Forecasting on British election night 1997

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A: Statistics in Society

Volumn 162, Issue 2, 1999, Pages 211-226

  Brown, P J ^a   Firth, D ^b   Payne, Clive D ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF KENT   (United Kingdom)

^b NUFFIELD COLLEGE   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

British general election; Ecological regression; Generalized ridge regression; Prediction; Pseudodata augmentation

Indexed keywords

EID: 0033426339     PISSN: 09641998     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/1467-985X.00131     Document Type: Article

References (18)

1. Allen, D. M. (1974) The relationship between variable selection and data augmentation and a method of prediction. Technometrics, 16, 125-127.
2. Brown, P. J. (1993) Measurement, Regression and Calibration. Oxford: Clarendon.
3. Brown, P. and Payne, C. (1975) Election night forecasting (with discussion). J. R. Statist. Soc. A, 138, 463-498.
4. -(1984) Forecasting the 1983 British General Election. Statistician, 33, 217-228.
5. -(1986) Aggregate data, ecological regression, and voting transitions. J. Am. Statist. Ass., 81, 452-460.
6. Cleave, N., Brown, P. J. and Payne, C. D. (1995) Evaluation of methods for ecological inference. J. R. Statist. Soc. A, 158, 55-72.
7. Curtice, J. and Payne, C. (1995) Forecasting the 1992 election: the BBC experience. In Political Communications: the British General Election of 1992 (eds I. Crewe and B. Gosschalk). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
8. Curtice, J. and Steed, M. (1992) Appendix 2: The results analysed. In The British General Election of 1992 (eds D. Butler and D. Kavanagh). London: Macmillan.
9. Good, I. J. (1950) Probability and the Weighing of Evidence. London: Griffin.
10. Market Research Society (1994) The Opinion Polls and the 1992 Election: a Report to the Market Research Society. London: Market Research Society.
11. Marquardt, D. W. (1970) Generalised inverses, ridge regression, biased linear estimation and nonlinear estimation. Technometrics, 12, 591-612.
12. Moon, N. (1998) Dealing with non-response with a political component. In New Directions in Censuses and Surveys. Ottawa: Statistics Canada.
13. Moon, N. and McGregor, R. (1992) Exit polling: developing a technique. J. Markt Res. Soc., 34, 257-268.
14. Payne, C. D. (1992) Statistical methods for election forecasting in the United Kingdom, 1970-1990. In British Elections and Parties Yearbook 1992 (eds P. Norris, I. Crewe, D. Denver and D. Broughton). Hemel Hempstead: Harvester Wheatsheaf. Payne, C. D. and Brown, P. J. (1981) Forecasting the British election to the European Parliament. Br. J. Polit. Sci., 11, 235-245.
15. Payne, C. D. (1992) Statistical methods for election forecasting in the United Kingdom, 1970-1990. In British Elections and Parties Yearbook 1992 (eds P. Norris, I. Crewe, D. Denver and D. Broughton). Hemel Hempstead: Harvester Wheatsheaf. Payne, C. D. and Brown, P. J. (1981) Forecasting the British election to the European Parliament. Br. J. Polit. Sci., 11, 235-245.
16. Rallings, C. and Thrasher, M. (1995) Media Guide to the New Parliamentary Constituencies. London: BBC-ITN-PA News-Sky.
17. Rossiter, D. J., Johnston, R. J. and Pattie, C. J. (1997) Estimating the partisanship impact of redistricting in Great Britain. Br. J. Polit. Sci., 27, 319-331.
18. Thomsen, S. R. (1987) Danish Elections 1920-1979: a Logit Approach to Ecological Analysis and Inference. Århus: Politica.