Adapting a patch model to simulate the sensitivity of Central-Canadian boreal ecosystems to climate variability

Journal of Biogeography

Volumn 26, Issue 5, 1999, Pages 1101-1113

  Price, David T ^a   Halliwell, D H ^a   Apps, M J ^a   Peng, C H ^a,b  

^a NORTHERN FORESTRY CENTRE   (Canada)

^b ONTARIO FOREST RESEARCH INSTITUTE   (Canada)

Author keywords

Boreal forest; Climate variability; Climatic change; Drought; FORSKA2; Patch model; Vegetation dynamics

Indexed keywords

BOREAL FOREST; CLIMATE EFFECT; COMMUNITY COMPOSITION; ECOSYSTEM MODELING;

EID: 0033452036     PISSN: 03050270     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1046/j.1365-2699.1999.00331.x     Document Type: Article

References (44)

1. Atmospheric Environment Service (AES) (1983) Canadian climate normals, 1951-80, temperature and precipitation, Prairie Provinces, Environment Canada, Downsview, Ontario.
2. Baxter, G.J. (1995) Climate change and fire danger. MSc Thesis, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta.
3. Bergeron, Y. & Flannigan, M.D. (1995) Predicting the effects of climate change on fire frequency in the southeastern Canadian boreal forest. Water, Air Soil Pollution, 82, 437-444.
4. Boisvert, J.B., Hayhoe, H.N. & Dube, P.A. (1990) Improving the estimation of global solar radiation across Canada. Agric. For. Meterol. 52, 275-286.
5. Botkin, D.B. & Nisbet, R.A. (1992) Forest response to climate change: effects of parameter estimation and choice of weather patterns on the reliability of projections. Clim. Change 20, 87-111.
6. Botkin, D.B., Janak, J.F. & Wallis, J.R. (1972) Some ecological consequences of a computer model of forest growth. J. Ecol. 60, 849-872.
7. Bristow, K.I. (1987) On solving the surface energy balance equation for surface temperature. Agric. For. Meterol. 39, 49-54.
8. Bugmann, H.K.M. & Solomon, A.M. (1995) The use of a European forest model in North America: a study of ecosystem response to climate gradients. J. Biogeogr. 22, 477-484.
9. Bugmann, H.K.M., Xiaodong, Y., Sykes, M.T., Martin, P., Lindner, M., Desanker, P.V. & Cumming, S.G. (1996) A comparison of forest gap models: Model structure and behaviour. Clim. Change 34, 289-313.
10. Burns, R.M. & Honkala, B.H. (1990) Silvics of North America: Agriculture Handbook 654, 1 and 2. USDA Forest Service, Washington, D.C.
11. Campbell, G.S. (1985) Soil physics with BASIC: transport models for soil-plant systems. Elsevier, Amsterdam.
12. Federer, C.A. (1982) Transpirational supply and demand: plant, soil and atmospheric effects evaluated by simulation. Water Resources Res. 18, 355-362.
13. Fischlin, A., Bugmann, H. & Gyalistras, D. (1995) Sensitivity of a forest ecosystem model to climate parameterization schemes. Environ. Poll. 87, 267-282.
14. Fisheries and Environment Canada. (1978) Hydrological atlas of Canada. Surveys and Mapping Branch, Dept. Energy, Mines and Resources, Ottawa
15. Flannigan, M.D. & Van Wagner, C.E. (1991) Climate change and wildfire in Canada. Can. J. For. Res. 21, 66-72.
16. Hogg, E.H. & Hurdle, P.A. (1995) The aspen parkland in western Canada: a dry-climate analogue for the future boreal forest? Water, Air, Soil Poll. 82, 391-400.
17. Hogg, E.H. (1994) Climate and the southern limit of the western Canadian boreal forest. Can. J. For. Res. 24, 1835-1845.
18. Karjalainen, T. & Kellomäki, S. (1995) Simulation of forest and wood product carbon budget under a changing climate in Finland. Water, Air, Soil Poll. 82, 309-320.
19. Koch, G.W., Scholes, R.J., Steffen, W.L., Walker, B.H. & Vitousek, P.M. (1995) The IGBP terrestrial transects: science plan. IGBP Report no. 36. International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme, Stockholm.
20. Lasch, P. & Lindner, M. (1995) Application of two forest succession models at sites in north east Germany. J. Biogeogr. 22, 485-492.
21. Lauenroth, W.K. (1996) Application of patch models to examine regional sensitivity to climate change. Clim. Change, 34, 155-160.
22. Leemans, R. & Prentice, I.C. (1989) FORSKA2, a general forest succession model. Meddelanden frán Växtbiologiska Institutionen 1989, 2.
23. Lindner, M., Lasch, P. & Cramer, W. 1996) Application of a forest succession model to a continentality gradient through central Europe. Clim. Change, 34, 191-199.
24. Lindner, M., Bugmann, H., Lasch, P., Flechsig, M. & Cramer, W. (1947) Regional impacts of climatic change on forests in the state of Brandenburg, Germany. Agric. For. Meteorol. 84, 123-135.
25. McKay, D.C. & Morris, R.J. (1985) Solar radiation data analyses for Canada 1967-76, 4: The Prairie Provinces. Atmospheric Environment Service, Downsview, Ontario.
26. McKenney, M.S. & Rosenberg, N.J. (1993) Sensitivity of some potential evapotranspirarion estimation methods to climate change. Agric. For. Meteorol. 64, 81-110.
27. Overpeck, J.T., Rind, D. & Goldberg, R. (1990) Climate-induced changes in forest disturbance and vegetation. Nature, 343, 51-53.
28. Pastor, J. & Post, W.M. (1985) Development of a linked forest productivity soil process model. ORNL 2455. Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge, Tennessee.
29. Peng, C.H., Apps, M.J., Price, D.T., Nalder, I.A. & Halliwell, D.H. (1998) Simulating carbon dynamics along the Boreal Forest Transect Case Study (BFTCS) in central Canada. 1 Model testing. Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 12, 381-392.
30. Prentice, I.C., Sykes, M.T. & Cramer, W. (1993) A simulation model for the transient effects of climate change on forest landscapes. Ecol. Modelling, 65, 51-70.
31. Price, D.T. & Apps, M.J. (1995) The Boreal Forest Transect Case Study: global change effects on ecosystem processes and carbon dynamics in Canada. Water, Air, Soil Pollution, 82, 203-214.
32. Price, D.T. & Apps, M.J. (1996) Boreal forest responses to climate-change scenarios along an ecoclimatic transect in central Canada. Clim. Change, 34, 179-190.
33. Price, D.T., Apps, M.J., Kurz, W.A., Prentice, I.C. & Sykes, M.T. (1993) Simulating the carbon budget of the Canadian boreal forest using an integrated suite of process-based models. Proceedings of International Workshop 'Forest Growth Models and Their Uses' (ed. by C.-H. Ung), pp. 251-264. Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Sainte Foy, Quebec.
34. Price, D.T., Peng, C.H., Apps, M.J. & Halliwell, D.H. (1999) Simulating effects of climate change on boreal ecosystem carbon pools in central Canada. J. Biogeogr. 26, in press.
35. Priestley, C.H.B. & Taylor, R.J. (1972) On the assessment of surface heat flux and evaporation using large-scale parameters. Monthly Weather Rev. 100, 81-92.
36. Samani, Z.A. & Hargreaves, G.H. (1985) Water requirements, drought and extreme rainfall manual for the United States. International Irrig. Center, Utah State University, Logan, Utah.
37. Sellers, P., Hall, P., Margolis, H., Kelly, B., Baldocchi, D., den Hartog, G., Cihlar, J., Ryan, M.G., Goodison, B., Crill, P., Ranson, K.J., Lettenmaier, D. & Wickland, D.E. (1995) The Boreal Ecosystem-Atmosphere Study (BOREAS): an overview and early results from the 1994 field year. Bull. Am. Meterol. Soc. 76, 1549-1577.
38. Shugart, H.H. & Prentice, I.C. (1992) Individual-tree-based models of forest dynamics and their application in global change research. A system analysis of the global boreal forest (ed. by H. H. Shugart, R. Leemans and G. B. Bonan), pp. 313-333. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
39. Shugart, H.H. (1984) A theory of forest dynamics. Springer-Verlag, New York.
40. Stocks, B.J., Lee, B.S. & Martell, D.L. (1996) Some potential carbon budget implications of fire management in the boreal forest. Forest ecosystem, forest management and the global carbon cycle (ed. by M. J. Apps and D. T. Price), pp. 89-96. Springer-Verlag, Berlin.
41. Solomon, A.M. & Bartlein, P.J. (1992) Past and future climate change: response by mixed deciduous-coniferous forest ecosystems in northern Michigan. Can. J. For. Res. 22, 1727-1738.
42. Suffling, R. (1995) Can disturbance determine vegetation distribution during climate warming? A boreal test. J. Biogeogr. 22, 501-508.
43. Sykes, M.T. & Prentice, I.C. (1995) Boreal forest futures: modelling the controls on tree species range limits and transient responses to climate change. Water, Air, Soil Poll. 82, 415-428.
44. Wilks, D.S. (1991) Adapting stochastic weather generation algorithms for climate change studies. Clim. Change, 22, 67-84.