Public foresight exercises at an intermediate level: The French national programs and the experience of Bordeaux

International Journal of Technology Management

Volumn 21, Issue 7-8, 2001, Pages 726-738

  Belis Bergouignan, Marie Claude ^a,c   Lung, Yannick ^a   Héraud, Jean Alain ^b,d,e  

^a UNIVERSITÉ DE BORDEAUX   (France)

^b UNIVERSITÉ LOUIS PASTEUR   (France)

^c Equipe Indust Innov I   (France)

^d UNIVERSITÉ DE STRASBOURG   (France)

^e BETA ^*

Author keywords

Foresight; Innovation policy; Institutional context; Intermediate levels of policy; Regional national articulation; Science and technology evaluation

Indexed keywords

COMMUNICATION; PUBLIC POLICY;

INNOVATION POLICY;

TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING;

EID: 0035004885     PISSN: 02675730     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1504/ijtm.2001.002946     Document Type: Article

References (29)

1. STI Review (1996) No. 17, OECD.
2. Héraud, J-A. and Cuhls, K. (1999) 'Current foresight activities in France, Spain and Italy', Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 60, pp.55-70.
3. In the late 1950s, Gaston Berger created the concept of prospective, as a general analytical method and pro-active attitude towards the future. For a review of the different methods of prospective, see [4].
4. Godet, M. (1997) Manuel de Prospective Stratégique, Dunod, Paris.
5. Cf Georghiou, L. 'The UK technology foresight program', Futures, Vol. 28, No. 4, pp.359-377.
6. Cf the document of the Ministry: BMFT (1993) Deutscher Delphi - Bericht zur Enfrvicklung von Wissenschaft und Technik, Bonn,
7. and for a larger audience, the book Grupp, H. (1995) Der Delphi-Report, Innovationen für Unsere Zukunft, Deutscher Verlags-Anstalt, Stuttgart.
8. See: NISTEP (1992) The Fifth Technology Forecast Survey - Future Technology in Japan, Science and Technology Agency (STA) Tokyo, November,
9. and the comparative study: ISI, NISTEP (1994) Outlook for Japanese and German Technology Forecast Surveys, NISTEP Report No. 33, STA, Tokyo, April.
10. BMBF (1996) Delphi-Bericht 1995 zur Entwicklung von Wissenschaft und Technik - Mini-Delphi, Bonn. In that study on some specific technological fields, the research institutes ISI for Germany and NISTEP for Japan cooperated in order to build partially common lists of topics.
11. See Grupp, H. (Ed.) (1993) Technologie am Beginn des 21. Jahrhunderts, Fraunhofer Institute ISI, Karlsruhe, Physica, Heidelberg.
12. For an abridged version, see: Grupp, H. (1994) 'Technology at the beginning of the 21st Century', Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, Vol. 6, No. 4, pp.379-400.
13. See BETA (1995) Enquete sur les Technologies du Futur par la Méthode Delphi, Report to the Ministry of Higher Education and Research (MESR) Université Louis Pasteur, Strasbourg, April and May.
14. For a short presentation of the results, see Quévreux, A. (1996) 'Les dynamiques technologiques pour l'an 2010 en France', STI Review No. 1, pp.111-133, OECD, Paris.
15. For an example of statistical analysis and methodological reflection, see Héraud, J-A., Munier, F. and Nanopoulos, K. (1997) 'Méthode Delphi: une étude de cas sur les technologies du futur', Futuribles, No. 218, pp.33-53.
16. Ministère de l'Industrie (DGSI) (1995) Les 100 Technologies Clés pour l'Industrie Française à l'Horizon 2000, Paris.
17. Delphi Technopolis (1997) Regional foresight project performed by BETA (Université Louis Pasteur, Strasbourg) and IERSO (Université Montesquieu, Bordeaux) for the science park organization Bordeaux Technopolis, financed by the Conseil Général de la Gironde and the European Union. The final document was issued by Bordeaux Technopolis.
18. Intermediate documents: Bélis-Bergouignan, M-C., Lung, Y. (1997) Delphi-Technopolis: une Prospective Technologique Régionale. Les compétences scientifiques et industrielles de la région bordelaise face aux défis technologiques du futur, Report to Conseil Général de la Gironde, IERSO, Université Montesquieu, Pessac, France.
19. Héraud, J-A., (1997) Delphi-Technopolis: L'application à la Région de Bordeaux des Enquêtes Prospectives Nationales (Delphi et Technologies-Clés), Report to Conseil Général de la Gironde, BETA, Université Louis Pasteur, Strasbourg
20. Martin, B. (1995) 'Foresight in science and technology', Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, Vol. 7, No. 2, pp. 140.
21. Berger, G. (1967) Etapes de la Prospective, PUF, Paris.
22. The French review Futuribles.
23. ASTPP: Advanced Science and Technology Policy Planning, research network supported by the TSER program of the DG XII of the European Commission for the elaboration of science and technology policy options for Europe. The major objectives of the ASTPP project are: to study planning methods involving the integration of technology foresight, technology assessment and science and technology evaluation; to interlink the growing but still dispersed experience in the three areas in Europe; to adapt this experience to the needs of policy planning at the European and the members states' levels.
24. Kline, S.J. and Rosenberg, N. (1986) 'An overview of innovation', in R. Landau and N. Rosenberg (Eds.), The Positive Sum Strategy: Harnessing Technology for Economic Growth, pp.75-305, The National Academy Press, Washington DC.
25. Gibbons, M. (1994) The New Production of Knowledge: the Dynamics of Science and Research in Contemporary Societies, Sage Publications, London.
26. There is for instance an aspect that underlines clearly the policy orientation of the French study on critical technologies. In the foreword of the report it is stressed that important technologies will not be included in the list of the 100 key technologies wherever they are able to develop in an autonomous way, needing no public support, special coordination or publicity, etc. Conversely, the mentioned critical technologies will necessitate involvement of the state (or public agencies, local authorities, etc.) as sponsor, legislator, client, supplier of knowledge and competencies, etc. In a foresight exercise such as Delphi, every possible important technological trend is supposed to be mentioned.
27. Five to ten years in the case of the French 100 Technologies Clés, instead of up to 30 years for Delphi.
28. The enquiry gathered 3388 experts (well balanced in proportion between academic, industrial and administrative circles) and led to 1273 responses for the first round (38%) and 1122 for the second. For comparison: this is a higher number of participants than in the similar German experience. (See [13]).
29. If France had followed the model of Germany (the equivalent German Ministry, BMBF, having played a quite stronger role to ensure publicity and diffusion of the results) other regions could have undertaken their own experiences on the basis of the national exercise. In doing so, several German Laender have proven they were not discouraged by the large scope and long run perspective of the national Delphi.