The Austrian foresight program: Organization and expert profile

International Journal of Technology Management

Volumn 21, Issue 7-8, 2001, Pages 739-755

  Aichholzer, Georg ^a,b  

^a ERICH SCHMID INSTITUTE OF MATERIALS SCIENCE   (Austria)

^b VIENNA UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS   (Austria)

Author keywords

Austria; Comparative; Delphi method; Expert base; Germany; Innovations; Mega trends; Methodology; Small countries; Social foresight; Technology foresight

Indexed keywords

MEDICINE; PUBLIC POLICY; TRANSPORTATION;

EXPERT PROFILE;

TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING;

EID: 0035006447     PISSN: 02675730     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1504/ijtm.2001.002947     Document Type: Article

References (25)

1. Gavigan, J.P. and Cahill, E. (1997) Overview of Recent European and non-European National Technology Foresight Studies, Technical Report No. TR97/02, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS) Seville, Spain.
2. Grupp, H. and Linstone, H.A. (1999) 'National Technology Foresight activities around the globe: resurrection and new paradigms', Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 60,No. 1,pp.85-94.
3. Blind, K., Cuhls, K. and Grupp, H. (1999) 'Current foresight activities in Central Europe', Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 60, No. 1, pp. 15-35.
4. Martin, B. and Johnston, R. (1999) 'Technology foresight for wiring up the national innovation system', Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 60, No. 1, pp.37-54.
5. Soete, L. (1988) 'Technical change and international implications for small countries', in C. Freeman and B.A. Lundvall (Eds.), Small Countries Facing the Technological Revolution, Frances Pinter, London, p.98.
6. Katzenstein, P. (1985) Small States in World Markets. Industrial Policy in Europe, Cornell University Press, Ithaka, New York.
7. Walsh, V. (1988) Technology and the competitiveness of small countries', in C. Freeman and B.A. Lundvall (Eds.) Small Countries Facing the Technological Revolution, Frances Pinter, London, pp.37-66.
8. OECD Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (1996) Special Issue on Government Technology Foresight Exercises, STI Review, No. 17, pp.149-175.
9. The results have been summarized in Foresight Steering Committee (1996) A Vital Knowledge System. Dutch Research with a View to the Future, Foresight Steering Committee, Amsterdam.
10. Ministry of Economic Affairs (1998) Technology Radar (report in five volumes): Ministry of Economic Affairs, Den Haag.
11. OECD Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (1996) Special Issue on Governmental Technology Foresight Exercises, STI Review, No. 17, OECD, Paris, pp.123-148.
12. ASTEC Australian Science and Technology Council (1996) Developing Long-term Strategies for Science and Technology in Australia: Outcomes of the Study: Matching Science and Technology to Future Needs: 2010, AGPS, Canberra.
13. Office of Science and Technology (1998) The Future in Focus: a Summary of National Foresight Programmes, Department of Trade and Industry, London.
14. ICSTI Irish Council for Science, Technology and Innovation (1999) Technology Foresight Ireland, Dublin.
15. Havas, A. (1998) TEP - The Hungarian Technology Foresight Programme, leaflet available at National Committee for Technological Development (OMFB), Budapest.
16. Martin, B. (1995) 'A review of recent overseas programmes', Technology Foresight, Vol. 6, Office of Science and Technology, UK, pp.38-44.
17. The Technology Foresight part was designed and carried out by the Institute of Technology Assessment (ITA) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences, while the Institute of Trend Analysis (ITK) in Vienna was responsible for the Society and Culture Foresight.
18. BMFT Bundesministerium für Forschung und Technologie (1993) Deutscher Delphi-Berieht zur Entvicklung von Wissenschaft und Technik, Bonn, p. 191.
19. Todt, O. and Luján, J.L. (1998) 'Social technology foresight: the case of genetic engineering', The IPTS Report, Vol. 26, July.
20. ITA Institut für Technikfolgen-Abschätzung (1998) Technologie Delphi I. Konzept und Überblick, Delphi Report Austria, No. l, Bundesministerium für Wissenschaft und Verkehr, Vienna, p.37.
21. Institut für Trendanalysen und Krisenforschung (1998) Gesellschafts-und Kultur Delphi I. Ergebnisse und Maßnahmenvorschläge, Delphi Report Austria, No. 5, Bundesministerium für Wissenschaft und Verkehr, Vienna, p.14.
22. Rust, H. (1998) Österreich 2013: Eine Querschnittsanalyse des Programmes Delphi Austria, Delphi Report Austria, No. 4, Bundesministerium für Wissenschaft und Verkehr, Vienna.
23. Cuhls, K., Blind, K. and Grupp, H. (1998) Delphi '98 Umfrage. Studie zur Globalen Entwicklung von Wissenschaft und Technik, Fraunhofer Institut für Systemtechnik und Innovationsforschung: Karlsruhe.
24. Four types of world views which are rather similar to these found among the Technology Delphi experts have been identified among the respondents of the Society and Culture Delphi: (1) Civilizational-global pessimism; (2) Ecological optimism; (3) Economy and society pessimism; and (4) Emancipatory progress optimism [21].
25. For instance, a study on the 'Future of vocational training and retraining' has been undertaken by the Institut für Berufs- und Erwachsenenbildung at the University of Linz (IBE) within the framework of an international study commissioned by the European Foundation for the Promotion of Vocational Training (CEDEFOP) Berlin.