메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 9, Issue 4, 1999, Pages 261-283

Can we predict the future food production? A sensitivity analysis

Author keywords

Environmental degradation; Food production; Global change and climatic change

Indexed keywords

ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION; FOOD PRODUCTION; FORECASTING METHOD; GLOBAL CHANGE;

EID: 0033486253     PISSN: 09593780     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/S0959-3780(99)00022-9     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (35)

References (51)
  • 2
    • 0003400491 scopus 로고
    • Food and agriculture in Polestar, Part 1: Technical description of the crop, biomass, and livestock demand accounts
    • Stockholm Environment Institute 40p.
    • Bartholomew, R., Shaw, R.W., Leach, G., 1995a. Food and agriculture in Polestar, Part 1: Technical description of the crop, biomass, and livestock demand accounts. Stockholm Environment Institute, Polestar Series Technical Document, 40p.
    • (1995) Polestar Series Technical Document
    • Bartholomew, R.1    Shaw, R.W.2    Leach, G.3
  • 3
    • 0003400491 scopus 로고
    • Food and agriculture in Polestar, Part 2: Technical description of the land resource, supply accounts
    • Stockholm Environment Institute 77p.
    • Bartholomew, R., Shaw, R.W., Leach, G., 1995b. Food and agriculture in Polestar, Part 2: Technical description of the land resource, supply accounts. Stockholm Environment Institute, Polestar Series Technical Document, 77p.
    • (1995) Polestar Series Technical Document
    • Bartholomew, R.1    Shaw, R.W.2    Leach, G.3
  • 4
    • 0002527663 scopus 로고
    • Nature's limits
    • L. Starke. New York, USA: W.W. Norton & Company
    • Brown L. Nature's limits. Starke L. State of the World 1995. 1995;3-20 W.W. Norton & Company, New York, USA.
    • (1995) State of the World 1995 , pp. 3-20
    • Brown, L.1
  • 5
    • 0042674749 scopus 로고
    • Population projections
    • World Bank
    • Bulatao, R. et al., 1989. Population projections. World Bank, Working Paper 5328-5331.
    • (1989) Working Paper , pp. 5328-5331
    • Bulatao, R.1
  • 6
    • 0009601711 scopus 로고
    • An introduction to the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification
    • CCD Geneva, Switzerland.
    • CCD, 1995. An introduction to the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification. The Interim Secretariat for the UN Convention to Combat Desertification, Geneva, Switzerland.
    • (1995) The Interim Secretariat for the UN Convention to Combat Desertification
  • 7
    • 0028255746 scopus 로고
    • World food security: Prospects and trends
    • Chen R.S., Kates R.W. World food security: prospects and trends. Food Policy. 19(2):1994;192-208.
    • (1994) Food Policy , vol.19 , Issue.2 , pp. 192-208
    • Chen, R.S.1    Kates, R.W.2
  • 9
    • 0029148702 scopus 로고
    • Population growth and Earth's human carrying capacity
    • Cohen J.E. Population growth and Earth's human carrying capacity. Science. 369:1995;341-346.
    • (1995) Science , vol.369 , pp. 341-346
    • Cohen, J.E.1
  • 10
    • 0030885275 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Will erosion threaten agricultural productivity?
    • 29-31.
    • Crosson, P.R., 1997. Will erosion threaten agricultural productivity? Environment 9 (8), 4-9, 29-31.
    • (1997) Environment , vol.9 , Issue.8 , pp. 4-9
    • Crosson, P.R.1
  • 11
    • 0004045781 scopus 로고
    • Resources and global food prospects
    • The World Bank, Washington DC, 122p.
    • Crosson, P.R., Anderson, J.R., 1992. Resources and global food prospects. World Bank Paper no. 184, The World Bank, Washington DC, 122p.
    • (1992) World Bank Paper No. 184
    • Crosson, P.R.1    Anderson, J.R.2
  • 12
    • 0028248915 scopus 로고
    • Demand and supply: Trends in global agriculture
    • Crosson P.R., Anderson J.R. Demand and supply: trends in global agriculture. Food Policy. 19(2):1994;105-119.
    • (1994) Food Policy , vol.19 , Issue.2 , pp. 105-119
    • Crosson, P.R.1    Anderson, J.R.2
  • 14
    • 0031107095 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Can large-scale environmental migrations be predicted?
    • Döös, B.R., 1997. Can large-scale environmental migrations be predicted? Global Environmental Change 7 (1), 41-61.
    • (1997) Global Environmental Change , vol.7 , Issue.1 , pp. 41-61
    • Döös, B.R.1
  • 15
    • 0009586650 scopus 로고
    • A reconnaissance study of changes in settlement and related non-agricultural land use in Bangladesh 1952-1974
    • FAO/UNDP UN Food and Agricultural Organization, Rome, Italy.
    • FAO/UNDP, 1981. A reconnaissance study of changes in settlement and related non-agricultural land use in Bangladesh 1952-1974, Land Use Policy Project (BCD/78/014), UN Food and Agricultural Organization, Rome, Italy.
    • (1981) Land Use Policy Project (BCD/78/014)
  • 16
    • 0009615314 scopus 로고
    • FAO UN Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome, Italy (On diskette).
    • FAO, AGROSTAT-PC, Version 1:1., 1990. UN Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome, Italy (On diskette).
    • (1990) AGROSTAT-PC, Version 1:1.
  • 17
    • 0004325252 scopus 로고
    • FAO Food and Agricultural Organization, Rome, Italy, 306p.
    • FAO, 1993. The state of food and agriculture 1993, Food and Agricultural Organization, Rome, Italy, 306p.
    • (1993) The State of Food and Agriculture 1993
  • 18
    • 0003927012 scopus 로고
    • FAO In: Alexandratos, N. (Ed.), Wiley, Chichester, UK, 488p.
    • FAO, 1995. World Agriculture Towards 2010. In: Alexandratos, N. (Ed.), Wiley, Chichester, UK, 488p.
    • (1995) World Agriculture Towards 2010.
  • 20
    • 0003533769 scopus 로고
    • The year without a summer? World Climate in 1816
    • 576p.
    • Harrington, C.R. (Ed.), 1992. The year without a summer? World Climate in 1816. Canadian Museum of Nature, 576p.
    • (1992) Canadian Museum of Nature
    • Harrington, C.R.1
  • 21
    • 0009557187 scopus 로고
    • International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, WP-93-40, 35p.
    • Heilig, G.K., 1993. How many people can be fed on Earth? International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, WP-93-40, 35p.
    • (1993) How Many People Can be Fed on Earth?
    • Heilig, G.K.1
  • 24
    • 0009628068 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A Synthesis of Global Change and Terrestrial Ecosystems (GCTE)
    • IGBP In: Walker, B., Steffen, W. (Eds.) 32p.
    • IGBP, 1997. A Synthesis of Global Change and Terrestrial Ecosystems (GCTE). In: Walker, B., Steffen, W. (Eds.), IGBP Science, No. 1, 32p.
    • (1997) IGBP Science, No. 1
  • 27
    • 0003502310 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The Regional Impacts of Climate Change - An Assessment of the Vulnerability
    • IPCC In: Watson, R.T., Zinyowera, M.C., Moss, R.H., Dokken, D.J. (Eds.) Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 517p.
    • IPCC, 1998. In: Watson, R.T., Zinyowera, M.C., Moss, R.H., Dokken, D.J. (Eds.), The Regional Impacts of Climate Change - An Assessment of the Vulnerability, A Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 517p.
    • (1998) A Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
  • 28
    • 0028158974 scopus 로고
    • Constraints on the expansion of the global food supply
    • Kendall H.W., Pimentel D. Constraints on the expansion of the global food supply. Ambio. 23(1):1994;198-205.
    • (1994) Ambio , vol.23 , Issue.1 , pp. 198-205
    • Kendall, H.W.1    Pimentel, D.2
  • 30
    • 0009601161 scopus 로고
    • Global land and food in the 21st century
    • Stockholm Environment Institute 90p.
    • Leach, G., 1995. Global land and food in the 21st century. Stockholm Environment Institute, Polestar Series Report no. 5, 90p.
    • (1995) Polestar Series Report No. 5
    • Leach, G.1
  • 31
    • 0009599827 scopus 로고
    • Collected Letters
    • 25 April Swets and Zeitlinger, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
    • van Leeuwenhook, A., 1948. Collected Letters. Letter 43, 25 April 1679, Vol. 3. Swets and Zeitlinger, Amsterdam, the Netherlands, pp. 4-35.
    • (1679) Letter 43 , vol.3 , pp. 4-35
    • Van Leeuwenhook, A.1
  • 32
    • 0004154108 scopus 로고
    • University of Washington Press, Seattle, USA, 227p.
    • Lorenz, E.N., 1995. The Essence of Chaos. University of Washington Press, Seattle, USA, 227p.
    • (1995) The Essence of Chaos.
    • Lorenz, E.N.1
  • 33
    • 0027038087 scopus 로고
    • A new strategy for feeding a crowded planet
    • 32-39.
    • Norse, D., 1992. A new strategy for feeding a crowded planet. Environment 34 (5), 6-11, 32-39.
    • (1992) Environment , vol.34 , Issue.5 , pp. 6-11
    • Norse, D.1
  • 34
    • 0002711058 scopus 로고
    • Agriculture, land use and degradation
    • In: Dooge, J.C.I., Goodman, G.T., la Rivière, J. W.M. (Eds.) Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK
    • Norse, D., James, C., Skinner, B.J., Zhao, Q., 1992. Agriculture, land use and degradation. In: Dooge, J.C.I., Goodman, G.T., la Rivière, J. W.M. (Eds.), An Agenda of Science for Environment and Development into the 21st Century. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp. 79-89.
    • (1992) An Agenda of Science for Environment and Development into the 21st Century , pp. 79-89
    • Norse, D.1    James, C.2    Skinner, B.J.3    Zhao, Q.4
  • 35
    • 0002737717 scopus 로고
    • The global extent of soil degradation
    • In: Greenland, D.J., Szaboles, T. (Eds.) Commonwealth Agricultural Bureau International, Wallingford, UK.
    • Oldeman, L.R. 1994. The global extent of soil degradation. In: Greenland, D.J., Szaboles, T. (Eds.), Soil Resilience and Sustainable Land. Commonwealth Agricultural Bureau International, Wallingford, UK.
    • (1994) Soil Resilience and Sustainable Land.
    • Oldeman, L.R.1
  • 36
    • 0009557301 scopus 로고
    • Global assessment of soil degradation
    • United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), Nairobi, Kenya and International Soil Reference and Information Centre (ISRIC), Wageningen, the Netherlands.
    • Oldeman, L.R., Hakkeling, R.T.A., Sambroek, W.G., 1991. Global assessment of soil degradation. 2nd Revised Edition. United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), Nairobi, Kenya and International Soil Reference and Information Centre (ISRIC), Wageningen, the Netherlands.
    • (1991) 2nd Revised Edition
    • Oldeman, L.R.1    Hakkeling, R.T.A.2    Sambroek, W.G.3
  • 37
    • 0009617970 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The World Food Situation: Recent Developments
    • International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) International Centres Week, Washington DC, USA.
    • Pinstrup-Andersen, P., Pandya-Lorch, R., Rosegrant, M.W., 1997. The World Food Situation: Recent Developments, Emerging Issues and Long-Term Prospects. International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) International Centres Week, Washington DC, USA.
    • (1997) Emerging Issues and Long-Term Prospects
    • Pinstrup-Andersen, P.1    Pandya-Lorch, R.2    Rosegrant, M.W.3
  • 40
    • 0028181936 scopus 로고
    • Potential impact of climate change on food supply
    • Rosenzweig C.E., Parry M.L. Potential impact of climate change on food supply. Nature. 367:1994;133-138.
    • (1994) Nature , vol.367 , pp. 133-138
    • Rosenzweig, C.E.1    Parry, M.L.2
  • 41
    • 0030609240 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Linking various apects of atmospheric change through a systems analysis of food
    • Shaw R.W. Linking various apects of atmospheric change through a systems analysis of food. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment. 46:1997;113-133.
    • (1997) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment , vol.46 , pp. 113-133
    • Shaw, R.W.1
  • 42
  • 44
    • 0026312607 scopus 로고
    • Agriculture and food systems
    • In: Jäger, J., Ferguson, H.L. (Eds.), Climate Change Cambridge University Prees, Cambridge, UK, 578p.
    • Swaminathan, M.S., 1991. Agriculture and food systems. In: Jäger, J., Ferguson, H.L. (Eds.), Climate Change, Proceedings of the Second Climate Conference. Cambridge University Prees, Cambridge, UK, 578p.
    • (1991) Proceedings of the Second Climate Conference
    • Swaminathan, M.S.1
  • 46
    • 85052460905 scopus 로고
    • The second RCA appraisal
    • US Department of Agriculture US Department of Agriculture, Washington DC, USA.
    • US Department of Agriculture, 1990. The second RCA appraisal. USDA Miscellaneous Publications 1482, US Department of Agriculture, Washington DC, USA.
    • (1990) USDA Miscellaneous Publications 1482
  • 47
    • 0003453690 scopus 로고
    • How Much Land Can Ten Billion People Spare for Nature?
    • Ames, Iowa, USA, Task Force Report, no. 121, 64p.
    • Waggoner, P.E., 1994. How Much Land Can Ten Billion People Spare for Nature? Council for Agricultural Science and Technology. Ames, Iowa, USA, Task Force Report, no. 121, 64p.
    • (1994) Council for Agricultural Science and Technology.
    • Waggoner, P.E.1
  • 48
    • 0002429591 scopus 로고
    • Uncertainties and implications for modeling crop response to climate change
    • In: Kaiser, H.M., Drennen, T.E. (Eds.) St Lucie Press, Delray Beach, Florida, USA
    • Wolfe, D.W., Erickson, J.D., 1993. Uncertainties and implications for modeling crop response to climate change. In: Kaiser, H.M., Drennen, T.E. (Eds.), Agricultural Dimensions of Global Climate Change. St Lucie Press, Delray Beach, Florida, USA, pp. 153-178.
    • (1993) Agricultural Dimensions of Global Climate Change , pp. 153-178
    • Wolfe, D.W.1    Erickson, J.D.2
  • 49
    • 0009599552 scopus 로고
    • The allocation of irrigated areas and production of agro-ecological zones
    • Food and Agricultural Organization, Rome, Italy.
    • Wong, I.F.T., 1980. The allocation of irrigated areas and production of agro-ecological zones. Consultant's Working Paper No. 7, FAO/UNFPA Project INT/75/P13, Food and Agricultural Organization, Rome, Italy.
    • (1980) Consultant's Working Paper No. 7, FAO/UNFPA Project INT/75/P13
    • Wong, I.F.T.1
  • 51
    • 0009617971 scopus 로고
    • Unpublished report of the Statistics Division
    • Food and Agricultural Organization, Rome, Italy.
    • Zarka, S., 1981. Unpublished report of the Statistics Division. Food and Agricultural Organization, Rome, Italy. Information made use of by Waggoner (1994).
    • (1981) Information Made Use of by Waggoner
    • Zarka, S.1


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.