Requiem or respite? An assessment of the current state of the U.S. alternative fuel vehicle market

Strategic Planning for Energy and the Environment

Volumn 19, Issue 4, 2000, Pages 43-62

  Winebrake, James J ^a,b,c  

^a JAMES MADISON UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA   (United States)

^c LAFAYETTE COLLEGE   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ALTERNATIVE FUEL VEHICLES (AFV);

COST EFFECTIVENESS; ELECTRIC AUTOMOBILES; ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION; SYNTHETIC FUELS;

ENERGY POLICY;

EID: 0033744317     PISSN: 10485236     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: None     Document Type: Article

References (15)

1. Many of the figures in this article are derived from data found in S. Davis (1998) Transportation Energy Data Book, Edition 18, Center for Transportation Analysis, Oak Ridge National Lab, ORNL-6941, September. In particular, interested readers should consult Tables 1.8, 1.9, 2.5, and 2.12.
2. See section 502(b) of EPACT for more information on the petroleum displacement goals.
3. Light-duty vehicles are those vehicles with gross-vehicle weight of 8,500 Ibs or less. This analysis is reflective of that found in U.S. Department of Energy (1997) Replacement Fuel and Alternative Fuel Vehicle Technical and Policy Analysis, July.
4. Much of the data referred to in this section is from the Updated Reference Case Forecast values in Energy Information Administration (1999) Annual Energy Outlook 1999, Table A7.
5. Miles per gallon gasoline equivalent (m/gge) is a useful way to measure fuel efficiency for fuels that have different heat content relative to gasoline. A fuel's gge is calculated by taking the fuel's energy content (in BTU/gallon) and dividing by standard gasoline energy content. For example, ethanol has a heat content of 72,000 BTU/gallon, whereas gasoline has a heat content of 132,000 BTU/gallon; thus a gallon of ethanol represents 0.55 gge. Alternatively, one needs 1.8 gallons of ethanol to obtain the same energy as 1 gallon of gasoline, and so 1.8 gallons of ethanol is 1 gge.
6. "Fuel providers" are those companies in the business of supplying fuel for transportation or other uses. In most cases, these companies include natural gas utilities, electric utilities, and petroleum refiners.
7. Original EPACT requirements have been strengthened by Executive Orders 12844 (April 21, 1993) and 13031 (December 13, 1996). The final state and fuel provider mandates are taken from Federal Register, Vol. 61, p.10622, March 14, 1996 (also see 10 CFR Part 490). Private and municipal fleet requirements are proposed in Federal Register, Vol. 62, p.19701, April 23, 1997; additional rulemaking is required by January 1, 2000, for these requirements to take effect. For more updated information on EPACT requirements, readers are encouraged to explore the DOE Alternative Fuels Data Center webpage at http://www.afdc.doe.gov.
8. Original EPACT requirements have been strengthened by Executive Orders 12844 (April 21, 1993) and 13031 (December 13, 1996). The final state and fuel provider mandates are taken from Federal Register, Vol. 61, p.10622, March 14, 1996 (also see 10 CFR Part 490). Private and municipal fleet requirements are proposed in Federal Register, Vol. 62, p.19701, April 23, 1997; additional rulemaking is required by January 1, 2000, for these requirements to take effect. For more updated information on EPACT requirements, readers are encouraged to explore the DOE Alternative Fuels Data Center webpage at http://www.afdc.doe.gov.
9. S. Davis (1998) Figure 9.1.
10. The figures in this section are derived primarily from data in Energy Information Administration (1999) Alternatives to Traditional Transportation Fuels 1997.
11. Most AFVs offered are for select model classes and engine sizes. More detailed information can be obtained from the DOE Alternative Fuels Data Center webpage at http://www.afdc.doe.gov.
12. It should be mentioned that some alternative fuels do not need extensive modifications to the existing gasoline infrastructure. For example the alcohol fuels (E85 and M85) can easily use gasoline service stations with little modification. However the gaseous fuels (LPG and CNG) require large investments in station development (the average cost of a CNG station is about $250,OOO to serve a population of about 150-200 vehicles; it is about $50,000 for LPG). Any kind of infrastructure for electric refueling is also expensive.
13. Alternative Fuels Data Center, May 12, 1999. Numbers represent public and private alternative refueling sites throughout the U.S. Total gasoline station estimate is from National Petroleum News, May, 1998.
14. Data from S. Davis (1998). OPEC countries include Saudi Arabia, Iran, Venezuela, Libya, Indonesia, United Arab Emirates, Algeria, Nigeria, Ecuador, Gabon, Iraq, Kuwait, and Qatar.
15. S. Davis (1998) Table 4-1. Values represent price in January 1997 for a gallon of premium gasoline.