Predictive inference, causal reasoning, and model assessment in nonparametric bayesian analysis: A case study

Lifetime Data Analysis

Volumn 6, Issue 3, 2000, Pages 187-205

  Arjas, Elja ^a   Andreev, Andrei ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF HELSINKI   (Finland)

Author keywords

Bayesian inference; Causal dependence; Model testing; Prediction; Weighted likelihood approach

Indexed keywords

ALGORITHM; ARTICLE; BAYES THEOREM; DAY CARE; HUMAN; INCIDENCE; INFANT; OTITIS; PRESCHOOL CHILD; STATISTICAL MODEL;

ALGORITHMS; BAYES THEOREM; CHILD DAY CARE CENTERS; CHILD, PRESCHOOL; HUMANS; INCIDENCE; INFANT; MODELS, STATISTICAL; OTITIS;

EID: 0034266537     PISSN: 13807870     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1023/A:1009620223494     Document Type: Article

References (28)

1. O. O. Aalen and J. M. Hoem, "Random time changes for multivariate counting processes," Scandinavian Actuarial Journal pp. 81-101, 1978.
2. A. Andreev and E. Arjas, "Acute middle ear infection in small children: a Bayesian analysis using multiple time scales," LIDA vol. 4 pp. 121-137, 1998.
3. P. K. Andersen, O. Borgan, R. D. Gill, and N. Keiding, Statistical Models Based on Counting Processes, Springer: New York, 1993.
4. E. Arjas, "Contribution to the discussion on the paper by P. K. Andersen and O. Borgan," Scand. J. Statist, vol. 12 pp. 150-153, 1985.
5. E. Arjas and M. Eerola, "On predictive causality in longitudinal studies," Journal of Stat. Planning and Inference vol. 34 pp. 361-386, 1993.
6. E. Arjas and D. Gasbarra, "Nonparametric Bayesian inference from right censored survival data using the Gibbs sampler," Statistica Sinica vol. 4 pp. 505-524, 1994.
7. E. Arjas and D. Gasbarra, "On prequential model assessment in life history analysis," Biometrika vol. 84 pp. 505-522, 1997.
8. J. Besag, "Statistical analysis of non-lattice data," Statistician vol. 24 pp. 179-195, 1975.
9. J. Besag, "Towards Bayesian image analysis," J. Appl. Statist. vol. 16 pp. 395-407, 1989.
10. N. G. Best, M. K. Cowles and S. K. Vines, "CODA Manual version 0.30." MRC Biostatistics Unit, Cambridge, UK, 1995.
11. P. Billingsley, Convergence of Probability Measures, Wiley: New York, 1968.
12. A. N. Borodin and P. Salminen, Handbook of Brownian Motion-Facts and Formulae, Birkhäuser: Basel, 1996.
13. D. M. Dabrowska, Guo-wen Sun and M. M. Horowitz, "Cox regression in Markov renewal model: an application to the analysis of bone marrow transplant data," JASA vol. 89 pp. 867-877, 1994.
14. A. P. Dawid, "Statistical theory: The prequential approach," J. R. Statist. Soc. A 147 pp. 278-92, 1984.
15. A. P. Dawid, F. Seillier-Moiseiwitsch and T. J. Sweeting, "Prequential tests of model fit," Scand. J. Statist. vol. 19 pp. 45-60, 1992.
16. M. Eerola, Probabilistic Causality in Longitudinal Studies, Lecture Notes in Statistics, Springer-Verlag, 1994.
17. T. R. Fleming and D. P. Harrington, Counting Processes and Survival Analysis, Wiley: New York, 1991.
18. A. Gelfand and D. Dey, "Bayesian model choice: asymptotics and exact calculations," J. of the Royal Stat. Soc. Ser. B vol. 56 pp. 501-515, 1994.
19. A. Gelfand, D. Dey and H. Chang, "Model determination using predictive distributions with implementation via sampling-based methods," Bayesian Statistics 4 pp. 147-167, 1992.
20. W. R. Gilks, S. Richardson and D. J. Spiegelhalter, Markov Chain Monte Carlo in Practice, Chapman&Hall: London, 1996.
21. R. Gill, Censoring and Stochastic Integrals, Amsterdam, 1979.
22. J. Klein, N. Keiding and E. Copelan, "Plotting summary predictions in multivariate survival models: Probabilities of relapse and death in remission for bone marrow transplantation patients," Statist, in Medicine vol. 12 pp. 2315-2332, 1994.
23. I. Norros, "A compensator representation of multivariate life length distributions, with applications," Scand J Statist vol. 13 pp. 99-112, 1986.
24. M. Newton and A. Raftery, "Approximate Bayesian inference with the weighted likelihood bootstrap (with discussion)," J. R. Statist. Soc. vol. 56 pp. 3-49, 1994.
25. H. Oja, O. P. Alho and E. Laara, "Model-based estimation of the excess fraction (attributable fraction): day care and acute middle ear infection," Statistics in Medicine vol. 15 pp. 1519-1534, 1996.
26. J. M. Robins, Causal Inference from Complex Longitudinal Data, Lecture Notes in Statistics, Springer-Verlag, pp. 69-117, 1997.
27. D. Sinha and D. P. Dey, "Semiparametric Bayesian analysis of survival data," JASA vol. 92, n. 439 pp. 1195-1212, 1997.
28. L. Tierney, "Markov chains for exploring posterior distributions" (with discussion), Annals of Statistics vol. 22 pp. 1701-1762, 1994.