Conditional probabilities of significant tornadoes from RUC-2 forecasts

Weather and Forecasting

Volumn 15, Issue 4, 2000, Pages 461-475

  Hamill, T M ^a   Church, A T ^a  

^a NATIONAL CENTER FOR ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

MATHEMATICAL MODELS; PROBABILITY; THUNDERSTORMS; WEATHER FORECASTING; WIND;

BAYESIAN PROBABILISTIC MODEL; CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY (CAPE);

TORNADOES;

MODELING; THUNDERSTORM; TORNADO; WEATHER FORECASTING;

EID: 0034253604     PISSN: 08828156     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/1520-0434(2000)015<0461:CPOSTF>2.0.CO;2     Document Type: Article

References (47)

1. The operational RUC-2. Preprints
2. On the use of mesoscale and cloud-scale models in operational forecasting
3. On the environments of tornadic and nontornadic mesocyclones
4. The role of midtropospheric winds in the evolution and maintenance of low-level mesocyclones
5. Predicting supercell motion using hodograph techniques
6. Statistical forecasts based on the National Meteorological Center's numerical weather prediction system
7. Hourly helicity, instability, and EHI in forecasting supercell tornadoes. Preprints
8. Some wind and instability parameters associated with strong and violent tornadoes. 1. Wind shear and helicity
9. Streamwise vorticity: The origin of updraft rotation in supercell storms
10. Test of helicity as a tornado forecast parameter. Preprints
11. Tornado forecasting-A review
12. The influence of helicity on numerically simulated convective storms
13. Some correlations between various sounding parameters and hailstorm characteristics in northeast Colorado. Preprints
14. The influence of midtropospheric dryness on supercell morphology and evolution
15. The golden anniversary celebration of the first tornado forecast
16. Predictability of mesoscale rainfall in the tropics
17. Severe local storms forecasting
18. Some wind and instability parameters associated with strong and violent tornadoes. 2. Variations in the combination of wind and instability parameters
19. Dynamics of tornadic thunderstorms
20. Simulations of right- and left-moving storms produced through storm splitting
21. The structure, energetics and propagation of rotating convective storms. Part II: Helicity and storm stabilization
22. Deterministic non-periodic flow
23. The predictability of a flow which possesses many scales of motion
24. The occurrence of tornadoes in supercells interacting with boundaries during VORTEX-95
25. Variability of storm-relative helicity during VORTEX
26. Watch verification at the storm prediction center 1970-1997. Preprints
27. The dynamics and simulation of tropical cumulonimbus and squall lines
28. A baseline climatology of sounding-derived supercell and tornado forecast parameters
29. The association of significant tornadoes with a baroclinic boundary on 2 June 1995
30. Automated 12-36 hour probability forecasts of thunderstorms and severe local storms
31. Changes to the operational early eta analysis/forecast system at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction
32. The influence of the shear-induced pressure gradient on thunderstorm motion
33. On the rotation and propagation of simulated supercell thunderstorms
34. A three-dimensional numerical model of an isolated thunderstorm. Part II: Dynamics of updraft splitting and mesovortex couplet evolution
35. Performance of different soil model configurations in simulating ground surface temperatures and surface fluxes
36. Discriminating between tornadic and nontornadic thunderstorms using mesoscale model output
37. On the use of vertical wind shear vs. helicity in interpreting supercell dynamics. Preprints
38. The dependence of numerically simulated convective storms on vertical wind shear and buoyancy
39. The structure and classification of numerically simulated convective systems in directionally varying wind shears
40. Characteristics of isolated convective storms
41. On the use of vertical wind shear versus helicity in interpreting supercell dynamics
42. Evaluating NCEP Eta Model-derived data against observations