Olive phenology as a sensitive indicator of future climatic warming in the Mediterranean

Plant, Cell and Environment

Volumn 23, Issue 7, 2000, Pages 701-710

  Osborne, C P ^a   Chuine, I ^b,c   Viner, D ^d   Woodward, F I ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF SHEFFIELD   (United Kingdom)

^b UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA   (Canada)

^c INSTITUT DES SCIENCES DE L EVOLUTION   (France)

^d UNIVERSITY OF EAST ANGLIA   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Airborne pollen; Mediterranean; Olea europaea; Phenology models; Regional climate change

Indexed keywords

BIOINDICATOR; CLIMATE CHANGE; FLOWERING; PHENOLOGY; POLLEN RAIN; WARMING;

MEDITERRANEAN REGION;

EID: 0033905842     PISSN: 01407791     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1046/j.1365-3040.2000.00584.x     Document Type: Article

References (59)

1. Belmonte J. & Roure J.M. (1991) Characteristics of the aeropollen dynamics at several localities in Spain. Grana 30, 364-372.
2. Blondel J. & Aronson J. (1999) Biology and Wildlife of the Mediterranean Region. Oxford University Press, Oxford.
3. Bradley N.L., Leopold A.C., Ross J. & Huffaker W. (1999) Phenological changes reflect climate change in Wisconsin. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 96, 9701-9704.
4. Bricchi E., Frenguelli G., Mincigrucci G., Fornaciari M., Ferranti F. & Romano B. (1995) Time linkages between pollination onsets of different taxa over an 11-year period in Perugia, Central Italy. Aerobiologia 11, 57-61.
5. Cannell M.G.R. & Smith R.I. (1983) Thermal time, chill days and prediction of budburst in Picea sitchensis. Journal of Applied Ecology 20, 951-963.
6. Chatfield C. (1988) Problem Solving: A Statistician's Guide. Chapman & Hall, London.
7. Chuine I., Cour P. & Rousseau D.D. (1998) Fitting models predicting dates of flowering of temperate-zone trees using simulated annealing. Plant, Cell and Environment 21, 455-466.
8. Chuine I., Cour P. & Rousseau D.D. (1999) Selecting models to predict the timing of flowering of temperate trees: implications for tree phenology modelling. Plant, Cell and Environment 22, 1-13.
9. Chuine I., Belmonte J. & Mignot A. (2000) A modelling analysis of the genetic variation of phenology between tree populations. Journal of Ecology 88, 1-12.
10. ieme Colloque Sur les Recherches Fruitières. pp. 5-19. INRA-CITFL, Bordeaux.
11. Crick H.P.Q. & Sparks T.H. (1999) Climate change related to egg-laying trends. Nature 399, 423-424.
12. Dallman P.R. (1998) Plant Life in the World's Mediterranean Climates. The Mediterranean Basin, South Africa, Australia, Chile, and California. Oxford University Press, Oxford.
13. Denney J.O., McEachern G.R. & Griffiths J.F. (1985) Modeling the thermal adaptability of the olive (Olea europaea L.) in Texas. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 35, 309-327.
14. Díaz de la Guardia C., Valle F., Alonso R. & Romero R. (1993) Annual, daily and diurnal variations in pollen from Olea europaea L. in the atmosphere of Granada (Spain). Journal of Investigative Allergology and Clinical Immunology 3, 251-257.
15. Domínguez Vilches E., García-Pantaleón F.I., Galán Soldevilla C., Guerra Pasadas F. & Villamandos de la Torre F. (1993) Variations in the concentrations of airborne Olea pollen and associated pollinosis in Córdoba (Spain): a study of the 10-year period 1982-91. Journal of Investigative Allergology and Clinical Immunology 3, 121-129.
16. Farmer R.E. (1993) Latitudinal variation in height and phenology of balsam poplar. Silvae Genetica 42, 148-152.
17. Frenguelli G., Bricchi E., Romano B., Mincigrucci G. & Spieksma F.T.M. (1989) A predictive study on the beginning of the pollen season for Gramineae and Olea europaea L. Aerobiologia 5, 64-70.
18. Gioulekas D., Chatzigeorgiou G., Lykogiannis S., Papakosta D., Mpalafoutis C. & Spieksma F.T.M. (1991) Olea europaea 3-year pollen record in the area of Thessaloniki, Greece and its sensitizing significance. Aerobiologia 7, 57-61.
19. González Minero F.J. & Candau P. (1997) Olea europaea airborne pollen in southern Spain. Annals of Allergy, Asthma, and Immunology 78, 278-284.
20. Hackett W.P. & Hartmann H.T. (1964) Inflorescence formation in olive as influenced by low temperature, photoperiod, and leaf area. Botanical Gazette 125, 65-72.
21. Hänninen H. (1990) Modelling bud dormancy release in trees from cool and temperate regions. Acta Forestalia Fennica 213, 1-47.
22. Hänninen H. (1995) Effects of climatic change on trees from cool and temperate regions: an ecophysiological approach to modelling of bud burst phenology. Canadian Journal of Botany 73, 183-199.
23. Heide O.M. (1993) Daylength and thermal time responses of budburst during dormancy release in some northern deciduous trees. Physiologia Plantarum 88, 531-540.
24. Jones P.D., New M., Parker D.E., Martin S. & Rigor I.G. (1999) Surface air temperature and its changes over the past 150 years. Reviews of Geophysics 37, 173-199.
25. Keynan N., Waisel Y., Shomer-Ilan A., Goren A. & Brener S. (1991) Annual variations of air-borne pollen in the coastal plain of Israel. Grana 30, 477-480.
26. Kuser J.E. & Ching K.K. (1980) Provenance variation in phenology and cold hardiness of western hemlock seedlings. Forest Science 26, 463-470.
27. Li P., Beaulieu J., Corriveau A. & Bousquet J. (1993) Genetic variation in juvenile growth and phenology in a white spruce provenance-progeny test. Silvae Genetica 42, 52-60.
28. Li P., Beaulieu J. & Bousquet J. (1997a) Genetic structure and patterns of genetic variation among populations in eastern white spruce (Picea glauca). Canadian Journal of Forest Research 27, 189-198.
29. Li P., Beaulieu J., Daoust G. & Plourde A. (1997b) Patterns of adaptive variation in eastern white pine (Pinus strobus) from Quebec. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 27, 199-206.
30. Lieth H. (1974) Phenology and Seasonality Modelling. Springer Verlag, New York.
31. Menzel A. & Fabian P. (1999) Growing season extended in Europe. Nature 397, 659.
32. Mitchell J.F.B., Johns T.C., Gregory J.M. & Tett S.F.B. (1995) Climate response to increasing greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols. Nature 376, 501-504.
33. Mitchell J.F.B., Johns T.C., Eagles M., Ingram W.J. & Davis R.A. (1999) Towards the construction of climate change scenarios. Climatic Change 41, 547-581.
34. 2 and Temperature (ed. P.G. Jarvis), pp. 94-125. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
35. Myneni R.B., Keeling C.D., Tucker C.J., Asrar G. & Nemani R.R. (1997) Increased plant growth in the northern high latitudes from 1981 to 1991. Nature 386, 698-702.
36. New M., Hulme M. & Jones P. (1999) Representing twentieth-century space-time climate variability. Part I: development of a 1961-90 mean monthly terrestrial climatology. Journal of Climate 12, 829-856.
37. New M., Hulme M. & Jones P. (2000) Representing twentieth-century space-time climate variability. Part II: development of 1901-96 monthly terrestrial climate fields. Journal of Climate in press.
38. van Niejenhuis A. & Parker W.H. (1996) Adaptive variation in jack pine from north central Ontario determined by short-term common garden tests. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 26, 2006-2014.
39. O'Neil P. (1999) Selection on flowering time: an adaptive fitness surface for nonexistent character combinations. Ecology 80, 806-820.
40. Osborne C.P. & Woodward F.I. (2000) Biological mechanisms underlying recent increases in the NDVI of Mediterranean shrublands. International Journal of Remote Sensing in press.
41. 2 and climate change on Mediterranean vegetation. Global Change Biology 6, 1-14.
42. Ouazzani N., Lumaret R., Villemur P. & Di Guistro F. (1993) Leaf allozymes variation in cultivated olive trees (Olea europaea L.). Journal of Heredity 84, 34-42.
43. Ouazzani N., Lumaret R. & Villemur P. (1996) Genetic variation in the olive tree (Olea europaea L.) cultivated in Morocco. Euphytica 91, 9-20.
44. Parmesan C., Ryrholm N., Stefanescu C., et al. (1999) Poleward shifts in geographical ranges of butterfly species associated with regional warming. Nature 399, 579-583.
45. Perry T.O. & Wang L.W. (1960) Genetic variation in the winter chilling requirement for date of dormancy break for Acer rubrum. Ecology 41, 790-794.
46. Pinto da Silva Q.G. (1960) The incidence of Olea pollen in Portugal in five consecutive years. Acta Allergologica 15, 107-112.
47. Rallo L. & Martin G.C. (1991) The role of chilling in releasing olive floral buds from dormancy. Journal of the American Society for Horticultural Science 116, 1058-1062.
48. Recio M., Cabezudo B., Mar Trigo M. & Javier Toro F. (1996) Olea europaea pollen in the atmosphere of Málaga (S. Spain) and its relationship with meteorological parameters. Grana 35, 308-313.
49. Rosenblum M. (1997) Olives. The Life and Lore of a Noble Fruit. North Point Press, New York.
50. Sarvas R. (1974) Investigations on the annual cycle of development of forest trees. Autumn dormancy and winter dormancy. Communicationes II. Instituti Forestalis Fenniae 84, 1-101.
51. 2 and the carbon cycle. In: Climate Change 1994. Radiative Forcing of Climate Change and an Evaluation of the IPCC IS92 Emission Scenarios (eds J.T. Houghton, L.G. Meira Filho, J. Bruce, et al.), pp. 35-71. Cambridge University Press. Cambridge.
52. Schimel D., Alves D., Enting I., et al. (1996) Radiative forcing of climate change. In: Climate Change 1995. The Science of Climate Change (eds J.T. Houghton, L.G. Meira Filho, B.A. Callander et al.), pp. 65-131. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
53. Schwartz M.D. (1998) Green-wave phenology. Nature 394, 839-840.
54. Sokal R.R. & Rohlf F.J. (1981) Biometry. 2nd edn. W.H. Freeman, New York.
55. Tas J. & Feinbrun N. (1962) A survey of airborne pollen in Jerusalem. Acta Allergologia 17, 246-267.
56. Tett S.F.B., Johns T.C. & Mitchell J.F.B. (1997) Global and regional variability in a coupled AOGCM. Climate Dynamics 13, 303-323.
57. Thomas C.D. & Lennon J.J. (1999) Birds extend their range northwards. Nature 399, 213.
58. Wareing P.F. (1956) Photoperiodism in woody plants. Annual Review of Plant Physiology 7, 191-214.
59. von Wuehlisch G., Krusche D. & Muhs H.-J. (1995) Variation in temperature sum requirement for flushing of beech provenances. Silvae Genetica 44, 343-350.