Transition: Mental Images and Inter-Ethnic Relations in Transylvania (Cluj-Napoca: Babeş-Bolyai University, Research Center for Inter-Ethnic Relations [CCRIT], Department of Sociology, Carpathian Basin Project, 1998), p. 26.
3. Sándor Bordás, Pavol Frič, Katarina Haidová, Péter Hunčik, and Róbert Máthé, Counter-Proof: The Examination of the Slovak-Hungarian Relationship with Sociological and Ethnopsychological Methods in Slovakia (Bratislava: Sándor Márai Foundation, 1995), pp. 73, 76.
4. Maria Szekelyi and Mircea Kivu, "O abordare empiricǎ a relaţiei dintre Români i Maghiari" (An Empirical Approach to Relations Between Romanians and Hungarians), Revista de Cercetari Sociale 1, no. 4 (Bucharest) (December 1994): 11. A later Hungarian version (with some changes) can be found in Mara-Ileana Galat and Mircea Kivu, "Románok és magyarok szociológiai prespecktíva" (A Sociologival Perspective on Romanians and Hungarians), Korunk (Cluj/Kolozsvár) (August 1995): 38. These findings are predicted by the mechanics of heterogeneity outlined by Peter Blau in Inequality and Heterogeneity: A Primitive Theory of Social Structure (New York: Free Press, 1977).
5. Maria Szekelyi and Mircea Kivu, "O abordare empiricǎ a relaţiei dintre Români i Maghiari" (An Empirical Approach to Relations Between Romanians and Hungarians), Revista de Cercetari Sociale 1, no. 4 (Bucharest) (December 1994): 11. A later Hungarian version (with some changes) can be found in Mara-Ileana Galat and Mircea Kivu, "Románok és magyarok szociológiai prespecktíva" (A Sociologival Perspective on Romanians and Hungarians), Korunk (Cluj/Kolozsvár) (August 1995): 38. These findings are predicted by the mechanics of heterogeneity outlined by Peter Blau in Inequality and Heterogeneity: A Primitive Theory of Social Structure (New York: Free Press, 1977).
6. Maria Szekelyi and Mircea Kivu, "O abordare empiricǎ a relaţiei dintre Români i Maghiari" (An Empirical Approach to Relations Between Romanians and Hungarians), Revista de Cercetari Sociale 1, no. 4 (Bucharest) (December 1994): 11. A later Hungarian version (with some changes) can be found in Mara-Ileana Galat and Mircea Kivu, "Románok és magyarok szociológiai prespecktíva" (A Sociologival Perspective on Romanians and Hungarians), Korunk (Cluj/Kolozsvár) (August 1995): 38. These findings are predicted by the mechanics of heterogeneity outlined by Peter Blau in Inequality and Heterogeneity: A Primitive Theory of Social Structure (New York: Free Press, 1977).
7. Bordás et al., Counter-Proof, p. 124. The margin was 25 percent to 5 percent.
8. I am indeed assuming that individuals do not tend to vote for ethnic parties that promote an ethnicity different from their own. In Central Europe, exceptions to this rule are few and far between.
9. Donald L. Horowitz, Ethnic Groups in Conflict (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1985), pp. 293, 326, 346.
10. Gary King, A Solution to the Ecological Inference Problem: Reconstructing Individual Behavior from Aggregate Data (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1997), esp. chap. 1.
11. Sherrill Stroschein, "Contention and Coexistence: Hungarian Minorities and Inter-ethnic Relations in Romania, Slovakia, and Ukraine," Ph.D. dissertation, Columbia University, 2000.
12. For a relatively convincing version of this argument, see Jack Snyder, From Voting to Violence: Democratization and Nationalist Conflict (New York: Norton, 2000). I do not mean to say that elites and institutions do not play a role in identity and interest formation, but they are far from the whole story, which involves an interaction between elites and populations in the form of issue resonance.
13. Horowitz, Ethnic Groups in Conflict, p. 348 and chap. 15.
14. Juan Linz and Alfred Stepan, The Breakdown of Democratic Regimes: Crisis, Breakdown, and Reequilibration (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1978).
15. Jon Elster, Claus Offe, and Ulrich K. Preuss, Institutional Design in Post-Communist Societies: Rebuilding the Ship at Sea (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1998), pp. 147-48.
16. The asymmetric relationship between ethnic parties played a role in this outcome, as will be noted below.
17. Slovakia and Transcarpathia became part of Czechoslovakia. Transcarpathia was transferred to the Soviet Union after World War II and is now part of Ukraine. Slovakia became a fully independent state in 1993.
18. Because only regions containing ethnic Hungarian parties were included in the project, only this portion of Ukraine, where Hungarians live, appears in the study. Figures for Romania from the 1992 Romanian census, compiled by the Comisia Naţionalǎ pentru Statisticǎ, Recensǎmântul populaţiei şi locuinţelor din 7 ianuarie 1992 (Population and Housing Census of January 7, 1992), vol. 1 (Bucharest, 1994), p. 708; Romanians comprise 89.47 percent. Figures for Slovakia from the Statistical Office of the Slovak Republic, Štatistická ročenka Slovenskej republiky, 1993 (Statistical Yearbook of the Population Separated by Nationality and Mother Tongue) (Bratislava, 1994), p. 125; Slovaks comprise 85.66 percent. Figures for Transcarpathia, Ukraine, from the 1989 Soviet census, in Sklad nasseleniya po okremich national'nostyach i ridnii movi (Collection of the Population Separated by Nationality and Mother Tongue), obtained from Károly Koscis, Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Geographical Division, Budapest; Ukrainians/Ruthenians comprise 78.41 percent of the population of Transcarpathia.
19. Because only regions containing ethnic Hungarian parties were included in the project, only this portion of Ukraine, where Hungarians live, appears in the study. Figures for Romania from the 1992 Romanian census, compiled by the Comisia Naţionalǎ pentru Statisticǎ, Recensǎmântul populaţiei şi locuinţelor din 7 ianuarie 1992 (Population and Housing Census of January 7, 1992), vol. 1 (Bucharest, 1994), p. 708; Romanians comprise 89.47 percent. Figures for Slovakia from the Statistical Office of the Slovak Republic, Štatistická ročenka Slovenskej republiky, 1993 (Statistical Yearbook of the Population Separated by Nationality and Mother Tongue) (Bratislava, 1994), p. 125; Slovaks comprise 85.66 percent. Figures for Transcarpathia, Ukraine, from the 1989 Soviet census, in Sklad nasseleniya po okremich national'nostyach i ridnii movi (Collection of the Population Separated by Nationality and Mother Tongue), obtained from Károly Koscis, Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Geographical Division, Budapest; Ukrainians/Ruthenians comprise 78.41 percent of the population of Transcarpathia.
20. Horowitz, Ethnic Groups in Conflict, p. 291.
21. Students can currently study in Hungarian in several departments at the university in Cluj, and entrance exams to these departments are also administered in Hungarian.
22. The law, following West European standards, allows minorities to conduct official business in their mother tongue if they comprise more than 20 percent of a community. Among other disputes, the Hungarian party wanted a threshold of 10 percent.
23. Autonomy can take cultural, political, or territorial forms.
24. Some analysts regard the KDH, or Christian Democratic Movement, as an ethnic party (Elster, Offe, and Preuss, Institutional Design in Post-Communist Societies, p. 137). However, this party is not defined by a national program (as is the SNS), and it currently serves in the governing coalition with the Hungarians. Nor do I count the HZDS as an ethnic party, because its program explicitly denies prioritizing one ethnic group.
25. Culic, Horváth, Lazǎr, and Nándor, "Romanians and Hungarians in the Post-Communist Transition," p. 29. These questions were not asked for Romanian parties, only personalities.
26. Culic, Horváth, Lazǎr, and Nándor, CCRIT survey, published in CCRIT, Közvéleménykutatás a Romániai magyarok körében (Popular Opinion Survey of the Hungarians in Romania) (Cluj, 1999), p. 13. Even if respondents did not answer truthfully, the fact that so few would admit to voting for other parties (even if they had) shows the strong Hungarian norm of voting for this party.
27. These high levels of support might indicate that a small number of Slovaks vote for Hungarian parties: Darina Malová, "The Development of Hungarian Political Parties During the Three Election Cycles (1990-1994) in Slovakia," in Slovakia: Parliamentary Elections 1994: Causes, Consequences, Prospects, ed. Soňa Szomolányi and Grigorij Mesežnikov (Bratislava: Slovak Political Science Association, 1995), p. 208. However, this impression may also be due to the fact that the relatively high number of intermarriages in Slovakia (where both groups are Catholic) has resulted in individuals who "switch" identities under different conditions.
28. By law, parties must have support in a certain number of oblasts in order to be legally registered.
29. Ruthenians are not allotted a separate census category and are counted as Ukrainians.
30. Navinii Zakarpati (November 30, 1991).
31. For a summary of this vote, see Alfred Reisch, "Transcarpathia's Hungarian Minority and the Autonomy Issue," Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty Research Report, February 7, 1992; "Legyen-e autonómia Kárpátalján? (I)" (Should There Be Autonomy in Transcarpathia?), Karpáti igaz szo (October 5, 1991); and Paul Robert Magocsi, "The Birth of a New Nation, or the Return of an Old Problem? The Rusyns of East Central Europe," Canadian Slavonic Papers 34, no. 3 (September 1992): 210-11. On the Berehovo vote for autonomy, see "December Elsején népszavazáson döntünk a magyar nemzetiségi körzet megalakításáról" (December 1 We Will Decide on the Establishment of the Hungarian Ethnic District via Referendum), Beregi hirlap (September 17, 1991).
32. For a summary of this vote, see Alfred Reisch, "Transcarpathia's Hungarian Minority and the Autonomy Issue," Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty Research Report, February 7, 1992; "Legyen-e autonómia Kárpátalján? (I)" (Should There Be Autonomy in Transcarpathia?), Karpáti igaz szo (October 5, 1991); and Paul Robert Magocsi, "The Birth of a New Nation, or the Return of an Old Problem? The Rusyns of East Central Europe," Canadian Slavonic Papers 34, no. 3 (September 1992): 210-11. On the Berehovo vote for autonomy, see "December Elsején népszavazáson döntünk a magyar nemzetiségi körzet megalakításáról" (December 1 We Will Decide on the Establishment of the Hungarian Ethnic District via Referendum), Beregi hirlap (September 17, 1991).
33. For a summary of this vote, see Alfred Reisch, "Transcarpathia's Hungarian Minority and the Autonomy Issue," Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty Research Report, February 7, 1992; "Legyen-e autonómia Kárpátalján? (I)" (Should There Be Autonomy in Transcarpathia?), Karpáti igaz szo (October 5, 1991); and Paul Robert Magocsi, "The Birth of a New Nation, or the Return of an Old Problem? The Rusyns of East Central Europe," Canadian Slavonic Papers 34, no. 3 (September 1992): 210-11. On the Berehovo vote for autonomy, see "December Elsején népszavazáson döntünk a magyar nemzetiségi körzet megalakításáról" (December 1 We Will Decide on the Establishment of the Hungarian Ethnic District via Referendum), Beregi hirlap (September 17, 1991).
34. For a summary of this vote, see Alfred Reisch, "Transcarpathia's Hungarian Minority and the Autonomy Issue," Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty Research Report, February 7, 1992; "Legyen-e autonómia Kárpátalján? (I)" (Should There Be Autonomy in Transcarpathia?), Karpáti igaz szo (October 5, 1991); and Paul Robert Magocsi, "The Birth of a New Nation, or the Return of an Old Problem? The Rusyns of East Central Europe," Canadian Slavonic Papers 34, no. 3 (September 1992): 210-11. On the Berehovo vote for autonomy, see "December Elsején népszavazáson döntünk a magyar nemzetiségi körzet megalakításáról" (December 1 We Will Decide on the Establishment of the Hungarian Ethnic District via Referendum), Beregi hirlap (September 17, 1991).
35. Reliable electoral data for Ukraine were not broken down at the city level.
36. These separate sets of data make a regression analysis an unviable option.
37. "High" and "low" classifications were given to locales with values that differed more than + 5 or -5 points with the index. "Medium-high" and "medium-low" classifications were given to values with a difference of less than + 5 or -5.
38. Horowitz, Ethnic Groups in Conflict, pp. 306, 342-49.
39. Szekelyi, "Distance and Proximity"; Culic et al., CCRIT survey; Galat and Kivu, "Románok és magyarok szociológiai prespecktiva"; Bordás et al., Counter-Proof. See also David Laitin, Identity in Formation: The Russian-Speaking Populations in the Near Abroad (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1998).
40. Szekelyi, "Distance and Proximity"; Culic et al., CCRIT survey; Galat and Kivu, "Románok és magyarok szociológiai prespecktiva"; Bordás et al., Counter-Proof. See also David Laitin, Identity in Formation: The Russian-Speaking Populations in the Near Abroad (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1998).
41. Szekelyi, "Distance and Proximity"; Culic et al., CCRIT survey; Galat and Kivu, "Románok és magyarok szociológiai prespecktiva"; Bordás et al., Counter-Proof. See also David Laitin, Identity in Formation: The Russian-Speaking Populations in the Near Abroad (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1998).
42. Szekelyi, "Distance and Proximity"; Culic et al., CCRIT survey; Galat and Kivu, "Románok és magyarok szociológiai prespecktiva"; Bordás et al., Counter-Proof. See also David Laitin, Identity in Formation: The Russian-Speaking Populations in the Near Abroad (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1998).
43. Szekelyi, "Distance and Proximity"; Culic et al., CCRIT survey; Galat and Kivu, "Románok és magyarok szociológiai prespecktiva"; Bordás et al., Counter-Proof. See also David Laitin, Identity in Formation: The Russian-Speaking Populations in the Near Abroad (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1998).
44. Here I used an average of the results from the 1994 and 1998 Slovak elections.
45. Beregi hirlap (December 5, 1991); Reisch, "Transcarpathia's Hungarian Minority."
46. Beregi hirlap (December 5, 1991); Reisch, "Transcarpathia's Hungarian Minority."
47. A total of 53,442 votes was accepted as valid (Beregi hirlap), and the district's total population is 114,336. Source for district nationality statistics: 1989 Soviet census, from Sklad nasseleniya po okremich national 'nostyach i ridnii movi.