The impact of foreign trade on the Mexican economy: Terms of trade and the rise of industry 1880-1923

Journal of Latin American Studies

Volumn 32, Issue 2, 2000, Pages 399-433

  Beatty, Edward ^a  

^a DUQUESNE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ECONOMIC HISTORY; INDUSTRIALIZATION; TERMS OF TRADE; TRADE PERFORMANCE;

MEXICO;

EID: 0034037069     PISSN: 0022216X     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1017/S0022216X00005794     Document Type: Article

References (109)

1. Import records for La Industrial are found in the files of the Federal Industries Nuevas programme in the Archivo General de la Nación, hereafter AGN: IN, with box and file number. See caja 9, expediente 6, pp. 251-56, caja 10, expediente 3, pp. 264-69, caja 10, expediente 7, pp. 89-96, as well as cajas 13, 14, 51 and 52. See also El Economista Mexicano 9 April 1898, pp. 114-15.
2. See, for instance, AGN:IN caja 28, expediente 7, pp. 2-58, 64-73 and caja 28, expediente 8, pp. 37-55. For similar stories, see the records for the Compañía Manufacturera de Artefactos de Barro, caja 5, expediente 3, pp. 3-14, 37-57 and expediente 4, pp. 3-13, 30-32; the Santa Gertrudis Yute firm, caja 1, expediente 14, pp. 1-26 and expediente 15, pp. 85-121; the Mexican Oil Fields Company, caja 27, expediente 7, pp. 2-14, 47-90; and the Michoacan Lumber & Development Company, caja 30, expediente 6, pp. 12-17, 39-41.
3. Note that this is different from the question of how the new industries were financed. On this, see Mario Cerutti, Burguesía, capitales e industria en el norte de Mexico, Monterrey y su ámbito regional (1850-1910) (Mexico, 1992); Leticia Gamboa Ojeda, Los empresarios de ayer: el grupo dominante en la industria textil de Puebla, 1906-1929 (Puebla, 1985); Stephen Haber, Industry and Underdevelopment: The Industrialization of Mexico, 1890-1940 (Stanford, 1989); and Alexander M. Saragoza, The Monterrey Elite and the Mexican State, 1880-1940 (Austin, 1988).
4. Note that this is different from the question of how the new industries were financed. On this, see Mario Cerutti, Burguesía, capitales e industria en el norte de Mexico, Monterrey y su ámbito regional (1850-1910) (Mexico, 1992); Leticia Gamboa Ojeda, Los empresarios de ayer: el grupo dominante en la industria textil de Puebla, 1906-1929 (Puebla, 1985); Stephen Haber, Industry and Underdevelopment: The Industrialization of Mexico, 1890-1940 (Stanford, 1989); and Alexander M. Saragoza, The Monterrey Elite and the Mexican State, 1880-1940 (Austin, 1988).
5. Note that this is different from the question of how the new industries were financed. On this, see Mario Cerutti, Burguesía, capitales e industria en el norte de Mexico, Monterrey y su ámbito regional (1850-1910) (Mexico, 1992); Leticia Gamboa Ojeda, Los empresarios de ayer: el grupo dominante en la industria textil de Puebla, 1906-1929 (Puebla, 1985); Stephen Haber, Industry and Underdevelopment: The Industrialization of Mexico, 1890-1940 (Stanford, 1989); and Alexander M. Saragoza, The Monterrey Elite and the Mexican State, 1880-1940 (Austin, 1988).
6. Note that this is different from the question of how the new industries were financed. On this, see Mario Cerutti, Burguesía, capitales e industria en el norte de Mexico, Monterrey y su ámbito regional (1850-1910) (Mexico, 1992); Leticia Gamboa Ojeda, Los empresarios de ayer: el grupo dominante en la industria textil de Puebla, 1906-1929 (Puebla, 1985); Stephen Haber, Industry and Underdevelopment: The Industrialization of Mexico, 1890-1940 (Stanford, 1989); and Alexander M. Saragoza, The Monterrey Elite and the Mexican State, 1880-1940 (Austin, 1988).
7. For the classic work on forward (or consumption) and backward linkages see Albert Hirshman, 'A Generalized Linkage Approach to Development', in Manning Nash (ed.), Essays on Economic Development and Cultural Change (Chicago, 1977), pp. 67-98; and Malcom Gillis et al., The Economics of Development (New York, 1987), pp. 405-25.
8. For the classic work on forward (or consumption) and backward linkages see Albert Hirshman, 'A Generalized Linkage Approach to Development', in Manning Nash (ed.), Essays on Economic Development and Cultural Change (Chicago, 1977), pp. 67-98; and Malcom Gillis et al., The Economics of Development (New York, 1987), pp. 405-25.
9. For the most careful analysis of this, see Luis Catão, The Failure of Expart-Led Growth in Brazil and Mexico c. 1870-1930 (London, 1992).
10. Gillis, Economics, p. 451.
11. Historians have tended to neglect the relationship between trade and industry, and have focused either on the often-pernicious social consequences of the export economy or on its contribution to economic growth. Compare, for instance, two recent contributions: Steven C. Topik and Allen Wells, The Second Conquest of Latin America: Coffee, Henequen and Oil during the Export Boom, 1850-1930 (Austin, 1998); and Enrique Cárdenas, 'A Macroeconomic interpretation of Nineteenth-Century Mexico', in Stephen Haber (ed.), How Latin America Fell Behind (Stanford, 1997), pp. 65-92. Note that examining the export boom's impact on economic growth (measured by GDP) is different to assessing its impact on economic development (a structural shift in the economy, in this case marked by the rise of a domestic manufacturing sector).
12. Historians have tended to neglect the relationship between trade and industry, and have focused either on the often-pernicious social consequences of the export economy or on its contribution to economic growth. Compare, for instance, two recent contributions: Steven C. Topik and Allen Wells, The Second Conquest of Latin America: Coffee, Henequen and Oil during the Export Boom, 1850-1930 (Austin, 1998); and Enrique Cárdenas, 'A Macroeconomic interpretation of Nineteenth-Century Mexico', in Stephen Haber (ed.), How Latin America Fell Behind (Stanford, 1997), pp. 65-92. Note that examining the export boom's impact on economic growth (measured by GDP) is different to assessing its impact on economic development (a structural shift in the economy, in this case marked by the rise of a domestic manufacturing sector).
13. L. Catão, 'The Transmission of Long Cycles Between 'Core" and " Periphery" Economies: A Case Study of Brazil and Mexico, c. 1870-1940', unpubl. PhD diss., University of Cambridge, 1991, presents one estimate of total Mexican trade, but does not present volume, value, and price series for particular commodities. Work in progress by Sandra Kuntz Ficker reconstructs Mexican external trade series from the Porfiriato through the post-revolutionary decades. Richard Salvucci has reconstructed total Mexican trade from the 1820s through the 1870s, including series on net barter, income, and factoral terms of trade, See Richard Salvucci, 'Origins and Progress of US-Mexican Trade, 1825-1884', Hispanic American Historical Review vol. 71, no. 4 (1991), pp. 697-735, and Salvucci, 'Terms of Trade in Latin America in the Nineteenth Century: Old Questions, New Answers', unpubl. manuscript (1998).
14. L. Catão, 'The Transmission of Long Cycles Between 'Core" and " Periphery" Economies: A Case Study of Brazil and Mexico, c. 1870-1940', unpubl. PhD diss., University of Cambridge, 1991, presents one estimate of total Mexican trade, but does not present volume, value, and price series for particular commodities. Work in progress by Sandra Kuntz Ficker reconstructs Mexican external trade series from the Porfiriato through the post-revolutionary decades. Richard Salvucci has reconstructed total Mexican trade from the 1820s through the 1870s, including series on net barter, income, and factoral terms of trade, See Richard Salvucci, 'Origins and Progress of US-Mexican Trade, 1825-1884', Hispanic American Historical Review vol. 71, no. 4 (1991), pp. 697-735, and Salvucci, 'Terms of Trade in Latin America in the Nineteenth Century: Old Questions, New Answers', unpubl. manuscript (1998).
15. L. Catão, 'The Transmission of Long Cycles Between 'Core" and " Periphery" Economies: A Case Study of Brazil and Mexico, c. 1870-1940', unpubl. PhD diss., University of Cambridge, 1991, presents one estimate of total Mexican trade, but does not present volume, value, and price series for particular commodities. Work in progress by Sandra Kuntz Ficker reconstructs Mexican external trade series from the Porfiriato through the post-revolutionary decades. Richard Salvucci has reconstructed total Mexican trade from the 1820s through the 1870s, including series on net barter, income, and factoral terms of trade, See Richard Salvucci, 'Origins and Progress of US-Mexican Trade, 1825-1884', Hispanic American Historical Review vol. 71, no. 4 (1991), pp. 697-735, and Salvucci, 'Terms of Trade in Latin America in the Nineteenth Century: Old Questions, New Answers', unpubl. manuscript (1998).
16. Colegio de Mexico, Estadísticas económicas del Porfiriato: Comercio exterior de México, 1877-1911 (Mexico, 1960); and Mexico, Instituto Nacional de Estadística, Geografía e Informatica, Estadísticas históricas de México, vol. 2 (Mexico, 1994).
17. Colegio de Mexico, Estadísticas económicas del Porfiriato: Comercio exterior de México, 1877-1911 (Mexico, 1960); and Mexico, Instituto Nacional de Estadística, Geografía e Informatica, Estadísticas históricas de México, vol. 2 (Mexico, 1994).
18. United States, Department of the Treasury, Foreign Commerce and Navigation of the United States (Washington: yearly volumes 1880-1923). In this article all values are reported in US dollars, unless otherwise noted; yearly values are for fiscal years ending 30 June until 1918, and for calendar years thereafter; all price indices are set to 1880 = 100, and thus all real figures are in constant dollars of 1880, unless otherwise noted. Bilateral trade is presented from the Mexican perspective; thus 'exports' denote trade originating in Mexico.
19. For summaries of Prebisch's work and the terms of trade issue, see John P. Powelson, 'The Terms of Trade of Latin America (with special reference to Mexico)', in Barry Poulson and T. Noel Osborn (eds.), U.S.-Mexico Economic Relations (Boulder, 1979); and Enzo Grilli and Maw Cheng Yang, 'Primary Commodity Prices, Manufactured Goods Prices, and the Terms of Trade of Developing Countries: What the Long Run Shows', The World Bank Economic Review, vol. 2, no. 1 (1988).
20. For summaries of Prebisch's work and the terms of trade issue, see John P. Powelson, 'The Terms of Trade of Latin America (with special reference to Mexico)', in Barry Poulson and T. Noel Osborn (eds.), U.S.-Mexico Economic Relations (Boulder, 1979); and Enzo Grilli and Maw Cheng Yang, 'Primary Commodity Prices, Manufactured Goods Prices, and the Terms of Trade of Developing Countries: What the Long Run Shows', The World Bank Economic Review, vol. 2, no. 1 (1988).
21. Victor Bulmer-Thomas, The Economic History of Latin America Since Independence (Cambridge, 1994), pp. 78-80. See also Stephen Haber, 'Introduction', in Haber (ed.), How Latin American Fell Behind, p. 12; Peter H. Lindert, 'International Economics and the Historian', in Thomas G. Rawski (ed.), Economics and the Historian (Berkeley, 1996), p. 215; and Steven E. Sanderson, The Politics of Trade in Latin American Development (Stanford, 1992), p. 14.
22. Victor Bulmer-Thomas, The Economic History of Latin America Since Independence (Cambridge, 1994), pp. 78-80. See also Stephen Haber, 'Introduction', in Haber (ed.), How Latin American Fell Behind, p. 12; Peter H. Lindert, 'International Economics and the Historian', in Thomas G. Rawski (ed.), Economics and the Historian (Berkeley, 1996), p. 215; and Steven E. Sanderson, The Politics of Trade in Latin American Development (Stanford, 1992), p. 14.
23. Victor Bulmer-Thomas, The Economic History of Latin America Since Independence (Cambridge, 1994), pp. 78-80. See also Stephen Haber, 'Introduction', in Haber (ed.), How Latin American Fell Behind, p. 12; Peter H. Lindert, 'International Economics and the Historian', in Thomas G. Rawski (ed.), Economics and the Historian (Berkeley, 1996), p. 215; and Steven E. Sanderson, The Politics of Trade in Latin American Development (Stanford, 1992), p. 14.
24. Victor Bulmer-Thomas, The Economic History of Latin America Since Independence (Cambridge, 1994), pp. 78-80. See also Stephen Haber, 'Introduction', in Haber (ed.), How Latin American Fell Behind, p. 12; Peter H. Lindert, 'International Economics and the Historian', in Thomas G. Rawski (ed.), Economics and the Historian (Berkeley, 1996), p. 215; and Steven E. Sanderson, The Politics of Trade in Latin American Development (Stanford, 1992), p. 14.
25. Richard Salvucci, Textiles and Capitalism in Mexico (Princeton, 1987), pp. 166-68; and 'Terms of Trade'.
26. John Coatsworth, 'Obstacles to Economic Growth in Nineteenth-Century Mexico', American Historical Review vol. 83, no. 1 (1973), table 1; and Haber, 'Introduction', p. 1.
27. John Coatsworth, 'Obstacles to Economic Growth in Nineteenth-Century Mexico', American Historical Review vol. 83, no. 1 (1973), table 1; and Haber, 'Introduction', p. 1.
28. Cárdenas, 'Macroeconomic Interpretation', p. 80; and Catão, Failure of Export-Led Growth, p. 50.
29. Cárdenas, 'Macroeconomic Interpretation', p. 80; and Catão, Failure of Export-Led Growth, p. 50.
30. This moderate decline in Mexico's terms of trade contrasts with the relatively constant (or stagnating) net barter terms of trade calculated from the series presented in Esfadísticas económical del Porfiriato (0.28 per cent per year average 1893-1908) and the sharper decline calculated by Catão, 'Transmission of Long Cycles' (-3.73 per cent 1893-1908). The comparable figure from the bilateral trade series for 1893-1908 is -1.18 per cent.
31. 2 of 0.92. For the best recent study of silver depreciation and its effects, see Aldo Musacchio, 'Entre el oro y la plata: un estudio de las causas de la adopción del patrón oro en México', unpubl. BA thesis, ITAM, 1998, especially chapter 3.
32. Marvin Bernstein, The Mexican Mining Industry 1890-1950 (Albany, 1965), chapters 4-5; Cuauhtémoc Velasco Avila et al., Estado y mineŕa en México (1767-1910) (Mexico, 1988), chapters 17-18.
33. Marvin Bernstein, The Mexican Mining Industry 1890-1950 (Albany, 1965), chapters 4-5; Cuauhtémoc Velasco Avila et al., Estado y mineŕa en México (1767-1910) (Mexico, 1988), chapters 17-18.
34. Export diversity in Mexico was notable not just in its contrast with a long tradition of silver-dominated trade, but also in its contrast with other Latin American countries. By 1910 the concentration of Mexican exports was markedly less than that of every other Latin American country except Argentina and Peru. While the leading export commodity in Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Cuba, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Nicaragua and Panama comprised over 60 per cent of all exports, by value, and the average concentration ratio was 53.6 per cent, silver had fallen to under 30 per cent of Mexican exports. Bulmer-Thomas, Ecnomic History, Table 3.2, p. 59.
35. Single factoral terms of trade come even closer to measuring the welfare effects of trade. They are not calculated here as (1) they are not directly relevant to the trade and industry argument of this article, and (2) we do not yet have good measures of labour productivity in the Porfirian economy.
36. Because this is based on the bilateral trade series, it slightly overstates growth in income terms of trade for the period. See Table 5 notes for the comparison.
37. Estadísticas históricas, Tables 8.1 and 18.1.
38. Higher export prices would not necessarily mean higher revenues, of course, when high prices led to reduced exports as trading partners found cheaper substitutes.
39. 2 in parentheses). silver -0.031 (.83) coffee -0.018 (.19) hides -0.008 (.09) henequen -0.0004 (.002) rubber 0.011 (.21) metals -0.004 (.03)
40. Kennet S. Cott, 'Porfirian Investment Policies, 1876-1910', unpubl. PhD diss., University of New Mexico, 1979, p. 277; Raymond Vernon, The Dilemma of Mexico's Development (Cambridge, 1963), pp. 43-44.
41. Kennet S. Cott, 'Porfirian Investment Policies, 1876-1910', unpubl. PhD diss., University of New Mexico, 1979, p. 277; Raymond Vernon, The Dilemma of Mexico's Development (Cambridge, 1963), pp. 43-44.
42. Mira Wilkins, The Emergence of Multinational Enterprise (Cambridge, 1970), p. 125. See also David M. Pletcher, Rails, Mines and Progress: Seven American Promoters in Mexico, 1867-1911 (Ithaca, 1958); William Schell Jr., 'Integral Outsiders: Mexico City's American Colony (1876-1911)', unpubl. PhD diss., University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, 1992; William Glade, 'Latin America and the World Economy, 1870-1914', in The Cambridge History of Latin America, vol. VII (Cambridge, 1986), p. 41; and a dissertation in progress by Belinda Román.
43. Mira Wilkins, The Emergence of Multinational Enterprise (Cambridge, 1970), p. 125. See also David M. Pletcher, Rails, Mines and Progress: Seven American Promoters in Mexico, 1867-1911 (Ithaca, 1958); William Schell Jr., 'Integral Outsiders: Mexico City's American Colony (1876-1911)', unpubl. PhD diss., University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, 1992; William Glade, 'Latin America and the World Economy, 1870-1914', in The Cambridge History of Latin America, vol. VII (Cambridge, 1986), p. 41; and a dissertation in progress by Belinda Román.
44. Mira Wilkins, The Emergence of Multinational Enterprise (Cambridge, 1970), p. 125. See also David M. Pletcher, Rails, Mines and Progress: Seven American Promoters in Mexico, 1867-1911 (Ithaca, 1958); William Schell Jr., 'Integral Outsiders: Mexico City's American Colony (1876-1911)', unpubl. PhD diss., University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, 1992; William Glade, 'Latin America and the World Economy, 1870-1914', in The Cambridge History of Latin America, vol. VII (Cambridge, 1986), p. 41; and a dissertation in progress by Belinda Román.
45. Mira Wilkins, The Emergence of Multinational Enterprise (Cambridge, 1970), p. 125. See also David M. Pletcher, Rails, Mines and Progress: Seven American Promoters in Mexico, 1867-1911 (Ithaca, 1958); William Schell Jr., 'Integral Outsiders: Mexico City's American Colony (1876-1911)', unpubl. PhD diss., University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, 1992; William Glade, 'Latin America and the World Economy, 1870-1914', in The Cambridge History of Latin America, vol. VII (Cambridge, 1986), p. 41; and a dissertation in progress by Belinda Román.
46. Velasco Avila et al., Estado y minería, chapters 15, 16.
47. See, for instance, the example of Singer Sewing Machines in Luis González, San Jesé de Gracia: A Mexican Village in Transition (Austin: 1974), p. 99. Such efforts applied to a wide range of both consumer and producer goods.
48. Mario Cerutti, Burguesía, capitales e industria en el norte de México, Monterrey y su ámbito regional (1850-1910), (Mexico, 1992); William Glade, The Latin American Economies: A Study of the Institutional Evolution (New York, 1969); Aurora Gómez Galvarriato, 'El primer impulso industrializador de México. El caso de Fundidora Monterrey', tesis de licenciatura, ITAM (1990); Stephen Haber, Industry and Underdevelopment; Dawn Keremitsis, 'Desarrollo de las plantas de energía y de la productión durante el Porfiriato', in Enrique Cárdenas (ed.), Historia económica de México 64 (Mexico, 1992), pp. 161-179; Carlos Marichal and Mario Cerutti (eds.), Historia de las grandes empresas en México, 1850-1930 (Mexico, 1997); Fernando Rosenzweig, 'La industria', in Daniel Cosío Villegas, (ed.), Historia moderna de México. El Porfiriato: La vida económica, vol. 1 (Mexico, 1965), pp. 311-481; and Alexander M. Saragoza, The Monterrey Elite and the Mexican State, 1880-1940 (Austin, 1988).
49. Mario Cerutti, Burguesía, capitales e industria en el norte de México, Monterrey y su ámbito regional (1850-1910), (Mexico, 1992); William Glade, The Latin American Economies: A Study of the Institutional Evolution (New York, 1969); Aurora Gómez Galvarriato, 'El primer impulso industrializador de México. El caso de Fundidora Monterrey', tesis de licenciatura, ITAM (1990); Stephen Haber, Industry and Underdevelopment; Dawn Keremitsis, 'Desarrollo de las plantas de energía y de la productión durante el Porfiriato', in Enrique Cárdenas (ed.), Historia económica de México 64 (Mexico, 1992), pp. 161-179; Carlos Marichal and Mario Cerutti (eds.), Historia de las grandes empresas en México, 1850-1930 (Mexico, 1997); Fernando Rosenzweig, 'La industria', in Daniel Cosío Villegas, (ed.), Historia moderna de México. El Porfiriato: La vida económica, vol. 1 (Mexico, 1965), pp. 311-481; and Alexander M. Saragoza, The Monterrey Elite and the Mexican State, 1880-1940 (Austin, 1988).
50. Mario Cerutti, Burguesía, capitales e industria en el norte de México, Monterrey y su ámbito regional (1850-1910), (Mexico, 1992); William Glade, The Latin American Economies: A Study of the Institutional Evolution (New York, 1969); Aurora Gómez Galvarriato, 'El primer impulso industrializador de México. El caso de Fundidora Monterrey', tesis de licenciatura, ITAM (1990); Stephen Haber, Industry and Underdevelopment; Dawn Keremitsis, 'Desarrollo de las plantas de energía y de la productión durante el Porfiriato', in Enrique Cárdenas (ed.), Historia económica de México 64 (Mexico, 1992), pp. 161-179; Carlos Marichal and Mario Cerutti (eds.), Historia de las grandes empresas en México, 1850-1930 (Mexico, 1997); Fernando Rosenzweig, 'La industria', in Daniel Cosío Villegas, (ed.), Historia moderna de México. El Porfiriato: La vida económica, vol. 1 (Mexico, 1965), pp. 311-481; and Alexander M. Saragoza, The Monterrey Elite and the Mexican State, 1880-1940 (Austin, 1988).
51. Mario Cerutti, Burguesía, capitales e industria en el norte de México, Monterrey y su ámbito regional (1850-1910), (Mexico, 1992); William Glade, The Latin American Economies: A Study of the Institutional Evolution (New York, 1969); Aurora Gómez Galvarriato, 'El primer impulso industrializador de México. El caso de Fundidora Monterrey', tesis de licenciatura, ITAM (1990); Stephen Haber, Industry and Underdevelopment; Dawn Keremitsis, 'Desarrollo de las plantas de energía y de la productión durante el Porfiriato', in Enrique Cárdenas (ed.), Historia económica de México 64 (Mexico, 1992), pp. 161-179; Carlos Marichal and Mario Cerutti (eds.), Historia de las grandes empresas en México, 1850-1930 (Mexico, 1997); Fernando Rosenzweig, 'La industria', in Daniel Cosío Villegas, (ed.), Historia moderna de México. El Porfiriato: La vida económica, vol. 1 (Mexico, 1965), pp. 311-481; and Alexander M. Saragoza, The Monterrey Elite and the Mexican State, 1880-1940 (Austin, 1988).
52. Mario Cerutti, Burguesía, capitales e industria en el norte de México, Monterrey y su ámbito regional (1850-1910), (Mexico, 1992); William Glade, The Latin American Economies: A Study of the Institutional Evolution (New York, 1969); Aurora Gómez Galvarriato, 'El primer impulso industrializador de México. El caso de Fundidora Monterrey', tesis de licenciatura, ITAM (1990); Stephen Haber, Industry and Underdevelopment; Dawn Keremitsis, 'Desarrollo de las plantas de energía y de la productión durante el Porfiriato', in Enrique Cárdenas (ed.), Historia económica de México 64 (Mexico, 1992), pp. 161-179; Carlos Marichal and Mario Cerutti (eds.), Historia de las grandes empresas en México, 1850-1930 (Mexico, 1997); Fernando Rosenzweig, 'La industria', in Daniel Cosío Villegas, (ed.), Historia moderna de México. El Porfiriato: La vida económica, vol. 1 (Mexico, 1965), pp. 311-481; and Alexander M. Saragoza, The Monterrey Elite and the Mexican State, 1880-1940 (Austin, 1988).
53. Mario Cerutti, Burguesía, capitales e industria en el norte de México, Monterrey y su ámbito regional (1850-1910), (Mexico, 1992); William Glade, The Latin American Economies: A Study of the Institutional Evolution (New York, 1969); Aurora Gómez Galvarriato, 'El primer impulso industrializador de México. El caso de Fundidora Monterrey', tesis de licenciatura, ITAM (1990); Stephen Haber, Industry and Underdevelopment; Dawn Keremitsis, 'Desarrollo de las plantas de energía y de la productión durante el Porfiriato', in Enrique Cárdenas (ed.), Historia económica de México 64 (Mexico, 1992), pp. 161-179; Carlos Marichal and Mario Cerutti (eds.), Historia de las grandes empresas en México, 1850-1930 (Mexico, 1997); Fernando Rosenzweig, 'La industria', in Daniel Cosío Villegas, (ed.), Historia moderna de México. El Porfiriato: La vida económica, vol. 1 (Mexico, 1965), pp. 311-481; and Alexander M. Saragoza, The Monterrey Elite and the Mexican State, 1880-1940 (Austin, 1988).
54. Mario Cerutti, Burguesía, capitales e industria en el norte de México, Monterrey y su ámbito regional (1850-1910), (Mexico, 1992); William Glade, The Latin American Economies: A Study of the Institutional Evolution (New York, 1969); Aurora Gómez Galvarriato, 'El primer impulso industrializador de México. El caso de Fundidora Monterrey', tesis de licenciatura, ITAM (1990); Stephen Haber, Industry and Underdevelopment; Dawn Keremitsis, 'Desarrollo de las plantas de energía y de la productión durante el Porfiriato', in Enrique Cárdenas (ed.), Historia económica de México 64 (Mexico, 1992), pp. 161-179; Carlos Marichal and Mario Cerutti (eds.), Historia de las grandes empresas en México, 1850-1930 (Mexico, 1997); Fernando Rosenzweig, 'La industria', in Daniel Cosío Villegas, (ed.), Historia moderna de México. El Porfiriato: La vida económica, vol. 1 (Mexico, 1965), pp. 311-481; and Alexander M. Saragoza, The Monterrey Elite and the Mexican State, 1880-1940 (Austin, 1988).
55. Mario Cerutti, Burguesía, capitales e industria en el norte de México, Monterrey y su ámbito regional (1850-1910), (Mexico, 1992); William Glade, The Latin American Economies: A Study of the Institutional Evolution (New York, 1969); Aurora Gómez Galvarriato, 'El primer impulso industrializador de México. El caso de Fundidora Monterrey', tesis de licenciatura, ITAM (1990); Stephen Haber, Industry and Underdevelopment; Dawn Keremitsis, 'Desarrollo de las plantas de energía y de la productión durante el Porfiriato', in Enrique Cárdenas (ed.), Historia económica de México 64 (Mexico, 1992), pp. 161-179; Carlos Marichal and Mario Cerutti (eds.), Historia de las grandes empresas en México, 1850-1930 (Mexico, 1997); Fernando Rosenzweig, 'La industria', in Daniel Cosío Villegas, (ed.), Historia moderna de México. El Porfiriato: La vida económica, vol. 1 (Mexico, 1965), pp. 311-481; and Alexander M. Saragoza, The Monterrey Elite and the Mexican State, 1880-1940 (Austin, 1988).
56. See the Reports of US Consuls A. Barlow and L. Kaiser in United States Department of State, Commercial Relations of the United States with Foreign Countries (Washington: 1901), pp. 453, 476; and Ramón Ruiz, Triumphs and Tragedy, (Norton: 1992), p. 279 among others. See also the sources listed in the previous note.
57. See the Reports of US Consuls A. Barlow and L. Kaiser in United States Department of State, Commercial Relations of the United States with Foreign Countries (Washington: 1901), pp. 453, 476; and Ramón Ruiz, Triumphs and Tragedy, (Norton: 1992), p. 279 among others. See also the sources listed in the previous note.
58. For output estimates for textiles, beer and cigarettes, see Haber, Industry and Underdevelopment, chapters 4, 8; for steel, see Gómez Galvarriato, 'El primer impulse', ch. 3.
59. For output estimates for textiles, beer and cigarettes, see Haber, Industry and Underdevelopment, chapters 4, 8; for steel, see Gómez Galvarriato, 'El primer impulso', ch. 3.
60. Consumer goods on the list were chosen on the basis (1) of secondary evidence that they were the subject of new industries and (2) the availability of import series published in Colegio de México, Estadísticas Económicas. The years 1895-1908 are the only ones for which yearly values are consistently presented. 1895 -1908 also represents a trough-to-trough subperiod in the cyclical rise and fall of Mexico's economy.
61. Calculated from Haber, Industry and Underdevelopment, Tables 4.1, 4.2, 4.3 and 8.1. The range of growth rates for each industry depends on how its growth is measured: for the textile industry, by raw cotton consumed or by number of looms; for the cigarette industry, by production volume or sales receipts.
62. Stephen Haber, 'Tasa de rendimiento de las manufacturas en el México porfiriano: La experiencia de la industria textil del algodón', El Trimestre Económico vol. 54, no. 2 (1997), pp. 241-72.
63. Steven Bunker, 'Consumers of Good Taste: Marketing Modernity in Northern Mexico, 1890-1910', Mexican Studies/Estudios Mexicanos vol. 13, no. 2 (1997), pp. 227-70.
64. United States, Department of State, Bureau of Foreign Commerce, Monthly Consular & Trade Reports, no. 307, April 1906, p. 200; and no. 332, May 1908, P. 188.
65. United States, Department of State, Bureau of Foreign Commerce, Monthly Consular & Trade Reports, no. 307, April 1906, p. 200; and no. 332, May 1908, P. 188.
66. El Economista Mexicano, 19 December, 1903; Diario Oficial, 15 March, 1905, 19 April, 1905, and 16 March, 1907; and Haber, Industry and Underdevelopment, pp. 51ff.
67. El Economista Mexicano, 19 December, 1903; Diario Oficial, 15 March, 1905, 19 April, 1905, and 16 March, 1907; and Haber, Industry and Underdevelopment, pp. 51ff.
68. El Economista Mexicano, 19 December, 1903; Diario Oficial, 15 March, 1905, 19 April, 1905, and 16 March, 1907; and Haber, Industry and Underdevelopment, pp. 51ff.
69. Haber, Industry and Underdevelopment, chapter 3.
70. Juan Ignacio Barragán and Mario Cerutti, Juan F. Brittingham y la industria en México 1859-1940 (Mexico: n.d.), p. 172. AGN: IN, caja 9, expediente 6, pp. 251-256, and expediente 4, pp. 13ff; caja 30, expediente 6, pp. 39ff; caja 39, expediente 4; and caja 28, expediente 7, pp. 64-73. See also United States, Department of Commerce and Labour, Bureau of Manufactures, Special Agent Series, vol. 22, p. 14.See also fixed capital expenditures for the Compañía Mexicana de Fundiciones y Constructora de carros, El Economista Mexicano, 3 October, 1903, p. 22 and The Mexican Herald, 29 May, 1905, p. 7.
71. Juan Ignacio Barragán and Mario Cerutti, Juan F. Brittingham y la industria en México 1859-1940 (Mexico: n.d.), p. 172. AGN: IN, caja 9, expediente 6, pp. 251-256, and expediente 4, pp. 13ff; caja 30, expediente 6, pp. 39ff; caja 39, expediente 4; and caja 28, expediente 7, pp. 64-73. See also United States, Department of Commerce and Labour, Bureau of Manufactures, Special Agent Series, vol. 22, p. 14.See also fixed capital expenditures for the Compañía Mexicana de Fundiciones y Constructora de carros, El Economista Mexicano, 3 October, 1903, p. 22 and The Mexican Herald, 29 May, 1905, p. 7.
72. Juan Ignacio Barragán and Mario Cerutti, Juan F. Brittingham y la industria en México 1859-1940 (Mexico: n.d.), p. 172. AGN: IN, caja 9, expediente 6, pp. 251-256, and expediente 4, pp. 13ff; caja 30, expediente 6, pp. 39ff; caja 39, expediente 4; and caja 28, expediente 7, pp. 64-73. See also United States, Department of Commerce and Labour, Bureau of Manufactures, Special Agent Series, vol. 22, p. 14. See also fixed capital expenditures for the Compañía Mexicana de Fundiciones y Constructora de carros, El Economista Mexicano, 3 October, 1903, p. 22 and The Mexican Herald, 29 May, 1905, p. 7.
73. Juan Ignacio Barragán and Mario Cerutti, Juan F. Brittingham y la industria en México 1859-1940 (Mexico: n.d.), p. 172. AGN: IN, caja 9, expediente 6, pp. 251-256, and expediente 4, pp. 13ff; caja 30, expediente 6, pp. 39ff; caja 39, expediente 4; and caja 28, expediente 7, pp. 64-73. See also United States, Department of Commerce and Labour, Bureau of Manufactures, Special Agent Series, vol. 22, p. 14.See also fixed capital expenditures for the Compañía Mexicana de Fundiciones y Constructora de carros, El Economista Mexicano, 3 October, 1903, p. 22 and The Mexican Herald, 29 May, 1905, p. 7.
74. AGN:IN, caja 9, expediente 7, pp. 23-28, caja 14, expediente 9, p. 92, and caja 21, expediente 9; William K. Meyers, Forge of Progress, Crucible of Revolt: The Origins of the Mexican Revolution in La Comarca Laguna, 1880-1911 (Albuquerque, 1994), pp. 64-65; Velasco Avila et al., Estado y minería, chapter 17.
75. AGN:IN, caja 9, expediente 7, pp. 23-28, caja 14, expediente 9, p. 92, and caja 21, expediente 9; William K. Meyers, Forge of Progress, Crucible of Revolt: The Origins of the Mexican Revolution in La Comarca Laguna, 1880-1911 (Albuquerque, 1994), pp. 64-65; Velasco Avila et al., Estado y minería, chapter 17.
76. AGN:IN, caja 6, pp. 53-54, and 7, pp. 63-74; Jesús Gómez Serrano, 'El desarrollo industrial de Aguascalientes durante el Porfiriato', Siglo XIX Cuadernos (1992), p. 28; La Semana Mercantil, 5 January, 1903.
77. AGN:IN, caja 6, pp. 53-54, and 7, pp. 63-74; Jesús Gómez Serrano, 'El desarrollo industrial de Aguascalientes durante el Porfiriato', Siglo XIX Cuadernos (1992), p. 28; La Semana Mercantil, 5 January, 1903.
78. Estadísticas económicas, p. 44.
79. Carlos Marichal, A Century of Debt Crises in Latin America (Princeton, 1989), p. 129; and Marichal, 'Obstacles to the Development of Capital Markets in Nineteenth-Century Mexico', in Haber (ed.), How Latin America Fell Behind, p. 133;
80. Carlos Marichal, A Century of Debt Crises in Latin America (Princeton, 1989), p. 129; and Marichal, 'Obstacles to the Development of Capital Markets in Nineteenth-Century Mexico', in Haber (ed.), How Latin America Fell Behind, p. 133;
81. Only rough estimates of foreign investment levels exist, but we do know that while foreign capital dominated the export sector, domestic capital likely exceeded new foreign investment in manufacturing by at least two to one. See note 3, above, and Vernon, Dilemma, pp. 44-45.
82. Catão, 'Transmission of Long Cycles', appendix, and Estadísticas históricas, Table 18.1. It might be argued that a large percentage of Mexican export revenue went straight to the pockets of foreign investors in the export sector, and consequently Mexico's visible trade balance was not as large as it appeared. This does not undermine the argument that any reduction in export revenue (or in the foreign investment that largely supported export revenue) would have jeopardised the country's ability to maintain high import levels without resorting to foreign borrowing. See G. Butler Sherwell, Mexico's Capacity to Pay (Washington, 1929).
83. Catão, 'Transmission of Long Cycles', appendix, and Estadísticas históricas, Table 18.1. It might be argued that a large percentage of Mexican export revenue went straight to the pockets of foreign investors in the export sector, and consequently Mexico's visible trade balance was not as large as it appeared. This does not undermine the argument that any reduction in export revenue (or in the foreign investment that largely supported export revenue) would have jeopardised the country's ability to maintain high import levels without resorting to foreign borrowing. See G. Butler Sherwell, Mexico's Capacity to Pay (Washington, 1929).
84. Edward Beatty, Institutions and Investment: The Political Origins of Industrialization in Mexico before 1911 (Stanford, forthcoming). See also William P. Glade, The Latin American Economies: A Study of Their Institutional Evolution (New York, 1969); Alan Knight, U.S.-Mexican Relations (La Jolla, 1987), pp. 71-73; Edward Beatty, 'Invención e innovación: ley de patentes y tecnología en el México del siglo xix', Historia Mexicana vol. 45, no. 3 (1996), pp. 567-619; Aurora Gómez, 'El desempeño de la Fundidora de Hierro y Acero de Monterrey durante el porfiriato', in Marichal and Cerutti (eds.), Las grandes empresas, pp. 201-244; and Graciela Márquez, 'Tariff Protection in Mexico, 1892-1909: Ad Valorem Rates and Sources of Variation', unpubl. manuscript, Harvard University, 1997.
85. Edward Beatty, Institutions and Investment: The Political Origins of Industrialization in Mexico before 1911 (Stanford, forthcoming). See also William P. Glade, The Latin American Economies: A Study of Their Institutional Evolution (New York, 1969); Alan Knight, U.S.-Mexican Relations (La Jolla, 1987), pp. 71-73; Edward Beatty, 'Invención e innovación: ley de patentes y tecnología en el México del siglo xix', Historia Mexicana vol. 45, no. 3 (1996), pp. 567-619; Aurora Gómez, 'El desempeño de la Fundidora de Hierro y Acero de Monterrey durante el porfiriato', in Marichal and Cerutti (eds.), Las grandes empresas, pp. 201-244; and Graciela Márquez, 'Tariff Protection in Mexico, 1892-1909: Ad Valorem Rates and Sources of Variation', unpubl. manuscript, Harvard University, 1997.
86. Edward Beatty, Institutions and Investment: The Political Origins of Industrialization in Mexico before 1911 (Stanford, forthcoming). See also William P. Glade, The Latin American Economies: A Study of Their Institutional Evolution (New York, 1969); Alan Knight, U.S.-Mexican Relations (La Jolla, 1987), pp. 71-73; Edward Beatty, 'Invención e innovación: ley de patentes y tecnología en el México del siglo xix', Historia Mexicana vol. 45, no. 3 (1996), pp. 567-619; Aurora Gómez, 'El desempeño de la Fundidora de Hierro y Acero de Monterrey durante el porfiriato', in Marichal and Cerutti (eds.), Las grandes empresas, pp. 201-244; and Graciela Márquez, 'Tariff Protection in Mexico, 1892-1909: Ad Valorem Rates and Sources of Variation', unpubl. manuscript, Harvard University, 1997.
87. Edward Beatty, Institutions and Investment: The Political Origins of Industrialization in Mexico before 1911 (Stanford, forthcoming). See also William P. Glade, The Latin American Economies: A Study of Their Institutional Evolution (New York, 1969); Alan Knight, U.S.-Mexican Relations (La Jolla, 1987), pp. 71-73; Edward Beatty, 'Invención e innovación: ley de patentes y tecnología en el México del siglo xix', Historia Mexicana vol. 45, no. 3 (1996), pp. 567-619; Aurora Gómez, 'El desempeño de la Fundidora de Hierro y Acero de Monterrey durante el porfiriato', in Marichal and Cerutti (eds.), Las grandes empresas, pp. 201-244; and Graciela Márquez, 'Tariff Protection in Mexico, 1892-1909: Ad Valorem Rates and Sources of Variation', unpubl. manuscript, Harvard University, 1997.
88. Edward Beatty, Institutions and Investment: The Political Origins of Industrialization in Mexico before 1911 (Stanford, forthcoming). See also William P. Glade, The Latin American Economies: A Study of Their Institutional Evolution (New York, 1969); Alan Knight, U.S.-Mexican Relations (La Jolla, 1987), pp. 71-73; Edward Beatty, 'Invención e innovación: ley de patentes y tecnología en el México del siglo xix', Historia Mexicana vol. 45, no. 3 (1996), pp. 567-619; Aurora Gómez, 'El desempeño de la Fundidora de Hierro y Acero de Monterrey durante el porfiriato', in Marichal and Cerutti (eds.), Las grandes empresas, pp. 201-244; and Graciela Márquez, 'Tariff Protection in Mexico, 1892-1909: Ad Valorem Rates and Sources of Variation', unpubl. manuscript, Harvard University, 1997.
89. Edward Beatty, Institutions and Investment: The Political Origins of Industrialization in Mexico before 1911 (Stanford, forthcoming). See also William P. Glade, The Latin American Economies: A Study of Their Institutional Evolution (New York, 1969); Alan Knight, U.S.-Mexican Relations (La Jolla, 1987), pp. 71-73; Edward Beatty, 'Invención e innovación: ley de patentes y tecnología en el México del siglo xix', Historia Mexicana vol. 45, no. 3 (1996), pp. 567-619; Aurora Gómez, 'El desempeño de la Fundidora de Hierro y Acero de Monterrey durante el porfiriato', in Marichal and Cerutti (eds.), Las grandes empresas, pp. 201-244; and Graciela Márquez, 'Tariff Protection in Mexico, 1892-1909: Ad Valorem Rates and Sources of Variation', unpubl. manuscript, Harvard University, 1997.
90. By 1980 agriculture and mining together contributed only 12.4 per cent of GDP; Estadísticas Historicas, cuadro 8.2. See also Enrique Cárdenas, La industrialización mexicana durante la gran depresión (Mexico: 1987); Sanford A. Mosk, Industrial Revolution in Mexico (Berkeley, 1954); and Clark Reynolds, The Mexican Economy (New Haven, 1970). Note that the appearance of new industries before the Revolution and the expansion of Mexican industry in the twentieth century says nothing about the desirability of such investment or the efficiency of the industry. In both eras, government protection and support may well have encouraged investment with little regard to competitive efficiency and largely neglecting or prejudicing small-scale agriculture.
91. By 1980 agriculture and mining together contributed only 12.4 per cent of GDP; Estadísticas Historicas, cuadro 8.2. See also Enrique Cárdenas, La industrialización mexicana durante la gran depresión (Mexico: 1987); Sanford A. Mosk, Industrial Revolution in Mexico (Berkeley, 1954); and Clark Reynolds, The Mexican Economy (New Haven, 1970). Note that the appearance of new industries before the Revolution and the expansion of Mexican industry in the twentieth century says nothing about the desirability of such investment or the efficiency of the industry. In both eras, government protection and support may well have encouraged investment with little regard to competitive efficiency and largely neglecting or prejudicing small-scale agriculture.
92. By 1980 agriculture and mining together contributed only 12.4 per cent of GDP; Estadísticas Historicas, cuadro 8.2. See also Enrique Cárdenas, La industrialización mexicana durante la gran depresión (Mexico: 1987); Sanford A. Mosk, Industrial Revolution in Mexico (Berkeley, 1954); and Clark Reynolds, The Mexican Economy (New Haven, 1970). Note that the appearance of new industries before the Revolution and the expansion of Mexican industry in the twentieth century says nothing about the desirability of such investment or the efficiency of the industry. In both eras, government protection and support may well have encouraged investment with little regard to competitive efficiency and largely neglecting or prejudicing small-scale agriculture.
93. By 1980 agriculture and mining together contributed only 12.4 per cent of GDP; Estadísticas Historicas, cuadro 8.2. See also Enrique Cárdenas, La industrialización mexicana durante la gran depresión (Mexico: 1987); Sanford A. Mosk, Industrial Revolution in Mexico (Berkeley, 1954); and Clark Reynolds, The Mexican Economy (New Haven, 1970). Note that the appearance of new industries before the Revolution and the expansion of Mexican industry in the twentieth century says nothing about the desirability of such investment or the efficiency of the industry. In both eras, government protection and support may well have encouraged investment with little regard to competitive efficiency and largely neglecting or prejudicing small-scale agriculture.
94. Estadísticas Históricas, cuadro 18.1.
95. See Cárdenas, La industrialización; Reynolds, Mexican Economy.
96. See Cárdenas, La industrialización; Reynolds, Mexican Economy.
97. United States, Department of the Treasury, Foreign Commerce and Navigation of the United States (Washington: yearly volumes 1880-1923).
98. Matthew Simon, 'The United States Balance of Payments, 1861-1900', Trends in the American Economy in the Nineteenth Century (Princeton: 1960), pp. 629-711; Cerutti. Burguesía, 1992, pp. 93-94.
99. Matthew Simon, 'The United States Balance of Payments, 1861-1900', Trends in the American Economy in the Nineteenth Century (Princeton: 1960), pp. 629-711; Cerutti. Burguesía, 1992, pp. 93-94.
100. United States, Commercial Relations, 1884-85, pp. 666-70; 1885-86, pp. 875, 902; 1886-87, p. 588; 1894-95, p. 336 and annual volumes 1880-1911.
101. United States, Commercial Relations, 1884-85, pp. 666-70; 1885-86, pp. 875, 902; 1886-87, p. 588; 1894-95, p. 336 and annual volumes 1880-1911.
102. United States, Commercial Relations, 1884-85, pp. 666-70; 1885-86, pp. 875, 902; 1886-87, p. 588; 1894-95, p. 336 and annual volumes 1880-1911.
103. United States, Commercial Relations, 1884-85, pp. 666-70; 1885-86, pp. 875, 902; 1886-87, p. 588; 1894-95, p. 336 and annual volumes 1880-1911.
104. Forthcoming work by Sandra Kuntz Ficker reconstructs Mexico's foreign trade using non-Mexican sources and adjusting for discrepancies in official statistics.
105. For comparison, Kreps' 1926 construction of price indices for US foreign trade accounts for 40-45 per cent of exports and 30-40 per cent of imports. Salvucci's price indices for US-Mexican trade from 1820-1860 account for 40-70 per cent of Mexican imports and 50-80 per cent of Mexican exports; see Salvucci, 'Origins and Progress', tables 3 & 4.
106. Lipsey, Price and Quantity Trends; Jastram, Silver, table 21, pp. 206-07; United States Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Historical Statistics of the United States, Colonial Times to 1957 (Washington: 1961). Complete details on class specifications for trade values and price indices are available from the author.
107. Lipsey, Price and Quantity Trends; Jastram, Silver, table 21, pp. 206-07; United States Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Historical Statistics of the United States, Colonial Times to 1957 (Washington: 1961). Complete details on class specifications for trade values and price indices are available from the author.
108. Lipsey, Price and Quantity Trends; Jastram, Silver, table 21, pp. 206-07; United States Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Historical Statistics of the United States, Colonial Times to 1957 (Washington: 1961). Complete details on class specifications for trade values and price indices are available from the author.
109. From 1881-1910 the import and export price indices for Mexico's bilateral trade with the United States (calculated here) differ remarkably little from those calculated by Catão for Mexico's total foreign trade. After 1910 Catão measures higher price inflation than shown here. See Catão, 'Transmission of Long Cycles', appendix.