Show of force: Chinese soldiers, statesmen, and the 1995-1996 Taiwan Strait crisis

Political Science Quarterly

Volumn 115, Issue 2, 2000, Pages 227-246

  Scobell, Andrew ^a  

^a NONE

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 0034195948     PISSN: 00323195     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.2307/2657901     Document Type: Article

References (102)

1. 1 See, for example, Richard Bernstein and Ross H. Munro, The Coming Conflict with China (New York: Knopf, 1997).
2. 2 See, for example, Michael O'Hanlon and Bates Gill, "China's Hollow Military," The National Interest, no. 56 (Summer 1999): 55-62.
3. 3 Allen S. Whiting, "Chinese Foreign Policy: Retrospect and Prospect" in Samuel S. Kim, ed., China and the World, 4th ed. (Boulder. CO: Westview Press, 1998), 289-292.
4. 4 Michael Laris and Steven Mufson, "China Mulls Use of Force off Taiwan, Experts Say," Washington Post, 13 August 1999.
5. 5 Fan Zhenjiang, "China's Defense Policy into the Twenty-First Century," Guofang Daxue xuebao [National Defense University Journal] no. 1 (10 March 1997): 6; Mi Zhenyu, "China's Strategic Plan of Active Defense" in Shi Bike, ed., Zhongguo daqushi [Megatrends China] (Beijing: Hualing Chubanshe, 1996), 58-59.
6. 5 Fan Zhenjiang, "China's Defense Policy into the Twenty-First Century," Guofang Daxue xuebao [National Defense University Journal] no. 1 (10 March 1997): 6; Mi Zhenyu, "China's Strategic Plan of Active Defense" in Shi Bike, ed., Zhongguo daqushi [Megatrends China] (Beijing: Hualing Chubanshe, 1996), 58-59.
7. 6 Zhu Chenghu, ed., Zhongmei guanxi de fazhan bianhua ji qi qushi [Changing Developments and Trends in China-U.S. Relations] (Nanjing: Jiangsu Renmin Chubanshe, 1998), 194.
8. 7 Li Jijun, "This Century's Strategic Heritage and Next Century's Strategic Trend," Jiefangjun Bao, 28 July 1998 in Foreign Broadcast Information Service, Daily Report: China (hereafter FBIS-CHI), 16 August 1998.
9. 7 Li Jijun, "This Century's Strategic Heritage and Next Century's Strategic Trend," Jiefangjun Bao, 28 July 1998 in Foreign Broadcast Information Service, Daily Report: China (hereafter FBIS-CHI), 16 August 1998.
10. 8 Also see "Taiwan Independence Means War," Jiefangjun Bao, 6 March 2000.
11. 9 Lu Ning, The Dynamics of Foreign-Policy Decisionmaking in China (Boulder, CO: Westview, 1997), 9.
12. 10 See, for example, Shu Guang Zhang, Deterrence and Strategic Culture: Chinese-American Confrontations, 1949-1958 (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1992), 73-78.
13. 11 See Ralph N. Clough, Reaching Across the Taiwan Strait: People to People Diplomacy (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1993).
14. 12 Andrew Scobell, "Taiwan as Macedonia? Strait Tensions as a Syndrome," Studies in Conflict and Terrorism 21 (April-June 1998): 194-199.
15. 13 John W. Garver, Face Off: China, the United States and Taiwan's Democratization (Seattle: University of Washington Press, 1997), 52-59.
16. 14 "Jiang Zemin's Eight Point Proposai," Beijing Xinhua Domestic, 30 January 1995 in FBIS-CHI, 30 January 1995, 85-86.
17. 15 This paragraph is drawn from the following: author's interviews, Beijing and Shanghai, May-June 1998; Ting Chen-wu, "Hawks Dominate China's Policy Toward Taiwan," Hsin Pao, 14 March 1996 in FBIS-CHI, 21 March 1996, 12-13; Garver, Face Off, 61-62.
18. 15 This paragraph is drawn from the following: author's interviews, Beijing and Shanghai, May-June 1998; Ting Chen-wu, "Hawks Dominate China's Policy Toward Taiwan," Hsin Pao, 14 March 1996 in FBIS-CHI, 21 March 1996, 12-13; Garver, Face Off, 61-62.
19. 16 See the symposium in The China Journal 36 (July 1996); for a critique, see Scobell, "Taiwan as Macedonia?" 183-184.
20. 16 See the symposium in The China Journal 36 (July 1996); for a critique, see Scobell, "Taiwan as Macedonia?" 183-184.
21. 17 For the latter interpretation, see Mel Gurtov and Byong-Moo Hwang, China's Security: The New Roles of the Military (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 1998), 274-279.
22. 18 Author's interviews in Beijing, Shanghai, and Taipei, May-June 1998; You Ji, "Making Sense of War Games in the Taiwan Strait," Journal of Contemporary China 6 (July 1997): 287-305.
23. 19 Jonathan Adelman and Chih-Yu Shih, Symbolic War: The Chinese Use of Force, 1840-1980 (Taipei: Institute for International Relations, 1993). For a different view, see Alastair Iain Johnston. Cultural Realism: Strategic Culture and Grand Strategy in Chinese History (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1995).
24. 19 Jonathan Adelman and Chih-Yu Shih, Symbolic War: The Chinese Use of Force, 1840-1980 (Taipei: Institute for International Relations, 1993). For a different view, see Alastair Iain Johnston. Cultural Realism: Strategic Culture and Grand Strategy in Chinese History (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1995).
25. 20 Samuel P. Huntington, The Soldier and the State: The Theory and Politics of Civil-Military Relations (Cambridge, MA: Belknap Press, 1957), chap. 3; Andrew Scobell, "Explaining China's Use of Force" (unpublished manuscript, 1999); Richard K. Betts, Soldiers, Statesmen, and Cold War Crises, 2nd ed. (New York: Columbia University Press, 1991).
26. 20 Samuel P. Huntington, The Soldier and the State: The Theory and Politics of Civil-Military Relations (Cambridge, MA: Belknap Press, 1957), chap. 3; Andrew Scobell, "Explaining China's Use of Force" (unpublished manuscript, 1999); Richard K. Betts, Soldiers, Statesmen, and Cold War Crises, 2nd ed. (New York: Columbia University Press, 1991).
27. 20 Samuel P. Huntington, The Soldier and the State: The Theory and Politics of Civil-Military Relations (Cambridge, MA: Belknap Press, 1957), chap. 3; Andrew Scobell, "Explaining China's Use of Force" (unpublished manuscript, 1999); Richard K. Betts, Soldiers, Statesmen, and Cold War Crises, 2nd ed. (New York: Columbia University Press, 1991).
28. 21 Michael D. Swaine, The Role of the Chinese Military in National Security Policymaking (Santa Monica, CA: RAND, 1996), 11-14. Others view these reports as quite reliable. See, for example, Carver, Face Off: Gurtov and Hwang, China's Security.
29. 21 Michael D. Swaine, The Role of the Chinese Military in National Security Policymaking (Santa Monica, CA: RAND, 1996), 11-14. Others view these reports as quite reliable. See, for example, Carver, Face Off: Gurtov and Hwang, China's Security.
30. 21 Michael D. Swaine, The Role of the Chinese Military in National Security Policymaking (Santa Monica, CA: RAND, 1996), 11-14. Others view these reports as quite reliable. See, for example, Carver, Face Off: Gurtov and Hwang, China's Security.
31. 22 The Hong Kong newspaper Hsin Pao is particularly well connected to the PLA. Garver, Face Off, 171, n. 17. On the utility and reliability of the Hong Kong media reports on the PLA in the crisis, see ibid., 109, 171, n. 15.
32. 22 The Hong Kong newspaper Hsin Pao is particularly well connected to the PLA. Garver, Face Off, 171, n. 17. On the utility and reliability of the Hong Kong media reports on the PLA in the crisis, see ibid., 109, 171, n. 15.
33. 23 Leng Mou, "CPC To Conduct Missile Tests in Taiwan Strait," Kuang Chiao Ching, 1 November 1995, in FBIS-CHI. 29 November 1995, 94; You, "Making Sense"; Gurtov and Hwang, China's Security.
34. 23 Leng Mou, "CPC To Conduct Missile Tests in Taiwan Strait," Kuang Chiao Ching, 1 November 1995, in FBIS-CHI. 29 November 1995, 94; You, "Making Sense"; Gurtov and Hwang, China's Security.
35. 23 Leng Mou, "CPC To Conduct Missile Tests in Taiwan Strait," Kuang Chiao Ching, 1 November 1995, in FBIS-CHI. 29 November 1995, 94; You, "Making Sense"; Gurtov and Hwang, China's Security.
36. 24 Alexander George, "The Development of Doctrine and Strategy" in Alexander George et al., eds., The Limits of Coercive Diplomacy (Boston: Little, Brown and Company, 1971), 18.
37. 25 Thomas A. Fabyanic, "The Grammar and Logic of Conflict," Air University Review 32 (March-April 1981): 23-31.
38. 26 George, "The Development," 18.
39. 27 Elaine Scolino, "U.S. Offers China Two Olive Branches," New York Times, 29 July 1995.
40. 28 Garver, Face Off, 50-64, 72-73; Gurtov and Hwang, China's Security, 273.
41. 28 Garver, Face Off, 50-64, 72-73; Gurtov and Hwang, China's Security, 273.
42. 29 Willy Wo-Lap Lam, "'Covert Independence Movement' Justifies Invasion," South China Morning Post, 28 November 1995.
43. 30 "The One China Principle and the Taiwan Issue," Xinhua, in FBIS-CHI, 21 February 2000.
44. 31 You, "Making Sense," 301.
45. 32 See Barton Gellman, "U.S. and China Nearly Came to Blows in 1996," Washington Post, 21 June 1998.
46. 33 Jen Hui-wen, "CPC Specially Sets up Headquarters to Plan Military Exercises," Hsin Pao, 22 December 1995, in FBIS-CHI, 2 January 1996, 37; Lam, "'Covert Independence Movement.'"
47. 33 Jen Hui-wen, "CPC Specially Sets up Headquarters to Plan Military Exercises," Hsin Pao, 22 December 1995, in FBIS-CHI, 2 January 1996, 37; Lam, "'Covert Independence Movement.'"
48. 34 Garver, Face Off, 85-86.
49. 35 See also ibid., chaps. 9 and 10.
50. 36 Ibid., 63, 104.
51. 37 Jen Hui-wen, "Communist China Meticulously Plans . . . Targeted at Taiwan," Hsin Pao, 1 December 1995, in FBIS-CHI-95-236.
52. 38 You, "Making Sense," 300-301; Garver, Face Off, 63.
53. 38 You, "Making Sense," 300-301; Garver, Face Off, 63.
54. 39 Speech to PLA soldiers quoted in Ta Kung Pao, 21 March 1996, cited in You, "Making Sense," 301.
55. 39 Speech to PLA soldiers quoted in Ta Kung Pao, 21 March 1996, cited in You, "Making Sense," 301.
56. 40 Author's interviews in Beijing and Shanghai, May-June 1998; Bruce Gilley and Julian Baum, "What's In A Name?" Far Eastern Economic Review, 7 May 1998, 26-27.
57. 41 Nan Li, "The PLA's Evolving Warfighting Doctrine. Strategy, and Tactics, 1985-1995," China Quarterly 146 (June 1996).
58. 42 A significant exception is Carver, Face Off, 51.
59. 43 Author's interviews, Beijing and Shanghai, May-June 1998.
60. 44 Ibid.; Matt Forney, Sebastian Moffett, and Gary Silverman, "Ghosts of the Past," Far Eastern Economic Review, 10 October 1996, 24.
61. 45 Graham T. Allison, Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis (Boston: Little, Brown and Company, 1971), chap. 6.
62. 46 Lu, The Dynamics, 123-124.
63. 47 Ting, "Hawks Dominate China's Policy," 12-13; Garver, Face Off, 72-73 ; Lam, "'Covert Independence Movement.'" 92-93.
64. 47 Ting, "Hawks Dominate China's Policy," 12-13; Garver, Face Off, 72-73 ; Lam, "'Covert Independence Movement.'" 92-93.
65. 47 Ting, "Hawks Dominate China's Policy," 12-13; Garver, Face Off, 72-73 ; Lam, "'Covert Independence Movement.'" 92-93.
66. 48 Ta Kung Pao, 4 September 1995, in FBIS-CHI, 7 September 1995, 32.
67. 49 See, for example, Garver, Face Off, chap. 5.
68. 50 Gellman, "U.S. and China."
69. 51 Willy Wo-Lap Lam, "Urgent US Action Needed to Soothe Beijing," South China Morning Post, 10 May 1999.
70. 52 Yang Zhong et al., "Political Views From Below," PS: Political Science and Politics 30 (September 1997): 479.
71. 53 Willy Wo-Lap Lam, "'Relentless Expansion' of Army Power Viewed," South China Morning Post, 20 March 1996.
72. 54 You, "Making Sense," 295.
73. 55 Richard D. Fisher, Jr., "China's Missiles Over the Taiwan Strait" in James Lilley and Chuck Downs, eds., Crisis in the Taiwan Strait (Washington, DC: National Defense University Press, 1997), 174.
74. 56 Lam, "'Relentless Expansion'"; Garver, Face Off, 108.
75. 56 Lam, "'Relentless Expansion'"; Garver, Face Off, 108.
76. 57 Author's interviews in Beijing and Shanghai, May-June 1998; "Chinese Military Has Strong Desire to Attack Taiwan," Tungfang Jihpao, 3 January 1996, in FBIS-CHI-96-008.
77. 58 This point is also made by Carver, Face Off, 51.
78. 59 Author's interviews in Taipei, May 1998.
79. 60 Beijing saw the crisis as a victory. Garver, Face Off, chap. 14.
80. 61 Author's interviews in Taipei, May 1998.
81. 62 On Korea, see Thomas J. Christensen, "Threats, Assurances, and the Last Chance for Peace," International Security 17 (Summer 1992); on Vietnam, see James Mulvenon, "The Limits of Coercive Diplomacy," Journal of Northeast Asian Studies 16 (Fall 1995) ; on India, see Allen Whiting, The Chinese Calculus of Deterrence: India and Indochina (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1975).
82. 62 On Korea, see Thomas J. Christensen, "Threats, Assurances, and the Last Chance for Peace," International Security 17 (Summer 1992); on Vietnam, see James Mulvenon, "The Limits of Coercive Diplomacy," Journal of Northeast Asian Studies 16 (Fall 1995) ; on India, see Allen Whiting, The Chinese Calculus of Deterrence: India and Indochina (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1975).
83. 62 On Korea, see Thomas J. Christensen, "Threats, Assurances, and the Last Chance for Peace," International Security 17 (Summer 1992); on Vietnam, see James Mulvenon, "The Limits of Coercive Diplomacy," Journal of Northeast Asian Studies 16 (Fall 1995) ; on India, see Allen Whiting, The Chinese Calculus of Deterrence: India and Indochina (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1975).
84. 63 Zhang, Deterrence, chaps. 7, 8; Thomas J. Christensen, Useful Adversaries: Grand Strategy, Domestic Mobilization, and Sino-American Conflict, 1947-1958 (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1996), chap. 6.
85. 63 Zhang, Deterrence, chaps. 7, 8; Thomas J. Christensen, Useful Adversaries: Grand Strategy, Domestic Mobilization, and Sino-American Conflict, 1947-1958 (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1996), chap. 6.
86. 64 Ramon Myers, personal communication to author, July 1998.
87. 65 Tai Ming Cheung, "Chinese Military Preparations Against Taiwan Over the Next 10 Years" in Lilley and Downs, eds. Crisis, 52.
88. 66 James Q. Wilson, Bureaucracy (New York: Basic Books, 1989).
89. 67 Cheung, "China's Military Preparations," 60.
90. 68 Mi Zhenyu, "China's Strategic Plan," 53-54.
91. 69 Fisher, "China's Missiles," 186-187; Cheung, "Chinese Military," 55, 60 ; Eric McVadon, "PRC Exercises, Doctrine, and Tactics Toward Taiwan: The Naval Dimension" in Lilley and Downs, ed., Crisis, 269-272.
92. 69 Fisher, "China's Missiles," 186-187; Cheung, "Chinese Military," 55, 60 ; Eric McVadon, "PRC Exercises, Doctrine, and Tactics Toward Taiwan: The Naval Dimension" in Lilley and Downs, ed., Crisis, 269-272.
93. 69 Fisher, "China's Missiles," 186-187; Cheung, "Chinese Military," 55, 60 ; Eric McVadon, "PRC Exercises, Doctrine, and Tactics Toward Taiwan: The Naval Dimension" in Lilley and Downs, ed., Crisis, 269-272.
94. 70 McVadon, "PRC Exercises," 249-276; Harlan Jencks, "Wild Speculations on the Military Balance in the Taiwan Strait" and Kenneth W. Allen, "PLAAF Modernization: An Assessment" both in Lilley and Downs, eds., Crisis, 131-145, 217-247.
95. 70 McVadon, "PRC Exercises," 249-276; Harlan Jencks, "Wild Speculations on the Military Balance in the Taiwan Strait" and Kenneth W. Allen, "PLAAF Modernization: An Assessment" both in Lilley and Downs, eds., Crisis, 131-145, 217-247.
96. 70 McVadon, "PRC Exercises," 249-276; Harlan Jencks, "Wild Speculations on the Military Balance in the Taiwan Strait" and Kenneth W. Allen, "PLAAF Modernization: An Assessment" both in Lilley and Downs, eds., Crisis, 131-145, 217-247.
97. 71 Gill and O'Hanlon, "China's Hollow Military," 58-59.
98. 72 Patrick E. Tyler, "As China Threatens Taiwan, It Makes Sure the U.S. Listens." New York Times, 24 January 1996.
99. 73 Henry Rowan, personal communication to author, July 1998.
100. 74 Hencks, "Wild Speculations," 151-154. On Chinese discussion of tactical nukes, see Alaistair Iain Johnston, "China's New 'Old Thinking,'" International Security 20 (Winter 1995-1996): 5-42.
101. 74 Hencks, "Wild Speculations," 151-154. On Chinese discussion of tactical nukes, see Alaistair Iain Johnston, "China's New 'Old Thinking,'" International Security 20 (Winter 1995-1996): 5-42.
102. 75 Warren Christopher, In the Stream of History (Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 1998),