The health and wealth of nations

Science

Volumn 287, Issue 5456, 2000, Pages 1207-1209

  Horton, Richard ^a  

^a THE LANCET   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ACQUIRED IMMUNE DEFICIENCY SYNDROME; ARTICLE; COST OF ILLNESS; DEVELOPING COUNTRY; ECONOMICS; FERTILITY; HUMAN; INCOME; LIFE EXPECTANCY; MORTALITY; POPULATION DYNAMICS; PUBLIC HEALTH; DEMOGRAPHY; ECONOMIC ASPECT; HEALTH; HEALTH STATUS; PRIORITY JOURNAL; PRODUCTIVITY; SHORT SURVEY;

ACQUIRED IMMUNODEFICIENCY SYNDROME; COST OF ILLNESS; DEVELOPING COUNTRIES; ECONOMICS; FERTILITY; HUMANS; INCOME; LIFE EXPECTANCY; MORTALITY; POPULATION DYNAMICS; PUBLIC HEALTH;

EID: 0034681484     PISSN: 00368075     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1126/science.287.5456.1207     Document Type: Article

References (15)

1. Eventually, this process will lead to large cohorts of retired people. Although one might surmise that this will act as a drag on economic growth, the data indicate otherwise. Presumably, this is because many elderly people work (or enable others to work by minding their children), some of them continue to save, and many continue to impart their accumulated knowledge to others. Nevertheless, the demographic dividend is not permanent. Eventually, the large cohorts pass on, and their effect on the age distribution diminishes. Demographic change thus creates a window of opportunity for economic growth, but not one that remains perpetually open (5).
2. D. E. Bloom and D. Canning, in Population Does Matter: Demography, Growth, and Poverty in the Developing World, N. Birdsall, A. C. Kelley, S. Sinding, Eds. (Oxford Univ. Press, New York, in press).
3. For an up-to-date list of citations, see World Health Organization, World Health Report 1999: Making a Difference (WHO, Geneva, 1999).
4. See J. Strauss and D. Thomas [J. Econ. Lit. 36, 766 (1998)] for a comprehensive review of related evidence, based on household surveys, of the links between health and productivity.
5. D. E. Bloom and J. G. Williamson, World Bank Econ. Rev. 12 (3), 419 (1998).
6. R. A. Easterlin, "How beneficent is the market? A look at the modern history of mortality," unpublished manuscript (1998).
7. D. E. Bloom, D. Canning, P. N. Malaney, Popul. Dev. Rev. (in press).
8. D. E. Bloom and J. D. Sachs, Brookings Pap. Econ. Act., Macroecon. 2, 207 (1998).
9. D. E. Bloom, P. Craig, P. N. Malaney. The Quality of Life in Rural Asia (Oxford University Press, Hong Kong, in press). These effects appear to be quite large. For example, a 40% increase in traditional fuel use (which corresponds to the difference between Vietnam and Malaysia) translates, on average, into one extra birth per woman over her lifetime, and a full percentage point rise in the population growth rate.
10. R. H. Steckel and R. Floud, Eds., Health and Welfare During Industrialization (Univ. of Chicago Press, Chicago, 1997).
11. D. E. Bloom, A. Rosenfield, River Path Associates, A Moment in Time: AIDS and Business (American Foundation for AIDS Research, New York, 1999).
12. World Bank, Confronting AIDS: Public Priorities in a Global Epidemic (Oxford Univ. Press, New York, 1997).
13. C. M. Becker and D. E. Bloom, World Dev. 26 (11), 1913 (1998).
14. World Bark, World Development Indicators 1999 (World Bank, Washington, DC, 1999).
15. The authors appreciate comments provided by an anonymous reviewer and by participants at a May 1999 workshop cosponsored by the U.K. Department for International Development and the World Health Organization.