Complexity and the economy

Science

Volumn 284, Issue 5411, 1999, Pages 107-109

  Arthur, W Brian ^a  

^a SANTA FE INSTITUTE   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

BEHAVIOR; ECONOMICS; MARKETING; PREDICTION; PRIORITY JOURNAL; REVIEW; STATISTICAL MODEL;

EID: 0033515834     PISSN: 00368075     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1126/science.284.5411.107     Document Type: Review

References (33)

1. P. Anderson, K. J. Arrow, D. Pines, Eds., The Economy As an Evolving Complex System (Addison-Wesley, Reading, MA, 1988).
2. W. B. Arthur, S. N. Durlauf, D. A. Lane, Eds., The Economy As an Evolving Complex System II (Addison-Wesley, Reading, MA, 1997).
3. W. B. Arthur, Sci. Am. 262, 92 (1990).
4. _, Increasing Returns and Path Dependence in the Economy (Univ. of Michigan Press, Ann Arbor, MI, 1994).
5. I have avoided exact definitions of "complexity" and "complex systems." Technically, the systems I have described are referred to as adaptive nonlinear networks (J. H. Holland's term), and typically if they exhibit certain properties that have to do with the multiplicity of potential patterns or with the coherence or propagation of substructures, they are said to be "complex." Definitions vary widely.
6. A. Marshall, Principles of Economics (Macmillan, London, ed. 8, 1920), p. 459.
7. E. Helpman and P. R. Krugman, Market Structure and Foreign Trade (MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 1985).
8. W. B. Arthur, Econ. J. 99, 116 (1989).
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10. _, Math. Soc. Sci. 19, 235 (1990); P. R. Krugman, J. Polit. Econ. 99, 483 (1991); in (2), p. 239; Geography and Trade (MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 1991).
11. _, Math. Soc. Sci. 19, 235 (1990); P. R. Krugman, J. Polit. Econ. 99, 483 (1991); in (2), p. 239; Geography and Trade (MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 1991).
12. S. N. Durlauf, in (2), p. 81; J. Econ. Growth 1, 75 (1996).
13. W. B. Arthur, Am. Econ. Rev. 84, 406 (1994).
14. J. Casti, Complexity 1 (no. 5), 7 (1995/96); N. Johnson et al., Physica A 256, 230 (1998); D. Challet and Y.-C. Zhang, ibid. 246, 407 (1997); ibid. 256, 514 (1998).
15. J. Casti, Complexity 1 (no. 5), 7 (1995/96); N. Johnson et al., Physica A 256, 230 (1998); D. Challet and Y.-C. Zhang, ibid. 246, 407 (1997); ibid. 256, 514 (1998).
16. J. Casti, Complexity 1 (no. 5), 7 (1995/96); N. Johnson et al., Physica A 256, 230 (1998); D. Challet and Y.-C. Zhang, ibid. 246, 407 (1997); ibid. 256, 514 (1998).
17. J. Casti, Complexity 1 (no. 5), 7 (1995/96); N. Johnson et al., Physica A 256, 230 (1998); D. Challet and Y.-C. Zhang, ibid. 246, 407 (1997); ibid. 256, 514 (1998).
18. R. E. Lucas, Econometrica 46, 1429 (1978).
19. W. B. Arthur, J. H. Holland, B. LeBaron, R. Palmer, Paul Tayler, in (2), p. 15; W. B. Arthur, Complexity 1 (no. 1), 20 (1995).
20. W. B. Arthur, J. H. Holland, B. LeBaron, R. Palmer, Paul Tayler, in (2), p. 15; W. B. Arthur, Complexity 1 (no. 1), 20 (1995).
21. See K. Lindgren's classic paper in Artificial Life II, C. G. Langton, C. Taylor, J. D. Farmer, S. Rasmussen, Eds. (Addison-Wesley, Reading, MA, 1991), p. 295; H. P. Young, Econometrica 61, 57 (1993); L. E. Blume, in (2), p. 425; B. A. Huberman and N. S. Glance, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 90, 7716 (1993).
22. See K. Lindgren's classic paper in Artificial Life II, C. G. Langton, C. Taylor, J. D. Farmer, S. Rasmussen, Eds. (Addison-Wesley, Reading, MA, 1991), p. 295; H. P. Young, Econometrica 61, 57 (1993); L. E. Blume, in (2), p. 425; B. A. Huberman and N. S. Glance, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 90, 7716 (1993).
23. See K. Lindgren's classic paper in Artificial Life II, C. G. Langton, C. Taylor, J. D. Farmer, S. Rasmussen, Eds. (Addison-Wesley, Reading, MA, 1991), p. 295; H. P. Young, Econometrica 61, 57 (1993); L. E. Blume, in (2), p. 425; B. A. Huberman and N. S. Glance, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 90, 7716 (1993).
24. See K. Lindgren's classic paper in Artificial Life II, C. G. Langton, C. Taylor, J. D. Farmer, S. Rasmussen, Eds. (Addison-Wesley, Reading, MA, 1991), p. 295; H. P. Young, Econometrica 61, 57 (1993); L. E. Blume, in (2), p. 425; B. A. Huberman and N. S. Glance, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 90, 7716 (1993).
25. R. Marimon, E. McGrattan, T. J. Sargent, J. Econ. Dyn. Control 14, 329 (1990); M. Shubik, in (2), p. 263; W. A. Brock and P. de Lima, in Handbook of Statistics 12: Finance, G. S. Maddala, H. Rao, H. Vinod, Eds. (North-Holland, Amsterdam, 1995).
26. R. Marimon, E. McGrattan, T. J. Sargent, J. Econ. Dyn. Control 14, 329 (1990); M. Shubik, in (2), p. 263; W. A. Brock and P. de Lima, in Handbook of Statistics 12: Finance, G. S. Maddala, H. Rao, H. Vinod, Eds. (North-Holland, Amsterdam, 1995).
27. R. Marimon, E. McGrattan, T. J. Sargent, J. Econ. Dyn. Control 14, 329 (1990); M. Shubik, in (2), p. 263; W. A. Brock and P. de Lima, in Handbook of Statistics 12: Finance, G. S. Maddala, H. Rao, H. Vinod, Eds. (North-Holland, Amsterdam, 1995).
28. T. J. Sargent, Bounded Rationality in Macroeconomics (Clarendon Press, Oxford, 1993); D. A. Lane and R. Maxfield, in (2), p. 169; V. M. Darley and S. A. Kauffman, in (2), p. 45.
29. D. C. North, in (2), p. 223.
30. Y. M. Ioannides, in (2), p. 129; A. P. Kirman, in (2), p. 491; L. Tesfatsion, in (2), p. 533.
31. P. Bak, K. Chen, J. Scheinkman, M. Woodford, Ric. Econ. 47, 3 (1993); A. Leijonhufvud, in (2), p. 321.
32. R. Axelrod, Am. Pol. Sci. Rev. 80, 1095 (1986); K. Kollman, J. H. Miller, S. E. Page, in (2), p. 461.
33. I thank J. Casti and S. Durlauf for comments on this article.