Bayesian network approach to making inferences in causal maps

European Journal of Operational Research

Volumn 128, Issue 3, 2001, Pages 479-498

  Nadkarni, Sucheta ^a   Shenoy, Prakash P ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF KANSAS   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

DECISION THEORY; GRAPHICAL USER INTERFACES; INFERENCE ENGINES; KNOWLEDGE REPRESENTATION; MARKETING; PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT;

BAYESIAN NETWORKS; CAUSAL MAPS; COGNITIVE MAPS;

OPERATIONS RESEARCH;

EID: 0035254130     PISSN: 03772217     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/S0377-2217(99)00368-9     Document Type: Article

References (47)

1. Axelrod R. Structure of Decision: The Cognitive Maps of Political Elites. 1976;Princeton University press, Princeton, NJ.
2. Bougon M. Uncovering cognitive maps: The 'self-Q' technique. Morgan G. Beyond Method: A Study of Organizational Research Strategies. 1983;Sage, Beverley Hills, CA.
3. Bougon M. Congregate cognitive maps: A unified dynamic theory of organization and strategy. Journal of Management Studies. 29:1992;369-389.
4. Bougon M.K., Weick K.E., Binkhorst D. Cognition in organizations: An analysis of the Utrecht Jazz Orchestra. Administrative Science Quarterly. 22:1977;606-639.
5. Carley K. Extracting team mental models through textual analysis. Journal of Organizational Behaviour. 18:1997;533-558.
6. Carley K., Palmquist M. Extracting, representing and analyzing mental models. Social Forces. 70(3):1992;601-636.
7. Charniak E., McDermott D. Introduction to Artificial Intelligence. 1985;Addison-Wesley, Reading, MA.
8. Chen K., Mathes J.C., Jarboe K., Wolfe J. Value oriented social decision analysis: Enhancing mutual understanding to resolve public policy issues. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man and Cybernetics. 9:1979;567-580.
9. Churchman C.W., Ackoff R.L., Arnoff E.L. Introduction to Operations Research. 1957;Wiley, New York.
10. Clemen R.T. Making Hard Decisions - An Introduction to Decision Analysis. 1996;Duxbury Press, Belmont, CA.
11. Darwiche, A., Goldszmidt, M., 1994. On the relation between kappa calculus and probabilistic reasoning. In: Mantaras, R.L., Poole, D. (Eds.), Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence: Proceedings of the 10th Conference. Morgan Kaufmann, San Francisco, CA, pp. 145-153.
12. Dawid A.P. Conditional independence in statistical theory (with discussion). Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B. 41(1):1979;1-31.
13. Eden, C., 1991. Working on problems using cognitive mapping. In: Littlechild, S.C., Shutler, M. (Eds.), Operations Research Management. Prentice-Hall, London, pp. 236-259.
14. Eden C. On the nature of cognitive maps. Journal of Management Studies. 29:1992;261-266.
15. Eden C., Jones S., Sims D. Thinking in Organizations. 1979;Macmillan, London.
16. Eden C., Jones S. Publish or perish?: A case study. Journal of Operational Research Society. 31:1980;131-139.
17. Eden C.F., Ackermann F., Cropper S. The analysis of cause maps. Journal of Management Studies. 29(3):1992;309-323.
18. Eden C., Ackermann F. Evaluating strategy: Its role within the context of strategic control. Journal of Operational Research Society. 44:1993;853-865.
19. Fiol M. Explaining strategic alliance in the chemical industry. Huff A.S. Mapping Strategic Thought. 1990;227-249 Wiley, Chichester, UK.
20. Fiol M., Huff A.S. Maps for managers: Where are we? Where do we go from here? Journal of Management Studies. 29:1992;269-285.
21. Forrester J.W. Industrial Dynamics. 1961;MIT Press, Cambridge, MA.
22. Heckerman D. Bayesian networks for data mining. Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery. 1:1996;79-119.
23. Henrion, M., 1989. Some practical issues in constructing belief networks. In: Kanal, L.N., Levitt, T.S., Lemmer, J.F. (Eds.), Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, vol. 3. North-Holland, Amsterdam, pp. 161-173.
24. Henrion, M., Provan, G., Favero, B.D., Sanders, G., 1994. An experimental comparison of numerical and qualitative probabilistic reasoning. In: Mantaras, R.L., Poole, D. (Eds.), Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence: Proceedings of the 10th Conference. Morgan Kaufmann, San Francisco, CA, pp. 319-326.
25. Howard, R., Matheson, J., 1981. Influence diagrams. In: Howard, R., Matheson, J. (Eds.), Readings on the Principles and Applications of Decision Analysis, vol. 2. Strategic Decisions Group, Menlo Park, CA, pp. 721-762.
26. Huff, A.S., 1990. Mapping Strategic Thought, Wiley, Chichester, UK.
27. Jaques, E., Clement, S.C., 1996. Executive leadership - A practical guide to managing complexity. Cason, Hall and Company.
28. Jensen F.V., Lauritzen S.L., Olesen K.G. Bayesian updating in causal probabilistic networks by local computation. Computational Statistics Quarterly. 4:1990;269-282.
29. Klein J.H., Cooper D.F. Cognitive maps of decision workers in complex game. Journal of Operational Research Society. 33:1982;63-71.
30. Knoke, K., Kuklinski, J.H., 1982. Network Analysis. Sage, Beverley Hills, CA.
31. Laskey, K.B., Mahoney, S.M., 1997. Network fragments: Representing knowledge or constructing probabilistic models. In: Geiger, D., Shenoy, P.P. (Eds.), Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence: Proceedings of the 13th Conference. Morgan Kaufmann, San Francisco, CA, pp. 334-341.
32. Laukkanen, M., 1996. Comparative cause mapping of organizational cognition. In: Meindl, J.R., Stubbart C., Porac J.F. (Eds.), Cognition Within and Between Organizations. Sage, Beverley Hills, CA, pp. 1-45.
33. Lauritzen S.L., Speigelhalter D.J. Local computations with probabilities on graphical structures and their application to expert systems (with discussion). Journal of Royal Statistical Society Series B. 50(2):1988;157-224.
34. Lauritzen S.L., Dawid A.P., Larsen B.N., Leimer H.-G. Independence properties of directed Markov fields. Networks. 20(5):1990;491-505.
35. Pearl J. Fusion, propagation, and structuring in belief networks. Artificial Intelligence. 29:1986;241-288.
36. Pearl J. Probabilistic Reasoning in Intelligent Systems: Networks of Plausible Inference. 1988;Morgan Kaufmann, San Mateo, CA.
37. Pradhan, M., Provan, G., Middleton B., Henrion, M., 1994. Knowledge engineering for large belief networks. In: Lopez de Mantaras, R., Poole, D. (Eds.), Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence: Proceedings of the 10th Conference. Morgan Kaufmann, San Francisco, CA, pp. 484-490.
38. Ross L.L., Hall R.I. Influence diagrams and organizational power. Administrative Science Quarterly. 25:1980;57-71.
39. Shachter R.D., Heckerman D.E. A backwards view for assessment. AI Magazine. 8(3):1987;55-61.
40. Shenoy, P.P., Shafer, G., 1990. Axioms for probability and belief-function propagation. In: Shachter, R.D., Levitt, T.S., Lemmer, J.F., Kanal, L.N. (Eds.), Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, vol. 4. North-Holland, Amsterdam, pp. 169-198. Reprinted in: Shafer, G., Pearl, J. (Eds.), Readings in Uncertain Reasoning. Morgan Kaufmann, San Mateo, CA, 1990, pp. 575-610.
41. Shenoy, P.P., Shafer, G., 1990. Axioms for probability and belief-function propagation. In: Shachter, R.D., Levitt, T.S., Lemmer, J.F., Kanal, L.N. (Eds.), Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, vol. 4. North-Holland, Amsterdam, pp. 169-198. Reprinted in: Shafer, G., Pearl, J. (Eds.), Readings in Uncertain Reasoning. Morgan Kaufmann, San Mateo, CA, 1990, pp. 575-610.
42. Speigelhalter D.J., Dawid A.P., Lauritzen S.L., Cowell R.G. Bayesian analysis in expert systems. Statistical Science. 8(3):1993;219-283.
43. Spetzler, C.S., Staël von Holstein, C.S., 1975. Probability encoding in decision analysis. Management Science 22 (3), 340-358.
44. Swan J.A. Exploring knowledge and cognitions in decisions about technological innovation: Mapping managerial cognitions. Human Relations. 48(11):1995;1241-1270.
45. Wang S. A dynamic perspective of differences between cognitive maps. Journal of the Operational Research Society. 47:1996;538-549.
46. Wolstenholme E.F., Coyle R.G. The development of system dynamics as a methodology for systems description and qualitative analysis. Journal of Operational Research Society. 34:1983;569-681.
47. Winston P.H. Artificial Intelligence. 1984;Addison-Wesley, Reading, MA.