Coordination, moderation, and institutional balancing in American presidential and house elections

American Political Science Review

Volumn 94, Issue 1, 2000, Pages 37-57

  Mebane Jr , Walter R ^a  

^a Department of Obstetrics Gynecology   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 0034336518     PISSN: 00030554     EISSN: 15375943     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.2307/2586379     Document Type: Article

References (68)

1. Alesina, Alberto, John Londregan, and Howard Rosenthal 1993 "A Model of the Political Economy of the United States." American Political Science Review 87 (March): 12-33.
2. Alesina, Alberto, and Howard Rosenthal. 1989. "Partisan Cycles in Congressional Elections and the Macroeconomy." American Political Science Review 83 (June): 373-98.
3. Alesina, Alberto, and Howard Rosenthal. 1995. Partisan Politics, Divided Government, and the Economy. New York: Cambridge University Press.
4. Alesina, Alberto, and Howard Rosenthal. 1996. "A Theory of Divided Government." Econometrica 64 (November): 1311-41.
5. Alesina, Alberto, Nouriel Roubini, and Gerald D. Cohen. 1997. Political Cycles and the Macroeconomy. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
6. Alvarez, R. Michael, and Matthew M. Schousen. 1993 "Policy Moderation of Conflicting Expectations: Testing the Intentional Models of Split-ticket Voting." American Politics Quarterly 21 (4): 410-3 8.
7. Aumann, Robert J. 1976. "Agreeing to Disagree." Annals of Statistics 4 (November): 1236-9.
8. Barndorff-Nielsen, O. E., and D. R. Cox. 1994. Inference and Asymptotics. London: Chapman and Hall.
9. Billingsley, Patrick. 1986. Probability and Measure. 2d ed. New York: Wiley.
10. Born, Richard. 1994a. "Split-ticket Voters, Divided Government and Fiorina's Policy-balancing Model." Legislative Studies Quarterly 19 (1): 95-115.
11. Born, Richard. 1994b. "Rejoinder." Legislative Studies Quarterly 19 (1): 126-9.
12. Börsch-Supan, Axel. 1990. "On the Compatibility of Nested Logit Models with Utility Maximization." Journal of Econometrics 43 (March): 373-88.
13. Bowden, Roger J. 1987. "Repeated Sampling in the Presence of Publication Effects." Journal of the American Statistical Association 82 (June): 476-84.
14. Brady, Henry, and Paul M. Sniderman. 1985. "Attitude Attribution: A Group Basis for Political Reasoning." American Political Science Review 79 (December): 1061-78.
15. Burden, Barry C., and David C. Kimball. 1998. "A New Approach to the Study of Ticket Splitting." American Political Science Review 92 (September): 533-44.
16. Calvert, Randall L., and John A. Ferejohn. 1983. "Coattail Voting in Recent Presidential Elections." American Political Science Review 77 (June): 407-19.
17. Campbell, Angus, and Warren E. Miller. 1957. "The Motivational Basis of Straight and Split Ticket Voting." American Political Science Review 51 (June): 293-312.
18. Cox Gary W. 1997. Making Votes Count: Strategic Coordination in the World's Electoral Systems. New York: Cambridge University Press.
19. Dastoor, Naorayex K. 1985. "A Classical Approach to Cox's Test for Non-nested Hypotheses." Journal of Econometrics 27 (March): 363-70.
20. Enelow, James C., and Melvin J. Hinich. 1982. "Ideology, Issues, and the Spatial Theory of Elections." American Political Science Review 76 (September): 493-501.
21. Enelow, James C., and Melvin J. Hinich. 1983a. "Voting One Issue at a Time: The Question of Voter Forecasts." American Political Science Review 77 (June): 435-45.
22. Enelow, James C., and Melvin J. Hinich. 1983b. "Voter Expectations in Multi-Stage Voting Systems: An Equilibrium Result." American Journal of Political Science 27 (November): 820-7
23. Ferejohn, John A., and Randall L. Calvert. 1983. "Presidential Coattails in Historical Perspective." American Journal of Political Science 28 (February): 127-46.
24. Fey, Mark. 1997. "Stability and Coordination in Duverger's Law: A Formal Model of Preelection Polls and Strategic Voting." American Political Science Review 91 (March): 135-47.
25. Fiorina, Morris P. 1981. Retrospective Voting in American National Elections. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
26. Fiorina, Morris P. 1988. "The Reagan Years: Turning to the Right or Groping Toward the Middle." In The Resurgence of Conservatism in Anglo-American Democracies, ed. Barry Cooper, Allan Kornberg, and William Mishler. Durham, NC: Duke University Press. Pp. 430-59.
27. Fiorina, Morris P. 1992. Divided Government. New York: Macmillan.
28. Fiorina, Morris P. 1994. "Response to Born." Legislative Studies Quarterly 19 (1): 117-25.
29. Franklin, Charles H. 1984. "Issue Preferences, Socialization, and the Evolution of Party Identification." American Journal of Political Science 28 (August): 459-78.
30. Franklin, Charles H., and John E. Jackson. 1983. "The Dynamics of Party Identification." American Political Science Review 77 (December): 957-73.
31. Frymer, Paul. 1994. "Ideological Consensus within Divided Government." Political Science Quarterly 109 (2): 287-311.
32. Fudenberg, Drew, and Jean Tirole. 1991. Game Theory. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
33. Galambos, Janos. 1987. The Asymptotic Theory of Extreme Order Statistics. 2d ed. Malabar, FL: Robert E. Krieger.
34. Grossman, Sanford J. 1989. The Informational Role of Prices. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
35. Ingberman, Daniel, and John Villani. 1993. "An Institutional Theory of Divided Government and Party Polarization." American Journal of Political Science 37 (May): 429-71.
36. Isaki, Cary T., and Wayne A. Fuller. 1982. "Survey Design Under the Regression Superpopulation Model." Journal of the American Statistical Association 77 (March): 89-96.
37. Jackson, John E. 1975. "Issues, Party Choices and Presidential Votes." American Journal of Political Science 19 (May): 161-85.
38. Johnson, Norman L., Samuel Kotz, and N. Balakrishnan. 1995. Continuous Univariate Distributions, Volume 2, 2d ed. New York: John Wiley & Sons.
39. Kreps, David M. 1977. "A Note on 'Fulfilled Expectations' Equilibria." Journal of Economic Theory 14 (February): 32-43.
40. Maddala, G. S. 1983. Limited-Dependent and Qualitative Variables in Econometrics. New York: Cambridge University Press.
41. Markus, Gregory B. 1988. "The Impact of Personal and National Economic Conditions on the Presidential Vote: A Pooled Cross-Sectional Analysis." American Journal of Political Science 32 (February): 137-54.
42. Markus, Gregory B., and Philip E. Converse. 1979. "A Dynamic Simultaneous Equation Model of Electoral Choice." American Political Science Review 73 (December): 1055-70.
43. McFadden, Daniel. 1978. "Modelling the Choice of Residential Location." In Spatial Interaction Theory and Planning Models, ed. Anders Karlqvist, Lars Lundqvist, Folke Snickars, and Jörgen W. Weibull. New York: North-Holland. Pp. 75-96.
44. McKelvey, Richard D., and Peter C. Ordeshook. 1984. "Rational Expectations in Elections: Some Experimental Results Based on a Multidimensional Model." Public Choice 44 (1): 61-102.
45. McKelvey, Richard D., and Peter C. Ordeshook. 1985a. "Elections with Limited Information: A Fulfilled Expectations Model Using Contemporaneous Poll and Endorsement Data as Information Sources." Journal of Economic Theory 36 (June): 55-85.
46. McKelvey, Richard D., and Peter C. Ordeshook. 1985b. "Sequential Elections with Limited Information." American Journal of Political Science 29 (August): 480-512.
47. McKelvey, Richard D., and Talbot Page. 1990. "Public and Private Information: An Experimental Study of Information Pooling." Econometrica 58 (November): 1321-39.
48. Mebane, Walter R., Jr. 1998. "Rational Expectations Coordinating Voting in American Presidential and House Elections." Paper presented at the 1998 Summer Methods Conference, University of California San Diego, July 23-26.
49. Miller, Alan William. 1997. Atlas of United States Presidential Elections: 1932-1996. Richmond, VA: Klipsan.
50. Miller, Warren E., and Arthur H. Miller. 1977. The CPS 1976 American National Election Study [computer file] (Study #7381). Ann Arbor: Center for Political Studies, University of Michigan [original producer]. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research [producer and distributor].
51. Miller, Warren E., and the National Election Studies. 1982. American National Election Study, 1980: Pre-and Post-Election Survey [computer file] (Study #7763). Ann Arbor: Center for Political Studies, University of Michigan [original producer]. 2d ICPSR ed. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research [producer and distributor].
52. Miller, Warren E., and the National Election Studies. 1985. American National Election Study, 1984: Continuous Monitoring Survey File [computer file] (Study #8298). Ann Arbor: Center for Political Studies, University of Michigan [original producer]. 1st ICPSR ed. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research [producer and distributor].
53. Miller, Warren E., and the National Election Studies. 1986. American National Election Study, 1984: Pre-and Post-Election Survey [computer file] (Study #8298). Ann Arbor: Center for Political Studies, University of Michigan [original producer]. 2d ICPSR ed. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research [producer and distributor].
54. Miller, Warren E., and the National Election Studies. 1989. American National Election Study, 1988: Pre-and Post-Election Survey [computer file] (Study #9196). Ann Arbor: Center for Political Studies, University of Michigan [original producer]. 2nd ICPSR ed. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research [producer and distributor].
55. Miller, Warren E., Donald R. Kinder, Steven J. Rosenstone, and the National Election Studies. 1993. American National Election Study, 1992: Pre-and Post-Election Survey [enhanced with 1990 and 1991 data] [computer file] (Study #6067). Conducted by University of Michigan, Center for Political Studies. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan, Center for Political Studies, and Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research [producers]. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor].
56. Moran, P. A. P. 1971a. "The Uniform Consistency of Maximum-likelihood Estimators." Proceedings of the Cambridge Philosophical Society 70 (3): 435-9.
57. Moran, P. A. P. 1971b. "Maximum-likelihood Estimation in Nonstandard Conditions." Proceedings of the Cambridge Philosophical Society 70 (3): 441-50.
58. Nielsen, Lars Tyge, Adam Brandenburger, John Geanakoplos, Richard McKelvey, and Talbot Page. 1990. "Common Knowledge of an Aggregate of Expectations." Econometrica 58 (September): 1235-9.
59. Page, Benjamin I., and Calvin C. Jones. 1979. "Reciprocal Effects of Policy Preferences, Party Loyalties and the Vote." American Political Science Review 73 (December): 1071-89.
60. Palfrey, Thomas R. 1989. "A Mathematical Proof of Duverger's Law." In Models of Strategic Choice in Politics, ed. Peter C. Ordeshook. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
61. Palmer, John L., and Isabel V. Sawhill, eds. 1984. The Reagan Record: An Assessment of America's Changing Domestic Priorities. Cambridge, MA: Ballinger.
62. Resnick, Sidney I. 1987. Extreme Values, Regular Variation, and Point Processes. New York: Springer-Verlag.
63. Resnick, Sidney, and Rishin Roy. 1990. "Multivariate Extremal Processes, Leader Processes and Dynamic Choice Models." Advances in Applied Probability 22 (2): 309-31.
64. Rosenstone, Steven J., Donald R. Kinder, Warren E. Miller, and the National Election Studies. 1997. American National Election Study, 1996: Pre-and Post-Election Survey [computer file] (Study #6896). 2d release. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan, Center for Political Studies [producer]. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor].
65. Särndal, Carl-Erik, Bengt Swensson, and Jan Wretman. 1992. Model Assisted Survey Sampling. New York: Springer-Verlag.
66. SAS Institute. 1989-95. "SAS (r) PROC NLIN." Proprietary Software Release 6.11. Cary, NC: SAS Institute.
67. SAS Institute. 1990. SAS/STAT User's Guide, Version 6, 4th ed. Cary, NC: SAS Institute.
68. Self, Steven G., and Kung-Yee Liang. 1987. "Asymptotic Properties of Maximum Likelihood Estimators and Likelihood Ratio Tests under Nonstandard Conditions." Journal of the American Statistical Association 82 (June): 605-10.