Underinvestment: The energy technology and RandD policy challenge

Science

Volumn 285, Issue 5428, 1999, Pages 690-692

  Margolis, Robert M ^a   Kammen, Daniel M ^b  

^a PRINCETON UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ENERGY POLICY; ENERGY RESOURCE; ENERGY USE;

ENERGY; FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT; INVESTMENT; PATENT; POLICY; PRIORITY JOURNAL; RESEARCH; SHORT SURVEY; TECHNOLOGY; UNITED STATES;

EID: 0033618544     PISSN: 00368075     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1126/science.285.5428.690     Document Type: Short Survey

References (34)

1. See, for example, "Unlocking Our Future: Toward a New National Science Policy" (House Committee on Science, U.S. House of Representatives, 1998); D. E. Stokes, Pasteur's Quadrant: Basic Science and Technological Innovation (Brookings Institution, Washington, DC, 1997); "Allocating Funds for Science and Technology" (Committee on Criteria for Federal Support of Research and Development, National Research Council, Washington, DC, 1995); R. M. May, Science 275, 793 (1997); ibid. 281, 49 (1998).
2. See, for example, "Unlocking Our Future: Toward a New National Science Policy" (House Committee on Science, U.S. House of Representatives, 1998); D. E. Stokes, Pasteur's Quadrant: Basic Science and Technological Innovation (Brookings Institution, Washington, DC, 1997); "Allocating Funds for Science and Technology" (Committee on Criteria for Federal Support of Research and Development, National Research Council, Washington, DC, 1995); R. M. May, Science 275, 793 (1997); ibid. 281, 49 (1998).
3. See, for example, "Unlocking Our Future: Toward a New National Science Policy" (House Committee on Science, U.S. House of Representatives, 1998); D. E. Stokes, Pasteur's Quadrant: Basic Science and Technological Innovation (Brookings Institution, Washington, DC, 1997); "Allocating Funds for Science and Technology" (Committee on Criteria for Federal Support of Research and Development, National Research Council, Washington, DC, 1995); R. M. May, Science 275, 793 (1997); ibid. 281, 49 (1998).
4. See, for example, "Unlocking Our Future: Toward a New National Science Policy" (House Committee on Science, U.S. House of Representatives, 1998); D. E. Stokes, Pasteur's Quadrant: Basic Science and Technological Innovation (Brookings Institution, Washington, DC, 1997); "Allocating Funds for Science and Technology" (Committee on Criteria for Federal Support of Research and Development, National Research Council, Washington, DC, 1995); R. M. May, Science 275, 793 (1997); ibid. 281, 49 (1998).
5. See, for example, "Unlocking Our Future: Toward a New National Science Policy" (House Committee on Science, U.S. House of Representatives, 1998); D. E. Stokes, Pasteur's Quadrant: Basic Science and Technological Innovation (Brookings Institution, Washington, DC, 1997); "Allocating Funds for Science and Technology" (Committee on Criteria for Federal Support of Research and Development, National Research Council, Washington, DC, 1995); R. M. May, Science 275, 793 (1997); ibid. 281, 49 (1998).
6. See for example, J. J. Dooley, Energy Policy 26, 547 (1998); "Federal Research: Changes in Electricity-Related R&D Funding," GAO/RCED-96-203 (U.S. General Accounting Office, Washington, DC, 1996); "Federal Energy Research and Development for the Challenges of the Twenty-First Century" (Energy Research and Development Panel, President's Committee of Advisors on Science and Technology, 1997); M. C. Morgan and S. F. Tiemey, Issues Sci. Technol. 15, 81 (1998).
7. See for example, J. J. Dooley, Energy Policy 26, 547 (1998); "Federal Research: Changes in Electricity-Related R&D Funding," GAO/RCED-96-203 (U.S. General Accounting Office, Washington, DC, 1996); "Federal Energy Research and Development for the Challenges of the Twenty-First Century" (Energy Research and Development Panel, President's Committee of Advisors on Science and Technology, 1997); M. C. Morgan and S. F. Tiemey, Issues Sci. Technol. 15, 81 (1998).
8. See for example, J. J. Dooley, Energy Policy 26, 547 (1998); "Federal Research: Changes in Electricity-Related R&D Funding," GAO/RCED-96-203 (U.S. General Accounting Office, Washington, DC, 1996); "Federal Energy Research and Development for the Challenges of the Twenty-First Century" (Energy Research and Development Panel, President's Committee of Advisors on Science and Technology, 1997); M. C. Morgan and S. F. Tiemey, Issues Sci. Technol. 15, 81 (1998).
9. See for example, J. J. Dooley, Energy Policy 26, 547 (1998); "Federal Research: Changes in Electricity-Related R&D Funding," GAO/RCED-96-203 (U.S. General Accounting Office, Washington, DC, 1996); "Federal Energy Research and Development for the Challenges of the Twenty-First Century" (Energy Research and Development Panel, President's Committee of Advisors on Science and Technology, 1997); M. C. Morgan and S. F. Tiemey, Issues Sci. Technol. 15, 81 (1998).
10. See, for example, A. K. N. Reddy, R. H. Williams, T. B. Johansson, Eds., Energy After Rio: Prospects and Challenges (United Nations Development Program, New York, 1997); E. A. Parson and D. W. Keith, Science 282, 1053 (1998); R. T. Watson, M. C. Zinyowera, R. Moss, D. J. Dokken, Eds., Climate Change 1995: Impacts, Adaptations and Mitigation of Climate Change: Scientific-Technical Analyses (Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, UK, 1996).
11. See, for example, A. K. N. Reddy, R. H. Williams, T. B. Johansson, Eds., Energy After Rio: Prospects and Challenges (United Nations Development Program, New York, 1997); E. A. Parson and D. W. Keith, Science 282, 1053 (1998); R. T. Watson, M. C. Zinyowera, R. Moss, D. J. Dokken, Eds., Climate Change 1995: Impacts, Adaptations and Mitigation of Climate Change: Scientific-Technical Analyses (Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, UK, 1996).
12. See, for example, A. K. N. Reddy, R. H. Williams, T. B. Johansson, Eds., Energy After Rio: Prospects and Challenges (United Nations Development Program, New York, 1997); E. A. Parson and D. W. Keith, Science 282, 1053 (1998); R. T. Watson, M. C. Zinyowera, R. Moss, D. J. Dokken, Eds., Climate Change 1995: Impacts, Adaptations and Mitigation of Climate Change: Scientific-Technical Analyses (Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, UK, 1996).
13. "IEA Energy Technology R&D Statistics, 1974-1995" (International Energy Agency, Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, Paris, 1997).
14. This point is illustrated in discussions of the central role played by energy technology in responding to climate change; see M. I. Hoffert et al., Nature 395, 881 (1998); A. P. Kinzig and D. M. Kammen, Global Environ. Change 8, 183 (1998).
15. This point is illustrated in discussions of the central role played by energy technology in responding to climate change; see M. I. Hoffert et al., Nature 395, 881 (1998); A. P. Kinzig and D. M. Kammen, Global Environ. Change 8, 183 (1998).
16. See Z. Griliches, Science 237, 31 (1987); R. E. Evenson, P. E. Waggoner, V. W. Ruttan, ibid. 205, 1101 (1979); E. Mansfield, ibid. 175, 477 (1972). For reviews of the economic literature see N. L. Stokey, Rev. Econ. Stud. 62, 469 (1995); M. I. Nadiri, "Innovations and Technological Spillovers," NBER Working Paper 4423 (National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA, 1993).
17. See Z. Griliches, Science 237, 31 (1987); R. E. Evenson, P. E. Waggoner, V. W. Ruttan, ibid. 205, 1101 (1979); E. Mansfield, ibid. 175, 477 (1972). For reviews of the economic literature see N. L. Stokey, Rev. Econ. Stud. 62, 469 (1995); M. I. Nadiri, "Innovations and Technological Spillovers," NBER Working Paper 4423 (National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA, 1993).
18. See Z. Griliches, Science 237, 31 (1987); R. E. Evenson, P. E. Waggoner, V. W. Ruttan, ibid. 205, 1101 (1979); E. Mansfield, ibid. 175, 477 (1972). For reviews of the economic literature see N. L. Stokey, Rev. Econ. Stud. 62, 469 (1995); M. I. Nadiri, "Innovations and Technological Spillovers," NBER Working Paper 4423 (National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA, 1993).
19. See Z. Griliches, Science 237, 31 (1987); R. E. Evenson, P. E. Waggoner, V. W. Ruttan, ibid. 205, 1101 (1979); E. Mansfield, ibid. 175, 477 (1972). For reviews of the economic literature see N. L. Stokey, Rev. Econ. Stud. 62, 469 (1995); M. I. Nadiri, "Innovations and Technological Spillovers," NBER Working Paper 4423 (National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA, 1993).
20. See Z. Griliches, Science 237, 31 (1987); R. E. Evenson, P. E. Waggoner, V. W. Ruttan, ibid. 205, 1101 (1979); E. Mansfield, ibid. 175, 477 (1972). For reviews of the economic literature see N. L. Stokey, Rev. Econ. Stud. 62, 469 (1995); M. I. Nadiri, "Innovations and Technological Spillovers," NBER Working Paper 4423 (National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA, 1993).
21. L. R. Cohen and R. G. Noll, The Technology Pork Barrel (Brookings Institution, Washington, DC, 1991).
22. Dollar values (unless otherwise noted) have been converted from current to constant 1996 dollars by using the gross domestic product chain-type price index (available at www.bea.doc.gov/bea/dn/0898nip3/ table3.htm).
23. 2 of 0.72 and a t statistic of 7.0 (significant at the 1% level).
24. 2 of 0.84 and a t statistic of 10.0 (significant at the 1% level).
25. The investment-patent record for fossil-fuel, renewable, and nuclear energy has been studied separately (R. M. Margolis and D. M. Kammen, Energy Policy, in press).
26. Energy products are generally sold at very small margins (fractions of a cent per kilowatt-hour) so that alternate measures, such as the price/earnings ratio for energy companies, also warrant study.
27. N. Nakicenovic et al., Energy 18, 401 (1993).
28. The U.S. Patent and Trademark Office's "Patent Bibliographic Database" is available at www.uspto.gov/ web/offices/ac/ido/oeip/patbib/index.html.
29. "National Patterns of Research and Development Resources" (National Science Foundation, Washington, DC, published annually). The most recent volume of this NSF publication (and many others) is available at www.nsf.gov/sbe/srs/pubdata.htm.
30. See "Federal R&D Funding by Budget Function" (National Science Foundation, Washington, DC, published annually), Table 12. We define U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Energy Technology R&D as the sum of expenditures for fossil-fuel energy, nuclear energy, magnetic fusion, solar and renewable energy, and energy conservation.
31. Data on R&D are included in "Research and Development in Industry" (National Science Foundation, Washington, DC, published annually).
32. "Annual Report" (Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, CA, published annually).
33. "State Energy Price and Expenditure Report 1995" (Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, DC, 1997).
34. We thank S. DeCanio, S. Devotta, J. Holdren, H. Dowlatabadi, R. May, A. Rosenfeld, and V. Ruttan for comments and advice. Supported by the Summit Foundation and the Class of 1934 Preceptorship at Princeton University, both awarded to D.M.K.