Costs of multigreenhouse gas reduction targets for the USA

Science

Volumn 286, Issue 5441, 1999, Pages 905-906

  Hayhoe, Katharine ^a   Jain, Atul ^a   Pitcher, Hugh ^b   MacCracken, Chris ^b   Gibbs, Michael ^c   Wuebbles, Donald ^a   Harvey, Reid ^d   Kruger, Dina ^d  

^a UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS AT URBANA CHAMPAIGN   (United States)

^b PACIFIC NORTHWEST NATIONAL LABORATORY   (United States)

^c ICF Kaiser Consulting   (United States)

^d U S ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CARBON DIOXIDE; METHANE;

CLIMATE; ECONOMIC ASPECT; GAS ANALYSIS; GREENHOUSE EFFECT; POLICY; PRIORITY JOURNAL; REVIEW; UNITED STATES;

EID: 0033615488     PISSN: 00368075     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1126/science.286.5441.905     Document Type: Review

References (21)

1. "Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change" (UNFCCC/CP/1997/ L.7/Add.1, United Nations, 1997).
2. "U.S. methane emissions 1990-2020: Inventories, projections, and opportunities for reductions" [EPA 430-R-99-013, Methane Energy Branch, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Washington, DC, 1999] www.epa.gov/ghginfo/new.htm.
3. 4 can vary owing to a number of factors, including atmospheric chemistry, as discussed in K. Hayhoe et al., in (18), in press.
4. "Inventory of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions and sinks: 1990-1997" (EPA 236-R-99-003, Methane Energy Branch, EPA, Washington, DC, 1999), www.epa.gov/ globalwarming/inventory.
5. See M. Munasinghe et al., in (19), pp. 145-177.
6. R. Harvey and F. de la Chesnaye, in (18), in press.
7. "Scenarios of U.S. carbon reductions: Potential impacts of energy-efficient and low-carbon technologies by 2010 and beyond" (Interlaboratory Working Group on Energy-Efficient and Low-Carbon Technologies, 1998), www.ornl.gov/ORNL/Energy_Eff/labweb.htm; J. Hourcade et al., in (19), pp. 263-296 and 297-366.
8. "Scenarios of U.S. carbon reductions: Potential impacts of energy-efficient and low-carbon technologies by 2010 and beyond" (Interlaboratory Working Group on Energy-Efficient and Low-Carbon Technologies, 1998), www.ornl.gov/ORNL/Energy_Eff/labweb.htm; J. Hourcade et al., in (19), pp. 263-296 and 297-366.
9. The SGM assumes that a carbon permit fee provides an economic incentive for various sectors to substitute products and processes that reduce carbon use and emissions. Abatement costs are for U.S. domestic reductions and do not include international emissions trading (J. A. Edmonds, C. N. MacCracken, R. D. Sands, S. H. Kim, "Unfinished business: The economics of the Kyoto Protocol" (Technical Report PNNL-12021, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Washington, DC, 1998).
10. 4 (6).
11. 2O), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs) and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6). For the first three gases, the baseline year is 1990, whereas the protocol allows nations to choose between 1990 or 1995 as a baseline for the three remaining gases. The exact value of the Kyoto target is impossible to determine now, as it depends on baseline emission estimates that are periodically updated, and additional issues such as the inclusion of carbon sinks and contribution of international trading.
12. A 2.2% average annual growth rate is projected for the U.S. GDP from 1990 to 2010 (8).
13. 4 projections by (2), and projections for the remaining gases by (13).
14. "Climate Action Report 1997 - Submission of the USA under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change" (Department of State Publication 10496, U.S. Government, 1997), www.unfccc.de.
15. 4 are not strictly "business-as-usual," as they include emission reductions resulting from the Climate Change Action Plan (W. J. Clinton and A. G. Gore Jr., October 1993), www.gcrio.org/USCCAP/toc.html.
16. The assumptions made in this study have only a limited impact on the results over 10 years but become important at longer time scales.
17. "The Kyoto Protocol and the President's policies to address climate change: Administration economic analysis" (U.S. Government, Washington, DC, 1998), www.whitehouse.gov/WH/New/html/kyoto.pdf.
18. D. Schimel et al., in Climate Change 1995: Economic and Social Dimensions of Climate Change, J. C. Houghton et al., Eds. (Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, 1996), vol. 1, pp. 65-131.
19. 2 Greenhouse Gases (Kluwer Academic, Dordrecht, the Netherlands, in press).
20. J. P. Bruce et al., Eds., Climate Change 1995: Economic and Social Dimensions of Climate Change (Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, 1996), vol. 3.
21. We thank J. A. Edmonds and F. de la Chesnaye for helpful comments. The work of K. Hayhoe and A. Jain was supported in part by grants from the U.S. EPA (CX825749-01) and from related support on tools and methods of assessment from the BER Program, U.S. Department of Energy (DEFG02-99ER62741).